March 2014 Observations and Discussions Part II

[NEJeremy]

Now, let me ask everyone, is this a Spring weather pattern???  At the end of the day, this is still a Winter Pattern in late March.  Spring is not around the corner.  Good luck seeing Tulips popping up this month, most likely sometime end of April.  If the extreme cold comes without a snow cover, they will probably freeze and may not come out this Spring which is unheard of.  Our growing season/farmers may have big problems in April if the below normal regime continues.

 

My tulips are already up out of the ground, and have been since the end of February. I was really surprised since it has been so cold and last I heard our ground was frozen 2 feet deep. I guess we haven't had the snow, but have had a lot of the cold. They were poking up slowly, but have really taken off the last week or so, now that we've been getting some warm days. I wonder if they were responding more to the longer days vs the warmer temps at first, and now are growing more quickly due to the warmth we've had here lately...

[tim the weatherman]

al gore should see what this winter was.

[Geos]

My tulips are already up out of the ground, and have been since the end of February. I was really surprised since it has been so cold and last I heard our ground was frozen 2 feet deep. I guess we haven't had the snow, but have had a lot of the cold. They were poking up slowly, but have really taken off the last week or so, now that we've been getting some warm days. I wonder if they were responding more to the longer days vs the warmer temps at first, and now are growing more quickly due to the warmth we've had here lately...

 

Those bulb flowers are really hardy. Doesn't take much of the ground to de-thaw to wake 'em up.

 

My daffodil's are coming up currently.

I remember in 2012, they came up it seemed overnight.

[Tom]

+1 Geo's...remember how the media was exploiting the record warm winter of 2011/12 and using it for their agenda???  Do you see the media talking about the record cold/snow this winter in the U.S. relating it to Global Warming???  How about the 6-12" of snow that hit near Washington D.C. last night???  Haha, Washington must be trying to figure that one out.

 

@ NEJeremy, regarding the Tulips, I was referring to our region.  You have been a lot warmer over the last month or so then around the Great Lakes so I could see the top layer of the ground less affected.

[Geos]

I'm surprised the media covered the polar vortex as extensively as they did. I guess they kind of had to though. That's the sort of thing that is critical to cover no matter what the political agenda is. Lol, you didn't hear Obama or Al Gore talking about it though!

 

 

---

Looking at the moon tonight...

A couple facts about the sun angle vs. the moon's angle. While the sun is highest in the sky the moon is lowest in the sky. About now they have a common angle in the sky this week.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead10/off10_temp.gifthis is for next winterhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead10/off10_prcp.gif

[Tom]

Did you mean to post this map by CPC???  Below normal temperature regime in the Great Lakes region for Mar-May.

[tim the weatherman]

Did you mean to post this map by CPC???  Below normal temperature regime in the Great Lakes region for Mar-May.

i was referring about next winter.

[Money]

GFS still isnt playing ball for the THU/FRI system. Has temps in the 50s for Chicago.

[The Snowman]

GFS still isnt playing ball for the THU/FRI system. Has temps in the 50s for Chicago.

No complaints here, send 60s this way if possible.

 

Nasty case of spring fever starting to appear in my neighborhood.

[Money]

Actually, I take that back. It has the same exact track but it starts out weaker hence the warmer temps. It has 1006 S. Tip of LM at hr 96

[Money]

GGEM HR 96

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif

 

 

Looks colder/weaker/south

 

Would be a solid hit here yet probably although it's tough to see where the 850 line is in that

[Money]

Tom, could you post the GGEM maps when they come out?

 

Thanks.

[tim the weatherman]

http://tribunecwcblog.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/featuregraphic031814.jpg

[Money]

ukie/euro similar to the ggem taking the L through N. IL although they are a bit weaker than the GGEM (1009 ukie, 1006 euro) compared to 1005 on the ggem.

[Geos]

GGEM through 12z Saturday.

 

[NEJeremy]

+1 Geo's...remember how the media was exploiting the record warm winter of 2011/12 and using it for their agenda???  Do you see the media talking about the record cold/snow this winter in the U.S. relating it to Global Warming???  How about the 6-12" of snow that hit near Washington D.C. last night???  Haha, Washington must be trying to figure that one out.

 

@ NEJeremy, regarding the Tulips, I was referring to our region.  You have been a lot warmer over the last month or so then around the Great Lakes so I could see the top layer of the ground less affected.

 

I appear to be in the minority here on this board, but I believe in global warming. There's 7+ BILLION people on this planet, how can we not be affecting the planet? It's also called GLOBAL warming for a reason, because we're talking about the Earth overall. Not just the Great Lakes or the US or North America for temperatures. Each year it seems like the Earth is setting new records, there's always going to be parts of the planet though that are cooler than normal for a season or 2. Right now it's the US's turn....

[Money]

I appear to be in the minority here on this board, but I believe in global warming. There's 7+ BILLION people on this planet, how can we not be affecting the planet? It's also called GLOBAL warming for a reason, because we're talking about the Earth overall. Not just the Great Lakes or the US or North America for temperatures. Each year it seems like the Earth is setting new records, there's always going to be parts of the planet though that are cooler than normal for a season or 2. Right now it's the US's turn....

 

The global temp has trended down in terms of warming overall in the last 20-25 years.

[Money]

There has been a 29 per cent increase in the amount of ocean covered with ice compared to this time last year, the equivalent of 533,000 square miles.

In a rebound from 2012's record low, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia's northern shores, days before the annual re-freeze is even set to begin.

The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific had remained blocked by pack-ice all year, forcing some ships to change their routes.

One ship has now managed to pass through, completing its journey on September 27.

A leaked report to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seen by the Mail on Sunday, has led some scientists to claim that the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century.

If correct, it would contradict computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming. The news comes several years after predictions that the arctic would be ice-free by 2013.

Despite the original forecasts, major climate research centres now accept that there has been a “pause” in global warming since 1997.

The original predictions led to billions being invested in green measures to combat the effects of climate change.

The changing predictions have led to the UN's climate change's body holding a crisis meeting, it was reported, and the IPCC is due to report on the situation in October. A pre-summit meeting will be held later this month.

But the leaked documents are said to show that the governments who fund the IPCC are demanding 1,500 changes to the Fifth Assessment Report - a three-volume study issued every six or seven years – as they claim its current draft does not properly explain the pause.

The extent to which temperatures will rise with carbon dioxide levels and how much of the warming over the past 150 years, a total of 0.8C, is down to human greenhouse gas emissions are key issues in the debate.

The IPCC says it is “95 per cent confident” that global warming has been caused by humans - up from 90 per cent in 2007 – according to the draft report.

However, US climate expert Professor Judith Curry has questioned how this can be true as that rather than increasing in confidence, “uncertainty is getting bigger” within the academic community.

Long-term cycles in ocean temperature, she said, suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend.

At the time some scientists forecast an imminent ice age.

Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin, said: "We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped.”

The IPCC is said to maintain that their climate change models suggest a pause of 15 years can be expected. They have denied that there are any crisis meetings over the report.

Other experts agree that natural cycles cannot explain all of the recorded warming.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10294082/Global-warming-No-actually-were-cooling-claim-scientists.html

 

 

[NEJeremy]

The year 2013 tied with 2003 as the fourth warmest year globally since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20^th century average and marks the 37^th consecutive year (since 1976) that the annual temperature was above the long-term average. Currently, the warmest year on record is 2010, which was 0.66°C (1.19°F) above average. To date, including 2013, 9 of the 10 warmest years on record have occured during the 21^st century. Only one year during the 20^th century—1998—was warmer than 2013. The global annual temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.06°C (0.11°F) per decade since 1880 and at an average rate of 0.16°C (0.28°F) per decade since 1970.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/13

 

There are a million different articles out there for both ways. We all could sit here for days going back and forth so I am going to declare right now that we will agree to disagree

[East Dubzz]

Arguments can go both ways. I will say this, when we beat records from the 1800s and early 1900s and people make a huge deal out of that, what accounted for the weather extremes back then?

[gosaints]

GFS cold dry and lame

[Tom]

Currently ORD is roughly 8F below normal for the month and with the cold coming next week I could see those deficits rise to 10-12F below normal for the month of March.  March may end up being the month which holds the lowest departures to normal since last November.

[Tom]

The LRC's most active pattern begins a 4-6 week period of storminess next week that will last through April.  It's going to be an interesting period and I wouldn't be surprised to see some snowstorms in the month of April. 00z EURO already painting a snowy picture in the central Plains next week and something The Snowman touched about in his blog.

[Money]

Tom, how did the 0z euro look for thu/fri?

[Tom]

Nothing special yet...

[Tom]

Monday's 00z Euro Weeklies Control run was down right brutal for April standards.  Storm after Storm and very cold late season air takes control from the Rockies to the east.  The Plains to the Lakes are in for some wild times in the weeks ahead.  This fits with the LRC's SW Flow next month.  April is setting the stage for yet another record setting cold/snowy open and the entire month for that matter.

[Tom]

ORD LOT Discussion from Izzy mentioned increasing probability of record setting cold next week.  Especially if we can get a snow cover down early next week.  Looking beyond into the 1st week of April, I think there is a good chance to set late season snow cover records in the U.S. from the Plains to the East.  I'm seeing the same extreme winter pattern rolling on into at least the 1st part of April.

[Tom]

12 GGEM unloads the mother load of cold next week into the entire lower 48 from the Rockies to the East!  This would be bad for mid January let alone late March.  Just incredible.

 

20-30F below normal temps in the Heartland/Midwest/Lakes.  A fresh snow cover will only make things worse as we head into April.  What we are about to experience is just mind boggling for so late in the season.

[tim the weatherman]

ORD LOT Discussion from Izzy mentioned increasing probability of record setting cold next week.  Especially if we can get a snow cover down early next week.  Looking beyond into the 1st week of April, I think there is a good chance to set late season snow cover records in the U.S. from the Plains to the East.  I'm seeing the same extreme winter pattern rolling on into at least the 1st part of April.

he also said that we will finish off the month with much below average temps too.

[Niko]

Tom, looks like I have a decent shot at breaking the snowfall record.

[Tom]

Indeed Nikos, IA/IL/IN/MI all have very good chances to break their all-time records if not this month, then even into April.

[Niko]

Awesome Tom. My area keeps breaking records this winter. Yesterday, my local weatherman on Television said that we broke a record on having 76 days this winter below freezing for high temps. Old record was 75 set back in 1978. Just incredible. This winter is all about breaking records.

[Tom]

I expect the record setting trend to continue into the beginning of April.  There is still a world of late season cold on the table as we head into April.  We may be living through a "once in a century" record setting winter here in the Great Lakes.

[Tom]

The winter's back in the 50's/70'/80's were brutal, but a majority of them flipped warm in February or in March.  This winter just keeps on rolling and rolling relentlessly.

[gosaints]

If its gonna be that fooking cold I sure hope storms come with it

[East Dubzz]

If its gonna be that fooking cold I sure hope storms come with it

I second this. But at the same time, if if really is gonna be that cold, you would think there would have to be a decent snow cover at least.

[Money]

Tom, how does the 12z euro look snowfall wise?

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[East Dubzz]

Nothing too exciting on the Euro. 2" this time of year will last about 4 or 5 hours lol.