February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[TT-SEA]

Sunday afternoon... goofy ECMWF still thinks there is snow cover down south.  

 

And that is some serious stupidity in Montana.  

 

 

 

[Cloud]

Virga over Newcastle.

[TT-SEA]

And just remember, the Euro has been on crack lately.

 

Surprisingly consistent the last few runs through the weekend.  

 

The weekend has looked gorgeous on every run lately.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Through 10 a.m. Wednesday...

 

Just wish there was more moisture with the system coming up from the SSW. Good offshore flow in place ahead of the system.

 

[Jesse]

Actually a little warmer up here than the 12Z run.   It probably thinks there is snow on the ground on Saturday down there... don't count on that.  

 

Agreed, these Euro maps are garbage. Who keeps posting them?

[Jesse]

Sunday afternoon... goofy ECMWF still thinks there is snow cover down south.  

 

And that is some serious stupidity in Montana.  

 

 

 

 

 

At least the Columbia Basin can expect some average early March weather.

[Cloud]

Surprisingly consistent the last few runs through the weekend.

 

The weekend has looked gorgeous on every run lately.

Might hit 50, would be very close to normal. Chilly nights though.

[Jesse]

Tim, I don't think the Euro is "seeing" snow cover down here by the weekend. That's probably just cold outflow.

[Requiem]

[TT-SEA]

Agreed, these Euro maps are garbage. Who keeps posting them?

 

 

There are some obvious biases... accumulating snow above freezing and keeping snow cover around much longer than reality are big ones.

 

It also runs 3-5 degrees too cool for the Puget Sound region for most of the warm season.

 

Accounting for those biases helps.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, I don't think the Euro is "seeing" snow cover down here by the weekend. That's probably just cold outflow.

 

 

Cold outflow in Eugene?    

 

I can tell you exactly where it thinks there will be snow cover.   Here is the snow depth map for Sunday afternoon.  

 

[Jesse]

There are some obvious biases... accumulating snow above freezing and keeping snow cover around much longer than reality are big ones.

 

It also runs 3-5 degrees too cool for the Puget Sound for most of the warm season.

 

Accounting for those biases helps.

 

Just like accounting for yours. Generally great analysis, just some very obvious errors that frequently crop up.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Good little flurry storm here at the moment.  Temps have dipped into the low 30s so I'm actually getting more accumulation right now than through the whole event.  

[Jesse]

Cold outflow in Eugene?    

 

I can tell you exactly where it thinks there will be snow cover.   Here is the snow depth map for Sunday afternoon.

 

 

That's retarded looking.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00Z EURO still showing a cold pool with strong Gorge outflow next Monday. Can't believe it will be early March already.

 

[Deweydog]

Cold outflow in Eugene?

 

I can tell you exactly where it thinks there will be snow cover. Here is the snow depth map for Sunday afternoon.

 

Eugene!!!

[Requiem]

Good little flurry storm here at the moment. Temps have dipped into the low 30s so I'm actually getting more accumulation right now than through the whole event.

Wow, still going out there?

[Deweydog]

Good little flurry storm here at the moment. Temps have dipped into the low 30s so I'm actually getting more accumulation right now than through the whole event.

1-10-17

[Guest CulverJosh]

Wow, still going out there?

 

Yep, very tiny flakes but a lot of them, lol.  Actually the first time the trees have turned white here.  4 degrees sure makes a difference.  And call me crazy but I see some junk at the coast that may swing in overnight, enhancing a little.   This low cloud deck with these cold temps will spit some more stuff out surely.

[TT-SEA]

That's retarded looking.

 

 

That is a big problem for its temperature output... it thinks there is still snow on the ground down there.     Don't count on it being that cold.  

[MossMan]

So I’m getting a foot of snow...SWEET!

[Guest CulverJosh]

1-10-17

 

Ha ha.  I wish, but better than 36 degree snow.

[Requiem]

Yep, very tiny flakes but a lot of them, lol. Actually the first time the trees have turned white here. 4 degrees sure makes a difference. And call me crazy but I see some junk at the coast that may swing in overnight, enhancing a little. This low could deck with these cold temps will spit some more stuff out surely.

I’d believe it! Anyways, radar shows jack-squat yet there’s pixie dust falling at a constant rate. Nelsen is calling for an icy commute tomorrow, and I don’t doubt his warning one bit looking at the roads.

[Cloud]

Euro teased us with some ridiculous 14-18 inch snow maps too, Those numbers did actually happen, it was just off by a 100 miles or so which of course is a fairly small error for a global weather model. Still a huge tease though.

Totals 100% verified.. it just couldn’t pinpoint the location. However, I’m not going to hold against it on a single model run and was extremely pessimistic for Central Sound based on the setup. The south trend was definitely a heartbreaker for PDX though.

[TT-SEA]

In fact... I just checked and the ECMWF still thinks there is snow on the ground down there next Tuesday.  

 

Once you get past the snow events over the next couple days... then it will reset itself down to zero and be accurate again.   Its assuming all of that snow that falls down there through Friday will be there for a long time.    

 

This has been a problem all month really.  All those snowfall maps that did not verify... also led to cold temp maps that did not verify.  

[MossMan]

So 43, 40, 43, 45 this week (Tues-Fri) for me according to the Euro temp maps...let’s see what happens!

Guess what my high was today?

[Jesse]

That is a big problem for its temperature output... it thinks there is still snow on the ground down there.     Don't count on it being that cold.  

 

Uncounted! Really figured we'd be in the 30s for days with full March sunshine.

[Deweydog]

So is next weekend looking colder or not!??!!!!!!!!!!!!???????

[El_Nina]

Yep, very tiny flakes but a lot of them, lol. Actually the first time the trees have turned white here. 4 degrees sure makes a difference. And call me crazy but I see some junk at the coast that may swing in overnight, enhancing a little. This low cloud deck with these cold temps will spit some more stuff out surely.

No way that precip makes it here. Also flurrying atm

[Jesse]

So is next weekend looking colder or not!??!!!!!!!!!!!!???????

I’m very lost and my respect for the Euro is approaching all time lows.

 

Even without those garbage surface temp maps the general pattern is pretty weird, though. That’s one hell of a Basin cold pool for the first few days of spring.

[Cloud]

So is next weekend looking colder or not!??!!!!!!!!!!!!???????

Below normal.

 

That helps?

[Deweydog]

Snow is FINALLY winding down here.

 

Picked up either 7/8 or 13/16 of an inch depending on whether I use the Stanley or Kobalt tape.

[TT-SEA]

So 43, 40, 43, 45 this week (Tues-Fri) for me according to the Euro temp maps...let’s see what happens!

Guess what my high was today?

 

 

No idea.

 

It was 44 at SEA today... and in North Bend.  

 

Warmer than what the 00Z ECMWF showed last night.  

[MikeInEverett]

Wonder if those echoes east of Bellevue on I-90 are reaching the ground.

[TT-SEA]

Wonder if those echoes east of Bellevue on I-90 are reaching the ground.

 

Doubt it.

 

I can see stars through the high overcast... despite being under an echo on the radar.

 

Radar is in clear air mode and sensitive to virga.   The lower levels are very dry.  

[Perturbed Member]

Totals 100% verified.. it just couldn’t pinpoint the location. However, I’m not going to hold against it on a single model run and was extremely pessimistic for Central Sound based on the setup. The south trend was definitely a heartbreaker for PDX though.

 

 

Some models were always way south, like the GFS and they pretty much never showed a big snowstorm for PDX. I think some of us were hoping the north and south models would meet a bit in the middle. Instead all the north track models completely caved and things continued to trend south until the end. Certainly an unusual outcome. Anecdotal evidence usually supports a northern track for these setups.

 

I got a total of .08 in precip from this entire event. Funny how much analysis there was of every model and every run over this minuscule amount of precip all because it was going to be frozen instead of liquid. 

[MossMan]

No idea.

 

It was 44 at SEA today... and in North Bend.

 

Warmer than what the 00Z ECMWF showed last night.

43! However DP’s remained below freezing so my snow went nowhere.

[Cloud]

Doubt it.

 

I can see stars through the high overcast... despite being under an echo on the radar.

 

Radar is in clear air mode and sensitive to virga. The lower levels are very dry.

Texted a buddy in Newcastle as he sits under the echos. It wasn’t reaching the ground earlier but it is now. Light flurries.

[Jesse]

Hopefully EUG can fall to 32 before midnight. Would be sort of lame to see such an historic late season storm without even recording a daily low at or below freezing.

[Perturbed Member]

Hopefully EUG can fall to 32 before midnight. Would be sort of lame to see such an historic late season storm without even recording a daily low at or below freezing.

 

Lame yeah but kind of interesting in a way too. The idea of getting over a foot of snow without being able to get down to freezing is kind of ridiculous and a unique feat.