November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Waking up this morning to the coldest temps since early April with a temp of 21F and a biting WC in the single digits.  My goodness, you guys in IA/MN are seeing temps as low as the single digits!  Just incredible to see this type of cold without any substantial snow cover.  I guess the "Nanook from the North" arrived early this year.

[westMJim]

Here at my house I just recorded 2.8" of snow overnight. This morning the grass and the road are snow covered.  The lowest temperature here was 24° but it has warmed up and the current temperature is 29° 

[jaster220]

Same here in Marshall. Everything's covered in a white blank with some snow blowing off roofs and occasional flakes flying about. Looks like December 10th. I think most of my 1.5" fell in a couple bursts as LES streamers made it all the way on a NW wind. Highest report I see into GRR is 6.2" north of me in Hastings. As expected, due to the warm lake and strong winds (55 mph gusts at the lakeshore overnight) the heaviest snows were displaced about one county inland. I don't think the due W fetch that was forecasted and shown on several futurecast models/maps ever materialized. Part 2 ended up being just an intense line of +IP yesterday evening. Combined with strong winds, it made my evening commute a bit dicey as the temps were then hitting 30F and it was hard to tell how slick the x-way was becoming. All in all, a nice storm, tho not terribly moist. Had this been normal winter time with a snow pack in place, there would've been serious blowing and drifting kind of conditions.

[Tom]

Record breaking cold centered across the heartland this morning....some places setting new monthly record low temps..

 

 

 

http://coolwx.com/record/records.daily.usa.large.png

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like the weather station at home bottomed out at 7F last night. Snow still covering the ground keeping it extra frigid. Flying home from Nashville tomorrow, where it’s a balmy 26F. People here are freaking out.

[Tom]

@ Okwx, trends are in your favor for some snow on Monday...

 

 

 

[Niko]

@Jaster

 

How much snow did ya pick up buddy? I was just under 2".

[Niko]

Currently at 26F w mostly cloudy skies. A few snowshowers dusted my area this morning. Winds are gusty as well. WCF in the upper S.D's n lower teens.

[gabel23]

@ Okwx, trends are in your favor for some snow on Monday...

 

 

 

Boomer Sooner state looking good for some decent snows out of this. I received less than an inch from this last storm but got 3" in October; after this storm places in Oklahoma will double my season total! 

[Niko]

GFS has trended slightly west for the late Mon-Tues storm like most other models. If this trend continues, my area could be in for a real good snowfall. Lets wait n see what happens. As for now, models are all starting to come together on a possible hit SEMI snowstorm.

[gimmesnow]

Another really early open at the ski hill this year! This cold wave is going to be awesome. They are set to blow a ton of snow monday and tuesday if they don't get it done this weekend.

[Money]

GFS has trended slightly west for the late Mon-Tues storm like most other models. If this trend continues, my area could be in for a real good snowfall. Lets wait n see what happens. As for now, models are all starting to come together on a possible hit SEMI snowstorm.

Nope

[Madtown]

south n East of here

[Money]

south n East of here

Believe in the West trend! That’s trended like 15 miles in two days

[CentralNebWeather]

Sitting with my son at the Husker game. Don’t remember being this cold before

[james1976]

It's only made it to 22 so far. I wonder what the record cold high is. Cloudy now too.

[gabel23]

Sitting with my son at the Husker game. Don’t remember being this cold before

Coldest home game since 1993 Oklahoma. You might remember, I’m thinking there was an ice storm that day?! The temp was 17 but for some reason I remember we had tickets but didn’t go because of ice....

[Bryan1117]

Sitting with my son at the Husker game. Don’t remember being this cold before

Wow, I was outside for a total of 15 minutes today and it was cold enough, couldn't imagine sitting outside in this cold for almost 4 hours... at least the game was great though and NU proved its the best 3 win team in the nation right now LOL! 

[snowstorm83]

I was also at the game today. I layered up nicely, but should've worn an extra pair of socks or something. Alcohol helped. By far the coldest (out of the 5) games I've been to and the first win I've witnessed! 

[CentralNebWeather]

Coldest home game since 1993 Oklahoma. You might remember, I’m thinking there was an ice storm that day?! The temp was 17 but for some reason I remember we had tickets but didn’t go because of ice....

I mentioned that to my son today. My wife and I had just started dating and that is the first game we went to together.

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow, I was outside for a total of 15 minutes today and it was cold enough, couldn't imagine sitting outside in this cold for almost 4 hours... at least the game was great though and NU proved its the best 3 win team in the nation right now LOL!

We went down to the restroom and stood by a heater during halftime. We left after the Ozigbo touchdown made it 54-28. Martinez is the man. I think we may be picked to win the west next year. Frost is building it from the ground up and the improvement is visible.

[hlcater]

We went down to the restroom and stood by a heater during halftime. We left after the Ozigbo touchdown made it 54-28. Martinez is the man. I think we may be picked to win the west next year. Frost is building it from the ground up and the improvement is visible.

You'll probably beat Iowa and the nutcase known as Stanley.

[gabel23]

I mentioned that to my son today. My wife and I had just started dating and that is the first game we went to together.

So am I crazy or was there an ice storm followed by cold that day?! It’s been driving me crazy, it was either that game or Colorado sometime in the early to mid 90’s.

[OKwx2k4]

I mentioned that to my son today. My wife and I had just started dating and that is the first game we went to together.

That's one of those once in a lifetime games that I was glad I got to watch when I was a kid. (On tv of course)

[OKwx2k4]

Thanks folks. Yeah this snow event looking like a solid 2". That's pretty nice.

 

All leaves literally froze off last night at 15°. Onlh the old stiff oak trees' leaves are trying to hang and they won't make it til Wednesday. Nuked them all in 1 day. Instant winter. I just don't know how else to describe it. There are whole tree molts of green leaves on the ground and I have never saw that before. They just literally froze off like I had suggested a few weeks ago. Too cool!

[CentralNebWeather]

That's one of those once in a lifetime games that I was glad I got to watch when I was a kid. (On tv of course)

I believe Nebraska beat Oklahoma that day 24-7. Tommy Frazier was a sophomore. I just asked my wife a little bit ago what she remembered and she said our boots were in 6 inches of snow all game but the sun was shining.

[OKwx2k4]

I believe Nebraska beat Oklahoma that day 24-7. Tommy Frazier was a sophomore. I just asked my wife a little bit ago what she remembered and she said our boots were in 6 inches of snow all game but the sun was shining.

I looked it up. 11-26-93. Post Thanksgiving Saturday. That would have been so brutal. Cold autumn. I remember massive cold later in the year also of I'm not mistaken.

[Niko]

Currently at 27F w cloudy skies.

[Esquimalt]

GFS has trended slightly west for the late Mon-Tues storm like most other models. If this trend continues, my area could be in for a real good snowfall. Lets wait n see what happens. As for now, models are all starting to come together on a possible hit SEMI snowstorm.

I almost feel that the old GFS snow maps are underestimating the intensity (or the snow maps aren't representative of the QPF potential being shown)...thoughts?  

[OKwx2k4]

Stronger. I love this. Getting it's TRUE Arklatex flavor on in this run. Can you all imagine the real deal this winter?

[jaster220]

@Jaster

 

How much snow did ya pick up buddy? I was just under 2".

 

Between 2.5 and 3"  The morning's snow melted ofc, and I wasn't here to see how much fell before that happened. I also didn't measure the overnight LES until later in the morning. The car seemed to have more on it than my deck which I found a bit odd.

[Esquimalt]

Spent the day in Kitchener/Waterloo.  Some rather heavy lake effect bands rolled through, one when we were on the highway.  I counted 7 crashes, including witnessing a semi t-bone a spinning car.  No idea on the injuries but I'm praying it wasn't bad.  In the end approximately 1.5 inches in sheltered areas around here, not bad for what was expected to be a 0.5 inch day.

[jaster220]

Stronger. I love this. Getting it's TRUE Arklatex flavor on in this run. Can you all imagine the real deal this winter?

Screenshot_20181110-220952_Puffin.jpg

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7.png

 

My furnace cycling and the snow piles on my back porch both are telling me it's #winter already, lol.

Man, you're looking good, and wow at TX panhandle amts. Still looks like this has a shot at coming further west. Now that I got this nice little LES, I'm itching to get buried

[jaster220]

Spent the day in Kitchener/Waterloo.  Some rather heavy lake effect bands rolled through, one when we were on the highway.  I counted 7 crashes, including witnessing a semi t-bone a spinning car.  No idea on the injuries but I'm praying it wasn't bad.  In the end approximately 1.5 inches in sheltered areas around here, not bad for what was expected to be a 0.5 inch day.

 

Ouch! Scary stuff. I saw one SUV in the ditch left-over from last night. I think SWMI peeps did pretty good with ample warning and the WWA headline that was hoisted a long time in advance. Glad you caught some SNOW!

[OKwx2k4]

My furnace cycling and the snow piles on my back porch both are telling me it's #winter already, lol.

Man, you're looking good, and wow at TX panhandle amts. Still looks like this has a shot at coming further west. Now that I got this nice little LES, I'm itching to get buried

The further NW it cuts after going southeast of me, the more snow I see.

 

There are still 3-5 other different types of storms in the pattern I have saw and the BSR appears to be telegraphing a December to remember after the break coming up, so what more could I ask for? Just incredible. I'm ready to start winter I guess, whether I wanted to or not.

[Niko]

Between 2.5 and 3"  The morning's snow melted ofc, and I wasn't here to see how much fell before that happened. I also didn't measure the overnight LES until later in the morning. The car seemed to have more on it than my deck which I found a bit odd.

Its funny how the snow melted so fast, considering low sun angle this time of the year. Temps did remain above freezing, but in the 30s all day.

[OKwx2k4]

Theres an outside shot still that the storm simply never slacks off in the middle and all the state gets smashed. These autumn storms are very dynamic down here.

[Esquimalt]

Ouch! Scary stuff. I saw one SUV in the ditch left-over from last night. I think SWMI peeps did pretty good with ample warning and the WWA headline that was hoisted a long time in advance. Glad you caught some SNOW!

Thanks, glad you did too.  The Friday event was all rain in Toronto so we were due for some snow.  What are your thoughts on the Tuesday system?  There have been multiple model runs this evening showing another system pulling in right behind the main one late on the 15th.  

[Niko]

I hear the NAM looks great for next weeks storm for SEMI. Sweet!

[Niko]

I almost feel that the old GFS snow maps are underestimating the intensity (or the snow maps aren't representative of the QPF potential being shown)...thoughts?  

I would not count the old GFS. This model has fallen behind accuracy. The new GFS has been upgraded and behaves a bit better. Lets see how it does this Winter.