November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Congrats Chicago and MI peeps on the snow today.

 

Tomorrow’s system coming in from the NW looking at a bit more interesting. Trends today are north on most models. Might be a nice little hit.

 

Lookin good up there! 

 

[jaster220]

Pound town here in Jackson right now!  Very nice dendrites, near fatties..

 

LOL, and our SWS headlines timed out while the snow's worse than earlier (face palm)

[jaster220]

Future radar keeps snow flying in Marshall until at least 7:30 pm. Would luv that to verify. These sneaky ULL's are the ones that can pull-off surprises like that so let's see how it plays out..

[Niko]

This clipper looks very potent for the GL's region come Saturday.

[Niko]

LOL, and our SWS headlines timed out while the snow's worse than earlier (face palm)

Enjoy the snow buddy....it should be snowing here till about 10 or 11pm. Dang!

[jaster220]

Enjoy the snow buddy....it should be snowing here till about 10 or 11pm. Dang!

 

Thx Niko, you as well 

 

Dang! Marshall airport was reporting +SN and .5 mile vis at 3:15 obs. That's basically whiteout conditions for that lame ASOS that does not report snowfall intensity correctly. Have to go by vis reports moreso

[Niko]

Thx Niko, you as well 

 

Dang! Marshall airport was reporting +SN and .5 mile vis at 3:15 obs. That's basically whiteout conditions for that lame ASOS that does not report snowfall intensity correctly. Have to go by vis reports moreso

Looks like a lull currently.

[Niko]

Current temp at 33F w cloudy skies.

[St Paul Storm]

Now 1-3” in the grid for tomorrow night. Short term models more north with tomorrow event than the globals.

[westMJim]

Picked up just over a half inch of snow here. The ground and roads are snow covered and slippery. Even the main roads have snow and ice on them. The current temperature here is 31

[Niko]

6" of snow in Central Park and still coming down. Miller A storms can over perform and it did. Road crews were not ready for this. Friends and family are telling me that rates at 2" an hr or greater occurred. Cars were stuck on the GW bridge due to very bad road conditions.

[jaster220]

Picked up just over a half inch of snow here. The ground and roads are snow covered and slippery. Even the main roads have snow and ice on them. The current temperature here is 31

Measured 2" of wet snow after work on my deck. 8:1 type stuff. Very scenic out there and some peeps out clearing walks and such for the 1st time. On my other deck I have a now very dense 3" depth.

 

Now GRR goes WWA for the night, with the morning axis dropping an inch. The same one they said yesterday would be flurries, lol. Gotta luv it.

 

Niko, what's it like in Macomb?

[Niko]

Measured 2" of wet snow after work on my deck. 8:1 type stuff. Very scenic out there and some peeps out clearing walks and such for the 1st time. On my other deck I have a now very dense 3" depth.

 

Now GRR goes WWA for the night, with the morning axis dropping an inch. The same one they said yesterday would be flurries, lol. Gotta luv it.

 

Niko, what's it like in Macomb?

Just cloudy. The snow has ended. Roads are slippery though. Snow is covering the ground. Nice looking, wintry scene out there.

[snowstorm83]

Not surprised, NYC literally always gets the best banding possible haha. 

[jaster220]

6" of snow in Central Park and still coming down. Miller A storms can over perform and it did. Road crews were not ready for this. Friends and family are telling me that rates at 2" an hr or greater occurred. Cars were stuck on the GW bridge due to very bad road conditions.

Models showed a thump transition. The kind I remember around Da Mitt in my youth. Hope your family likes it! Gotta be early for Gotham

[Niko]

Models showed a thump transition. The kind I remember around Da Mitt in my youth. Hope your family likes it! Gotta be early for Gotham

Way too early for any snow there. This was a bonus for them. This is more like December type weather, not mid November.

 

Edit: soon, a mix will occur and then rain b4 tapering off late tanite. Either way ya look at it, roads there are a mess. Tourists in Times Square are liking it though

 

Btw: snowiest November since 1938 in Central Park.

[jaster220]

Per AFD evening update, they expect this coma head feature to rotate thru an drop another 1-2" in a short period. Could be ripping later on when it does.

[Niko]

Per AFD evening update, they expect this coma head feature to rotate thru an  in a short period. drop another 1-2"Could be ripping later on when it does.

Congrats on your WWA. Later tanite, you will get more snow as the 2nd system races on by you. This will stay mainly north of me, but could see an inch at the most IMBY.

[westMJim]

Still snowing here now up to just over 1.5" with the snow still coming down at a good clip yet. The roads are snow covered and slippery here. The temp is 31

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Saw ORD scored .9" and places west got 2-3" in that skinny defo band. How'd you do?

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Saw ORD scored .9" and places west got 2-3" in that skinny defo band. How'd you do?

About the same, but it melted off quickly...it was primarily a mood snow day....getting my psyche prepared for the winter season...

[jaster220]

Been above freezing since 7:30 in Marshall but snowiest day yet! Owe that Wisco poster an apology. Thursday happened. Each storm for Marshall has been progressively better.

 

Note: saw an 8.7" report from STL region. Beat NYC...in a November snow competition, lol

[jaster220]

AFD snippit

 

UPDATE...

Issued at 605 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

 

Expect locally intense snow band to begin pushing east this evening

and will be out of the area by midnight. Another 1 to 2 inches

possible mainly east of US-131. Some light freezing drizzle/rain

possible with snow later this evening but additional impacts

should be negligible given that wet surfaces are already starting

to freeze. Another burst of snow around the Friday morning

commute could again impact travel especially where road surfaces

have already fallen below freezing.

 

&&

[Niko]

Been above freezing since 7:30 in Marshall but snowiest day yet! Owe that Wisco poster an apology. Thursday happened. Each storm for Marshall has been progressively better.

 

Note: saw an 8.7" report from STL region. Beat NYC...in a November snow competition, lol

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and some light flurries flying around. Temp at 32F.

[jaster220]

KJXN yesterday recorded a mean of 23.5F for a departure of -17.1 from normal. Past 7 days have all been fom -8 to -17 departures. This is nuts for down here. Always wondered what those frigid Nov's in the early 50's were like? Now I know

[Niko]

Next week, my forecast shows temps in the low 40s for highs. That would feel good. I bet it disappears and gets replaced by 30s.

[james1976]

I like how most , if not, all of us have had snow already this season. Off to a good start. Hopefully it just keeps on trucking!

[St Paul Storm]

MPX says they are holding off on issuing any advisories for now, but the north trend may be for real with the snow on Friday. 2-4” now in the point.

[Meichel]

About the same, but it melted off quickly...it was primarily a mood snow day....getting my psyche prepared for the winter season...

We were in that band and measured just under 2" when the pixie dust took over at the end. Was awesome to watch some pretty fat flakes for a couple hours!

[westMJim]

The official snow fall for yesterday at GRR was  3.2" and the total for the month so far is 8.9" The average snow fall in November for Grand Rapids is 6.3" but has ranged from 0" (in several years) up to 31.0" in 2014. It should be noted that a snowy November does not indicate that there will be a snowy winter. The current mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 37.3° and that is 5.8° below average. The last time it reached 60 or better was way back on October 14th  Going back to 1892 there have only been 9 past Novembers that Grand Rapids has not reached 60 or better 2018 is now on the way to be number 10. Here is a list of the past 9 and a brief recap of that winter 1. 1907/08 aver temps snow 43.4" 2. 1919 Cold then average snow fall 56.9" 3. 1920/21 warmer that average only 35.6" snow fall reported. 4. 1921/22 warm Dec ave J/F snow fall 44.1" 5. 1925/26 average temps snow fall 89.5" 6. 1967/68 colder that average 55.1" 7. 1969/70 colder than average snow fall 84.6" 8. 1976/77 Cold than average winter snow fall 70.8"  9. 1997/98 warmer than average 59.8". We shall see if we do or do not make 60 or better the rest of November and if we don't how this winter will play out. It should be noted that 1968/69, 1976/77 and 1997/98 were El Nino winters.

[Niko]

Currently 32F w light snow. Wcf in the mid 20s.

 

Btw: Seems like temps moderate next week into the mid 40s (which is about normal for this time of the year). Lets see if models trend colder.

[Niko]

Yesterdays snowstorm in NYC (Central Park) Broke record for most snow in November since the late 1800s. WOW!

 

[james1976]

Models trying to spin up a storm next Saturday but looks like rain.

[jaster220]

GRR was asleep at the wheel on yesterday's storm in The Mitt. Zero headlines for accumulating snowfall until after most areas had been hit - shocked! (not)

 

[Niko]

The clipper for Saturday looks interesting. Havent had a chance to read any posts on the thread, but looks like a b-line towards SWMI. Heads up Jaster!

[Niko]

Current conditions are cloudy w a few flurries flying around and temp @ 32F. Much quieter day today.

[jaster220]

The clipper for Saturday looks interesting. Havent had a chance to read any posts on the thread, but looks like a b-line towards SWMI. Heads up Jaster!

 

If only. Every model (now SR mode) kills the energy just as it crosses Lake Mich. Be lucky to get a few tenths of an inch the way it's looking. I think it's just a bit warm ahead of it tbh. 

 

GEM keeps us chilling next week beyond d5, while the other GFS's warm us up. GRR seems onboard with the GFS plan attm. I'd be good with that as it would make a window to finish up the yard and hang lights for the holidays..hohoho!

[Esquimalt]

Was stranded in toronto airport yesterday evening for five hours...crazy event with over 5 inches on the ground by the time we were able to take off and de-ice.  The flake structure became increasingly large and fluffy as the night progressed, and by 1 AM it was large, puffy flakes with a rate of 1 inch an hour.  Wish I was out in the snow instead of sitting on a plane!  

[Niko]

If only. Every model (now SR mode) kills the energy just as it crosses Lake Mich. Be lucky to get a few tenths of an inch the way it's looking. I think it's just a bit warm ahead of it tbh. 

 

GEM keeps us chilling next week beyond d5, while the other GFS's warm us up. GRR seems onboard with the GFS plan attm. I'd be good with that as it would make a window to finish up the yard and hang lights for the holidays..hohoho!

I agree. I think we can use temporary warming to do some outside stuff. I need to get things done also.