Mountain West Discussion

[Black Hole]

Winter Storm Watch for 8-16" this weekend.

Nice long duration storm. Looks to me like some good cold air damming to start the event off. With easterly flow increasing in depth with time. Nice PV anomaly aloft and strong just to the south for a few days. No reason not to think a lot of snow is coming.

[Front Ranger]

Have already met the warning amounts here. Got 8-9" last night as a band stalled over the area for a few hours. If the rest of the storm goes as predicted, could easily end up with over 15".

[Black Hole]

None of it will affect me personally but two interesting weather events in Utah the next few days. Central and Southern Utah to get big totals under a highly energized deformation zone. Probably a general 6-12" under the heavier stuff, more in the mountains.

 

Also, high wind event along the Wasatch Front east slopes tonight but mostly Sunday night. Looks like some gusts to 60mph could be possible. I am about 10 miles away from the mountains and the winds don't ever reach me.

[Front Ranger]

Very heavy band moved through earlier with the passage of the Arctic front. It was near white-out conditions at times as I was driving, as you can see in the video. 

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

It is good to see someone in the West finally getting some decent snowfall! Snow has been really hard to come by with this ultra-dominant Western ridge / Eastern trough pattern and the abnormally warm temperatures that have accompanied the storms that have hit the area.

[Front Ranger]

About 16" on the ground, with another 2-4" possible today/tonight. Biggest storm since Feb 2012 here.

[Black Hole]

Storms in Utah seem to be verifying with quite a bit of snow falling in south central Utah. Wind warning is for gusts to 65 mph tonight near canyons in the SLC area. Nothing will happen at my house because I am too far from the hills. May see some snow showers towards next weekend though.

[Front Ranger]

Storms in Utah seem to be verifying with quite a bit of snow falling in south central Utah. Wind warning is for gusts to 65 mph tonight near canyons in the SLC area. Nothing will happen at my house because I am too far from the hills. May see some snow showers towards next weekend though.

 

I like your chances with the upcoming pattern. Could see your snow totals double in a short period of time.

 

With the recent storms, Boulder has already set their record for Feb snowfall with 36.8". And a couple more snowfalls possible before month's end.

 

DEN, on the other hand, only has 16.2" on the month, which shows you how much snowfall can vary around the area.

[Black Hole]

I like your chances with the upcoming pattern. Could see your snow totals double in a short period of time.

 

With the recent storms, Boulder has already set their record for Feb snowfall with 36.8". And a couple more snowfalls possible before month's end.

 

DEN, on the other hand, only has 16.2" on the month, which shows you how much snowfall can vary around the area.

Certainly the potential is there. 00z ECMWF has 507dm thickness and -26C at 700mb in early March. That'd be nice!

 

Didn't know that about Boulder though, that's crazy.

[Front Ranger]

Geez, NWS calling for 5-10" more here tomorrow through Thursday. Turning into an epic month for snowfall. Very possible DEN sets their Feb record for snow as well.

[Black Hole]

ECMWF showing 1-2" on Thursday while the GFS has nothing. Not sure which way to lean right now but hopefully things clear up tomorrow some.

[Front Ranger]

I've picked up over 4" today on top of the 16" that fell over the weekend. By tomorrow morning, even with compaction I wouldn't be surprised if I have about 2 feet on the ground. I'll try to post some pics.

[Black Hole]

Probably some flakes tomorrow and Saturday, but no accumulation. Could be a different story on Mon-Tue as an arctic front moves in. If it taps enough moisture could get a couple inches with that.

[Black Hole]

Snowed a bit today. No accumulation at my house but there was about 2" up at the University where I go to school. It was nice to see a storm overperform a bit.

 

Saturday will be close with the deformation axis. Could see almost nothing, or several inches. I just don't know. Tues-Wed look frigid with that arctic freight train coming south.

[Front Ranger]

DEN finally broke their February snowfall record as well. It was pretty weak, though, just 22.1" (the previous record). Considering every other month from Oct-Apr has a higher record. Still, DIA sucks for snow, so it's impressive they managed it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interestingly through yesterday Denver was running a +3.4 departure

[Front Ranger]

Interestingly through yesterday Denver was running a +3.4 departure

 

Yup, like much of the West we torched the first half of the month, though still managed a couple snowfalls. The second half of the month has been insane, though. After what was probably the warmest first half of Feb on record, we are going to end up with one of the coldest second halves.

[Black Hole]

The chance of snow and cold is dwindling with time. No sure bets at this point and the trough for early next week went from impressive to run of the mill.

[Front Ranger]

26/6 at DEN today. This makes 6 out of the last 8 days below freezing, when the average high is now about 50. And the cold isn't over yet...looks like a high in the 32-35 range tomorrow, then a high in the low 20s, followed by a high in the teens.

 

Pretty remarkable stretch for this late in the season.

[Black Hole]

Although this storm is vastly watered down from what it could have been, the next 48 hours will be interesting to watch. HRRR is showing snow or a mix in the morning and all the global models put SLC on the NW end of a baroclinic band tomorrow evening with some snow. Then the arctic boundary should drop a little more snow Tuesday morning with 700mb temps falling to around -15C.

 

End result is probably 1-3" at my house with a high in the 30s Tues-Wed and lows in the teens.

[Black Hole]

Very intense cold front with blizzard conditions for a while. My house got about 4" which was on the high end for the valleys. Some of the benches north of me got a foot! It will all be gone soon but I will enjoy it while it lasts. This was the biggest storm all season.

[Front Ranger]

Very intense cold front with blizzard conditions for a while. My house got about 4" which was on the high end for the valleys. Some of the benches north of me got a foot! It will all be gone soon but I will enjoy it while it lasts. This was the biggest storm all season.

 

About time you got hit!

[Front Ranger]

Casper, WY had a low of -13 this morning, their coldest temp this late in the season since 1989.

 

Going to be a very cold night around here. Temp currently at 8 degrees, will probably bottom out around 0. But then the warmup finally begins tomorrow with temps near 40, and then in the 50s by Friday.

[Black Hole]

Should be around 70F every day through Wed. Trees are in bloom now too, several weeks early.

[luminen]

pretty low dew points in the Denver area right now. It's -4F where I am. Pleasant temperature around 70F.

[Black Hole]

pretty low dew points in the Denver area right now. It's -4F where I am. Pleasant temperature around 70F.

Have you moved over there now or has that not happened yet?

[luminen]

yeah I'm pretty much moved over but looking for work. It's a lot easier in person to get hired. I might move to OKC in a month or so though depending on a job I interviewed for. I visited SLC for a night along the way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

yeah I'm pretty much moved over but looking for work. It's a lot easier in person to get hired. I might move to OKC in a month or so though depending on a job I interviewed for. I visited SLC for a night along the way.

I hope for your sake you never have to go to okc again.

[luminen]

Yeah, it's definitely a strange place and way too hot in the summer.

 

Colorado feels more like home. Although it reached 80F today   with single digit RH again. 

[Black Hole]

Yeah, it's definitely a strange place and way too hot in the summer.

 

Colorado feels more like home. Although it reached 80F today   with single digit RH again. 

That happens almost every day here in SLC from late June through late July before the monsoon kicks in.

[luminen]

Moderate snow falling now in downtown Denver. Started out as rain earlier today and changed over around 730am. 

[Front Ranger]

Moderate snow falling now in downtown Denver. Started out as rain earlier today and changed over around 730am. 

 

Got about an inch here.

[Black Hole]

Sunny and warm here again! Looks like a great day at least and it should continue through the weekend.

[Front Ranger]

Very warm and windy day here. Got up to 78.

 

Went for a bike ride to a nearby lake. You can see the white caps from the wind on the water, and if you look close, in the distance before the mountains you can see some wind turbines that are spinning. You can also see that everything here is still dead and brown in winter mode - will be a lot prettier in 2-3 weeks. Crappy quality, but hey...it's a phone video.

 

I feel pretty fortunate to live so close to a large body of water, as they're fairly rare around here. 

 

[luminen]

I was at Chatfield Lake and Roxborough Park yesterday. I didn't see any whitecaps at Chatfield. The grass and vegetation greens up in 2-3 weeks usually? What about trees? I noticed one or two species of trees are green right now but that's it and they're not too common.

 

Standley looks like a better lake by the way.

[Front Ranger]

I was at Chatfield Lake and Roxborough Park yesterday. I didn't see any whitecaps at Chatfield. The grass and vegetation greens up in 2-3 weeks usually? What about trees? I noticed one or two species of trees are green right now but that's it and they're not too common.

 

Standley looks like a better lake by the way.

 

Yeah, assuming we get some precip over the next couple weeks, things should be much greener by the third week of April. And a lot of trees usually start blooming/leafing out by mid April as well.

 

Standley is just about the biggest lake in the metro area, I believe, though Chatfield is longer and Cherry Creek is close. And it doesn't get as crowded in the summer as those ones. If you go out east on 76, near Brighton there is Barr Lake, which is even larger and pretty nice. 

[Front Ranger]

Highs in the upper 70s tomorrow, then near 40 on Thursday with snow likely that night.

 

Welcome to spring on the Front Range, luminem.

[luminen]

Yeah this coming snow looks like the best shot since I've moved here. 

 

Back to 60s/70s for the weekend probably. 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah this coming snow looks like the best shot since I've moved here. 

 

Back to 60s/70s for the weekend probably. 

 

50s/60s, but yeah, that's how it usually goes this time of year. Looking forward to convective season really getting going in the next month and hopefully some nice t-storms.

[Front Ranger]

Isn't PDO+/ENSO+ favorable to a big monsoon season?

 

I don't think it has a big affect on the monsoon season, at least around here, but +PDO/+ENSO does favor wetter springs on average.