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2/4 - 2/8: Multiple Potential Rain/Ice/Snow Events

East Dubzz

By East Dubzz
in East of the Rockies

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

All kinds of rain here on Thursday on the GFS. Very gross.

 

I knew Tom's 10hpa map a couple weeks ago meant snow swaths would be north of most of our back yards...sigh. Hate when I'm right. He's pretty confident it eventually sags south, but as mentioned, that's about when it hits the reset button, lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom
Tom

Here are some pics of the ice accumulations over night in the NW burbs...    

Jaycee
Jaycee

As they say... the fortnite of the fork of the mountain steeps low during the briskest winter..... you shall be punished my peasant... as i reign down like the hammer of Thor.... for thou shalln’t for

St Paul Storm
St Paul Storm

Not bad! I’m thinking 8” right now as well. Still coming down.

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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

Posted
Posted

Not good....LOT has issued an Ice Storm Warning for N IL...I think the last time an Ice Storm Warning was issued for Chicago was back in Dec '09.

 

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Just got a WWA for ice.  I am worried the NAM is going to be right and this is being really undersold.  My current temp is 20.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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euro anyone?

You've picked a fantastic week to go up north and likely a memorable one...enjoy the bountiful snow that falls up in the U.P.! 

 

Those in the central Plains (CentralNeb, Gabel, Clint) may score a decent snow storm out of this...maybe N IA???

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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Just got a WWA for ice.  I am worried the NAM is going to be right and this is being really undersold.  My current temp is 20.

Gosh, I hope we don't get that much ice...RPM model is painting nearly .25" of widespread Ice around here...

 

Dyo9B3AX4AA1IZg.jpg

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

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You've picked a fantastic week to go up north and likely a memorable one...enjoy the bountiful snow that falls up in the U.P.!

 

Those in the central Plains (CentralNeb, Gabel, Clint) may score a decent snow storm out of this...maybe N IA???

Hope so Tom. NWS Hastings is sure downplaying any snow amounts. I like this Euro snowfall map.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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Hope so Tom. NWS Hastings is sure downplaying any snow amounts. I like this Euro snowfall map.

00z Ukie looks fairly similar out west and quite juiced for MN/WI/U.P. where the snow falls...gets it down into the low 990's across N Lower MI...

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Wxmidatlantic Newbie

Wxmidatlantic

Posted
Posted

Thanks! Looking on the bright side, temps are to rise above freezing by Wednesday morning so this shouldn't last to long. Gotta look at things "glass half full"...

From your lips to God's ear. These things can take on a life of their own. Hope springs eternal.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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Wxmidatlantic Newbie

Wxmidatlantic

Posted
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The NAMs are SLOWLY starting to fill in the dry air here tomorrow. Still not showing anything of substanc

e but it's making progress. I'll gladly take the 3" Euro has been showing for here.

Loved to see you on TV. Snow Mizer...

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

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I’m very interested to see what kind of precip we get. Most of the global models seem to think sleet, where the Euro has been thinking maintenance FZR, and the HRRR has some sleet at the onset, but then FZR for the remainder of it.

 

When we’re looking at only 0.10 - 0.20” of QPF, the difference between sleet and FZR is pretty massive.

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

Posted
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MPX posted this on Sunday, when we received a bit of FZ up this way. Days since last ice storm warnings.

An interesting note is the Houston area down below. They've stopped issuing ice storm warnings, instead issuing a WSW when major ice is expected. Not sure why.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

Posted
Posted

Light snow starting to fly here. Not sure what to expect. Globals showing a nice hit today but some of the short term models are south of the metro. Radar looking good atm. Good luck all.

radar watching time.  Need to watch where the main fronto band sets up around noon

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Snowshoe Apprentice

Snowshoe

Posted
Posted

Lets see where these narrow bands set up shop. 

 

 

 

Upper level jets and low level warm advection will
combine to produce at least a few inches of snow across the region
late this afternoon and evening. The right entrance region of a
jet moving across Upper Michigan and the left exit region of another
lifting northeast from Iowa could produce one or two narrow bands
of higher snowfall. It is difficult to forecast something like this,
but the best guess is that it would be roughly along a Wausau to
Wausaukee line.

Mild air aloft could produce some sleet and freezing rain in the
Fox Valley and lakeshore, especially from Oshkosh to Manitowoc.
All of the precipitation may end as freezing drizzle late tonight
as mid level moisture and ice crystals depart.

WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

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