November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Thanks, glad you did too.  The Friday event was all rain in Toronto so we were due for some snow.  What are your thoughts on the Tuesday system?  There have been multiple model runs this evening showing another system pulling in right behind the main one late on the 15th.  

 

I thought mby had zero chance and I've been busy enjoying yesterday's storm. Reckon I'd better start checking up on this next system. Don't really wanna watch snow miss me and hit Niko tho. That'd be rough

[jaster220]

Its funny how the snow melted so fast, considering low sun angle this time of the year. Temps did remain above freezing, but in the 30s all day.

 

Have to remember that it barely got to freezing to create the snow. Plus the ground was warm underneath. Were it winter and the ground was cold or frozen, then 38F air wouldn't have melted it so quickly.

[Hoosier]

Its funny how the snow melted so fast, considering low sun angle this time of the year. Temps did remain above freezing, but in the 30s all day.

Ground still retains a lot of warmth at this time of year.

[jaster220]

I hear the NAM looks great for next weeks storm for SEMI. Sweet!

 

NAMLUV to you and me bud

 

[jaster220]

(old) GFS keeps the snow shield 1/2 a state south of that NAM track, and the new V3 lands in between the two. GEM sides with NAM and gets snow up here to Marshall, but looks very brief (6 hrs??). Worth keeping an eye on as climo and tellies should be in our favor vs an EC storm. 

[jaster220]

Oh, and we have that one guy's winter call for "frequent snows" over The Mitt. Gotta ride that!

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

JB's calling for a serious warm-up across the CONUS base on a recent convection episode in the Indian Ocean which would favor such. CFS keeps us a bit below normal but he feels it's now missing in that direction as well. Are you seeing any strong signal for a relaxation? He does feel things get back to cold and wintery first of December after the ten days of warmth. I think that means his warm spell is roughly the 20-30th

 

 

[jaster220]

NAMLUV to you and me bud

 

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

 

NAM basically has the 540 line further north and thus can't support snow down where the GFS wants to. Interesting model battle shaping up with this. So far (at least in my book) it's NAM 1, GFS 0 after it nailed this past storm way before the globals caught on

[Niko]

NAMLUV to you and me bud

 

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

Looks awesome!!

[Niko]

Ground still retains a lot of warmth at this time of year.

Yup...I agree.

[OKwx2k4]

@ Tom

 

JB's calling for a serious warm-up across the CONUS base on a recent convection episode in the Indian Ocean which would favor such. CFS keeps us a bit below normal but he feels it's now missing in that direction as well. Are you seeing any strong signal for a relaxation? He does feel things get back to cold and wintery first of December after the ten days of warmth. I think that means his warm spell is roughly the 20-30th

 

I'm starting to find reasons that this warm up has validity. I don't think it will be a full 10 day-er but close. That'll be fine. Then game on.

[Hoosier]

Watch Thursday-Friday. Models are suddenly trending more favorable with the piece of energy that is left behind with the early week storm.

[OKwx2k4]

Watch Thursday-Friday. Models are suddenly trending more favorable with the piece of energy that is left behind with the early week storm.

Yes. Theres a chance that thing becomes a lot more than what we see right now.

[Esquimalt]

I thought mby had zero chance and I've been busy enjoying yesterday's storm. Reckon I'd better start checking up on this next system. Don't really wanna watch snow miss me and hit Niko tho. That'd be rough

Yes I understand your perspective. What I don’t understand is how there can be 12/18 hours of snow in my region and have the models show a grand total of 3 inches. Qpf is decent so I’m not quite sure why the models are giving this output.

[Tom]

Happy Sunday everyone!  First off, I'd like to Thank and Commend all the brave Veterans that have served our great Nation.  We live in the best country in the world that has the strongest military in the world.  Without you, and your sacrifices, our nation would not be the same.  Happy Veterans Day!

 

Edit: Oh, by the way, Happy B Day James!

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

JB's calling for a serious warm-up across the CONUS base on a recent convection episode in the Indian Ocean which would favor such. CFS keeps us a bit below normal but he feels it's now missing in that direction as well. Are you seeing any strong signal for a relaxation? He does feel things get back to cold and wintery first of December after the ten days of warmth. I think that means his warm spell is roughly the 20-30th

Over the last 3-5 days, I've been trying to dial in on a target date (11/22) which I've had in mind since over a week ago that would suggest the beginning of LRC cycle #2.  JB's thinking is pretty much in line with the idea of a warm up post 18th through Thanksgiving week, moreso across the Plains first, then the ridge builds into the MW/GL's.  The farther east and north you go in our sub, it gets a bit tricky bc even though the models are showing a ridge at 500mb, this time of year, esp with a snow cover across S Canada, you get sneaky blocking HP's come down south which bleed colder air across the norther sub in this type of pattern.  Nearly all the models are now highlighting a trough build across the west/SW Week 2 which "fits" what happened during the first 10 days of October that sparked the extremely wet pattern to open the month. 

 

With that being said, the 11/22 date might need to be adjusted as we get closer towards Thanksgiving week to see where/when the storm systems track on the models.  SW Flow is going to roll Thanksgiving week and to close out the month.  Check this out though, both the GEFS/EPS have trended much colder for a lot of us next weekend into early the following week as they "missed" the NW NAMER ridge.  Big time colder trends have resulted in this correction.

[Tom]

Ongoing wave transfer across Siberia is in an ideal placement to perturb the Polar Vortex.  Models are suggesting it relax next weekend but a more significant disruption may be in the works late Thanksgiving week and to close out the month.  All of this bodes well for extreme cold to seed into North America Thanksgiving week.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

[Minny_Weather]

We went down to the restroom and stood by a heater during halftime. We left after the Ozigbo touchdown made it 54-28. Martinez is the man. I think we may be picked to win the west next year. Frost is building it from the ground up and the improvement is visible.

I'd agree if we get our defensive together

[jaster220]

Coming up on "Big Fitz" day up there also (11-10-1975). Both eerie and cool at the same time.

 

From APX:  https://www.weather.gov/apx/Gales_Of_November

 

Another even stronger storm for the western lakes region was the Fitzgerald II storm of 11-10-98. Fortunately by then, forecasting had advanced substantially and ship's captains and owners had decided to quit rolling the dice with The Witch of November. When I lived in the Grand Traverse region, we had a storm in the early 90's and a lake freighter pulled all the way down into East GT Bay and anchored for several days letting the storm pass. I'm pretty sure the era of GL's ship sinking storms is a thing of the past - thankfully

[Niko]

Mostly cloudy and cold currently w temps at 29F.

[Niko]

It seems like the moderating trend for late next week keeps getting delayed more and more. Temps aren't budging. They stay put into the low to mid 30s for highs. WBN for this time of the year.

[Niko]

Something to monitor closely. Jaster, what do ya think on this system?

 

https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/220875f/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F03%2F32%2F72e250284d35bddff5fe4674e6ed%2Feast-storm-1111-am.jpg

[jaster220]

Over the last 3-5 days, I've been trying to dial in on a target date (11/22) which I've had in mind since over a week ago that would suggest the beginning of LRC cycle #2.  JB's thinking is pretty much in line with the idea of a warm up post 18th through Thanksgiving week, moreso across the Plains first, then the ridge builds into the MW/GL's.  The farther east and north you go in our sub, it gets a bit tricky bc even though the models are showing a ridge at 500mb, this time of year, esp with a snow cover across S Canada, you get sneaky blocking HP's come down south which bleed colder air across the norther sub in this type of pattern.  Nearly all the models are now highlighting a trough build across the west/SW Week 2 which "fits" what happened during the first 10 days of October that sparked the extremely wet pattern to open the month. 

 

With that being said, the 11/22 date might need to be adjusted as we get closer towards Thanksgiving week to see where/when the storm systems track on the models.  SW Flow is going to roll Thanksgiving week and to close out the month.  Check this out though, both the GEFS/EPS have trended much colder for a lot of us next weekend into early the following week as they "missed" the NW NAMER ridge.  Big time colder trends have resulted in this correction.

 

Appreciate your in-depth analysis Tom, and yeah, that's looking like the kind of model "oops" we saw often in 13-14. It's actually kinda fun having the models "miss" the pattern at h5. Just when things look bad/boring there's suddenly a flip and some interesting options pop up! It's great that you're savvy with the LR stuff which most of us other than perhaps OkWx aren't adept at reading. I'm just now after a decade of following models getting a little more comfortable understanding the short range (72 hrs or less) side of things. Because of this, I feel this "sub" has the best balance of peeps posting on both. And it's not just your knowledge, but it's your communication style that's very much appreciated. There are those elsewhere with some LR skills, but they're not there to assist others in a constructive way. Oh sure, they'll chime in when something I post seems to against their "take" but otherwise you won't see them being helpful in any form or fashion. In contrast your style gets high kudos!

 

Now we just need to get Chi-town a legit snowstorm 

[jaster220]

Something to monitor closely. Jaster, what do ya think on this system?

 

https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/220875f/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F03%2F32%2F72e250284d35bddff5fe4674e6ed%2Feast-storm-1111-am.jpg

 

From what I saw and commented on last night, that's a reasonable blend of model trends. I'd be thrilled with more SN (tho I was hoping to cut my grass one more time, lol)

 

Edit-12z NAM is slower and more organized. Seems stronger and throws more precip northward into the cold side of the storm. If you look at the NWS headlines for snow down south it seems to match those by the local offices in KS and MO. Per the GFS, there shouldn't be any headlines in some of those areas. I think the trend will be our friend. Nonetheless, it's early in the season and we may fight warm conditions like we saw Friday morning.

[jaster220]

Happy Sunday everyone!  First off, I'd like to Thank and Commend all the brave Veterans that have served our great Nation.  We live in the best country in the world that has the strongest military in the world.  Without you, and your sacrifices, our nation would not be the same.  Happy Veterans Day!

 

Edit: Oh, by the way, Happy B Day James!

 

This x100

[Niko]

From what I saw and commented on last night, that's a reasonable blend of model trends. I'd be thrilled with more SN (tho I was hoping to cut my grass one more time, lol)

 

Edit-12z NAM is slower and more organized. Seems stronger and throws more precip northward into the cold side of the storm. If you look at the NWS headlines for snow down south it seems to match those by the local offices in KS and MO. Per the GFS, there shouldn't be any headlines in some of those areas. I think the trend will be our friend. Nonetheless, it's early in the season and we may fight warm conditions like we saw Friday morning.

Remember about a week ago when it rained all day here in SEMI and parts of the evening as well and told ya that if this was snow, it would have been ova a ft. Well, I am thinking this might be the same scenario (trackwise) but this time, colder air is in place. NOAA has a couple of inches for me regarding this storm. We will see how all this plays out. Very interesting storm to say the least. Anything west from you is nothing, just dry and cold. Although, it can still hit parts of the extreme eastern side of Illinois. Lets see what the models show in the 4pm discussion.

 

Yes, I wanna cut my grass at least one more time. Not sure if I should have my service continued in Springtime again or have them come one more time for fertilizer b4 Winter..

[Niko]

Cloudy and cold w a wcf at 22F.

[Niko]

There is also a system to watch for late Th-Fri for some posters on here. Heads-up on that one.

[Money]

There is also a system to watch for late Th-Fri for some posters on here. Heads-up on that one.

That one is the one to watch for you guys

[Thunder98]

Fargo has a forecast low of 5F on Tuesday morning!

 

[james1976]

Happy Sunday everyone! First off, I'd like to Thank and Commend all the brave Veterans that have served our great Nation. We live in the best country in the world that has the strongest military in the world. Without you, and your sacrifices, our nation would not be the same. Happy Veterans Day!

 

Edit: Oh, by the way, Happy B Day James!

Thanks Tom!

[jaster220]

That one is the one to watch for you guys

 

 

Looks too warm at upper levels

[westMJim]

I see GRR reported 3.8" of snow yesterday and that tied the record for the date. Still have a solid snow cover on the grass and roof tops here at my house. Snow on the ground for two days is kind of rare for November. It is cloudy and a cold 32 here at this time.

[Niko]

That one is the one to watch for you guys

Too warm

[OKwx2k4]

From APX: https://www.weather.gov/apx/Gales_Of_November

 

Another even stronger storm for the western lakes region was the Fitzgerald II storm of 11-10-98. Fortunately by then, forecasting had advanced substantially and ship's captains and owners had decided to quit rolling the dice with The Witch of November. When I lived in the Grand Traverse region, we had a storm in the early 90's and a lake freighter pulled all the way down into East GT Bay and anchored for several days letting the storm pass. I'm pretty sure the era of GL's ship sinking storms is a thing of the past - thankfully

Yes, thankfully that era is over. I do remember "Fitz 2" vaguely, but not in detail. I just always had a soft spot for the history of the Fitzgerald and the old great lakes captains. They had steel in their nerve back in the day.

[OKwx2k4]

I don't know if I mentioned it here earlier or not, but I am incredibly grateful and in debt of life to the great veterans of this nation. They laid down and risked their lives for me and this wonderful country and I will continue to believe in, honor, demonstrate and live out what I know they paid the ultimate price for. So, humbly, Thank you very much veterans.

[Andie]

DFW area will see a high of 45 Monday and Tuesday.

Low at 28 and 26 respectively.

 

We'll see .50" rain beginning tonight to noon tomorrow.

 

Brrr, for No. Tx. This is a hard freeze. We usually don't see this till later.

[OKwx2k4]

I really think the models just flashed a fluke of a pattern that warmed everything over here up when it should not have at all. I see absolutely no indication at all of why there would be anything but maybe moderation back to normal before a blast returns.

 

Longer term,

Tom wrote on the stratosphere (he says it better than I can repeat) and when you couple his thoughts with the new (FINALLY!!!!!) trends in both AO/NAO domains going negative, theres no stopping this thing.

[jaster220]

Marshall is outside both boxes, but I could see snow-on-snow by Nov 12th if all goes right.

 

[jaster220]

Snow in Marshall is on shady sides of buildings or patchy at best. In contrast to Kzoo where I saw a good 3+ OTG this afternoon. It was quite amazing to see considering we had a lot of green trees about 3 wks ago.