August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Going to be model instabilities in the 9/10-9/20 period.

 

Tropical forcing - wavetrain climo starts undergoing significant changes in a few weeks. The discontinuous retrogression of the ongoing pattern will probably see its most coherent manifestation across the CONUS during the second half of September, following the return from this subseasonal bifurcation away from the earlier wave-1 dateline/WPAC regime that dominated much of August.

 

Theoretically, it be quite the pattern swing, as the first half of September still looks to be dominated by western troughing and a large, poleward displaced anticyclone/Bermuda High over the east-central US, while the last 10 days of the month could feature the exact opposite pattern.

Hopefully any long term ridging keeps getting put off. We basically had a ridge over us from late April to just about a week ago. Definitely due for more than a few weeks of general troughing.

[Front Ranger]

Tim should get a gold star! He has been getting under the skin of people for at least 15yrs now! Didn’t we all start gathering on he OFA board...then the Yahoo forum...and so on! And the funniest thing is that he probably contributes more maps and forecasts than anyone here.

 

Well, he definitely "contributes" more than anyone else... (see post count)

[TT-SEA]

Not the weather that I was expecting today... at least so far.

 

[Jesse]

Either way it appears pretty tolerable.

Yeah, looking like a nice summer to fall transition this year (no blowtorch in sight). Just wishing we had a little more rain under our belts.

[Front Ranger]

Be nice if the Mariners could avoid their usual mid to late summer swoon... for even just one year.    

 

Managers change... ownership changes... players come and go... but its always the same thing.  

 

Maybe thoughts of the impending rainy season crushes their spirits??

[Front Ranger]

Going to be model instabilities in the 9/10-9/20 period.

 

Tropical forcing - wavetrain climo starts undergoing significant changes in a few weeks. The discontinuous retrogression of the ongoing pattern will probably see its most coherent manifestation across the CONUS during the second half of September, following the return from this subseasonal bifurcation away from the earlier wave-1 dateline/WPAC regime that dominated much of August.

 

Theoretically, it could be quite the pattern swing, as the first half of September still looks to be dominated by western troughing and a large, poleward displaced anticyclone/Bermuda High over the east-central US, while the last 10 days of the month could feature the exact opposite pattern.

 

There are a number of things that suggest a ridgy period in late September/early October is more likely than normal.

[Front Ranger]

Problem is they do not have top of the line starting pitching, and no organizational depth. They have had a terrible farm system for years. It means they really can't withstand injuries and have no legit prospects to bring up for an infusion of talent later in the year, or to use as trade bait before the deadline to get ready for stretch run. So really the mid season swoon is not surprising. Also the run differential made it pretty clear they were mostly getting by on luck and one great reliever in those 1 run games. When the starting pitching started to slow down (Which statistics suggested it would), there would be no room for error. They are a team with .500 talent, and will likely finish a bit above that, which is in itself an accomplishment, in some years their final record would probably have been enough for the 2nd wildcard. 

 

Playing in a tough division doesn't help either.

[TT-SEA]

No need to imply.

 

SEA averages 38" of rain/year. Palmer averages 90".

 

SEA averages 2.57" in April and 1.76" in May. Palmer averages more than 3x that in April/May.

 

There are 40 days/year on average where SEA is completely dry and Palmer gets rain. Even more telling, SEA averages less than 100 days/year with .10"+ rain, while Palmer averages almost 150.

 

It's a pretty significant, tangible difference...especially in the tweener periods of late spring and early fall.

 

Yep.

 

There many days when its just raining harder out here... its still wet and gloomy everywhere so the difference it not that meaningful even though we are getting way more rain.   

 

And there are many other days (particularly in the spring) when its rainy out here and actually sunny in Seattle.    Those are the days when the difference is most noticeable.  

 

On the flip side there are also days when it actually sunnier and sometimes warmer out here (in the summer and during winter inversions).

 

Also a HUGE difference with snow.           

[Phil]

Sort of crazy how all over the place the models have been with the pattern the next 7 days or so.

 

Ensembles seem to generally support the 12z GFS with a troughy Monday. Potential seems to be growing for a nice rain event around day 10 as well.

This might explain it.

 

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1035194051585368064?s=20

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF still showing rain here over the next 24 hours:

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah, looking like a nice summer to fall transition this year (no blowtorch in sight). Just wishing we had a little more rain under our belts.

Just need some rain and cooler than normal temps in Sept. There is a bit of correlation between that and the goodies later in Winter.

[Phil]

This might explain it.

 

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1035194051585368064?s=20

These model maps just keep getting sexier and sexier.

 

Weather nerds who haven’t purchased a subscription to one of the major vendors are becoming analogous to those dinosaurs who find out the daily weather forecast by calling in with their landline telephones.

 

I don’t know how Jesse et al have held out for so long.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12Z ECMWF still showing rain here over the next 24 hours:

 

Man we cannot buy a drop in the central and south Willamette Valley.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a few showers and more clouds around up here on Monday now.... more than the 00Z run.

 

Still sunny everywhere by afternoon but only in the low to mid 70s.

[Front Ranger]

Just need some rain and cooler than normal temps in Sept. There is a bit of correlation between that and the goodies later in Winter.

 

Ask Phil about correlations the following month.

[Front Ranger]

Man we cannot buy a drop in the central and south Willamette Valley.

 

Truly unprecedented stretch for pretty much the entire region from EUG to SEA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Truly unprecedented stretch for pretty much the entire region from EUG to SEA.

 

 

Any other similarities going forward between this year and 1967?

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows the very definition of "baggy trough" next week.

 

 

 

Surface map shows very nice weather... lots of sun and pleasant temps. Very little in the way of low clouds and no precip at all.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This month should come in at #7 warmest at PDX. Nothing to write home about...

[TT-SEA]

This month should come in at #7 warmest at PDX. Nothing to write home about...

 

 

I was just penning a letter to my mother about the August temperature departure at PDX.   I will toss it in the trash now.  

[Phil]

There are a number of things that suggest a ridgy period in late September/early October is more likely than normal.

Definitely looks that way right now. Interesting how years with eastward-displaced Indo-Pacific warm pools (like this year) almost always feature +PNA/niño-esque patterns in late September and October, when the seasonal changes in the wavetrain(s) really takes off.

 

The coming move to WHEM forcing during the second half of September only reinforces the likelihood of such a progression this year, IMO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely looks that way right now. Interesting how years with eastward-displaced Indo-Pacific warm pools (like this year) almost always feature +PNA/niño-esque patterns in late September and October, when the seasonal changes in the wavetrain(s) really takes off.

 

The coming move to WHEM forcing during the second half of September only reinforces the likelihood of such a progression this year, IMO.

 

Jesse is just going to love this!

[TT-SEA]

Here is an example... next Wednesday per the 12Z ECMWF:

 

 

Sunny and pleasant... 

 

[Jesse]

Jesse is just going to love this!

Not as much as Andrew!

 

Still considering a move to Lubbock in protest?

[Phil]

12Z ECMWF shows the very definition of "baggy trough" next week.

 

 

 

Surface map shows very nice weather... lots of sun and pleasant temps. Very little in the way of low clouds and no precip at all.

This pattern should be illegal.

[Jesse]

Late September/early October can actually be one of the nicest times of year for ridging IMO.

 

It’s always optimal when it is transitory/variable and doesn’t grab hold of the pattern and refuse to let go, though. I.e. torching our faces off and prolonging the drought.

[Phil]

Jesse is just going to love this!

I’m sure I’ll get tag-teamed off this forum sometime in the near future. Feels like one of those years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not as much as Andrew!

 

Still considering a move to Lubbock in protest?

 

No, they are talking to me about Dallas now. My wife was all in two weeks ago, now she's not so high on the idea...We'll see. I have another Skype meeting with them next week...I'll probably stay.

[Phil]

Ask Phil about correlations the following month.

Didn’t last winter put the kibosh on that s**t?

[Jesse]

No, they are talking to me about Dallas now. My wife was all in two weeks ago, now she's not so high on the idea...We'll see. I have another Skype meeting with them next week...I'll probably stay.

I’d definitely take Lubbock over Dallas, if given the choice.

[TT-SEA]

7-day rain total per the 12Z ECMWF... from tomorrow afternoon through next Friday afternoon so the rain shown tonight up here is not included.    The rain to the north and east of Seattle primarily comes on Monday morning.    Side note... there is no rain shown for days 9 or 10 either as it stays offshore and up on Vancouver Island.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Here is the entire 10-day rain total from the 12Z ECMWF (including today).   The rain shown in King County almost entirely comes in the next 24 hours.   The fire season should be about over in BC.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is the entire 10-day rain total from the 12Z ECMWF (including today).   The rain shown in King County almost entirely comes in the next 24 hours.   The fire season should be about over in BC.

 

 

Looks like the start of a normal fall progression.

[Jesse]

I like the trend toward generally lower heights next week on both the 12z GFS and Euro.

[TT-SEA]

I like the trend toward generally lower heights next week on both the 12z GFS and Euro.

Get the troughy period out of the way!

[Front Ranger]

Any other similarities going forward between this year and 1967?

 

Both weak ENSO, I think that's mainly it.

[Front Ranger]

Didn’t last winter put the kibosh on that s**t?

That's not how it works, silly.

[Kayla]

Anyone else notice that the time stamps on the posts here are about 8 minutes behind the actual time?

 

Anyone else noticed that the time stamps on the posts are about 68 minutes behind the actual time??

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here is the entire 10-day rain total from the 12Z ECMWF (including today). The rain shown in King County almost entirely comes in the next 24 hours. The fire season should be about over in BC.

 

The pattern looks nice at day 10. Lots of cold air compared to normal for this time of year starts making it's way down and brings much needed rain. Hopefully this will extinguish as much of the wildfires up there.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Anyone else notice that the time stamps on the posts here are about 8 minutes behind the actual time?

Anyone else noticed that the time stamps on the posts are about 68 minutes behind the actual time??

It's 8 minutes behind if you're logged in. 68 minutes if you view the forum without being logged on.