March 2014 Observations and Discussions Part II

[Geos]

Lol, what snow!? Not one flake here. Sun is actually starting to break through the clouds.

[East Dubzz]

Lol, what snow!? Not one flake here. Sun is actually starting to break through the clouds.

I woke up this morning and noticed the ground was all of a sudden completely covered, I was shocked!

[IowaHawkeyes]

Ya snowed some last night in Manchester to but not as much as dubuque

[Tony]

Really came down hard here for about 10 min or so. Looks like a little more overnite into tomorrow morning.

 

Next Monday night looks interesting as well and could see some accumulating snow...hopefully our last!

[FV-Mike]

Saw this note on Skillings Blog this morning. Really shows you how cold it was this winter.

 

"Temps here since Dec. 1 have averaged coldest in 143 years of official observation

It’s been abysmally cold since December. The persistence of the chill has set this season aside from its predecessors. In fact, the 20.5-degree average temp from Dec. 1 to March 19 makes the period Chicago’s coldest in 143 years of official observations."

[DominicR]

Really came down hard here for about 10 min or so. Looks like a little more overnite into tomorrow morning.

 

Next Monday night looks interesting as well and could see some accumulating snow...hopefully our last!

 

Yeah it caught me off guard. The flakes were pretty big over here. Nice coating. Now 60 on Friday to low 30s and possible accumulating snow Monday! Does not look big but Skiling and LOT hit the word pretty good

 

LOT:

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW LOCKS IN

AND WE COULD SEE ONE OR TWO CLIPPERS BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR

SNOW...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING...IN ADDITION TO RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF

LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR. SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW WAVES HAVE LOW

PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME RANGE SO POPS ARE MODEST...BUT WOULDN`T

BE SURPRISED TO SEE A MODERATELY STRONG CLIPPER OR TWO AFFECT THE

AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS...PARTICULARLY

WEDNESDAY...BUT FIGURED A FORECAST OF 15-20F BELOW CLIMO CERTAINLY

GETS THE MESSAGE OF COLD ACROSS ADEQUATELY FOR NOW!

 

[Money]

GFS is colder in the long range. Highs under 30 most of the run through HR 240.

[Money]

Yeah, total shift in the long range on the GFS from the past several runs. Has temps in the low 20's from April 2nd on with a 1040+ high to the NE. 

[Geos]

GFS shows a couple minor disturbances early next week.

Pushes upper 30s into the area now on Monday.

 

High temps near 20° aren't happening in April! lol

 

<2" for most of us.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032012&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=144

[Money]

GFS shows a couple minor disturbances early next week.

Pushes upper 30s into the area now on Monday.

 

High temps near 20° aren't happening in April! lol

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032012&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=144

 

LOL

 

6+ through HR 216 but don't let your spring bias get in the way of reporting facts. 

 

Seriously, you are almost as bad as theweatherman in the past few months. 

[Tom]

We have seen this before with the GFS in the long range and trend colder.  In fact, it happened 2 weeks ago when it was showing ridging in the Midwest/Lakes for next week and that is not happening next week.  Now, although it is 1 run on the GFS, it is most likely correcting colder yet again.  It would fit the pattern that has been occurring all season long.  GGEM has had it cold thru the next 10 days run after run.  Euro has sorta backed off on the cold but it may correct colder.  We'll see next run.

[East Dubzz]

LOL

 

6+ through HR 216 but don't let your spring bias get in the way of reporting facts. 

 

Seriously, you are almost as bad as theweatherman in the past few months. 

You're yelling at him for not posting the snow past 144 hours? Really man? Plus, unless we get a big dump of snow, it's all gonna melt pretty darn quick anyway. All the stuff I got overnight is basically gone already.

[midwest buildit]

Yea I was surprised to see the ground coated with snow this morning. Melted off everything pretty quickly. My yard is just a swampy mess right now. Still snow on the back half. Maybe 4-6".

[tim the weatherman]

tlooks like this shot of artic air will be short lived by next week.

[Tom]

Check out the explosive warming at 30mb over N.A/Alaska/East Asia...

 

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

 

 

 

This will certainly have implications in the long term.

[Tom]

AO is also forecasted to tank near neutral towards the end of the month...the NAO is also forecasted to be near neutral.

[Tony]

For all that are wishing for warm weather, at least hr384 on the GFS is nice but other than that its going to be a roller coaster ride with some pretty darn cold temps and some frozen precip for the next 15 days. I hope I am wrong but there is nothing out there showing that we will be seeing spring anytime soon and unfortunantely winter is gonna win out and we will probably see at least one to two major winter storms before winter says its final goodbye.

[tim the weatherman]

The pattern for the end of March into the first few days of April 2014 will not be as cold, relatively speaking, compared to the past couple of months. However, the weather may only be warm for couple of days here and there from the northern Plains to the Midwest and Northeast.

The back-and-forth pattern may not break up until the second week of April, when temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast will swing to near to above normal during the majority of the time.(from accuweather)

[Tom]

I just want to see ORD break the all-time snow record since it would put the icing on the cake for this winter.  Would also be great if we all can somehow see 1 more big snowstorm to hit our region.  FWIW, MDW was the official recording station back in '78/79 that recorded 89.7" and this year MDW has over 82", more than ORD so it has a much better chance at breaking the record even though ORD is now the official recording station.

[Tony]

Tom, this winter does not want to end and looking at all the models there really is no change on the horizon unless you like cold temps. It really is amazing how cold this winter has been and it sure looks like it will continue into at least the fist half of April. So, if its going to be cold then lets get a blockbuster of a storm(which I truely believe will happen to someone in this sub-forum) and break some records.

[Niko]

Tony, I hope you are right because all I need is 3.4inches more snow to break my all time snowiest winter ever.

[Tony]

Tony, I hope you are right because all I need is 3.4inches more snow to break my all time snowiest winter ever.

You probably have a better than average chance as you are sooo close to breaking the record. It looks like next Tuesday will be the next chance to get a decent amount of snow which would put you near the record.

[Tom]

This illustration is showing how the PV at 10mb has split and this hasn't happened all winter long at the 10mb level.  It will be interesting how cold it will get as we head into April but I have a feeling its not going to be pretty around here.  Given the character of this winter, I would imagine another push of record setting cold as we move into April.

[Tom]

I agree Tony, it seems like this is the never ending winter of the ages.  It may end up being a once in a century type of event as it has in the Northwoods.  I can't imagine if the trend to colder winters the next 10-15 years will pump out a winter like this again.  Sign me up if they do!

[tim the weatherman]

I think this might be our last of the extremely cold air masses for the winter as there is signs that warming starts Thursday of next week and will last into the first week of April.(from henry margusity accuweather)

[Tom]

I think Henry is like a majority of all the east coast met's that said "winter's over" back in mid February.  He'll be eating his words last few days of March into April when it may be snowing in PA.

[Tom]

What I believe we will start seeing in the models is more of a trough building into the Rockies/Plains/Lakes and ridging along the east coast during the last week of March and as we head into April.  The same type of pattern will evolve as we saw back on Feb 1 when the east coast had ridging and the trough dug into the Rockies to the Lakes. 

[tim the weatherman]

i have to agree with henry margusity that we might be looking at the last of winter as we head into april with the stratospheric polar vortex collapsing and with our final warming happening with the stratosphere.

[Tony]

I think this might be our last of the extremely cold air masses for the winter as there is signs that warming starts Thursday of next week and will last into the first week of April.(from henry margusity accuweather)

Henry is more of a severe weatherman and from what I have seen from his winter videos and blogs he pretty much takes the model runs verbatim. Not that this is bad but you would expect more from a MET.

[Money]

Tom, what does the euro show snowfall wise through hr 192?

[Tom]

12z Euro showing a snowy solution but mainly north of IL/S WI area...

[Money]

Solid for here. Nearly .6 qpf 

[james1976]

waterloo only needs 2.1" to break its all-time record. its gotta happen! we've come this far so it better happen.

[Tom]

Next week's system looks to come out in 2 separate pieces on the 12 EURO with 1st wave coming thru N IL and a southern wave that heads up into the lower lakes thru S IL/S IN.  Now, if both waves merge into one significant wave, this could marry into a big time storm.  Obviously phasing and timing of this system is way off in the distance but something to watch and see how the models handle this system. 

 

The last system that hit Japan 1-2 days ago was one solid piece of energy so its certainly possible we will see a more organized significant storm than what is being displayed now on the Euro.

[Money]

What time period is that for? 144-156?

[Tom]

Between HR 180-210...next Thu-Fri...

[BrianJK]

You're yelling at him for not posting the snow past 144 hours? Really man? Plus, unless we get a big dump of snow, it's all gonna melt pretty darn quick anyway. All the stuff I got overnight is basically gone already.

 

Doesn't really matter if it metls.  I don't think anyone's really looking to build a snow pack.  We're all just chasing records here.  Give me the X amount i need overnight, record it, and it can all be gone by lunch for all I care.

[DominicR]

Not again...

 

[Niko]

Once I break my snow record, then, 70s, 80s and even 90s are welcome to stay here till September.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif