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Spring & Summer 2023 Outlook & Discussion


Tom

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Gary Lezaks thoughts on the 2023 hurricane season.

Potential for 2 concurrent storms in Atlantic and Gulf

Texas/Louisiana Are Targets After A Quiet 2022

Prediction: Expect More Activity Than 2022
 

KANSAS CITY (PRWEB) MAY 03, 2023

Today Weather 20/20 LLC released its 2023 hurricane season disaster predictions. The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be more active than 2022. The forecast includes 14-18 named tropical storms, near to above the average of 14. Of these named storms, 6-8 will become hurricane strength and three to four will be classified as major hurricanes. Most of the activity will not strike the USA coastline with 3 to 5 named storms predicted to make a USA landfall this year.

There are three main targets in this hurricane season forecast. Businesses located in and close to these hot spots, including near the North Carolina coast, the east coast of Florida, and near the Texas/Louisiana state line region are advised to increase their long-range disaster preparedness.

If you knew, what would you do? Weather 20/20 was the only one of the 29 organizations tracked by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center to predict a below average season in 2022. Most others had predicted a hyperactive season. Weather 20/20 is applying the same LRC® technology/methodology that made that successful 2022 prediction this year to know where & when tropical storms, severe weather outbreaks, and other significant weather events will happen around the world. Our customers are already preparing for two potential impacting tropical systems near the peak of hurricane season, one targeting eastern Florida, and a second one forming in the Gulf of Mexico around the same time.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The coolest temperature anomalies (w/ respect to climo) this summer will probably occur in the SW US.

Northern US more likely to finish warmer/drier than average.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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23 hours ago, Phil said:

The coolest temperature anomalies (w/ respect to climo) this summer will probably occur in the SW US.

Northern US more likely to finish warmer/drier than average.

How do you see things playing out in the southern Plains? 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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  • 2 months later...

We get 3 days under 100, M-W !

We’re expecting 97-98*. 
Should feel like a cold front.  
Back into the frying pan Wednesday and 106*.  Enjoy while I can.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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On 5/6/2023 at 9:01 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

"Year Without A Summer" guy would be me, Tom. Lol. This actually aligns very very well with my ideas going forward. The central ridge look in place now being transient, with an eventual anchor-point southwest as summer goes. 

The ENSO/PDO/Arctic domains are critical for the next 3 months.

What may ultimately set up is a compromise, though. Resulting in persistence in the "dust bowl" region already experiencing drought conditions. It really depends largely on how fast the pac jet gets rolling later in the season, imo.

The year without a summer held up poorly unless you consider this the compromise part. The northern parts have had the coolest summer in a long time, while the SW regions until recently have verified well. The ridge complex ultimately setup right from San Antonio to Arizona and extended north into my state and beyond ( Dust Bowl region), setting records as it went, so I'd rate that as pretty accurate.

Thankfully at peak drought, a lot of folks saw great rainfall and even some major recovery in some areas due to what I believed to be a great inland store of water out of Colorado and points NW receiving abundance of water in the winter and spring. 

I guess the blown part of my forecast is this week, really. Never imagined the ridge resetting up over the heartland for the finale of summer and I'm truly disappointed about that. 

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On 8/19/2023 at 1:56 AM, OKwx2k4 said:

The year without a summer held up poorly unless you consider this the compromise part. The northern parts have had the coolest summer in a long time, while the SW regions until recently have verified well. The ridge complex ultimately setup right from San Antonio to Arizona and extended north into my state and beyond ( Dust Bowl region), setting records as it went, so I'd rate that as pretty accurate.

Thankfully at peak drought, a lot of folks saw great rainfall and even some major recovery in some areas due to what I believed to be a great inland store of water out of Colorado and points NW receiving abundance of water in the winter and spring. 

I guess the blown part of my forecast is this week, really. Never imagined the ridge resetting up over the heartland for the finale of summer and I'm truly disappointed about that. 

I'm thinking this ridge was amplified quite a bit by a few ill placed features (such as Hillary combining with a western trough). I doubt we'd have gotten so hot again otherwise. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

I'm thinking this ridge was amplified quite a bit by a few ill placed features (such as Hillary combining with a western trough). I doubt we'd have gotten so hot again otherwise. 

I agree very much with that, but it still "is what it is". 

In defense as well, is the fact that one just can't predict extremes like this at seasonal range. One may call out potential stuff that could lead to extremes or use analog years that have those extreme events but betting on a 100-1 or more shot at 3 months out is not sensible. 

There's not a person anywhere that I'm aware of who predicted a California hurricane at range nor the Atlantic pumping dry air all summer long until the absolutely worst part of it and now we're all in 80 degree dewpoints. 

A very wild summer is an understatement. 

If Niño forcing can shift west, my belief is leaning toward this ridge becoming a future part of the warm PDO signature that goes with Niño. Hoping it retrogrades out west soon. 

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51 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I agree very much with that, but it still "is what it is". 

In defense as well, is the fact that one just can't predict extremes like this at seasonal range. One may call out potential stuff that could lead to extremes or use analog years that have those extreme events but betting on a 100-1 or more shot at 3 months out is not sensible. 

There's not a person anywhere that I'm aware of who predicted a California hurricane at range nor the Atlantic pumping dry air all summer long until the absolutely worst part of it and now we're all in 80 degree dewpoints. 

A very wild summer is an understatement. 

If Niño forcing can shift west, my belief is leaning toward this ridge becoming a future part of the warm PDO signature that goes with Niño. Hoping it retrogrades out west soon. 

Yes, I agree with all this too. I know there is some disagreement on whether that warm water really shifts west or not but I am inclined to think it will at this time. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Yes, I agree with all this too. I know there is some disagreement on whether that warm water really shifts west or not but I am inclined to think it will at this time. 

I still think so too even though I've not said it much lately. It looks like to me it has already started. It's just not materialised yet, if that makes any sense. 

Also as I look at the Euro today, I actually do see this giant ridge briefly shift west and poke up into Canada, so I still do have a lot of hope for a pretty radical shift in September. 

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