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2/4 - 2/8: Multiple Potential Rain/Ice/Snow Events


East Dubzz

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GFS a little further SE with the SLP on the Thursday storm, but it appears a little better organized as it comes through the area. The overall snow shield really didn’t move much, and it still brings enough warm air to keep me in the rain sector at the onset. But does have some backside snow. Very nice run for eastern Minnesota and basically all of northern Wisconsin.

 

Actually, on second look, the snow shield did improve a little for northern Iowa and far NE Iowa.

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This looks like a 2-4" event on the high end (maybe a 1-3") through Central Nebraska imo.  Might be some frozen precipitation tomorrow preceding the snow.

Yeah same for here. Anything to make the ground white again is fine by me, especially considering we're not gonna be seeing any torches anytime soon. Whatever falls is gonna stick around.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Nice band moving into the SW portion of the metro moving this direction. It’s gotta be rippin good.

 

Huge cotton balls floating now. Ratios just doubled, at least.

Nice weenie band cutting right through MSP...your sitting pretty for this 1st round...like the radar lighting up and nearly stationary banding setting up...

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Counties just to my north upgraded to Winter Storm Warning

.An upper level disturbance will bring snow to the region latertoday and tonight. It may mix with sleet and freezing rain acrosseast central Wisconsin and end as freezing drizzle late tonight.Heavy snow is possible for areas northwest of the Fox Valley.Snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches are expected with a snow bandfrom central to northeastern Wisconsin, with lower amounts around2 to 5 inches for most other areas. Some ice accumulation ispossible south of Green Bay this evening into tonight.
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Yeah same for here. Anything to make the ground white again is fine by me, especially considering we're not gonna be seeing any torches anytime soon. Whatever falls is gonna stick around.

Yep, that's what I was thinking.  Multiple storms in the future, just way to soon to pin down amounts and strengths.

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Here’s an update from the DVN for down here:

 

“UPDATE...

Issued at 1023 AM CST Tue Feb 5 2019

 

Initial concern is that forecasted precipitation and subsequent ice amounts may be high, with a bit weaker lift and quicker progression of system in some of the new guidance. Initially colder thermal profiles may also lead to more sleet at the onset further south through I-80 corridor. In addition, convective nature will make for high variability in precipitation amounts. And lastly surface temperatures may climb above freezing in the far south/east limiting degree of icing impacts potentially in these areas. Bottom line this all adds up to lower confidence on ice amounts/ice storm warning, but no changes in headlines at this time as we assess more data.”

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Gosh, I hope we don't get that much ice...RPM model is painting nearly .25" of widespread Ice around here...

 

Dyo9B3AX4AA1IZg.jpg

 

 

:blink:  I sure hope it's out to lunch over my way!  Not sure what to think tbh. Some maps look scary, but one county to my south has zero headlines. 

 

This is worst signature on a future-cast I've seen in a long time

 

20190205 Intellicast h24.gif

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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James, you in here? Wondering if you’re seeing precipitation, and if so, what kind. SPC Mesoscale Analysis indicates it is ice pellets, but not sure if that’s reliable or not.

Nope nothing here. The sky is darker and heavier looking. Hopefully something soon!
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