February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Cloud]

Doubt it.

 

I can see stars through the high overcast... despite being under an echo on the radar.

 

Radar is in clear air mode and sensitive to virga. The lower levels are very dry.

You can also see some heavier showers on the radar. Those are definitely reaching the ground. Around Newcastle and Mercer Island.

[TT-SEA]

Texted a buddy in Newcastle as he sits under the echos. It wasn’t reaching the ground earlier but it is now. Light flurries.

Exciting!

[Cloud]

Can’t break it but can tie it. Make it happen!

 

https://twitter.com/nwsseattle/status/1100276408125964288?s=21

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully EUG can fall to 32 before midnight. Would be sort of lame to see such an historic late season storm without even recording a daily low at or below freezing.

I hope Phil sees this.

 

It happens in the PNW. Happens all the time for me and Andrew.

[Phil]

[Phil]

Storm surge...or..ice surge?

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1100120376032616450

[Phil]

Feels like this has been ongoing forever:

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

If you look at the high resolution satellite of the boundary in southern Oregon, it is very beautiful to watch actually.   Looks like some development happening right now and if we can get some strong injection from the trough curling near the OR/WA border then I definitely see enough dynamics to give PDX some action overnight tomorrow into Wednesday. 

 

Just a real time analysis without any model input.  So don't beat me up guys. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Storm surge...or..ice surge?

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1100120376032616450

That's crazy!

[Cloud]

[Phil]

I hope Phil sees this.

 

It happens in the PNW. Happens all the time for me and Andrew.

I’m aware..it happens here too. I’ve seen it snow with temps at/above 50*F on two occasions with late April frontal passages.

 

But above-freezing snow doesn’t stick around for days beautifully clinging to every twig in 40 degree weather the way it mysteriously does at your house, where the laws of physics seem to not apply.

[Requiem]

[Cloud]

Storm surge...or..ice surge?

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1100120376032616450

Should box some that up so i can build an igloo.

[Phil]

[Phil]

Brrrr.

 

[Phil]

The Sun is still spotless! 26 days and counting..can we make it at least 2 more?

[Cloud]

The Sun is still spotless! 26 days and counting..can we make it at least 2 more?

I actually had to read this up and came across this. This was wrote in 2017.

 

“This is the longest stretch of spotlessness since the last solar minimum in April 2010, indicating the solar cycle is marching on toward the next minimum, which scientists predict will occur between 2019—2020," NASA officials wrote in a statement. ”

 

Nice prediction? This does have an impact to the current weather pattern does it not? Trying to understand here.

https://www.space.com/36188-spotless-sun-has-no-sunspots.html

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice and peaceful out there. Occasional light flurries but mostly stopped now. Still cloudy and right at or above freezing.

[Wxmidatlantic]

Strictly speaking Alex Jones views government data as what ever supports the globalist agenda.

 

Manipulation, figures lie and liars figure. He swears by the woollyworm. If it is really really dark, then, it will be really really cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Partly cloudy and 21 currently. Beautiful morning. 

 

Ended up getting down to 25 before midnight too. Also nice to see parts of the valley have some occasional clearing. SLE and Mac have both hit 26 at some point this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All time record low at Redmond for March is -1. This map shows them hitting -15 on next Monday.

 

[Andrew.]

26.2 here this morning with still roughly an inch on the ground and very icy.

[Bodhijr]

This guy has a lot of info about the Sun.

Ben davidson

 

https://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers

 

Very Smart dude!

[TT-SEA]

I’m aware..it happens here too. I’ve seen it snow with temps at/above 50*F on two occasions with late April frontal passages.

 

But above-freezing snow doesn’t stick around for days beautifully clinging to every twig in 40 degree weather the way it mysteriously does at your house, where the laws of physics seem to not apply.

You can't keep up with your own trolling over the years.

 

You mocked me for months last winter for saying that this snowfall in early November could never have happened without it going below freezing. The fact is that it did snow enough to make everything white here and at SEA without going below freezing. And it was gone the next morning. It did not stay for days. And it did not actually drop below freezing for almost another month... not until 12/4/17.

 

 

This was 3 days after the first snowstorm this month. I posted a picture every morning from the same spot that week and there were subtle changes. It was dry through the week until Friday afternoon. And the trees stayed flocked. But it was only in the low 30s that week with dry air. The trees never stay flocked at 40 degrees. Not even 35 unless its within a month of the solstice and there is really dry air.

 

 

Show me where I have ever said the trees stayed flocked in 40-degree weather. We did have a 6-inch layer of ice pellets/graupel that survived one day of 50 degrees in early April last year... which was annoying enough to me. But the trees were certainly not flocked at the end of that day.

 

You just make stuff up as go along... trolling is your main goal.   But I do often think that it is impossibly beautiful here... so we agree on that.    

[Andrew.]

That was a fun slip slide adventure down the hill this morning. Our hill goes from about 1000 feet to 400 feet in a quarter of a mile.

[TT-SEA]

12Z NAM actually agrees with the ECMWF... showing some snow down in Oregon tomorrow and with this little system late Thursday night into Friday morning.

 

[Timmy]

12Z NAM actually agrees with the ECMWF... showing some snow down in Oregon tomorrow and with this little system late Thursday night into Friday morning.

 

Good time of day for accumulations!

[Timmy]

23f under clear skies here this morning.

 

Should be cold day with gorge outflow increasing.

[FroYoBro]

Looks like the skies cleared right before sunrise.

 

29 and very icy with a trace or snow from yesterday evening.

[Kayla]

Kind of a neat graphic from the Billings NWS showing how Montana has become the new Arctic Circle. 

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/20uu8mh.jpg

[FroYoBro]

The GFS shows that tonight could be my 4th night in a row of getting a little bit of snow.  

[TT-SEA]

Snow is coming back soon to western OR... just a few hours away. 

 

[umadbro]

Really isn't very much moisture tonight. I'd be shocked to see more than an inch Salem to Portland.

[Timmy]

Snow is coming back soon to western OR... just a few hours away.

 

Wow with that north trend that low will end up tracking over Vancouver island!

[Front Ranger]

Regarding the solar stuff...

 

One thing you have to keep in mind is that not all solar cycles and solar mins are alike. Solar Cycle 24, which is just wrapping up, had the lowest amount of solar activity from start to finish of any cycle in over 100 years. You can see in this graph how much lower it was than the previous cycle.

 

 

There are some theories that the effects of low solar might be cumulative. While there is considerable evidence that solar mins between any cycles usually produce greater blocking, there is also some evidence that cycles with lower activity in general might lead to greater effects on the atmosphere.

 

The solar min in 2008-10 was the deepest in decades, and as some solar scientists expected, ended up being a harbinger for a quieter SC 24. We have yet to drop to the nearly dead sun levels seen in that min, and at this point the absolute min is still probably at least 6-12 months away.

 

We may not be entering a grand solar minimum, but there is no question that we are seeing the quietest sun in over a century, so it's not surprising we are seeing crazy high latitude blocking at this point.

[Kayla]

Regarding the solar stuff...

 

One thing you have to keep in mind is that not all solar cycles and solar mins are alike. Solar Cycle 24, which is just wrapping up, had the lowest amount of solar activity from start to finish of any cycle in over 100 years. You can see in this graph how much lower it was than the previous cycle.

 

solar-cycles-23-and-24.gif

 

There are some theories that the effects of low solar might be cumulative. While there is considerable evidence that solar mins between any cycles usually produce greater blocking, there is also some evidence that cycles with lower activity in general might lead to greater effects on the atmosphere.

 

The solar min in 2008-10 was the deepest in decades, and as some solar scientists expected, ended up being a harbinger for a quieter SC 24. We have yet to drop to the nearly dead sun levels seen in that min, and at this point the absolute min is still probably at least 6-12 months away.

 

We may not be entering a grand solar minimum, but there is no question that we are seeing the quietest sun in over a century, so it's not surprising we are seeing crazy high latitude blocking at this point.

 

Great info. Crazy to think next winter could be even blockier.

[Blizzard777]

That’s some cold air back home!

Federal Way

25* currently

Dew point 19*

Sunny

 

Tigard

30*

Dew point 25*

Very light dusting of snow that fell last night still on raised surfaces and spots on ground

Sunny

[ShawniganLake]

17F here this morning. Colder than I expected but we lost the outflow wind overnight. The other side of the lake (probably 1.5miles away) still has a breeze and is around 27F.

[TT-SEA]

Regarding the solar stuff...

 

One thing you have to keep in mind is that not all solar cycles and solar mins are alike. Solar Cycle 24, which is just wrapping up, had the lowest amount of solar activity from start to finish of any cycle in over 100 years. You can see in this graph how much lower it was than the previous cycle.

 

solar-cycles-23-and-24.gif

 

There are some theories that the effects of low solar might be cumulative. While there is considerable evidence that solar mins between any cycles usually produce greater blocking, there is also some evidence that cycles with lower activity in general might lead to greater effects on the atmosphere.

 

The solar min in 2008-10 was the deepest in decades, and as some solar scientists expected, ended up being a harbinger for a quieter SC 24. We have yet to drop to the nearly dead sun levels seen in that min, and at this point the absolute min is still probably at least 6-12 months away.

 

We may not be entering a grand solar minimum, but there is no question that we are seeing the quietest sun in over a century, so it's not surprising we are seeing crazy high latitude blocking at this point.

 

 

Great information.

 

Blocking is going to continue.   The jet stream will likely be very quiet for the next year.   

 

I am guessing alternating periods of deep troughing and strong ridging... and probably a dry year overall here.

[TT-SEA]

17F here this morning. Colder than I expected but we lost the outflow wind overnight. The other side of the lake (probably 1.5miles away) still has a breeze and is around 27F.

 

 

29 here this morning and in North Bend... guess there was some cloud cover and a little east wind overnight.    Totally sunny this morning though.