March 2014 Observations and Discussions Part II

[tim the weatherman]

NICE! That's a great looking map! Although part of me is like ugh, I just want it to be warm and stay warm

you are right nejeremy that andrew at the weather centre just said in an article that we will be in a warmperoid for two weeks without interruptions starting on the 30th of this month so the models that tom and money just saw is in fanatsy land.

[james1976]

late week system could be interesting. from des moines:
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE MORE OF A SPRING TYPE  
SYSTEM. CAP IS INDICATED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAT ON THE RUNS  
YESTERDAY WITH UP TO 700 J/KG AVAILABLE ON THE SRN BORDER. WILL  
CONTINUE WITH THE THUNDER MENTION OVER ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE  
STATE FOR THU. COLDER AIR WILL YIELD A MIX OF PRECIP HEADING INTO  
THU NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SYSTEM. COMPARISON WITH THE GFS  
AND ECMWF IS QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE INTENSITY. ECMWF MORE  
AGGRESSIVE WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH...THUS LOW BECOMES  
MORE WOUND UP. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE CHANCES FOR A BAND OF SNOW  
ON THE BACK SIDE WILL INCREASE.  

[Sciascia]

so the models that tom and money just saw is in fanatsy land.

To be fair, you're referencing info that's supposed to happen 7 days from now, and Tom's only a few days further out than what you're quoting. No need to call someone wrong because it doesn't fit the story someone else is telling right now. That's part of the fun, anyway. To see various model runs & see what they spit out.

[NEJeremy]

you are right nejeremy that andrew at the weather centre just said in an article that we will be in a warmperoid for two weeks without interruptions starting on the 30th of this month so the models that tom and money just saw is in fanatsy land.

??? What are you talking about? I never mentioned anything about an article that Andrew mentioned. Also that map of snowfall from the Euro includes snowfall that we are getting tonight and might get in 5 days from now from another system. Hardly fantasy land yet you're sitting here posting that in 7 days from now and for the next 2 WEEKS after that we're going to have uninterrupted warmth. Talk about fantasy land and contradicting yourself!! Man you spew a lot of garbage all of the time

[james1976]

NAM is trying to develop 2 separate waves for the early week system

[Tom]

It's going to be tough to get real warmth to stick around with a -AO/near neutral NAO...

[james1976]

Tom, did you see GFS trying to blow up a bit more for the late week system? Des Moines is saying Euro is negative tilt?

[Tom]

06z GFS taking its time as usual but farther north into MN/N WI with heavier snows.  You may be in a good spot to get snow. 

[james1976]

12z GFS very weak for mon-tue

[Tom]

DT Chicago received 2" of snow from that lake band.  Fascinating to see lake snows in the Spring season.  There were reports International Falls hit -26F...unbelievable in late March.

[james1976]

anyone have a GFS snowfall map?

[Geos]

Watch the PNA first of all - if it goes negative, then the trough drops into the West.

 

Also note that the model has underplayed how positive the AO actually ended up being (lately), especially on the beyond 10 days.

 

 

Bright and sunny here this morning. Would never it was snowing within 50 miles of here.

[james1976]

fantasy land but wow Minnesota
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_348_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[james1976]

big powerful cutoff low in the upper midwest on long range GFS

[Tom]

-PNA will pump a SE Ridge and in return create a storm track in our region.  Sure the West will start to see storminess and systems will start coming out of the SW like they did back in Feb.  This fits with the LRC pattern as well.  -PNA doesn't necessarily mean our region will see ridging and warmth (I do see a few days of real warm temps next Sun-Mon ish).

[Niko]

Tom, hopefully with Tues-Weds system of next week, I can get over 3inches to break my snowfall record. My forecast is calling for snow likely. Lets see if mother nature will do its thing. Once I break my record, then, I can relax and enjoy Spring temps. Currently at 90.3" for the winter season and my record is 93.1". Now, tell me that doesnt make you bite a nail and thinking whether or not this has a shot at breaking the record .

[Geos]

big powerful cutoff low in the upper midwest on long range GFS

 

Sounds like one of the situations from last April.

[james1976]

whats euro look like?  ggem?

[midwest buildit]

Do what did Ord get? Getting closer to second place.

[Tom]

12z Euro still showing a strong 992mb SLP cutting through C IA/S WI...there are mixing issues but lots of qpf with this one.

[Geos]

Do what did Ord get? Getting closer to second place.

 

Trace

[gosaints]

Euro must be warm. 2 inches on1.2 qpf

[Geos]

Euro must be warm. 2 inches on1.2 qpf

 

Snows by you at 120 hours. First part of the system for RST and LSE is rain. ~6" off the EURO in 240 hours for you. Could be lower due to ratios and atmospheric profiles.

 

18z NAM

 

[Tom]

12z Euro has a much different look now Week 2. Arctic High Pressure right over the lakes feeds colder air into our region next Sun-Wed and most likely beyond.  Models starting to latch on to blocking.  The system next week and the cutter the following week all have potential to be bigger snow producing systems as late season Arctic High Pressures still have enough cold air to feed into the storm.  Given the character of this winter, it's definitely on the table.  Anyone NW of the track is in the Game.

[Tom]

D**n, only 27F forecasted for Tuesday...roughly 23 degrees below normal.  I'd say that is pretty brutal for late March.  Any daffodils/tulips that popped up last week will likely freeze by then.  I saw some of my perennials pop up last week and this morning they didn't look to good.

[james1976]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[james1976]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[MKEstorm]

D**n, only 27F forecasted for Tuesday...roughly 23 degrees below normal.  I'd say that is pretty brutal for late March.  Any daffodils/tulips that popped up last week will likely freeze by then.  I saw some of my perennials pop up last week and this morning they didn't look to good.

 

 

Ya, channel 12 posted on their facebook page that it stayed in the 20's today...which is difficult to do after the Spring Equinox. They were also excited to announce that the models were agreeing on 50's for late next weekend into early next week. But the first thing I thought was that never trust models a week out...and as you mentioned in your previous post, the 12z Euro is beginning to back off a bit on the warm temps!

[james1976]

looks like that warmup for next weekend will be short-lived.
forecast for my area tomorrow is 1-3" which could break the all time snow record.
late week system needs to be watched as Euro is showing a deeper system with snow potential.

[james1976]

yesterday and today were about 20 degrees below normal. that would be like having 60s in the summer. pretty cold if you ask me.

[East Dubzz]

yesterday and today were about 20 degrees below normal. that would be like having 60s in the summer. pretty cold if you ask me.

But no snow to go along with it, so I don't think it's as exciting as everyone else. Just doesn't allow me to go outside, even though all the snow is gone.

[Geos]

Early spring flowers should be fine down to the upper teens.

I was outside today and yesterday more so. Been able to clean up the yard and do some mulching.

 

12z EURO is mild looking Thursday - Tuesday morning right now.

 

If that system heads further north, then the warmth will extend further north and last longer towards 240 hours.

[Tom]

Something to think about for the following week's system to hit somewhere in our region.  Here's a short article regarding that system that hit Japan Fri/Sat...this one had some juice to it.

 

www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/heavy-snow-strong-winds-hit-northern-japan

[East Dubzz]

Was about to report the temp when I realized I brought my temp gauge in tonight.

 

Not quite 71 degrees outside

[Geos]

Jim Ramsey is going with a couple tenth's to 0.5" across NE IL, maybe some localized amounts closer to an inch.

 

Temp fell fast to near 20°, but has been pretty steady since.

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS is showing 70 degrees here both next Sunday and Monday.  That would not suck.

[gosaints]

Euro looks springy to me. I mean its not a full blown torch but doesn't show any full blown Arctic air either

[Geos]

Morning lows were higher than expected. Hit 17°.

 

Local forecasters have temps near 60° on Sunday.

[Snowshoe]

Some numbers from northern and central Wisconsin last night. That -23 in Land'O Lakes is on the Wis/UP border. They have good 4ft of snow on the ground up there. Down here in central Wisconsin we have nothing but piles and hard crust. My temp was a big zero last night. Impressive cold for limited snow cover and late March. I seriously hope this is the end of this garbage! I got a new bike I'm itching to ride and I dont feel like dressing up like im going snowmobiling to do so!

NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
IRONWOOD       PTCLDY    -2 -15  55 W8        30.16S WCI -17
MANITOWISH WTR PTCLDY   -18 -24  74 CALM      30.17S
ARBOR VITAE    PTCLDY    -6 -11  78 CALM      30.17S
EAGLE RIVER    CLEAR    -14 -21  73 CALM      30.16S
LAND O LAKES   CLEAR    -23 -29  72 CALM      30.15F
RHINELANDER    CLEAR      0  -4  83 W5        30.17F WCI -10
PHILLIPS       CLEAR     -9 -13  83 CALM      30.20S
ANTIGO         PTCLDY    -5  -8  85 CALM      30.20S
TOMAHAWK       CLEAR     -9 -13  80 CALM      30.20S
MERRILL        PTCLDY    -6 -10  80 CALM      30.22S
MEDFORD        CLEAR      2  -2  85 CALM      30.21F
WAUSAU         PTCLDY     4   0  83 CALM      30.23S
MOSINEE        CLEAR      5   3  92 W3        30.25S
MARSHFIELD     CLEAR      9   3  77 W7        30.24S WCI  -2
WISC RAPIDS    CLEAR      5   0  79 CALM      30.29R
STEVENS POINT  PTCLDY     0  -4  83 CALM      30.27S
WAUPACA        PTCLDY    10   7  85 CALM      30.29S
SHAWANO        PTCLDY     8   3  80 CALM      30.28S
CLINTONVILLE   PTCLDY     7   3  85 CALM      30.28S

[Geos]

Those are some ridiculous lows for late March!

17° this morning feels warm when looking at those numbers.

 

EURO mainly showing snow from North Dakota to the U.P. of MI through 240 hours.

Cold air is disconnected from the system near the 1st. Looks like 3 good rainstorms for the lower Lakes and corn belt coming up.

 

GFS is slightly further north.