March 2014 Observations and Discussions Part II

[Tom]

Hands down to the LRC if this warm up over the weekend never happens.  5-6 days out and some of the models are seeing a much different tune.  If the 12z Euro is on board, then this switch may be noteworthy.

[Geos]

12z GFS tames the cold and snow way back the entire run fwiw.

 

850's are borderline for that CMC system over the weekend. Looks like the cold air generated from the system itself.

[Tony]

12z GGEM...spins up a lower lakes cutter Fri/Sat and drops a trough into the region over the weekend.  Let's see if this is a real "change" in the forecast and see what the Euro is showing.

GFS showing something similar but much further south. With no real cold pressing high forcing this south I can see the GFS adjusting to the canadian. The way this year has been going it looks like we might keep adding to the snow totals.

[Tony]

This run sure looks like heavy snow for Chicagoland.

[Geos]

Marginal situation.

 

 

[Tom]

Geo's, I believe the GFS is having major problems ushering in warmth way to fast in the long range due to the model "thinking" its April and climatologically speaking it may be correct to send in warmth, but given the pattern I believe it is way off.

[Tony]

12z GFS tames the cold and snow way back the entire run fwiw.

 

850's are borderline for that CMC system over the weekend. Looks like the cold air generated from the system itself.

This time of the year we are always on the edge of the rain/snow line but saying this there sure seems to be a ton of qpf with this system no matter what falls. The Thursday system seems to lay down some decent qpf as well which does not bode well for the baseball fields so I can see another week of cancellations happening.

[Geos]

This time of the year we are always on the edge of the rain/snow line but saying this there sure seems to be a ton of qpf with this system no matter what falls. The Thursday system seems to lay down some decent qpf as well which does not bode well for the baseball fields so I can see another week of cancellations happening.

 

With the wind off the lake it would probably be too warm and with it being during the day. I've been skeptical of the CMC model for awhile - especially 102 hours out.

 

Anyways, the EURO is rain and further south. 

[Tom]

12z Euro showing the cutter as well but not as wound up like the GGEM.  Similar to the 12z GFS...

 

[Tom]

My D**n furnace is working just as hard today as if it were December or January!

 

12z Euro next Monday...spinning up a rather powerful system that eventually occludes this run.  Sox home opener is looking more and more like there could be some trouble.

[gosaints]

Man that's a brutal cold rain on the EURO.  Oh well will help pull some frost out of the ground I Guess...

[gosaints]

Sunday looks gorgeous here on Sunday looks like could make a run into the 60s

[james1976]

brutal today. almost 30 degrees below normal. and windy.

[East Dubzz]

brutal today. almost 30 degrees below normal. and windy.

Come on man, compared to what we've had this winter, you're calling this brutal!? Man up, it's a great day to wear shorts and a t-shirt

[Money]

GFS Ensemble:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f96.html

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f102.html

 

Couple great hits for the area.

[Geos]

My D**n furnace is working just as hard today as if it were December or January!

 

12z Euro next Monday...spinning up a rather powerful system that eventually occludes this run.  Sox home opener is looking more and more like there could be some trouble.

 

At least it's still running mild through 6z Tuesday.

[james1976]

Come on man, compared to what we've had this winter, you're calling this brutal!? Man up, it's a great day to wear shorts and a t-shirt

haha yeah. i meant compared to the normal high. but yes, 24 above is a bit warmer than 24 below. lol

[East Dubzz]

haha yeah. i meant compared to the normal high. but yes, 24 above is a bit warmer than 24 below. lol

Indeed. But there is no doubt it was pretty dang chilly out there today, no matter what month it is!

[gosaints]

Gfs would equal major flooding next week

[Geos]

Gfs would equal major flooding next week

 

Wow, no kidding. Super wet system.

 

[Niko]

Im focusing on the weekend system. The latest euro indicates all snow for my area. Hopefully, I can break my record. Received a little snow today from snowshowers all day long and now im up to 91.0" for the season. Im 2.5 inches shy now from smashing it. Man, how close is this.

[Tom]

Anyone doubting the U.S. as a whole has experienced a once in a century winter, this article may convince them otherwise.  Something I have been thinking about since the beginning of March.

 

www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/03/brrr-us-suffers-through-coldest-october-march-in-102-years/

[Geos]

Already climbing through the mid 20s in Racine. Southerly winds starting to blow.

 

Cape Cod getting punished by blizzard conditions right now. 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=269&y=201&site=box&zmx=1&zmy=1&map_x=268.5&map_y=201#.UzLpKdJDvTo

[Niko]

Already climbing through the mid 20s in Racine. Southerly winds starting to blow.

 

Cape Cod getting punished by blizzard conditions right now. 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=269&y=201&site=box&zmx=1&zmy=1&map_x=268.5&map_y=201#.UzLpKdJDvTo

Yup...Halifax will get clobbered as well. Mr. Mike Seidel from TWC is in Halifax to report the blizzard. Fun to watch indeed. The cities on the east coast really got spared. Had this storm been 50 to 75 miles more west.... they would have gotten the blizzard conditions.

[Geos]

Yup...Halifax will get clobbered as well. Mr. Mike Seidel from TWC is in Halifax to report the blizzard. Fun to watch indeed. The cities on the east coast really got spared. Had this storm been 50 to 75 miles more west.... they would have gotten the blizzard conditions.

 

Surprised to hear that someone from the Weather Channel would actually go cover this due to the limited land area it will be impacting.

[Niko]

Surprised to hear that someone from the Weather Channel would actually go cover this due to the limited land area it will be impacting.

Thats exactly what I said too. Very weird, but also very surprising. I guess he has to make a a healthy paycheck and whatever mother nature provides, they go after it.

[East Dubzz]

Got down to 9 degrees last night.. Wow! Up to 24 currently, but still a wind chill of 10.

[Geos]

Pushing 30° now in Racine with full sun.

 

I was hearing that storm could have been more like Sandy if it would have been 100 miles further west.

Still a hard hit for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. 

[Money]

28 here. High was predicted at 39. Going to be tough to beat.

[Geos]

Grids have temps peaking at 4pm, WAA will be increasing until the system departs tomorrow night.

 

MKX

 

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A SUNNY BUT VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG
AND RATHER DEEP WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
KEEPING ANY THREAT FOR WAA PRECIP TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST...AROUND
SHEBOYGAN...TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

 

[Geos]

Red flag warnings up for most of MO. Haven't seen those in awhile.

[Tom]

Got down into the single digits in Lake/McHenry counties last night.  Wonder how much of an effect that did on any vegetation.  We've had a few real cold nights over the last couple days.

[Geos]

Probably the last sub 20° night last night until November.

 

Warming up still today - up to 38°.

[Money]

32 here. High of 39 looking to be wrong.

[Tom]

I wouldn't say that Geo's, if you lay down a snowpack next week and it will get chilly at night.  You may still get temps that don't get above 30F during the day if that system hits.

[Geos]

I wouldn't say that Geo's, if you lay down a snowpack next week and it will get chilly at night.  You may still get temps that don't get above 30F during the day if that system hits.

 

For the record it's never went sub 20° at UGN in the last 27 years.

 

---

Looks like my daffodil's survived the cold night last night. Hardy plant.

[East Dubzz]

Very gloomy day out today. Only 36 currently. No rain here at the moment, looks like we're in a lull right now until rain chances come around again later. Our first baseball game got moved back to tomorrow, and they weren't super optimistic about having the field ready in the first place. If we do get some decent rain, along with the temps going below freezing again tonight and not that great of a day tomorrow, I'm willing to bet the game once again gets cancelled.

[Tony]

Very gloomy day out today. Only 36 currently. No rain here at the moment, looks like we're in a lull right now until rain chances come around again later. Our first baseball game got moved back to tomorrow, and they weren't super optimistic about having the field ready in the first place. If we do get some decent rain, along with the temps going below freezing again tonight and not that great of a day tomorrow, I'm willing to bet the game once again gets cancelled.

My sons high school has cancelled all games until early next week and next week will be iffy as well.

[Geos]

About 40-41° with drizzle here in Racine.

 

.02" so far.

 

Actually it may stay warm enough, not to freeze tonight East Dubzz.

Monday is looking really nice for baseball.

[East Dubzz]

About 40-41° with drizzle here in Racine.

.02" so far.

Actually it may stay warm enough, not to freeze tonight East Dubzz.

Monday is looking really nice for baseball.

I hope, but my forecast is still 28 for tonight. As for baseball, we've had a couple days that have been nice enough to play, but the fields just aren't ready yet and won't be for a while if this keeps up.