November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

I don't know if I mentioned it here earlier or not, but I am incredibly grateful and in debt of life to the great veterans of this nation. They laid down and risked their lives for me and this wonderful country and I will continue to believe in, honor, demonstrate and live out what I know they paid the ultimate price for. So, humbly, Thank you very much veterans.

Amen

[OKwx2k4]

Snow in Marshall is on shady sides of buildings or patchy at best. In contrast to Kzoo where I saw a good 3+ OTG this afternoon. It was quite amazing to see considering we had a lot of green trees about 3 wks ago.

It was still picturesque fall here for the first time in over a decade until Saturday. Literally instantaneous winter look, feel, everything. Crazy. New round of models getting fired up here in a few.

[jaster220]

It was still picturesque fall here for the first time in over a decade until Saturday. Literally instantaneous winter look, feel, everything. Crazy. New round of models getting fired up here in a few.

NAM RGEM & GEM painting 1-2" amt's here by Tuesday evening. Trends are South with the Thursday-friday system.

[OKwx2k4]

GFS shaving precip amounts back this run on tomorrow's snow, but it's been a virtual guarantee of snow. I'll settle for a high-end advisory snow of 1-3" if that's all I can get.

[OKwx2k4]

NAM RGEM & GEM painting 1-2" amt's here by Tuesday evening. Trends are South with the Thursday-friday system.

Only model I'm worried about is EURO. I think last I knew of, it was northwest of all guidance.

[OKwx2k4]

Haven't tracked snow in 3 years. Its not guaranteed until it's on the ground. Lol. Something could still go wrong.

[Tom]

Happy Monday all!  I have spent the last hour or so studying and analyzing the data from all the models and let me tell you, I love what I'm seeing as this spectacular pattern continues to develop.  I believe I've also dialed in on the beginnings of the LRC cycle #2.  I'll make several posts this morning but first, what a week of wx tracking we have geared up as this action packed month continues to deliver in all parts of our sub forum.  It's the southern tier that is getting in on the action but now trends are favoring for the cut-off energy down into deep TX to take the ol' fashioned Arklatex track up into the OV.  Folks NW of this track near STL into C IL/IN and S MI/OH are positioned in a better place to see more snow this month.  Overnight 00z EPS is showing a band of snow in this region.

[Tom]

Where shall I begin today??? Its becoming clearly obvious that the warm blob is influencing the erratic behavior in the models post Day 5. Both GEFS/EPS missed the NE PAC /NW NAMER ridge that is to blossom later this week into the weekend and deliver another arctic blast down into the central CONUS. The idea of a warm up around the 18th is now being delayed the farther east and north you are in the sub forum. This was the idea as I saw a pattern a few days ago that signaled to me to look for Canadian HP's that would seed cold into the northern tier of the sub. In fact, it now appears that we may stay BN throughout the extended near the GL's region.

 

It's a season that nature continues to deliver the goods. Every single model is on board that high lat blocking will blossom and take over the entire North American pattern. What was being shown last week of an overall torch by the CFSv2 and other modeling, is now seemingly just going to be a transitional phase where we see a deep trough form in the west/SW but other driving forces will continue to seed cold into the lower 48, except for where there will be storm induced warmth come Thanksgiving week. Post Thanksgiving, get ready for Winter to lock and rock 'n roll. This pattern is geared up for a action packed close to the month and open met Winter in a cold/wintry fashion.

 

Some big key players are on the field and the massive Scandinavian Ridge is truly one of the more eye popping ridges across the Northern Hemisphere which will be a key component. Check out this monstrous ridge influence the wx pattern down the road as it retrogrades west towards Greenland. Just amazing to see. This, along with a trifecta -AO/-NAO/-EPO will all be working in tandem to deliver a wx pattern I have not seen since I began tracking wx like I do now.

[Tom]

After studying the wx maps this morning, it hit me, like a flip of a switch and the light bulb went off.  As Gary says in his blog, you have to "see it" to believe it.  Anyhow, remember way back in early October I posted a GFS animation of the tropical system which tracked north of Hawaii and got picked up by a trough near the Aleutians that created Fujiwara-like effect???  Well, I just "saw" it on the wx maps and I'll show you what I'm seeing as this is telling me that the pattern maybe re-cycling.

 

Take a look at the trough N of Hawaii merge into the Aleutian Low, which then "hands off" the trough south of the blossoming NE PAC ridge/Split Flow and this energy targets So Cal.  This is almost exactly what happen way back in the opening days of October.  I'd like to see some more evidence before dialing in on the LRC pattern to make sure this isn't another exhibit to the ongoing developing LRC cycle #1.

[Clinton]

Good morning, getting ready for my 2nd accumulating snow of the season.  2 to 4 inches expected for my area, what a different Nov from the last few.  This has been one of the coldest and wettest Nov that I can remember.

[Clinton]

After studying the wx maps this morning, it hit me, like a flip of a switch and the light bulb went off.  As Gary says in his blog, you have to "see it" to believe it.  Anyhow, remember way back in early October I posted a GFS animation of the tropical system which tracked north of Hawaii and got picked up by a trough near the Aleutians that created Fujiwara-like effect???  Well, I just "saw" it on the wx maps and I'll show you what I'm seeing as this is telling me that the pattern maybe re-cycling.

 

Take a look at the trough N of Hawaii merge into the Aleutian Low, which then "hands off" the trough south of the blossoming NE PAC ridge/Split Flow and this energy targets So Cal.  This is almost exactly what happen way back in the opening days of October.  I'd like to see some more evidence before dialing in on the LRC pattern to make sure this isn't another exhibit to the ongoing developing LRC cycle #1.

 

If it's a 45 day cycle than Christmas week should be white for the entire forum.

[Tom]

Sheesh, where was that 50F degree day I saw last week???

 

 

 

Some models, with ensemble support, are showing an arctic frontal boundary system targeting parts of the Plains/MW/GL's later this week into the weekend.  Might see another snow system to track later this week.  These type of systems are always tricky for the models to pin down.

[Tom]

Good morning, getting ready for my 2nd accumulating snow of the season.  2 to 4 inches expected for my area, what a different Nov from the last few.  This has been one of the coldest and wettest Nov that I can remember.

My friend, this is a phenomenal pattern setting up for those in your neck of the woods in the S MW

 

If it's a 45 day cycle than Christmas week should be white for the entire forum.

Best guess at this moment is somewhere between 47-50 days, similar to last year's cycle length.  Your going to have opportunities galore this season.  I'ms stoked for you!

[james1976]

What a pattern we have going. Thanks Tom for the in-depth posts. Always look forward to reading them. It's interesting how any warmth is now being trended back. The warmest I see for my area may only get to mid 40s for a day or two which would be near normal at best. This is the coldest fall I can remember since '13 and we all know what kind of winter that led to.

 

This morning as I was driving to work the cloud deck rolled in with the CAA and was enough to squeeze out some flurries. Currently only 19° as well. Could be record lows again tonight!

[Tom]

What a pattern we have going. Thanks Tom for the in-depth posts. Always look forward to reading them. It's interesting how any warmth is now being trended back. The warmest I see for my area may only get to mid 40s for a day or two which would be near normal at best. This is the coldest fall I can remember since '13 and we all know what kind of winter that led to.

 

This morning as I was driving to work the cloud deck rolled in with the CAA and was enough to squeeze out some flurries. Currently only 19° as well. Could be record lows again tonight!

It certainly has been one of the colder autumns in recent years and with today's chill in the air, it was another reminder from nature for what is coming down the road.  I actually still saw some spotty snow patches in the shady areas while on my morning walk.  I'd say nearly all the trees are now 95% bare, except for some of the heartier ones.

[Niko]

Clouds are increasing along w cold temps being in the low 30s (31F). Snow likely tanite w a couple of inches expected IMBY.

[Andie]

We were at 45* this morning and in the last 20 minutes we've dropped to 42*.

Received 2.10" of rain since 10pm last night.

Low tonight forecast for 27*

 

The freezing weather/snow-ice line in just to my NW.

 

This fall weather hit us pretty hard. We went from a beautiful cool fall to deep cold and wet.

Looks like it will be one for the books in Texas this winter.

[Niko]

Looks like unsettled pattern continues w another potential system by weeks end. Still need time to pinpoint the exact details on this. Hopefully, by Wednesday, models will have a better idea on what precipitation type will fall and where it will track.

[CentralNebWeather]

Snow showers have been occurring over the last hour.  Enough to put a small amount of snow on the ground.  What a start to the cold and snow season though there is some warmer weather ahead this week.  Right now 18 degrees, wind chill of 3 with a snow shower.  Crazy for November.

[Niko]

Good morning, getting ready for my 2nd accumulating snow of the season.  2 to 4 inches expected for my area, what a different Nov from the last few.  This has been one of the coldest and wettest Nov that I can remember.

Same here. WBN temps and turning out to be a snowy month so far. MBY is expecting a couple of inches of snow tanite and ending early Tues morning. Arctic air follows.

[Minny_Weather]

Getting a surprising bout of mood flakes right now. Nice to look at. 24.1*F.

[OKwx2k4]

In case anyones wondering, IT FINALLY SNOWED!!!!

[Tom]

In case anyones wondering, IT FINALLY SNOWED!!!!

How much have you received thus far?

[james1976]

In case anyones wondering, IT FINALLY SNOWED!!!!

Congrats!

[snowstorm83]

Wow, I knew there was a chance of flurries, but it's actually snowing with a light dusting right now.

[james1976]

12z GFS trying to bring a quick round of lt snow fri nite with the artic front.

[Clinton]

Just measured 2in I think I have a shot at 2 more before the day is over.  Canadian model advertising some light snow here on Sunday.

[james1976]

Nice band setting up over KC right now.

[jaster220]

Same here. WBN temps and turning out to be a snowy month so far. MBY is expecting a couple of inches of snow tanite and ending early Tues morning. Arctic air follows.

 

Nice band setting up over KC right now.

 

Yeah, the good news for us riding the N fringe is that a quick check of radar indicates the snow shield is NOT south. 

[jaster220]

Once again, GFS caves to NAM

 

[james1976]

Definitely north. You guys are looking good

[St Paul Storm]

19F with a wind chill of 8F. Got back from TN last night and I knew it had been cold and that there was snow on the ground, but I didn’t expect everything to be frozen solid already. Many of the smaller lakes and ponds are already frozen over. Good stuff.

 

Edit: MPX just tweeted that the frost depth is already down to 4”. Amazing for mid Nov.

[Minny_Weather]

19F with a wind chill of 8F. Got back from TN last night and I knew it had been cold and that there was snow on the ground, but I didn’t expect everything to be frozen solid already. Many of the smaller lakes and ponds are already frozen over. Good stuff.

The lake I live by is frozen. Usually it doesn't freeze till a week or two before Christmas.

[james1976]

Its amazing how cold it's been. Seems like every day its 20+ degrees below normal.

[Andie]

It's early to be in the 20's for a low in North Tx.

 

Snow may be seen NW of me. It won't even dust the grass, but that's unusual.

Were at 41*. That'll likely be the high.

 

My heat went out on me this morning. Luckily i could switch it to emergency heat. We had 4 surges which the power co. Explained as something with some lines due to the wind. Still, the surges trashed a low voltage control panel on my heat pump. :/

[jaster220]

Nice band setting up over KC right now.

 

KC & STL winter in the works! Talk about a strange pattern 

[jaster220]

NAM gives me an inch and a half. I'll take that if it's solid (vs fluff stuff)

[Stormgeek]

19F with a wind chill of 8F. Got back from TN last night and I knew it had been cold and that there was snow on the ground, but I didn’t expect everything to be frozen solid already. Many of the smaller lakes and ponds are already frozen over. Good stuff.

 

Edit: MPX just tweeted that the frost depth is already down to 4”. Amazing for mid Nov.

Yeah! I think the last temperature above freezing was over a week ago now. Lakes are frozen here too and the snow still hasn't melted. Usually the ground eats it this time of year, but apparently it has just been too darn cold. Now it is time to wait for the moisture!

[jaster220]

18z HRRR likes me for a solid 2"  which based on radar trends might not be far fetched

[Niko]

Once again, GFS caves to NAM

 

As usual