May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Looks like marine clouds have made it as far inland as Kelso and the central Willamette Valley this morning.

[MossMan]

The GFS is terrible with EHEM MJO events. Nothing new there.

EMINEMS MOJO is always screwing with us.

Anyway such a perfect day today, currently in the 70’s and sun.

[TT-SEA]

WRF optimistically clears the marine layer back to the coast each day from Wednesday - Friday... but the ECMWF shows most of the region staying cloudy each of those days with highs in the 60s.    And even into Saturday as well with showers around.   

 

WRF is always too optimistic in these situations while the ECMWF is rarely fooled.  

 

Having the cloud data from the ECMWF on WB is helpful.

[Jesse]

WRF optimistically clears the marine layer back to the coast each day from Wednesday - Friday... but the ECMWF shows most of the region staying cloudy each of those days with highs in the 60s. And even into Saturday as well with showers around.

 

WRF is always too optimistic in these situations while the ECMWF is rarely fooled.

 

Having the cloud data from the ECMWF on WB is helpful.

Some solid marine layer days sound like a great change of pace.

[TT-SEA]

Going to be booking a central or eastern WA getaway for Memorial Day weekend today with the option to cancel. ECMWF has me thinking it might be pretty ugly on this side based on how it looks at day 10.

[Jesse]

Going to be booking a central or eastern WA getaway for Memorial Day weekend today with the option to cancel. ECMWF has me thinking it might be pretty ugly on this side based on how it looks at day 10.

I’m sure it will trend hott and dry again. Everything has been working out for you lately.

[TT-SEA]

I’m sure it will trend hott and dry again. Everything has been working out for you lately.

 

I need a back-up plan.

[Jesse]

I need a back-up plan.

The 12z Euro seems way too good to be true. It’s probably jumping the gun on a pattern change.

[Deweydog]

Patterns change. Just like genders.

[Jesse]

Patterns change. Just like genders.

 

This is true. It's normal for the models to jump the gun initially, though.

[Deweydog]

This is true. It's normal for the models to jump the gun initially, though.

Sure, but we're overdue.

[Farmboy]

Important 12z EPS coming up!

[Jesse]

Important 12z EPS coming up!

I will give you a spoiler. It probably won’t stay completely cloudless and dry the rest of the month/warm season. Book flights accordingly.

[Front Ranger]

Important 12z EPS coming up!

 

Seems to support the operational pretty well.

[Jesse]

Really happy to see the marine intrusions this week strengthen on the models. Too dang warm out today.

[TT-SEA]

Really happy to see the marine intrusions this week strengthen on the models. Too dang warm out today.

I wish it would just be sunny and in the upper 60s or low 70s.

 

It's probably not going to clear up at all for 3 days.

[Jesse]

EPS looks just a little faster with the height drops next week than the operational. That is usually a good sign going into a pattern change.

 

Hangs up less energy offshore with less of a cutoff over CA late this weekend and early next week.

[Jesse]

I wish it would just be sunny and in the upper 60s or low 70s.

 

 

That’s basically how it was the whole time we were in Port Townsend. You would probably like it there. They get a lot of sea breeze but not much in the way of low clouds.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Beautiful day right now in Hillsboro. Today should be the last really warm day for a while. Tomorrow should still be warm but more comfortable. Signs of any troughing keep getting pushed back. The 12z EPS PNA forecast isn't showing any significant troughing or for that matter ridging as we close out May. In previous runs it showed more of a negative PNA look but now it's not anymore.

 

[Geos]

Toasty -Up to 85 at my location now. Dew point about 58. 

 

Marine layer restricted right now to within a couple miles of the coast it looks like

 

[Front Ranger]

I wish it would just be sunny and in the upper 60s or low 70s.

 

It's probably not going to clear up at all for 3 days.

 

That would be unusual for May. But so has been the heat, so...

[Jesse]

Beautiful day right now in Hillsboro. Today should be the last really warm day for a while. Tomorrow should still be warm but more comfortable. Signs of any troughing keep getting pushed back. The 12z EPS PNA forecast isn't showing any significant troughing or for that matter ridging as we close out May. In previous runs it showed more of a negative PNA look but now it's not anymore.

 

 

The troughing signal has been moving up on the Euro and the EPS.

[Farmboy]

Beautiful day right now in Hillsboro. Today should be the last really warm day for a while. Tomorrow should still be warm but more comfortable. Signs of any troughing keep getting pushed back. The 12z EPS PNA forecast isn't showing any significant troughing or for that matter ridging as we close out May. In previous runs it showed more of a negative PNA look but now it's not anymore.

 

 

If you look at the last frame (hr. 240) of the last 5 EPS runs, you can see the advance of the trough, it does seem a little slow/restrained, though...

[TT-SEA]

That would be unusual for May. But so has been the heat, so...

 

Not that unusual for May.

 

I would like a more stable middle ground.

[Front Ranger]

Not that unusual for May.

 

I would like a more stable middle ground.

 

Most marine layer days in the warm season have some clearing. Three straight with no clearing would be somewhat unusual.

[TT-SEA]

Most marine layer days in the warm season have some clearing. Three straight with no clearing would be somewhat unusual.

 

Probably more likely out here.  

 

ECMWF shows almost no clearing from Wednesday - Friday.

[Jesse]

Might not hit 90 today. Oh darn!

[Deweydog]

#saveit4july

[Jesse]

#saveit4july

Already broke the seal once. That will cost us four of the twenty six 90+ days pegged for July.

 

#deweylogic

 

#those89swillberefreshing

[TigerWoodsLibido]

80 in Dallas. Monmouth has made it to 84 just 6 miles away. Makes no sense.

[Deweydog]

Already broke the seal once. That will cost us four of the twenty six 90+ days pegged for July.

 

#deweylogic

 

#those89swillberefreshing

Could have wiped another four off the board if you let it happen today.

 

#abirdinthehandisworthfourinthetinderdrybush

[Jesse]

Could have wiped another four off the board if you let it happen today.

 

#abirdinthehandisworthfourinthetinderdrybush

PDX is up to 84. Could still happen. Would make for a miserably cool midsummer for adolescent male farmers.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like SEA may challenge a fairly strong record of 87 from 1973. Already up to 84. 

 

Meanwhile, OLM is at 83 and unlikely to challenge their record of 89.

[El Nina]

Very very warm today. 86°

[MossMan]

Such a perfect day!!! 80’s and sun, does not get any better than that!

[Jesse]

Aaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Do I win loudest post of the day?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Aaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Do I win loudest post of the day?

You need to have more exclamation points than Tim has rainy days at his house annually.

[Geos]

Reached 87 at home, 88 at work. Got a westerly breeze blowing in now which is acting to cool it off a bit. 

 

Too early for this heat. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like SEA may challenge a fairly strong record of 87 from 1973. Already up to 84. 

 

Meanwhile, OLM is at 83 and unlikely to challenge their record of 89.

 

 

Officially 88 at SEA today.

 

Same at PDX.   

 

Usually when SEA is keeping pace with PDX during a warm spell then you know the end is in sight. 

[Jesse]

Still a frightening amount of warm members on the 18z ensembles.