November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Currently, cloudy and chilly w temps in the upper 30s.

[Tom]

Taking a look at the wx pattern for Thanksgiving, if you are to believe the Euro, it'll be a cold one across the GL's as it's "seeing" what I thought would happen and a sneaky Canadian HP is forecast to slide across the Upper MW/GL's region.  When I saw that upper level ridge near Hudson Bay last week on the EPS, I knew pattern was ripe for this to happen.  The pullback is coming, but it's going to be temporary and provide some tranquil weather for a change, as the holiday traveling season begins this week.  

 

The models have been acting erratic in the extended, which isn't a surprise given how much blocking is developing as a complex North American pattern evolves.  Needless to say, storm systems are showing up post Thanksgiving holiday and I think the Euro is handling this pattern a lot better.  What we may see happen is a lead system develop around the Black Friday (23rd/24th) period near the Upper Midwest/N GL's which was a similar storm system way back in early October.  I'm looking to see if the models pick up on the second system that should track out of the 4 corners/S Plains between 11/25-11/27.  If that happens, this may be the beginning of LRC cycle #2 and the fun really begins.

[Tom]

As daylight emerges, the landscape here is white again..."Make America Snowmagedon"...this should be the # theme this season.  It's amazing how many times it has snowed here in November and across our the majority of this sub.  It's a "share the wealth" type of pattern that keeps on delivering.  Enjoy the snow today!

[Niko]

Atm, cloudy and chilly w temps at 35F. A few flurries around. No biggie!

[Niko]

Very curious to see if that warm-up will happen end of next week. (4 day stretch of low to mid 40s).

[westMJim]

Getting light snow falling here with a current temperature of 33° So far this month the mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 37.0° that is good for a departure of -5.9° so far a total of 8.9” of snow has fallen. One very interesting item is that the warmest it has gotten so far this month is just 52° if this were to hold for the rest of the month this would be the coldest highest temperature for any November in the recorded history here at Grand Rapids the current coldest high for any past November is 53 set in 1907 with 55 being is 2^nd place with a 55° and 56° in 3^rd place tie in 1967 and 1997.

[jaster220]

As daylight emerges, the landscape here is white again..."Make America Snowmagedon"...this should be the # theme this season.  It's amazing how many times it has snowed here in November and across our the majority of this sub.  It's a "share the wealth" type of pattern that keeps on delivering.  Enjoy the snow today!

Love the slogan idea! I've literally just had a week of winter in the first half of Nov! Had heard of this from an Old-timer and found it hard to fathom. Will remember this for sure. Not just winter conditions, but a snowfall pace that equates to a 30" month. YUGE! for this locale

[jaster220]

Very curious to see if that warm-up will happen end of next week. (4 day stretch of low to mid 40s).

Feeling that the warm-up becomes a short stretch of normal days. Perhaps warm overnights skew the mean to seem milder. Or, highs are warm, but lows are cold and frosty making it still feel cold. I could make use of a dry spell tho

[jaster220]

The chill shall continue for a while longer it seems

 

[Andie]

I lived in Aurora Illinois in a fit of madness in the winter of 1978. Blizzard, 120" snow up until Feb of 1979....whereupon this Texan packed up and headed back to Heaven, (cough) Texas.

 

That said, this is very early for this stuff even for them. Our snow in the 78" adventure didn't begin until Thanksgiving. We went from a beautiful fall to deep winter in a flash.

Never saw the Ground again.

 

Temps in Texas today will be 71* and a low of 43*.

Sunny, light breeze, heaven.

[Niko]

Feeling that the warm-up becomes a short stretch of normal days. Perhaps warm overnights skew the mean to seem milder. Or, highs are warm, but lows are cold and frosty making it still feel cold. I could make use of a dry spell tho

Hopefully, we can see a brief warm-up and let the pattern reload. Plus, I got things to take care of outside.

[Niko]

Currently at 34F w cloudy skies a few flurries.

[jaster220]

Been above freezing all but a handful of hours since the snow ended Friday morning. Today brought only a couple snow showers in the mid-30's so we've now lost most of our modest snow cover tho my deck still has 2" of snow cone on top. Was in Kzoo shopping and some parking lot piles are 12-15 feet high from a week ago. Thinking those will survive the upcoming warmth and survive til spring from the very first storm. JB showed a picture of his front yard where his tree is full of green leafs with about 8" of snow OTG from the storm. He noted that it was far less destructive than the Nov '95 storm which was a wet plaster job and brought down a ton of trees.

[Niko]

A few flurries flying around. Temps at 31F.

[Tom]

Here's an interesting tidbit on how rare this November has been...

 

 

 

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Chicago officially got 1.5" of snow today, making it 3rd calendar day this fall w/snowfall >= 1". In 147 years of weather records dating back to 1871, only ONCE before has Chicago had 3 calendar day 1" snowfalls by this date. In 1951, 3rd 1" snow was on Nov 7th! #Snowvember #ILWX

 

 

[jaster220]

Here's an interesting tidbit on how rare this November has been...

 

Wow! I did mention those early 50's. I remember after the Dec 2000 bliz, Skilling reported that it was the first pre-Christmas bliz since 1951. Can we deja Vu that too please?

 

Speaking of early winter (Tom called it btw), this nifty map shows as of this morning 12z how snowy it's really been and it's pretty darn accurate showing 7" over mby vs the 7.4" I've measured here. Check out the max! Nearly 70" already in the far eastern U.P. near Whitefish point!

 

[Grizzcoat]

GFS has a snow event for next Sunday- the  25th- for Western IA. At least it's something to track.

[Niko]

End of this month looking stormy. Might have to watch for a possible storm for early Dec as well.

[jaster220]

Speaking of historic..

 

"RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

 

540 PM CST THU NOV 15 2018

 

...NOVEMBER MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORD BROKEN AT SPRINGFIELD...

 

ONLY HALFWAY INTO THE MONTH...SPRINGFIELD HAS ALREADY SEEN 9.4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATE. THIS IS THE MOST SNOW ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. THE OLD RECORD OF 9.2 INCHES WAS SET IN 1951. THE NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR NOVEMBER IS ONLY 0.6 INCHES."

[jaster220]

GFS has a snow event for next Sunday- the  25th- for Western IA. At least it's something to track.

Something wants to happen in that window (25-28th) and the further west you are the better is my take. I wouldn't discount the possibility models are getting an early hint at it

[Minny_Weather]

GFS has a snow event for next Sunday- the 25th- for Western IA. At least it's something to track.

Because it's showing something for 7 days out, it'll probably come to fruition. That's how everything has worked so far this season.

[Tom]

Speaking of historic..

 

"RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

 

540 PM CST THU NOV 15 2018

 

...NOVEMBER MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORD BROKEN AT SPRINGFIELD...

 

ONLY HALFWAY INTO THE MONTH...SPRINGFIELD HAS ALREADY SEEN 9.4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATE. THIS IS THE MOST SNOW ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. THE OLD RECORD OF 9.2 INCHES WAS SET IN 1951. THE NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR NOVEMBER IS ONLY 0.6 INCHES."

The Historic November stretch continues....wowwza, what an impressive start to the cold season!

[Tom]

I like what I'm seeing per the overnight data as the 00z EPS is sniffing out a deep southern stream SLP during the 25th-28th period and tracking up towards the OV.  This is a system I've been waiting to see the models pick up on and they sure seem to be heading that way.  Could this be the big one that snaps the pattern back into Winter???  Finish off what has been a historic November???  I believe so...given the way nature has been performing lately I would not be surprised to see this system end up bombing out somewhere around the eastern GL's/OV region.  That Hudson Bay ridge is one of those key components to get a massive neg tilted trough to form.  It'll be a fun Thanksgiving week tracking this potential beast.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2018111800/168/sfcmslp.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2018111800/192/sfcmslp.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2018111800/216/sfcmslp.na.png

[Niko]

Currently light snow and temp at 30F. Everything is white out there. Winter wonderland. I swear, I don't think I have eva seen a November this snowy before.

[CentralNebWeather]

With the recent snow, my area will be close to 12” of snow already this November. Amazing. This November should easily make the top 5 snowiest. What can the rest of winter provide? Anxiously awaiting.

[Minny_Weather]

It's amazing what a snowcover can do to temps. We were forecasted to have a low of 18*F, we hit 8*F as our low this morning. 10.9*F.

[jaster220]

Currently light snow and temp at 30F. Everything is white out there. Winter wonderland. I swear, I don't think I have eva seen a November this snowy before.

Just a few 10ths ova here, mostly on elevated surfaces as well, so it's not white like Thursday evening, but it's enough to trash my yard work plans. GRR had us at sunny and upper 30's. It may clear off later, but right now it's a wet, damp, miserable mess out there. There was a time that didn't bother me, but I've out-lived those days, lol

[jaster220]

Extent of ice and snow. NIC map is Sat, NOHRSC is 1 am today

 

 

[jaster220]

I like what I'm seeing per the overnight data as the 00z EPS is sniffing out a deep southern stream SLP during the 25th-28th period and tracking up towards the OV. This is a system I've been waiting to see the models pick up on and they sure seem to be heading that way. Could this be the big one that snaps the pattern back into Winter??? Finish off what has been a historic November??? I believe so...given the way nature has been performing lately I would not be surprised to see this system end up bombing out somewhere around the eastern GL's/OV region. That Hudson Bay ridge is one of those key components to get a massive neg tilted trough to form. It'll be a fun Thanksgiving week tracking this potential beast.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2018111800/168/sfcmslp.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2018111800/192/sfcmslp.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2018111800/216/sfcmslp.na.png

Flashing that psuedo-Miller B look again with multiple centers of SLP. Not sure it gets very beastly deep with that structure? Or did you mean in general square miles covered when you used that term?

[GDR]

384 hrs of nothing on the gfs

[Tom]

Flashing that psuedo-Miller B look again with multiple centers of SLP. Not sure it gets very beastly deep with that structure? Or did you mean in general square miles covered when you used that term?

It can go both ways, but the general coverage will be widespread...

[jaster220]

Wow. Twelve below zero for some Yoopers

 

[Hawkeye]

North-central Iowa crashed to around -6 degrees this morning.  Wow!  The Cedar Rapids airport hit 9, while it was about 12 here.

[hlcater]

North-central Iowa crashed to around -6 degrees this morning.  Wow!  The Cedar Rapids airport hit 9, while it was about 12 here.

We had clouds until about 2am; the temp was still 25 as a result of that. Had we lost that cloud cover, there is little doubt in my mind that we would have joined them.

[Minny_Weather]

We had clouds until about 2am; the temp was still 25 as a result of that. Had we lost that cloud cover, there is little doubt in my mind that we would have joined them.

Clouds are what kept us from reaching our record at the airport today. Record is 4*F, we hit 7*F. It was cloudy here till about 1-2am as well.

[westMJim]

There is a strange light source outside today. Yes, the sun has just came out here at my house. And the temperature has now jumped up to 38° The mean temperature so far this November is now at 36.7° and that is a departure of -6.0° the warmest it has gotten so far this month is just 52° if this holds for the rest of the month that will be the coldest maximum for any November in recorded history here at Grand Rapids. The current record is 53 set in 1907 with 55 in 2nd place (1920, 1976).  Just as fast as the sun came out it now has gone cloudy once again.

[westMJim]

Wow. Twelve below zero for some Yoopers

 

46375406_2373529009343643_8417832056993611776_n.thumb.png.7411868e7f9121219e2511614262a001.png

That is some cold readings for November!!!

[Money]

Quite the storm showing up on the euro for next weekend

[Niko]

Just a few 10ths ova here, mostly on elevated surfaces as well, so it's not white like Thursday evening, but it's enough to trash my yard work plans. GRR had us at sunny and upper 30's. It may clear off later, but right now it's a wet, damp, miserable mess out there. There was a time that didn't bother me, but I've out-lived those days, lol

Same here...white on grass, wet on road surfaces, icy spots on sidewalks, ponds semi frozen, its a mess I tell ya.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and coldw temps at 32F. Snow has ended.