gosaints Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 GGEM advertising a week of boredom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z GFS for ORD has upper 20's Sunday, near 30F Mon, mid 20's Tue, near 32F Wed. Pretty brutal 4-day stretch for late March standards if you ask me. Would you beg to differ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 I knew it was gonna be cold today! I knew we wouldn't hit the 50's! Heck, we won't even get to 40 today!Springtime in Wisconsin! You gotta love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 About 38° here. Darn wind off the lake. Might be able to get a brief warm wedge later before CAA arrives and winds go SW. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 In Rock Island today, almost up to 60 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hey Tom, how does the GGEM look snowfall wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Plenty of rain on the GGEM.. And warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z GGEM... It is showing a weak lower lakes cutter thru N IN next week with lots of moisture (over 1" qpf) but its not that cold this run. If it can deepen and strengthen, all bets are off and it will get colder. Let's see how this system evolves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'd like to point out that the methods Tom has been using, I've used myself on my blog, and they've proven to be dead on this winter from not only my viewpoint, but upon asking others what they thought of my accuracy this winter. Sure, we can get caught up in some spring fever or the desire for winter to never end, but I see no fault on Tom's part- his reasoning is valid, and while it may not evolve exactly as was projected, tools such as the LRC or the East Asian correlation have had major success in not only this winter, but last winter and years before that.  Pointing out long rage guidance projections that seem to directly defy what people like Tom are saying is rubbish- everyone here knows the volatility of models, especially beyond 120 hours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 EURO, GFS still showing a shift at 240 hours.  11-15 day  1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Still only 51F at ORD, 55F in Joliet, 59F in Kankakee...I think 60F at ORD might be to far fetched this late in the day especially with clouds building in along the cold front. May not hit 60F till the following weekend if trends of a warm up continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 56 now at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 EURO, GFS still showing a shift at 240 hours. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif 11-15 day  looking good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 FWIW, made a post on when I think we see spring weather come around. 10 days seeming like a good timeframe at this point. Link: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/03/seasonal-to-above-normal-temperatures.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 Those maps are a big change!  Hit 42° here today. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 If accumulating snow is done until this Fall, at least it ended up being an exact number. 80 total inches of snow is spectacular. Would've loved to get 90" for #1 all time (or even 82.4" for 2nd place), but 3rd place at 80" works wonderfully. 3 ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like the euro weeklies flipped for weeks 2 and 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 It's looking good for some snow across Iowa early next week. Â The models have been showing heavier snow(2-3" maybe) in southwestern Iowa, but 1-2" is not out of the question around here. Â The NAM has shifted the heavier stuff into eastern Iowa this morning, although it's wildly overdone with qpf as usual. season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Â Â Â '21-22: 27.1"Â Â Â '20-21: 52.5"Â Â Â '19-20: 36.2"Â Â Â Â '18-19: 50.2"Â Â Â Â '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 Interesting AFD from des moines. Talking 2-3" monday and temps remaining below normal for the last days of March.http://kamala.cod.edu/ia/latest.fxus63.KDMX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like the euro weeklies flipped for weeks 2 and 3Â Where can I see those at? Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Â 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 Geo's, go to Wx Bell Models and its right underneath the CFSv2 sub-monthly. The Control Run is colder than the Ensemble Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 Interesting AFD from des moines. Talking 2-3" monday and temps remaining below normal for the last days of March.http://kamala.cod.edu/ia/latest.fxus63.KDMX.html I don't understand the bit about the last days of March.  The models continue to look fairly mild on the 30th and 31st. 1 season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"   '21-22: 27.1"   '20-21: 52.5"   '19-20: 36.2"    '18-19: 50.2"    '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 idk either but GFS warms up a lot next weekend and then after that gets a bit cooler. Very active west-east pattern. This is long range so who knows what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 idk either but GFS warms up a lot next weekend and then after that gets a bit cooler. Very active west-east pattern. This is long range so who knows what will happen.the weather centre has a good article that i was looking that we will have two weeks of warmth coming by the 27th of this month and he did not say any cooldowns in his article and andrew has said that there won't any interruptions with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 lolat lease he has a lot of sense than you money all you have benn doing is trolling at me and i am sick and tired of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 also i have been looking at the weather centre and he has said that we will have a strong to a super el nino towards next winter so that means that we will have above normal temps and below normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 the weather centre has a good article that i was looking that we will have two weeks of warmth coming by the 27th of this month and he did not say any cooldowns in his article and andrew has said that there won't any interruptions with this pattern. Yeah - I think that's a good prediction to run on right now. He put a lot of thought into what he wrote there. Today is kind of blah! hahaMostly cloudy and kind of breezy.Tomorrow definitely looks like the coldest day of the next 7. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 cold out today.....only made it to upper 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think it is worth noting that the blog post on weather centre states " a possibility of an El Nino". He does a good job a laying out the information but he does not say that this "will" happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think it is worth noting that the blog post on weather centre states " a possibility of an El Nino". He does a good job a laying out the information but he does not say that this "will" happenAgreed, but many others have been pointing to an El Niño, which I think is very likely at this point. However, just don't know how strong it will be. Just because there is an El Niño doesn't mean it will have a huge impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 22, 2014 Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 What a horrible spring day here in Nebraska. Barely freezing ( 20 degrees below normal) and a stiff Nw breeze too. Tonight we might get close to our record low of 10 and early Monday receive a couple inches of snow. Winter definitely didn't end here on the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2014 18z NAM really reduced the snow system this week, except for a small area in central Iowa. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084 GFS T-2.5" generally. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 0z NAM is washing this system out further... Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Both the GGEM/EURO are completely different in the long range. Both have colder temps around the HR 240 period with euro showing a cutter through N. IL or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 A rather strong LES band about to hit E Cook county...DT should get some accumulation from this. LOT indicating 1-2" possible for Cook before it moves east into Lake/Porter county IN. Pretty remarkable to see 23F temps and LES on March 23rd! Would be something we see mid-winter in January with 850's -16C! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro shows temps hitting 60's in our area next Monday but with that cutter showing up it brings some significant snows nearby. 2 separate systems...Thu/Fri then next week Tue/Wed.  I clearly remember this pattern during cycle 2 of the LRC back in late Jan as we head into February when east Asia was anticipating ridging but our area saw troughing in the 6-10 day period.. It will be interesting if the colder pattern wins this time around like it did back in cycle 2. I'd say with a AO tanking from its current highs, we are in for below normal temps after a brief spike in temps late next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Dusting here. Totally clear but when i look out east I see those nice lake clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro shows temps hitting 60's in our area next Monday but with that cutter showing up it brings some significant snows nearby. 2 separate systems...Thu/Fri then next week Tue/Wed.  I clearly remember this pattern during cycle 2 of the LRC back in late Jan as we head into February when east Asia was anticipating ridging but our area saw troughing in the 6-10 day period.. It will be interesting if the colder pattern wins this time around like it did back in cycle 2. I'd say with a AO tanking from its current highs, we are in for below normal temps after a brief spike in temps late next weekend.NICE! That's a great looking map! Although part of me is like ugh, I just want it to be warm and stay warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wouldn't be the first time we have have had concrete mixers this time of the year. Thursday Friday system lots of potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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