March 2014 Observations and Discussions Part II

[Geos]

Nothing too exciting on the Euro. 2" this time of year will last about 4 or 5 hours lol.

 

True!

 

Into the low 40s this afternoon doesn't feel bad at all. Wow, the EURO pushed low 60s into northern IL Friday!

 

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EPV forcing still pointing towards the Equator and weak.

 

 

I'm not going to count on anything past day 10. Solar activity could increase and throw everything for a loop imo.

Been some spikes in the last 2 weeks. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/k-index.html

[tim the weatherman]

True!

 

Into the low 40s this afternoon doesn't feel bad at all. Wow, the EURO pushed low 60s into northern IL Friday!

 

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EPV forcing still pointing towards the Equator and weak.

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/fluxes.gif

 

I'm not going to count on anything past day 10. Solar activity could increase and throw everything for a loop imo.

Been some spikes in the last 2 weeks. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/k-index.html

enjoy this as you can by nextweek the artic air is making a comeback to the nation's 2 third of the conus.

[tim the weatherman]

FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE

RELATIVELY CHANGEABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  THE LONGER RANGE

GUIDANCE FAST...LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER THE REGION...KEEPING PERIODIC

CHANCES FOR PCPN IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST.  FOR

TEMPERATURES...THE FAST...FLAT FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY

STEADY AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS.
 

KREIN

 

[Geos]

enjoy this as you can by nextweek the artic air is making a comeback to the nation's 2 third of the conus.

 

EURO backed off the 20s for next week. Low to mid 30s for the most part. Which is still cold, but not like the 0z run or 12z run yesterday.

[tim the weatherman]

EURO backed off the 20s for next week. Low to mid 30s for the most part. Which is still cold, but not like the 0z run or 12z run yesterday.

just found out by the weather channel that the cold air forecasted for nextweek is short lived that right now we are battling temprature swings and by the first of april this will relax it self.

[FiNsTa]

just found out by the weather channel that the cold air forecasted for nextweek is short lived that right now we are battling temprature swings and by the first of april this will relax it self.

Can you stop contradicting yourself and please have some sense for once?

[FiNsTa]

True!

 

Into the low 40s this afternoon doesn't feel bad at all. Wow, the EURO pushed low 60s into northern IL Friday!

 

---

 

EPV forcing still pointing towards the Equator and weak.

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/fluxes.gif

 

I'm not going to count on anything past day 10. Solar activity could increase and throw everything for a loop imo.

Been some spikes in the last 2 weeks. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/k-index.html

We'll only see those 60° temps if winds are offshore.

[tim the weatherman]

Impressive run on the CFSv2 for temps in April...incredible pattern....1st 15 days of April are just as bad for it being this far out that the model is seeing.

 

Folks, I think what we are about to experience is something coming out of the move thriller..."The Day After Tomorrow"!!!!

Lol this is the kind of pattren you see in jan or feb.

[Geos]

We'll only see those 60° temps if winds are offshore.

 

They're supposed to be in most of Lake County. 

 

GFS MOS guidance suggests the same.

 

Almost down to snow piles only now. Hit 44° today.

 

Little tributary of the Des Plaines River open and flowing this afternoon.

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 trending colder for next week...

[tbone8]

Can you stop contradicting yourself and please have some sense for once?

 

That ignore button in the control panel has sure come in handy...

[Geos]

T-storms are possible later this evening across northern IL and southern WI south of the low track.

They should start developing in Iowa soon.

[tim the weatherman]

just got good news from andrew at weather centre that we are going through the final warming of the ssw event that the polar vortex is showing a sign of collapsing so that means that winter is ending that the polar vortex is very fragile right now.

[midwest buildit]

sure glad that andrew knows whats going on that this winter is ending soon and that the cold air will not be back.

[Geos]

just got good news from andrew at weather centre that we are going through the final warming of the ssw event that the polar vortex is showing a sign of collapsing so that means that winter is ending.

 

That's a good read.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/

 

Right on time too. Usually happens the week of the Vernal Equinox.

 

In 2-4 weeks the jet stream can be expected to loose the great wavelengths it has going now.

[East Dubzz]

Glad I remembered to put my rain guage out. Will be interesting to see how much moisture we get..

[Geos]

Glad I remembered to put my rain guage out. Will be interesting to see how much moisture we get..

 

I've been able to get away with leaving mine out for the last 7 days.

Radar returns starting to light up southwest of you.

 

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Yeah stratospheric winds will reverse the rest of the way down as we get closer to April 1st. That's what happens around this time of year without failure.

 

Sun will rise at the North Pole on Thursday and not set until September 23rd.

[NEJeremy]

I'm at least somewhat excited with what the long range(fantasy land) of the GFS has been showing for several runs now. Tons of moisture (1.5-3" of qpf), and has been showing a big snowstorm right around 4/1 here. An earlier run today gave us almost 2" of qpf all as snow 4/1-4/2!!

[East Dubzz]

I've been able to get away with leaving mine out for the last 7 days.

 

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Yeah stratospheric winds will reverse the rest of the way down as we get closer to April 1st. That's what happens around this time of year without failure.

 

Sun will rise at the North Pole on Thursday and not set until September 23rd.

I have had mine out as well, but I've had it in the snow because the ground was too hard and as the snow melted, it kept felling to the ground. I didn't actually have to put it out, just had to pick it up and was actually able to stick it in the ground!

[Money]

Love how my post got deleted (Geos)

[tim the weatherman]

I'm at least somewhat excited with what the long range(fantasy land) of the GFS has been showing for several runs now. Tons of moisture (1.5-3" of qpf), and has been showing a big snowstorm right around 4/1 here. An earlier run today gave us almost 2" of qpf all as snow 4/1-4/2!!

really really really as of now that the ssw event is occuring so that means that in 2 to 4 weeks winter is ending and this model is so in fantasy land and we are going thru the final warming.

[Geos]

Love how my post got deleted (Geos)

 

Hey - Weatherman was quoting the article nothing else. There was no need for that comment.

 

FYI^ - he quoted the article again correctly above^.

[Geos]

Pretty remarkable snowfall tallies in MN. A few in WI too.

 

 

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
9.50 COLLEGEVILLE MN STEARNS 0425 PM
9.00 AVON MN STEARNS 0145 PM
8.00 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0424 PM
7.50 8 W ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0400 PM
7.50 ST CLOUD STATE UNIV MN STEARNS 0100 PM
7.10 8 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0409 PM
7.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0330 PM
7.00 NEW MUNICH MN STEARNS 0300 PM
7.00 MORA MN KANABEC 1115 AM
6.50 HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0451 PM
6.50 ST CLOUD AIRPORT MN STEARNS 0105 PM
6.00 SARTELL MN STEARNS 0124 PM
5.80 2 S VILLARD MN POPE 0300 PM
5.70 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 1141 AM
5.00 CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 1250 PM
4.00 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0345 PM

 

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
7.60 4 S BRUNO MN PINE 0420 PM
7.20 2 SW HINCKLEY MN PINE 0407 PM
7.20 SEELEY WI SAWYER 1231 PM
6.80 FINLAYSON MN PINE 0500 PM
6.80 WEBB LAKE WI BURNETT 0235 PM
6.00 HAYWARD WI SAWYER 0530 PM
6.00 1 S MOOSE LAKE MN CARLTON 0508 PM
6.00 GILE WI IRON 0300 PM
5.20 8 ESE PINE CITY MN PINE 1134 AM
5.10 HOLYOKE MN CARLTON 0555 PM
4.50 OULU WI BAYFIELD 0604 PM
4.50 HAWTHORNE WI DOUGLAS 0450 PM
4.00 LAKE NEBAGAMON WI DOUGLAS 0319 PM
 

 

 

[tim the weatherman]

I've been able to get away with leaving mine out for the last 7 days.

Radar returns starting to light up southwest of you.

 

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Yeah stratospheric winds will reverse the rest of the way down as we get closer to April 1st. That's what happens around this time of year without failure.

 

Sun will rise at the North Pole on Thursday and not set until September 23rd.

geos i have to agree with you.

[Money]

Hey - Weatherman was quoting the article nothing else. There was no need for that comment.

 

FYI^ - he quoted the article again correctly above^.

 

He's a troll. There's no way a person can change his mind day after day from being winter is over on March 16th to winter coming back to winter being over etc.

[Geos]

geos i have to agree with you.

 

That's what happens. The Antarctic polar vortex can last a little longer, because it's stronger over the colder continent, but even that one breaks by mid-April.

 

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That's good news the models are showing moisture for the Plains state - Nebraska finally!!!

 

Maybe if Jeremy gets a snowfall in April he'll end up with green grass early. Like how that article MW Built it posted last week.

[Geos]

He's a troll. There's no way a person can change his mind day after day from being winter is over on March 16th to winter coming back to winter being over etc.

 

Forecasters change their minds all the time. Heck it looked like to me in really early March, the pattern would break up by then. Even JB thought this winter would flip off like a switch at one time last Month.

 

One thing we've seen is a big decrease in snowfall in our local region due to this split flow pattern.

 

For the record, I think we rely on computer models a bit too much. We should be too quick to jump on one particular run either. After several consistent runs - yes.

 

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Might want to read the new discussion from the CPC in College Park, MD. 8-14 day 1st paragraph.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

[midwest buildit]

i wonder what a nice couple hour snowstorm with thunder/lightning would do for the growth of everything about the 1st or 2nd week of april. lol

[Money]

Forecasters change their minds all the time. Heck it looked like back in really early March, the pattern would break up by then. 

 

One thing we've seen is a big decrease in snowfall in our local region due to this split flow pattern.

 

For the record, I think we rely on computer models a bit too much. We should be too quick to jump on one particular run either. After several consistent runs - yes.

 

He said Chicago would get 14-18 inches of snow when the models showed 2-3 at most.

 

He's a troll.

[tim the weatherman]

He said Chicago would get 14-18 inches of snow when the models showed 2-3 at most.

 

He's a troll.

first of all iam not a troll that goes and has to be relying at some  fantasy computer forecast models that dont predict the weather correctly besides i was going the what they we're showing.

[NEJeremy]

really really really as of now that the ssw event is occuring so that means that in 2 to 4 weeks winter is ending and this model is so in fantasy land and we are going thru the final warming.

 

again, your run on sentences make it impossible for most of us to understand... I'm confused by what the point of the "really really really" is and the fact that you now say in 2-4 weeks winter is ending, when it was supposed to end 2 days ago. I know we are in GFS fantasy range, but the GFS runs are still falling within your new "2-4 weeks" when winter will end.

[MKEstorm]

first of all iam not a troll that goes and has to be relying at some  fantasy computer forecast models that dont predict the weather correctly besides i was going the what they we're showing.

 

Whatever sources you rely on don't predict the weather correctly either!

[Tom]

Back in February I made a gutsy forecast and NOT calling for any flip in March when JB was calling for it initially, then he changed his forecast and went Cold.  That is one of the reasons I like using the LRC in predicting forecasts weeks in advance.  I wonder if he knows about the LRC since he definitely likes using analogs in his forecasting and understands the overall weather pattern is cyclical if you look at decadal forecasting.

[Geos]

I will say Weatherman - several of your posts have been confusing when you leave out periods especially. I'm used to reading people's (friends) postings in a bunch of different fashions, so usually I can figure them out in the end. Ending your sentences and trying to use good grammar goes for anyone though.

 

Anyways, since when do we put much credit into the GFS beyond 150 hours or the EURO at the end of its run?

I know the last two winters we sure couldn't. We would have had two really good winters back to back if everything came true 7-14 days out! lol

[Geos]

Back in February I made a gutsy forecast and NOT calling for any flip in March when JB was calling for it initially, then he changed his forecast and went Cold.  That is one of the reasons I like using the LRC in predicting forecasts weeks in advance.  I wonder if he knows about the LRC since he definitely likes using analogs in his forecasting and understands the overall weather pattern is cyclical if you look at decadal forecasting.

 

I have never heard him mention it as long as he's been out of Accuweather.

 

Wish the politics would end on WGN. Want to hear the weather! haha

[midwest buildit]

first of all iam not a troll that goes and has to be relying at some  fantasy computer forecast models that dont predict the weather correctly besides i was going the what they we're showing.

not to be judgmental, but 9 out of 10 of your posts are just quoting what you saw on another website. Most here discuss the models and what they know and come up with there own predictions. Right or wrong, its usually their own. If i wanted to know what all these other places you get your post info from think, ill just go there and read it on my own.

[East Dubzz]

Best of the returns so far are to the west of East Dubuqu, heading NE:

[East Dubzz]

Interesting graphic from the NWS Des Moines: 

[NEJeremy]

I will say Weatherman - several of your posts have been confusing when you leave out periods especially. I'm used to reading people's (friends) postings in a bunch of different fashions, so usually I can figure them out in the end. Ending your sentences and trying to use good grammar goes for anyone though.

 

Anyways, since when do we put much credit into the GFS beyond 150 hours or the EURO at the end of its run?

I know the last two winters we sure couldn't. We would have had two really good winters back to back if everything came true 7-14 days out! lol

 

I'll tell you what Geos, I don't put in much of any faith in long range forecasts. The LRC is a nice tool, but yeah I normally don't look out past 1 week. I guess I have been noticing a trend lately on the GFS at least for showing a lot of precip here in Nebraska the last week in March and into April and when you've had the winter we've had, we tend to grasp at anything  Tom has been saying the LRC points to an active period during that time frame, but if the LRC is a repeating pattern, than we shouldn't get anything since we have missed out almost all winter

[Geos]

Best of the returns so far are to the west of East Dubuqu, heading NE:

 

If convective rains do come in tonight, it's going to be first time this year. Probably get woken up by it too. I sleep pretty well, but a sound I haven't heard since October probably will do that.