Geos Posted March 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 I'll tell you what Geos, I don't put in much of any faith in long range forecasts. The LRC is a nice tool, but yeah I normally don't look out past 1 week. I guess I have been noticing a trend lately on the GFS at least for showing a lot of precip here in Nebraska the last week in March and into April and when you've had the winter we've had, we tend to grasp at anything Tom has been saying the LRC points to an active period during that time frame, but if the LRC is a repeating pattern, than we shouldn't get anything since we have missed out almost all winter Well everything starts moving positions in Spring though. So the pattern might repeat itself, but it could shift west, east or north with time. Southern jet should start having more influence next month. (inching northwards) Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 19, 2014 Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 Some better returns have actually developed over the area. Seeing some nice light rain right now. I'll be able to give an amount when I leave for school in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 19, 2014 Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 A bit late, but Skilling had snow for Mon/Tues with highs between 31-34. I think he mentioned it being one to watch, but I was having a conversation at the time, so may have misheard. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 Borderline RN here with -fog. 38° A nice change from the same ol' weather. Lot of birds singing already. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 19, 2014 Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 Looks like I finished with about .10" of rain. Didn't think it would be too much more. Had some nice rain pass through late last night, but it looked like after that we were going to get dry slotted, and I assume that's what happened as the SLP passed through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 19, 2014 Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 .12" here. Do I make the drive to Minneapolis Thurs night or Fri morning? What say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 .12" here. Do I make the drive to Minneapolis Thurs night or Fri morning? What say you? Dry and probably with rising temperatures that night. --- Socked in with fog pretty good along the lakeshore right now. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 19, 2014 Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 Unless you like weak sauce clippers the GFS is boring. Actually turns up and down seasonal middle of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 19, 2014 Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 Snow sleet mix for about the last 30 min or so, fog has lifted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 Unless you like weak sauce clippers the GFS is boring. Actually turns up and down seasonal middle of next week I see that one on Tuesday. Beyond that it looks pretty zonal except for one cool shot. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 19, 2014 Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 Saw some snow for a little bit here around 9 and lasted maybe half an hour. Came down at a decent rate for a little bit. Obviously, nothing stuck to the ground, except maybe a couple spots on the ground, but melted already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 Near 40° at UGN, so pretty mild for snow still. Band that came through by you East Dubzz is drying out as it heads east. Still a little foggy here in Racine. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 19, 2014 Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 just looked out and i have little snow piles around and by early to mid week will be cold for nextweek and after that zonal flow will be bringing pacific air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 About 0.20" fell at home this morning. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 19, 2014 Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 according to accuweather that next week will be colder the week after we will have seasonal temps and the 2nd week of april we will have normal to above normal temps temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 19, 2014 Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 The 1st potential 60 degree day of the year is on the way Friday. I could see Spring Fever in full effect Friday afternoon. Without a doubt you'll see ppl in their drop-top convertibles cruisin' around blasting music. I'm sure tons of ppl will be out enjoying this weather since it wont last too long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 Temp has been steady basically all day (daylight hours). Didn't notice any backlash rain or snow in Racine. EURO kept 98% of the snow north of the WI/IL border on this entire run. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted March 19, 2014 Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 The 1st potential 60 degree day of the year is on the way Friday. I could see Spring Fever in full effect Friday afternoon. Without a doubt you'll see ppl in their drop-top convertibles cruisin' around blasting music. I'm sure tons of ppl will be out enjoying this weather since it wont last too long. My forecast only calls for 47...and I'm sure it will adjust lower as we get closer! No convertibles for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2014 Today was one of the more dark and gloomy days of the month. Peaked at 41°. Getting kind of windy out there now. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Today was one of the more dark and gloomy days of the month. Peaked at 41°. Getting kind of windy out there now. Yes! It was terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ah beautiful out right now. Reminds me of my childhood. IDK hard to complain but type of weather that makes me passionate. To cold or to warm makes me irate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 I meant air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ah beautiful out right now. Reminds me of my childhood. IDK hard to complain but type of weather that makes me passionate. To cold or to warm makes me irate. Haha. It is a nice change. Not even below freezing yet. Can actually smell the dampness outside. ... well actually earlier more so.Should be able to open the windows Friday. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 I am ready to get a tan and 90s GEOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ouch mid 30's early next week. When will this ever end. Looks like no snow at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ouch mid 30's early next week. When will this ever end. Looks like no snow at least.after nextweek when the polar vortex collapses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 I am ready to get a tan and 90s GEOS. I'd go into shock if it warmed that quickly! Ouch mid 30's early next week. When will this ever end. Looks like no snow at least. Well, we're getting closer to April at least. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 I still think the GFS is out to lunch with the pattern in the long range. Both EURO/CFSv2 support another arctic blast last days of March into the 1st week of April. LRC also fits with the set up as we head into April. EURO ensembles also showing a couple cutters last days of March and one during the 1st week in April. Cold follows each storm and fits with the SW Flow that is anticipated to develop last week of March into April. Still seeing SSW at 10mb & 30mb right over the pole and in Siberia that support the idea of more late season arctic blasts with cross polar flow. I'm unable to post the CFSv2 week 3 temp map but it's showing anomalously cold air invading the Midwest/Lakes region. Still not out of the woods for snow storms. AO is also poised to settle near neutral which would support storm development and blocking, reversing its +AO trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Once the stratospheric vortex is dead the troposphere version will follow the same demise quickly and then blocking will check out until next year. 2-4 weeks is a good gauge on how long we have before the cold air masses quit coming down. 2 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 I agree, we most likely have till about mid April to see some true wintry weather. It will let up in April and not as intense as it has been in March, but wouldn't discount small scale rouge snow systems in late April like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 I just noticed the 18z GFS never finished its run. Stopped at 174 hours. And now the 0z run hasn't even started... on the ncep site. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Both 18z and 0z GFs showing a swath of 4-7 inches of snow from W WI through most of S. WI with more further west you head around the HR 126-138 period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Once the stratospheric vortex is dead the troposphere version will follow the same demise quickly and then blocking will check out until next year. 2-4 weeks is a good gauge on how long we have before the cold air masses quit coming down.i agree geos andrew at the weather centre said on tuesday evening on a post that the polar vortex is collapsing and we are going thru the final warming in the stratosphere so that means that winter is ending soon and that means that the blocking goes with it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 i agree geos andrew at the weather centre said on tuesday evening on a post that the polar vortex is collapsing and we are going thru the final warming in the stratosphere so that means that winter is ending soon and that means that the blocking goes with it too. Yeah I'm sure he'll do an update pretty soon as well. --- Looks like some sort of lake influence on the snow totals on the GFS. 2" line barely touches it. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Nice comparison between last year, 2012, and this year so far. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 It has really sky rocketed as of late and has been rather persistent since January and almost in a step ladder formation. It's just reaching its peak intensity and last year it reached peak intensity end of January. We may be dealing with cold farther out into Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 cold for months yet... i agree geos andrew at the weather centre said on tuesday evening on a post that the polar vortex is collapsing and we are going thru the final warming in the stratosphere so that means that winter is ending soon and that means that the blocking goes with it too. what blocking.. there has been zero all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 On a side note, they made a discovery tonight that goes a long way in proving the Big Bang Theory (the actual scientific theory, not the show )... Was expecting to see it from a science geek in another forum, but guess they hadn't got to it yet. Google if, it's some pretty interesting stuff, and I really don't even understand it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 So apparently is snowed overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Dubuque got 1.5"!!... Was not expecting that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts