Phil Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 We started doing this in 2016, so why not continue the tradition? If anyone is interested, feel free to post a guess by May 5th @ 12AM PDT. Same cities as 2016 & 2017, except I added Denver this year for those in the intermountain west. Monthly anomalies, June - August, at these locations: SEAOLMPDXCQT (Downtown LA)DENDCA 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 What about Los Angeles and San Diego? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Vegas? Branson? Havre? Galveston? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Lol, come on guys. Embrace the unknown! BTW, this one actually will be graded. And updated monthly for good measure. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Lol, come on guys. Embrace the unknown! BTW, this one actually will be graded. And updated monthly for good measure.Are there going to be any prizes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Los Angeles is a complicated one, since downtown is usually 8-10 degrees warmer than the airport. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Los Angeles is a complicated one, since downtown is usually 8-10 degrees warmer than the airport.Sounds fun. Want me to replace EUG with LAX? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Sounds fun. Want me to replace EUG with LAX?Yes, that would be good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 I would argue that LAX is so heavily moderated by marine influence that it doesn't make for a very interesting summer forecast subject. The upper air patterns don't have much effect on the summer temperatures there. The spread between the warmest and coldest Augusts ever recorded is a measly 5 degrees. I'd suggest Downtown L.A. for its greater temperature range, and for its better representation of SoCal basin weather in general.What station would you recommend, specifically? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 What station would you recommend, specifically?KCQT is the one for Downtown L.A.. No idea how it got those letters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 KCQT is the one for Downtown L.A.. No idea how it got those letters.Alright, it’s in. Good luck! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 29, 2018 Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 Alright, it’s in. Good luck!How about adding PHX? It's a unique location and would test everybody's ability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 How about adding PHX? It's a unique location and would test everybody's ability.Unless others disagree, I think there’s more than enough in there now. Loads of potential for experimentation. We have four western stations, one central station, and one eastern station listed, so I think it fits the balance of the forum too. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 29, 2018 Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 Unless others disagree, I think there’s more than enough in there now. Loads of potential for experimentation. We have four western stations, one central station, and one eastern station listed, so I think it fits the balance of the forum too.Okay sounds good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 29, 2018 Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 Because it's near Hollywood, where legend has it that in the old days, you might see a cutie (C a QT) in the soda shop on the corner of Hollywood and Vine. (Fun Fact: Hollywood and Vine is an armpit nowadays.)I never knew that and that's hilarious. There are no shortage of cute or attractive women down there, that's for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 30, 2018 Report Share Posted April 30, 2018 I'm going to wait until May 4th to post my final numbers for all the cities but I want to give a preview into what I'm thinking for the PNW for the summer months Jun to Aug. Overall it should be another warmer than normal Jun to Aug time period. 2 out of the 3 months I have above average for all of the PNW. 1 month I have average with some parts of the PNW below average and some above average. There's a dividing line somewhere along the PNW. I'm not going to reveal the months yet and which month I feel will be the warmest but just wanted to give a little preview. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 30, 2018 For anyone interested in observing/studying the data beforehand, here are the links to the *real time* observations at each station. SEA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?wfo=&sid=KSEA&num=168 OLM: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KOLM PDX: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KPDX CQT: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KCQT DEN: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KDEN DCA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=Kdca Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 30, 2018 Report Share Posted April 30, 2018 For anyone interested in observing/studying the data beforehand, here are the links to the *real time* observations at each station.SEA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?wfo=&sid=KSEA&num=168PDX: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KPDXCQT: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KCQTDEN: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KDENDCA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KdcaThat's not all of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 30, 2018 That's not all of them.Sorry, just added Olympia. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Monthly anomalies, May - September, at these locations: SEAOLMPDXCQT (Downtown LA)DENDCA I'm not sure how much detail we are supposed to be predicting, but here are my predictions: SEA, OLM, and PDX will have a warmer and drier summer than normal. CQX will also be warmer than normal, but since it's already extremely dry there in summer, there isn't much that can be said as far as it being even drier than average. I'll go with average precipitation. DEN will be fairly normal as far as temperature and precipitation goes, but it will be warmer than average. The monsoon may get a late start, but should be closer to average as the summer progresses. DCA will be wetter than average, but a little warmer than average (but not that much). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 I'm not sure how much detail we are supposed to be predicting, but here are my predictions: SEA, OLM, and PDX will have a warmer and drier summer than normal. CQX will also be warmer than normal, but since it's already extremely dry there in summer, there isn't much that can be said as far as it being even drier than average. I'll go with average precipitation. DEN will be fairly normal as far as temperature and precipitation goes, but it will be warmer than average. The monsoon may get a late start, but should be closer to average as the summer progresses. DCA will be wetter than average, but a little warmer than average (but not that much).Thanks for sharing your thoughts. We usually guess the departure from average for each month at each location (in fahrenheit) then see who came the closest overall in the end. I’m still thinking about mine, as I’ve never forecasted for Denver or LA before. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 We usually guess the departure from average for each month at each location (in fahrenheit) then see who came the closest overall in the end. OK cool. Rounded to the nearest 10th I presume? I'm going with the warm side of things, but not record breaking heat in all locations mentioned. June SEA = +1.0OLM = +1.1PDX = +1.3CQT (Downtown LA) = +2.0DEN = +1.4DCA = +1.0 July SEA = +1.2OLM = +1.2PDX = +1.5CQT (Downtown LA) = +2.0DEN = +1.2DCA = +1.0 August SEA = +1.1OLM = +1.2PDX = +1.3CQT (Downtown LA) = +1.9DEN = +1.2DCA = +0.9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Awesome, good luck brother. I’ll drum mine up sometime tomorrow or Wednesday. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 Awesome, good luck brother. I’ll drum mine up sometime tomorrow or Wednesday.I will throw something together too once finals are over. After tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2018 Have a rough idea now. Will post when I get home tonight. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 4, 2018 Report Share Posted May 4, 2018 Pretty much all done with my numbers except for DCA. Going to work on them tonight and tomorrow before my submission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 4, 2018 Pretty much all done with my numbers except for DCA. Going to work on them tonight and tomorrow before my submission.Same here, except it’s CQT that’s giving me issues in my analog years. No consistency. Looks like I’ll have to try and predict how the coastal SSTAs will evolve to be successful with it. Will be done with my numbers by tomorrow for sure. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 4, 2018 Report Share Posted May 4, 2018 East Coast can have a marine layer too with low clouds and fog. Just not as persistent and famous as California's marine layer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 4, 2018 East Coast can have a marine layer too with low clouds and fog. Just not as persistent and famous as California's marine layer.Yeah, sometimes we get it during April/May, but with the Atlantic downstream it’s more difficult. We’ve only had one such episode this year, though..too much troughing and/or westerly flow in general w/ the Hudson Bay vortex. And once into mid/late summer, our coastal SSTs are usually into the 70s/80s (into the 90s over the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac). So at that point, the “marine layer” is really just a pool of low level humidity, since said SSTs will often be warmer than the antecedent air temperatures. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 4, 2018 Subject to minor changes. SEAJune: -0.2July: +2.5August: -0.75OLMJune: -0.75July: +1.5August: -1PDXJune: 0.0July: +2August: -0.5CQTJune: +1.5July: +2.5August: 0.0DENJune: +2.5July: +1August: 0.0DCAJune: +2July: 0.0August: +2.75 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 4, 2018 Report Share Posted May 4, 2018 Subject to minor changes. SEAJune: -0.2July: +2.5August: -0.75OLMJune: -0.75July: +1.5August: -1PDXJune: 0.0July: +2August: -0.5CQTJune: +1.5July: +2.5August: 0.0DENJune: +2.5July: +1August: 0.0DCAJune: +2July: 0.0August: +2.75 Here's mine at the moment. I'll look over the analog(s) again I'm using and will make some minor adjustments as well if I need to. SEAJune: -0.5July: +3.6August: +3.3 OLMJune: -0.1July: +3.8August: +2.9 PDXJune: +0.4July: +3.9August: +2.5 CQTJune: +1.7July: +3.7August: +3.0 DENJune: +3.5July: +1.9August: +1.0 DCAJune: +1.0July: -1.3August: +0.1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Is it just going to be me, Phil and heatsquall again? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Tweaked a few numbers and here is my final submission. Good luck to all those that participated! SEAJune: -0.5July: +3.6August: +3.3 OLMJune: -0.1July: +3.8August: +2.9 PDXJune: +0.3July: +4.0August: +2.5 CQTJune: +1.7July: +3.7August: +3.0 DENJune: +3.5July: +1.8August: +1.0 DCAJune: +1.0July: -1.3August: +0.1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Is it just going to be me, Phil and heatsquall again? Scott participated! But yeah, lots of scaredy cats this year. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Feel free to enter guesses over the weekend, BTW. No need for an arbitrary deadline for a seasonal forecast contest. We’re talking months here. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 5, 2018 Report Share Posted May 5, 2018 Is it just going to be me, Phil and heatsquall again? Scott participated! But yeah, lots of scaredy cats this year.Yeah Scott participated so at least there's somebody else other than the 3 of us. Mr Marine Layer, Deweydog, Eujunga, you all posted in this thread so why not enter the contest? I know it's hard to go first so at least now you have seen a few of our thoughts. Let's go! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 6, 2018 Report Share Posted May 6, 2018 Too many stations. Too lazy. Too stupid. I think our summer will be pretty average overall. July will prolly be pretty warm. August icebox killer (been watching Dexter). Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 6, 2018 Report Share Posted May 6, 2018 We started doing this in 2016, so why not continue the tradition? If anyone is interested, feel free to post a guess by May 5th @ 12AM PDT. Same cities as 2016 & 2017, except I added Denver this year for those in the intermountain west. Monthly anomalies, June - August, at these locations: SEAOLMPDXCQT (Downtown LA)DENDCA SEA: J: -0.8J: +2.1A: +3.2 OLM: J: -1.4J: +1.5A:+1.8 PDX J: +0.1J: +3.3A: +3.9 CQT: J: -1.3J: +0.4A: +1.0 DEN: J; +3.6J: +1.4A: -0.2 DCA: J: +1.9J; +0.7A: +1.3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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