March 2014 Observations and Discussions Part II

[Money]

GFS with 2-3 inches of snow from MKE north along the lake for Wed. night

[gosaints]

WAA probably underdone.

[Geos]

Except for the cold now and a cool shot middle of next week, the GFS is pretty mild. Fantasy land 70s in the long range.

[Tom]

The "Ice Box" of the nation, International Falls, set a new record for the coldest start to a calendar year Jan 1st - Mar 23rd....an abysmal 1.9 degrees!  That's just insane cold.

[gosaints]

Not much snow left around here.  The rain on Thursday will take care of most of it!

[Tony]

Except for the cold now and a cool shot middle of next week, the GFS is pretty mild. Fantasy land 70s in the long range.

That sounds nice but not liking the precip that is showing up on the model. We need the ground to dry out so as to get this baseball season started.

[The Snowman]

That sounds nice but not liking the precip that is showing up on the model. We need the ground to dry out so as to get this baseball season started.

Meh- it can rain as much as it wants. Since the Cubs won't breach a .500 record again this year, and the Sox won't do much better, hockey's the main sport to follow. Playoffs start in just under a month!

[Tom]

Hawks Playoff Tickets went on sale this morning!  Playoffs start April 16th.  I checked for tickets for the 1st round and they are sold out already.

[james1976]

thats a big storm at hr 240 on GFS.

[Tony]

Meh- it can rain as much as it wants. Since the Cubs won't breach a .500 record again this year, and the Sox won't do much better, hockey's the main sport to follow. Playoffs start in just under a month!

It was more about high school ball as my son is a freshman and they are getting ansy and are ready to get this season underway.

[Tom]

James, 12z Euro showing that storm also with tons of moisture developing out in the Plains and heads towards the Lakes.  Not cold enough for all snow but showing something.  Looks like 60's are still game for Sun-Mon before a cold front sweeps through Monday and a system tries to run up along it.

 

 

th_snow gets hammered next 10 days!

[th_snow]

James, 12z Euro showing that storm also with tons of moisture developing out in the Plains and heads towards the Lakes.  Not cold enough for all snow but showing something.  Looks like 60's are still game for Sun-Mon before a cold front sweeps through Monday and a system tries to run up along it.

 

 

th_snow gets hammered next 10 days!

Certainly an active pattern possibly setting up. Still have 22" of snow on the ground.

[East Dubzz]

It was more about high school ball as my son is a freshman and they are getting ansy and are ready to get this season underway.

We've had two games cancelled so far. Looking like maybe this Friday could be our first one---maybe.

 

As I'm typing on my phone waiting for the start go baseball practice, I see a couple snowflakes falling outside. Too funny.

[Tom]

Th_snow, what were your overnight lows for the last couple nights???

[th_snow]

Th_snow, what were your overnight lows for the last couple nights???

I had 2° this morning and I had -1° yesterday morning. 61 days with a sub zero low since December 1.

[Tony]

We've had two games cancelled so far. Looking like maybe this Friday could be our first one---maybe.

 

As I'm typing on my phone waiting for the start go baseball practice, I see a couple snowflakes falling outside. Too funny.

Nothing like practicing in the snow!!

[Geos]

That sounds nice but not liking the precip that is showing up on the model. We need the ground to dry out so as to get this baseball season started.

 

Yeah I know some kids that have had soccer and baseball practice already postponed 1x at least due to patches of ice on the fields still. Some co-workers are itching to get out onto the greens soon as well. 

 

That end of the run storm on the EURO is too warm for snow south of Milwaukee. 850 mb's torch up past Madison and to near Port Washington. 

[james1976]

nice 4-6" stripe of snow through my area on that Euro run. wish it would come true so we could break the all time snow record.

[Tom]

Gosh, 18z GFS has -10/-20's showing up on April Fools Day in N MN.  They just can't seem to get a break this year with unbearable cold.

[Tom]

LOL....welcome April!  This run similar to what the 12z EURO was showing around Day 10.  Model might start picking up on the -NAO which will be negative by then.  We'll see if this even transpires this far out.

[Geos]

A -NAO in April doesn't act the same as in the winter. Doesn't really mean anything.

 

There's only been measurable April snow here 5 of the last 16, so I'm not going to hold my breathe for 6"! haha

 

Now that we are into spring, the 0°C 850mb line isn't a good gauge for finding the surface freezing line. So keep that in mind when looking at the maps. Closer to -5°C would be the one to look for when figure where the snow might actually make it to the ground. 

[Tom]

Geo's, how could you say a -NAO doesn't act the same in April as it does in Winter???  I definitely disagree with you on that bc you don't have to look back to far to see that prove to be true.  Last year we had high latitude blocking that kept a cold/cool Spring in check.  As for the 850's, yes, I do agree as we get later into Spring we need to take into account lower 850's to get snow production.  BTW, I'm not firm on that much snow falling during the 1st week in April but certainly possible to see the white stuff falling from the sky.

[james1976]

very heavy snow burst and wind here.

[Money]

lol geos is in such denial right now.

 

Snow def. can happen in April. Heck, it's snowed in May before. It wouldn't be unusual to see a snowstorm in late march/early April. 

[james1976]

this storm has shown up multiple runs now
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Geos]

I'm just saying snow in April isn't common around here, especially in the last decade.

 

-NAO between April and October usually acts differently from what I've learned from research. No real rhyme nor reason to what it could mean. It due to the absence of a polar vortex and the jet stream retreating northward.

[Tom]

Ya Geo's, you seriously have a bad case of the winter blues and wish casting for warmth.  Heck, I wouldn't mind seeing 70's right now but it ain't happening anytime soon around here.  It seems you have been down playing any cold or snow possibilities since mid February.  I'm not trying to be hard on you but you have to understand the pattern we are in and there is still some winter on the table.  I'd like to see sustained warmth by now but I'm not holding my breath.  Just don't see it till maybe mid/late April.  High Latitude Blocking certainly will have an effect on our temperatures in April.  Was it you that said we couldn't get high temps in the 20's in late March???

[Tom]

The amount of storm systems that will be hitting our region is on the rise as we head into the very active part of the LRC for a good 4-6 week period.  Might have some flooding concerns in April if we get some bigger storms.  Hopefully not a repeat of last year.

[Geos]

Ya Geo's, you seriously have a bad case of the winter blues and wish casting for warmth.  Heck, I wouldn't mind seeing 70's right now but it ain't happening anytime soon around here.  It seems you have been down playing any cold or snow possibilities since mid February.  I'm not trying to be hard on you but you have to understand the pattern we are in and there is still some winter on the table.  I'd like to see sustained warmth by now but I'm not holding my breath.  Just don't see it till maybe mid/late April.  High Latitude Blocking certainly will have an effect on our temperatures in April.  Was it you that said we couldn't get high temps in the 20's in late March???

 

No I never said that. Maybe teens I did.

I think I've seen a 28° or 29° high in the first few days of April before.

 

I'm just going by what I've learned from research. That's not my personal opinion. Here's an article on how the -NAO of 2012 brought the heat on!

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/lets-blame-the-nao-on-the-heatwave/67959

 

The main reason I'm downplaying much more wintry cold chances is because the polar vortex is collapsing. 

[tim the weatherman]

I'm just saying snow in April isn't common around here, especially in the last decade.

 

-NAO between April and October usually acts differently from what I've learned from research. No real rhyme nor reason to what it could mean. It due to the absence of a polar vortex and the jet stream retreating northward.

i woundn't say that geos that it can snow in april because it happen before courtesy of nws chicago( April 1-2, 1970 10.7 inches).

[Geos]

i woundn't say that geos that it can snow in april because it happen before.

 

I know it can snow in April, but it's only happened ~31% in the last 16 years here locally. 2001, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009, 2011. Only once above 5".

 

This belongs in an April thread though...

[East Dubzz]

Golly gee, Tom/Money, you've been talking about all this snow since mid-February and I haven't got jack squat. And Goes, you have been down playing the cold a little, but this is record stuff and I would have probably been doing the same. And I, well i... I just don't mess up to be honest

 

Okay but seriously, we've all made claims on here that have and haven't come right. In all honestly, Geos really didn't say snow wasn't at all possible this time of year, he just said it's pretty hard to do... Which, last time I checked... Is pretty true.

 

Lighten up people, we shouldn't be attacking other posters because they have a different belief that our own. Everyone has been right and wrong this winter, besides me of course, so let's just take a chill (pun intended) pill.

 

I'm freezing my balls off still when I go outside, but there looks to be a decent warmup coming next year. And chances of rain, snow, sunshine, cloudy, blah blah blah, we'll just all have to see because anything could happen.

[Tom]

ED, if you read my post, I CLEARLY said I'm not being Hard on Geo's or attacking him in anyway.  Never have, never will, just saying what's on my mind.

[East Dubzz]

ED, if you read my post, I CLEARLY said I'm not being Hard on Geo's or attacking him in anyway. Never have, never will, just saying what's on my mind.

Wasn't directed too much at you Tom, I don't really mind the way you approach people when you disagree. You're not rude about it.

[Geos]

FYI: Since April is in 7 days... a thread can be started pretty soon.

 

Hearing reports of +SN up by LSE tonight. Very thin band on radar.

[james1976]

FYI: Since April is in 7 days... a thread can be started pretty soon.

 

Hearing reports of +SN up by LSE tonight. Very thin band on radar.

I just got nailed by that thin band here in IA.

0.5" in 15 mins about an hour ago.

0.7" total for the day.

[Geos]

I just got nailed by that thin band here in IA.

0.5" in 15 mins about an hour ago.

0.7" total for the day.

 

Cool

Supposed to come through here at about 6z. I'll be in bed by then. All the prefrontal snow has been virga in the local region.

 

COD radar

 

[tim the weatherman]

No I never said that. Maybe teens I did.

I think I've seen a 28° or 29° high in the first few days of April before.

 

I'm just going by what I've learned from research. That's not my personal opinion. Here's an article on how the -NAO of 2012 brought the heat on!

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/lets-blame-the-nao-on-the-heatwave/67959

 

The main reason I'm downplaying much more wintry cold chances is because the polar vortex is collapsing. 

with the polar vortex collapsing within the next two to four weeks since this and the final warming that means the ao will flip back to positve by the second week of april and that article means that a negative nao can have an impact with the spring and summer temps that the article states that we could have a hot summer too.

[Andie]

Cloudy with a chance of making stuff up !

 

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wkDvqQKGgDA

 

After this winter, one can sympathize with Canada.

[Iowawx]

To prove that April snowstorms are real and can happen, here is a photo from my town (Cedar Rapids,Iowa) on April 10, 1973. The city received over 14 inches from this storm and it was truly one to remember. Even though highs are expected to hit around 65 by later this weekend and early next week, that does not mean we are done with winter, if I remember, we were in the 70's-80's for highs before this April 1973 blizzard hit.