April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Much like with snow falling... it would be sort of interesting to have a time lapse of the trees looking fuller on a day like today.    They look more full just since yesterday.    They are playing catch up fast now.   

 

[Deweydog]

Our grass is taller today than it was yesterday.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Pretty good agreement between the 12z GFS/GEM/EURO about a ridge developing just offshore at day 10.

 

[Jesse]

Pretty good agreement between the 12z GFS/GEM/EURO about a ridge developing just offshore at day 10.

 

 

Another round of record heat????????

[TT-SEA]

Lower heights overall. Also a little faster with the ULL moving inland Thursday/Friday.

 

I was talking about the progression later in the weekend and into next week.  

 

The EPS show 850mb temps warming by early next week and then its warm for the rest of the run through day 15. 

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

68 at SEA and 72 in North Bend now.   

 

Today is still not as warm as it was in early March though.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty much a nightmare scenario unfolding this week. Absolutely worst case.

[Kayla]

[TT-SEA]

Pretty much a nightmare scenario unfolding this week. Absolutely worst case.

 

I will have nightmares over the temperature at 4 a.m.    

 

Its very important!  

[Jesse]

That’s okay, you can leave it right where it is thank you.

Maybe budge it even a little further west like the EPS hints at.

[Phil]

In a way, we’re about to repeat the pattern progression that occurred from mid-January into mid-February, when the AAM removal process began in Eurasia. Only we have seasonal changes in the eastern hemispheric mechanics to deal with now.

 

You could say we’re in the “mid-January” portion of the cycle now. This western ridge/+PNA cell probably has several weeks to run. It might even take until late May for peripheral boundary conditions to force a pattern change. It could happen sooner, but I wouldn’t bet on it just yet. Not until -AAM in the WHEM subtropics solidifies.

[Jesse]

In a way, we’re about to repeat the pattern progression that occurred from mid-January into mid-February, when the AAM removal process began in Eurasia. Only we have seasonal changes in the eastern hemispheric mechanics to deal with now.

 

You could say we’re in the “mid-January” portion of the cycle now. This western ridge/+PNA cell probably has several weeks to run. It might even take until late May for peripheral boundary conditions to force a pattern change. It could happen sooner, but I wouldn’t bet on it just yet. Not until -AAM in the WHEM subtropics solidifies.

I am sure we will get the several weeks of ridging now and still somehow pull off a hot summer. Best of both worlds!

[TT-SEA]

In a way, we’re about to repeat the pattern progression that occurred from mid-January into mid-February, when the AAM removal process began in Eurasia. Only we have seasonal changes in the eastern hemispheric mechanics to deal with now.

 

You could say we’re in the “mid-January” portion of the AAM propagation cycle now. This western ridge/+PNA cell probably has several weeks to run. It might even take until late May for peripheral boundary conditions to force a pattern change. It could happen sooner, but I wouldn’t bet on it just yet. Not until -AAM in the WHEM subtropics solidifies.

 

I like the sound of this.   Even though we might pay the price in June.    Although a trough in June can be quite pleasant if there is cold air aloft and the base of the trough is down in CA.

[Phil]

I like the sound of this. Even though we might pay the price in June.

Maybe, but that doesn’t mean the entire month of June will be troughy. There should be a hefty niña stretch in there somewhere, but much like the upcoming ridging, it looks like a temporary/subseasonal type pattern rather than a background state. We haven’t seen a stable convective signature in the tropics in 2018, to date.

 

BTW, remember when you thought the entire spring would be a washout with no nice weather until June?

 

#ToldYouSo

 

[TT-SEA]

Maybe, but that doesn’t mean the entire month of June will be troughy. There should be a hefty niña stretch in there somewhere, but much like the upcoming ridging, it looks like a temporary/subseasonal type pattern rather than a background state. We haven’t seen a stable convective signature in the tropics in 2018, to date.

 

BTW, remember when you thought the entire spring would be a washout with no nice weather until June?

 

#ToldYouSo

 

 

 

It got so bad during the first 17 days of April that nice weather became more likely... just based on my knowledge of local weather history.  

[Front Ranger]

Starting to look like this spring might end up with more sunshine and less rainy days than usual most places. "Nice", as some say.

 

Hard to believe after all the gnashing of teeth the first couple weeks this month.

[Phil]

I am sure we will get the several weeks of ridging now and still somehow pull off a hot summer. Best of both worlds!

Lol. It’s hard to decipher this far in advance, but I’m guessing you’ll hate July, love August, and have mixed feelings about June. September is still in the veil.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Another round of record heat????????

Stay tuned!

[Phil]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

Lol. It’s hard to decipher this far in advance, but I’m guessing you’ll hate July, love August, and have mixed feelings about June. September is still in the veil.

Meh. We were supposed to be in the midst of a troughy last 2/3 of April right now according to predictions just a few weeks ago.

 

I don’t think anyone has a good grip on the pattern right now. Which means prepare for the default warmth of recent years and hope for the best.

[TT-SEA]

Starting to look like this spring might end up with more sunshine and less rainy days than usual most places. "Nice", as some say.

 

Hard to believe after all the gnashing of teeth the first couple weeks this month.

It has turned around for sure. Much more to my liking.

 

Looking at the daily rain detail for North Bend for 2018... a wet rest of spring and summer seems very unlikely. As opposed to years with lots of dry periods through mid April. Out longest streak until now has been 3 days on a couple occasions. This is a very localized outlook but it works most of the time for the region.

[Jesse]

It has turned around for sure. Much more to my liking.

 

Looking at the daily rain detail for North Bend for 2018... a wet rest of spring and summer seems very unlikely. As opposed to years with lots of dry periods through mid April. Out longest streak until now has been 3 days on a couple occasion. This is a very localized outlook but it works most of the time for the region.

Your longest dry streak this year has only been three days until now? That seems pretty hard to believe.

 

Btw if it’s true you don’t need to bombard me with maps, photos and spreadsheets. You can just tell me.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

Nice day.

[Front Ranger]

It has turned around for sure. Much more to my liking.

 

Looking at the daily rain detail for North Bend for 2018... a wet rest of spring and summer seems very unlikely. As opposed to years with lots of dry periods through mid April. Out longest streak until now has been 3 days on a couple occasion. This is very localized but it works most of the time.

 

I thought you were saying just last week that this dry stretch likely means a wet May?

 

SEA averages 29 days without measurable precip Mar-Apr. In 2017, they only had 14. In 2018, they've had 26 with a bunch more to come.

[TT-SEA]

Your longest dry streak this year has only been three days until now? That seems pretty hard to believe.

 

Btw if it’s true you don’t need to bombard me with maps, photos and spreadsheets. You can just tell me.

 

Yes.

 

Jan 1-3

Feb 10-12

Feb 19-21

Mar 10-12

Apr 18-20

 

That is it.    On Wednesday we will reach a 4-day dry streak for the first time in 2018.  

[TT-SEA]

This is not my data... this is from an official weather station and site in North Bend.    

 

[Phil]

Meh. We were supposed to be in the midst of a troughy last 2/3 of April right now according to predictions just a few weeks ago.

 

I don’t think anyone has a good grip on the pattern right now. Which means prepare for the default warmth of recent years and hope for the best.

Yeah, it’s never easy to make subseasonal forecasts between the final warming and the replacement of the Siberian High with the Monsoonal Trough (the latter has yet to occur/complete). Which is why I always throw in a few sneaky subtexts/qualifiers during these times.

 

My bust rate is always the highest during Spring. The models struggle too. Spring barriers for ENSO, changes in the frequency of the wavetrain which are unique by year, etc. Tough times.

[Front Ranger]

Yes.

 

Jan 1-3

Feb 10-12

Feb 19-21

Mar 10-12

Apr 18-20

 

That is it.    On Wednesday we will reach a 4-day dry streak for the first time in 2018.  

 

Crazy. SEA has had two 6+ day dry streaks. 

 

I'm starting to get the impression you live in an unusually wet microclimate...

[Jesse]

Yes.

 

Jan 1-3

Feb 10-12

Feb 19-21

Mar 10-12

Apr 18-20

 

That is it.    On Wednesday we will reach a 4-day dry streak for the first time in 2018.  

 

That's crazy. Down here, we are currently at day 7 for a trace or less.

 

Then there were 4 consecutive days with 0.00" March 28-31.

 

And 5 consecutive days with 0.00" February 4-8 (10 consecutive with no more than a trace 2/4-2/13).

[TT-SEA]

Crazy. SEA has had two 6+ day dry streaks.

 

I'm starting to get the impression you live in an unusually wet microclimate...

Again Jared... for the millionth time... the rain has been unusually persistent for my area. Based on the normal number of days in my area. When it gets ridiculous like this here then there is usually a reward here. And a reward here usually means a reward for everyone else too.

[Phil]

Crazy. SEA has had two 6+ day dry streaks.

 

I'm starting to get the impression you live in an unusually wet microclimate...

An unusually warm, wet, snowy, and sunny microclimate featuring both searing hot deck temperatures and overexposed sensors.

[Jesse]

Glad to see the GFS holding strong with the cooler/wetter weekend solution.

[Jesse]

An unusually warm, wet, snowy, and sunny microclimate featuring both searing hot deck temperatures and overexposed sensors.

 

And plants blasting color out of every orifice year round.

[TT-SEA]

An unusually warm, wet, snowy, and sunny microclimate featuring both searing hot deck temperatures and overexposed sensors.

East wind in the fall and winter can often make North Bend the warmest place in the state. Cold onshore flow can make us the snowiest place in the lowlands.

 

And my deck is very warm right now.

[TT-SEA]

And plants blasting color out of every orifice year round.

We took a turn backwards in terms of vegetation starting in mid February and are just starting to get back to normal now.

[TT-SEA]

69 at SEA and 75 in North Bend right now. We don't get the cooling effect of the north wind through the Sound on days like this and are often warmer being inland and more protected. That cuts both ways... sometimes the protection here traps clouds and moisture while Seattle is sunny and warmer.

[TT-SEA]

That's crazy. Down here, we are currently at day 7 for a trace or less.

 

Then there were 4 consecutive days with 0.00" March 28-31.

 

And 5 consecutive days with 0.00" February 4-8 (10 consecutive with no more than a trace 2/4-2/13).

It has been much worse than usual here. Making me believe it will be better than normal here for the next few months. And it's hard for it to better than normal here without dragging the rest of you along for the nice weather ride.