July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

I actually have the North Bend NWS forecast bookmarked on one of my phone tabs. I’ve had it open for the last month. Your weather has been great compared to almost everyone else’s.

Why North Bend?

[TT-SEA]

Why North Bend?

 

He is constantly trolling out of anger.

[GHweatherChris]

Lol

[Jesse]

He is constantly trolling out of anger.

 

Call the police! F*ck it, call Dewey!

[Deweydog]

Call the police! F*ck it, call Dewey!

Must have been another night in the 60’s at PDX...

[Jesse]

FYI, our tree die off in Washington...I'm seeing a lot, especially cedars.

http://www.thereflector.com/garden_scene/article_1c398112-a1c1-11e9-a604-63cafa5cee37.html?fbclid=IwAR1OyAWxQvVM2RtyUybNQQmd-dTVPUi0kyP0W3bMEep5VwR6YubxDb4YuHg

 

Good article, at least the issue is getting some attention.

 

No one really knows what is causing the bigleaf maple die back. There is a PhD student at UW who I have collaborated with that is trying to figure out the underlying cause. It could be a pathogen of some sort. Whatever the case, the ongoing drought makes trees more vulnerable to a whole host of issues they would otherwise be able to fight off more effectively. 

[Jesse]

Nice morning here, partly cloudy and 64 after a low of 58.

[ShawniganLake]

Good article, at least the issue is getting some attention.

 

No one really knows what is causing the bigleaf maple die back. There is a PhD student at UW who I have collaborated with that is trying to figure out the underlying cause. It could be a pathogen of some sort. Whatever the case, the ongoing drought makes trees more vulnerable to a whole host of issues they would otherwise be able to fight off more effectively.

I have heard recently that there are large areas of salal die off across Vancouver Island and other coastal areas. Plant stress is thought to be the cause.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS keeps the trough more consolidated later in the week... which also seems to accelerate the timing of the warm up.    Its much faster than its 00Z run because the main trough leaves less energy behind next weekend on the new 12Z run.

[Jesse]

I have heard recently that there are large areas of salal die off across Vancouver Island and other coastal areas. Plant stress is thought to be the cause.

 

You must mean drought stress. But yeah, the native vegetation here just isn't adapted to withstand one scorching and bone dry summer after another like we've seen recently. This summer has been an improvement so far, but my guess is we could lose the ground we made up early with a hotter late season.

[TT-SEA]

You must mean drought stress. But yeah, the native vegetation here just isn't adapted to withstand one scorching and bone dry summer after another like we've seen recently. This summer has been an improvement so far, but my guess is we could lose the ground we made up early with a hotter late season.

 

 

No... the plants just have busier schedules now.    And social media is making everyone more stressed.

[Phil]

OK Phil.

 

3 weeks with almost no sun in the middle of summer sucks. No way around it and you would say the same thing if you lived here. And the forecast on my phone was endlessly too optimistic. Constantly teasing decent summer weather but the reality was days of gloomy weather.

 

Don't tell me otherwise. We experienced it first hand.

Does that mean the Euro was constantly teasing summer weather too? Or was the phone app going rogue?

[Phil]

Why North Bend?

Not just North Bend, but I monitor it.

 

[ShawniganLake]

No... the plants just have busier schedules now. And social media is making everyone more stressed.

I used the term plant stress because to my knowledge there was no sign of disease.

[TT-SEA]

Does that mean the Euro was constantly teasing summer weather too? Or was the phone app going rogue?

 

Yeah... the reality locally was consistently worse than the ECMWF was showing as well.    At least beyond day 2 or 3.     

[TT-SEA]

Not just North Bend, but I monitor it.

 

 

 

 

I live in your head.   I never pay attention to the weather in DC.   

[Farmboy]

Good article, at least the issue is getting some attention.

 

No one really knows what is causing the bigleaf maple die back. There is a PhD student at UW who I have collaborated with that is trying to figure out the underlying cause. It could be a pathogen of some sort. Whatever the case, the ongoing drought makes trees more vulnerable to a whole host of issues they would otherwise be able to fight off more effectively.

 

Could be caused by an insect? There was a mass tree die off near here, a lot of people think it was caused by forest fire, when in fact it was caused by an invasive species of beetle..

[Phil]

Good article, at least the issue is getting some attention.

 

No one really knows what is causing the bigleaf maple die back. There is a PhD student at UW who I have collaborated with that is trying to figure out the underlying cause. It could be a pathogen of some sort. Whatever the case, the ongoing drought makes trees more vulnerable to a whole host of issues they would otherwise be able to fight off more effectively.

I’m sure you know this already, but if it began in 2011, it’s probably an introduced pathogen taking advantage of compromised trees, since that was a cool/wet summer.

 

If it was an introduced insect rather than a pathogen (Ash Borer Beetle, for instance) there would be evidence of tunneling/etc in the vascular tissue, and I’m sure you guys have looked at the wood of afflicted trees.

[Deweydog]

 

I live in your head. I never pay attention to the weather in DC.

I hear it’s hoomid.

[Jesse]

Could be caused by an insect? There was a mass tree die off near here, a lot of people think it was caused by forest fire, when in fact it was caused by an invasive species of beetle..

 

Possibly, although that would be easier to identify so they probably would have figured it out by now if that was the case. But insects are responsible for much of the conifer die off around here. Drought puts the trees in a weakened state so insect problems that wouldn't kill healthier trees are wiping the drought stressed trees out, so the indirect cause is drought even if that isn't what is directly taking the tree out.

[Jesse]

I hear it’s hoomid.

 

That was fast!

 

#speeddial

[Phil]

12Z GFS keeps the trough more consolidated later in the week... which also seems to accelerate the timing of the warm up. Its much faster than its 00Z run because the main trough leaves less energy behind next weekend on the new 12Z run.

The trough is more consolidated offshore because the upstream forcing that broadens the axis of subtropical subsidence from 125W to 90W establishes more quickly, and that naturally induces the +TNH/western ridge response more quickly, before the trough can move in.

 

It’s just an acceleration of the intraseasonal progression. Typical model waffling. Ordinary stuff.

[Jesse]

I’m sure you know this already, but if it began in 2011, it’s probably an introduced pathogen taking advantage of compromised trees, since that was a cool/wet summer.

 

If it was an introduced insect rather than a pathogen (Ash Borer Beetle, for instance) there would be evidence of tunneling/etc in the vascular tissue, and I’m sure you guys have looked at the wood of afflicted trees.

 

We've been able to pretty much rule out insect, since that would be obvious for reasons you mentioned. Unknown pathogen is possible if not probable. Whatever it is it seems to become more effective at causing spotty crown death or outright killing the whole tree when summers are hot and dry.

[Phil]

 

I live in your head. I never pay attention to the weather in DC.

I have family in Seattle, Scottsdale, and Bradenton. That’s why I follow the weather there.

 

I follow Denver and Portland out of curiosity. And yes, your overwhelming presence here is why I follow North Bend. I want to see if it’s as terrible a place as you claim it is.

[ShawniganLake]

Could be caused by an insect? There was a mass tree die off near here, a lot of people think it was caused by forest fire, when in fact it was caused by an invasive species of beetle..

Pine beetle? There is something like 40 million acres infected in B.C. dead pine trees as far as the eye can see. Part of the reason the fire seasons have been so bad up here. Of course the warming climate is believed to be contributing to the insects migration northward, as extreme cold is generally able to control the insect population.

[Jesse]

Starting to look like we could get a pretty significant marine push tomorrow.

[ShawniganLake]

Starting to look like we could get a pretty significant marine push tomorrow.

Boaters be prepared.

[Jesse]

12z GFS shows a warm up starting in about a week, but doesn't show a long term hot pattern building in. Alternating ridges and troughs in the LR.

[TT-SEA]

Boaters be prepared.

 

 

Looks like more of an organized system rather than a traditional marine push.   Winds are quite light through tomorrow per the 12Z WRF.

[Jesse]

Boaters be prepared.

 

Could be some boat stress out there.

[TT-SEA]

Could be some boat stress out there.

 

Going to be on the boat this afternoon... looks lovely.  

[Deweydog]

I gots everybody cussing these days!

 

Another good sign for winter...

[Phil]

Pine beetle? There is something like 40 million acres infected in B.C. dead pine trees as far as the eye can see. Part of the reason the fire seasons have been so bad up here. Of course the warming climate is believed to be contributing to the insects migration northward, as extreme cold is generally able to control the insect population.

Interesting how the effects of climate change differ between the east and the west. Out here it’s been a warming and moistening, which has benefited trees in large part (as opposed to the LIA, when we were rapidly losing dozens of long-established Holocene species to cold, arid conditions and introduced pathogens).

[Jesse]

Interesting how the effects of climate change differ between the east and the west. Out here it’s been a warming and moistening, which has benefited trees in large part (as opposed to the LIA, when we were rapidly losing dozens of long-established Holocene species to cold, arid conditions and introduced pathogens).

 

Climate change? You mean the descent into a little ice age redux starting in a few years +/- 75?

[Phil]

We've been able to pretty much rule out insect, since that would be obvious for reasons you mentioned. Unknown pathogen is possible if not probable. Whatever it is it seems to become more effective at causing spotty crown death or outright killing the whole tree when summers are hot and dry.

Have you observed any small fruiting bodies or discoloration on the wood/foliage? Or abnormalities in the younger peripheral roots?

 

Obvious questions to ask, I know. Just curious.

[Jesse]

Have you observed any small fruiting bodies or discoloration on the wood/foliage? Or abnormalities in the younger peripheral roots?

 

Obvious questions to ask, I know. Just curious.

Not that I know of. Number one early identification symptom is the new year’s growth having much smaller than normal leaves in the crown, and producing many more seeds than usual. These “dwarf” leaves will often yellow throughout the summer, well before the tree would normally change color in the fall. Then the next year that branch or group of branches will be dead.

 

Sometimes it stops with several branches and the rest of the tree recovers, or at least the problem doesn’t progress. Other times the process continues for 3-4 years until the entire tree is dead.

 

There has also been a very similar die back pattern in cottonwoods and alders starting the last couple years. Have to think heat and drought are playing some role, since that is the common factor these unrelated species are experiencing.

[ShawniganLake]

Definitely an uptick in the ensemble mean for early next week on the 12Z ensemble. Much warmer than we’ve seen in awhile.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

70F in downtown Springfield.  Another beautiful day.

[Deweydog]

Definitely an uptick in the ensemble mean for early next week on the 12Z ensemble. Much warmer than we’ve seen in awhile.

I was wondering why we hadn’t seen that map yet...

[ShawniganLake]

How bout that Wimbledon final.