Farmboy Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Two wrong models can definitely equal a right solution, by way of eventual compromise. Happens many times, though with major pattern changes one model generally leads the way.Ok, that's kind of along the lines of what I was thinking, that explains a lot, thankyou. So in this case, which model do you think is leading the way, if any? Are recent model developments indicative that we may NOT really be looking at too much of a major pattern shift? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 My wife asked me how Memorial Day was looking, commenting that she hopes the nice weather holds out until then. What should I do? Scold her for selfishly thinking of herself and her plans in our rainy climate. Must worry about the trees. All. The. Time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Sort of like a psychological analog to Darwinism. Fatten up the heat lover psyche until it’s all warm, cozy, and complacent, then go in for the kill. Gonna be lots of psychotic breaks in here when the worm turns. Drama! Troll. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Drama! Troll.2010 WAS pretty funny... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 2010 WAS pretty funny...I think it's remembered for more than it was on here. The second half of May and the first half of June was the worst of it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Being less than 5 minutes from work allows me to run home at lunch and enjoy a quiet lovely sunny yard. Nice. I can pretty much do that too being 9 to 10 minutes away but usually don't too often. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Was at Fort Ebby on Whidbey Island on Saturday afternoon. An absolutely gorgeous place. 4 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 FWIW... the new ECMWF weeklies are on board for a warm Memorial Day weekend. And maybe even warmer during the first weekend in June. Stays pretty warm until the middle of June per the latest ECMWF weeklies and then it shows some sort of troughing focused on the third week of June... but still depicts the same basic pattern we have now through the end of June (warm PNW and cool CA). Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Ok, that's kind of along the lines of what I was thinking, that explains a lot, thankyou. So in this case, which model do you think is leading the way, if any? Are recent model developments indicative that we may NOT really be looking at too much of a major pattern shift? Pretty weak signal for anything changing significantly before the end of the month. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Again FWIW... the latest CFS run released last night shows a warm June. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Again FWIW... the latest CFS run released last night shows a warm June. Considering the CFS has gotten each of last 7 months perfectly backwards, it’s hard not to feel good about a cool June this year. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Considering the CFS has gotten each of last 7 months perfectly backwards, it’s hard not to feel good about a cool June this year. So be it... I said FWIW. ECMWF weeklies show a generally warm June as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 So be it... I said FWIW. ECMWF weeklies show a generally warm June as well.So touchy. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Summer basically started in late April this year. Yet you still cry about a few marine layer days. Want a 90+ degree Mother’s Day AND Memorial Day. Sick of you spoiled babies.I deeply apologize for enjoying warm sunny weather. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 I deeply apologize for enjoying warm sunny weather.Apology accepted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 I deeply apologize for enjoying warm sunny weather. Almost like its human nature to want sunshine and warm weather after months and months of rainy, chilly weather... regardless of temperature departures. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 And no one can complain about the weather they don't like ever again. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 This is what real convection looks like. Looks like a pic out of central Oregon right now. Things are getting really close to exploding. (Cue Matt) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthBurnabyWeather Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 The last few days have been pretty humid, but I noticed much cooler breezes this afternoon. What's been going on at the BC/WA surface/mid-levels over the past 12-24 hours that can explain this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Now the 18z ensembles are the best yet in the long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 EPS looked better than the operational Euro as well. Maybe just a hiccup from the Euro, and this pattern change is still on track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 EPS looked better than the operational Euro as well. Maybe just a hiccup from the Euro, and this pattern change is still on track. You were saying this frequently about 10 days ago referring to Mother's Day weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 You were saying this frequently about 10 days ago referring to Mother's Day weekend.Yup, definitely got burned then. I guess we will see if this time is different. Of course local history would dictate another major heat event or two following one of the warmest and driest first halves of May on record. Happens all the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 Yup, definitely got burned then. I guess we will see if this time is different. Of course local history would dictate another major heat event or two following one of the warmest and driest first halves of May on record. Happens all the time.Local history would dictate a drier than normal year at SEA at some point... but that does not seem like it will ever happen again. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Nina Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 Despite being cloudy until almost 3, it has managed to reach 70° Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthBurnabyWeather Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 I guess my question is too simple to warrant a response... :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Nina Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 I guess my question is too simple to warrant a response... :/A marine layer has pushed inland from the ocean. Mark Nelsen calls it nature's air conditioning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 I guess my question is too simple to warrant a response... :/ Well defined marine push last night. It did not even clear out at all along the coast and well inland. That cools down all areas west of the mountains. Tomorrow will be even cooler. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 And no one can complain about the weather they don't like ever again.Good thing we all like snow (except for one of the Timmy’s) Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 Good thing we all like snow (except for one of the Timmy’s) Actually I don't think either of the Timmys is too crazy about snow except for the holidays. Certainly not February or later. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 If it's not gonna snow on Memorial Day Weekend it may as well be in the 90's. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 If it's not gonna snow on Memorial Day Weekend it may as well be in the 90's. 00Z GFS says that will work. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 00Z GFS says that will work.Would have been a great year to plant the veggie garden early. Unfortunately I’ve been too busy. This coming weekend is our holiday weekend up here. I think we are going to head up to the cariboo for a few days. Weather is looking good, hopefully the fish are biting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 00Z GFS says that will work.It's probably wrong.* *- BUT WHAT IF IT'S RIGHT????!!!!!!!!!??????? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 Would have been a great year to plant the veggie garden early. Unfortunately I’ve been too busy. This coming weekend is our holiday weekend up here. I think we are going to head up to the cariboo for a few days. Weather is looking good, hopefully the fish are biting. Our garden is doing great... we have everything planted including tomatoes and they are dark green and growing fast and flowering already. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 It's probably wrong.* *- BUT WHAT IF IT'S RIGHT????!!!!!!!!!??????? If its right... remind me to cancel our reservations by 5/25. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 It's probably wrong.* *- BUT WHAT IF IT'S RIGHT????!!!!!!!!!??????? GFS is only wrong when it predicts major cool spells in the LR. It is a dead eye when it comes to the warm stuff though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 If its right... remind me to cancel our reservations by 5/25.For where/what? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 GFS is only wrong when it predicts major cool spells in the LR. It is a dead eye when it comes to the warm stuff though.Fingers crossed! (You'll have to guess as to what I'm crossing my fingers for!) Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 For where/what? Memorial day weekend... back-up plan east of the mountains. It seems that just booking the reservations causes a heat wave. It happened 3 times last year. We never did get over there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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