2/4 - 2/8: Multiple Potential Rain/Ice/Snow Events

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like the globals were right after all. Can’t remember a time when all meso models bowed to the globals as the event was unfolding.

[gosaints]

Looks like the globals were right after all. Can’t remember a time when all meso models bowed to the globals as the event was unfolding.

Ya I am guessing things are actually heavier than I expected back at my house as well though nothing like this

[gosaints]

Maybe .1 mile vis

[East Dubzz]

Looks like the globals were right after all. Can’t remember a time when all meso models bowed to the globals as the event was unfolding.

What I notice is that sometimes the meso models will pick up on something early, and then the global will follow. But if the global continue to be consistent up until the event, they do sometimes win that battle. Of course, that’s not how it always work, but I’ve seen the global “win” those battles before as well. Just like the global model, the meso models aren’t without fault either.

[gosaints]

In other news la crosse is going to hold off on headlines for the next event until these expire.

[St Paul Storm]

What I notice is that sometimes the meso models will pick up on something early, and then the global will follow. But if the global continue to be consistent up until the event, they do sometimes win that battle. Of course, that’s not how it always work, but I’ve seen the global “win” those battles before as well. Just like the global model, the meso models aren’t without fault either.

Yeah I’m just kinda surprised that all of the mesos showed the same thing, and they were all wrong. Doesn’t happen often.

[St Paul Storm]

Radar backfilling to the west. I’m enjoying this as I don’t get any work done this afternoon. Ripping hard out there. Quarters falling from the sky.

[East Dubzz]

Looks like there are reports of thunder in SE Iowa, just south of the quad cities. Wonder if that’s thunder ice or thunder sleet.

[james1976]

Whole thing is about done here

[Hawkeye]

We had a bit of freezing rain, but it has mostly been sleet.  These last couple cells have dropped moderate to heavy sleet.  Radar suggests we are mostly done with the heavier stuff.  This event doesn't seem to be too big of a deal here.

[East Dubzz]

We had a bit of freezing rain, but it has mostly been sleet. These last couple cells have dropped moderate to heavy sleet. Radar suggests we are mostly done with the heavier stuff. This event doesn't seem to be too big of a deal here.

HRRR does develop some more FZR later tonight, but it won’t add up to a whole lot. That said, it doesn’t really take much freezing rain to cause a mess. Luckily it’ll be during a time where the roads are much less traveled.

[gosaints]

The chase was a great choice. On the bluff overlooking red wing. Really great stuff

[Jaycee]

The chase was a great choice. On the bluff overlooking red wing. Really great stuff

 

Was it barn bluff?! So weird, my family lives like right there, literally got a snap from downtown red wing just a few minutes ago. That's so cool you're there, it looks like it's rip city! 

[East Dubzz]

Some pretty heavy sleet right now. I think? Guess I don’t know what constitutes as heavy sleet lol

[Stormgeek]

Been snowing light to moderate for most of the day. Roads are a disaster even his far north. Can't imagine down south a bit. NWS sitting on around 4 to 5 on the next system. Fun, fun, fun.

[shakjen]

Raining here, not freezing yet.

[St Paul Storm]

Congrats on the chase Gosaints.

 

Still pound town here. Rush hour disaster.

[gosaints]

Was it barn bluff?! So weird, my family lives like right there, literally got a snap from downtown red wing just a few minutes ago. That's so cool you're there, it looks like it's rip city!

small world yes I was there. Now overlooking frontenac area.

[East Dubzz]

What kind of vehicle do you use to drive around in that stuff, gosaints?

[gosaints]

4wd explorer. Lots of practice..

 

It has made the hobby more enjoyable.

 

There is over 7 inches here

[Tom]

4wd explorer. Lots of practice..

 

It has made the hobby more enjoyable.

 

There is over 7 inches here

Wow, that’s some impressive thump snow. Congrats.

[gosaints]

Wow, that’s some impressive thump snow. Congrats.

fun afternoon....

 

What are your thoughts for the next system. I haven't focused on it much. Thinking a borderline warning/advisory event??

[East Dubzz]

fun afternoon....

 

What are your thoughts for the next system. I haven't focused on it much. Thinking a borderline warning/advisory event??

Models seem to be painting .50” QPF up around your area, but I’m not sure what ratios are like. I’m thinking a warning is very much in play for you.

[Tom]

fun afternoon....

 

What are your thoughts for the next system. I haven't focused on it much. Thinking a borderline warning/advisory event??Y

I'm thinking you'll get a warning...great track for your area and the wind looks strong as well...great potential for a sweet defo band pivoting right over you and into Wisco.

[East Dubzz]

I believe every model now has some rain for me with the next system. There’s also some snow and ice mixed in at various points. That just sounds pretty terrible, but will be interesting to watch develop I suppose.

 

Sounds like freezing rain, to regular rain, back to freezing rain. Euro wants to give me 1-3” of snow on the backside, but I think that’s one of most (if not THE most) aggressive models in regards to that.

[brianc400]

It's icing up quickly in my area. Roads are mostly ok but slow. But any untreated surfaces are solidly glazed over. The rain was mixed just enough with ice pellets to give a little texture.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings now saying some snow bands may produce 3-4” tomorrow night with blowing and drifting preceded by various frozen precipitation types. Might be pretty rough travel around this area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. They also mentioned many chances for snow in the next week. Giddy up.

[St Paul Storm]

Still snowing moderately here in St Paul. Just measured about 6” OTG. Another 4-7” in the point for the next round tomorrow night into Thursday, with up to 0.1” of ice now added.

[shakjen]

A lot of lightning here and pouring rain. So much for the ice storm. Glad they were wrong

[gosaints]

Nam looks like a drizzle fest around here tomorrow night.... Maybe a couple inches for msp verbatim

[gosaints]

The NAM continues to be the least excited about the system coming tomorrow night into Thursday...

[St Paul Storm]

The NAM continues to be the least excited about the system coming tomorrow night into Thursday...

Both the NAM and 3km are showing at least 7” here and 5” there. What’s not to like? After their performance today I’m not inclined to believe them, however.

[Minny_Weather]

OAX is still absolutely not excited about this. Not even an advisory for here.

[gabel23]

OAX is still absolutely not excited about this. Not even an advisory for here.

So weird seeing the empty space of no advisories in the central part of the state.

[gimmesnow]

It's like someone dumped a giant snowcone on me.

[East Dubzz]

A slight SE shift on the GFS, but still keep me in rain for a good portion of it.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS is SE but it's also notably drier. No really appreciable returns so that negates the SE shift. Even lessens amounts in fact.

[Minny_Weather]

GRR has 0.3"-0.4" of ice on the grids in some places. So why on Earth is the entire CWA in a WWA instead of some being in an ice storm warning? That makes absolutely no sense. Same goes for DTX.

[East Dubzz]

GFS is SE but it's also notably drier. No really appreciable returns so that negates the SE shift. Even lessens amounts in fact.

Not drier for everyone.

[jaster220]

GRR has 0.3"-0.4" of ice on the grids in some places. So why on Earth is the entire CWA in a WWA instead of some being in an ice storm warning? That makes absolutely no sense. Same goes for DTX.

 

GRR defaults to a WWA unless pushed, pulled, held at gun point, etc.. to go warning (for anything) it seems these days.

 

Besides, WAA has been robust this winter and they may well be riding that pony.