PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wherever we are now... it looks like summer on the ground.   Lush green and even from this height you can tell the trees are all fully leafed out.  

Found you!

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Absolutely. There were several pretty significant heatwaves, but they were distinct, not just one big 2-3 month heatwave like we saw the past couple summers. We've had so many mind blowing heatwaves, even really crazy ones like August 2016 are completely forgotten. 

I remember being pretty salty about that one since it messed up a pretty good stretch of relative summer coolness. PDX even pulled off a -0.1F that July, and that was with the 1981-2010 averages. The first ten days of August had been wet at times as well.

All in all though it worked out. Wr ended up having a very decent September that year, a mild but historically wet October, warm November, then of course an extremely solid winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil and I would kill for that summer. 80% of the country was pretty cool, despite the PNW generally roasting.

How bout that October! Amirite!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I remember being pretty salty about that one since it messed up a pretty good stretch of relative summer coolness. PDX even pulled off a -0.1F that July, and that was with the 1981-2010 averages. The first ten days of August had been wet at times as well.

All in all though it worked out. Wr ended up having a very decent September that year, a mild but historically wet October, warm November, then of course an extremely solid winter.

Yeah we certainly could do worse than 2016 ended up, very warm June and August though. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah we certainly could do worse than 2016 ended up, very warm June and August though. 

Yup. My summer standards are basically through the basement right now after the last two.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wherever we are now, as you post a map with your exact location. lol

Well... I think it's pretty vague.  Just gives a general idea.   I often look at towns on the ground and then try to figure out where they are by roads and landmarks.   Our country has an amazing amount of open land still.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... I think it's pretty vague.  Just gives a general idea.   I often look at towns on the ground and then try to figure out where they are by roads and landmarks.   Our country has an amazing amount of open land still.  

That's why Ezra Klein thinks we should try to grow our population to one billion. I think he was the DORK who wrote a book about it recently. Could be thinking of some other liberal guy with bad ideas. 

Edited April 18, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I can't think of any year I have experienced here that is a good analog from an observed weather standpoint locally. Especially when looking at it from an ENSO perspective. 2008 might be a somewhat decent match, though there was a big warm spell in April that year before the big cold trough. 

It’s been a hybrid of 2002 and 2012 here. Which is interesting because those are the two most recent years at the tail end of a heavy multiyear -ENSO regime (with lingering -NPMM).

On the large scale I concur there aren’t many good analogs for the present system state, and there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where this year will end up both in terms of ENSO and ET circulation. Only thing that seems clear is this +ENSO emergence is more similar to those that occurred in the pre-1998 era, and possibly more similar to those of the previous cold phase/before the satellite era. Whether that continues to be the case, is still TBD.

[GHweatherChris]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

This year has been hell so far. Please forgive my b*tching.

I have a feeling next spring will be a major reversal from the past couple of years. F/M/A following El Niño can be very warm/ridgy in the West.

Your bitching should only be posted here...

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It’s been a hybrid of 2002 and 2012 here. Which is interesting because those are the two most recent years at the tail end of a heavy multiyear -ENSO regime (with lingering -NPMM).

On the large scale I concur there aren’t many good analogs for the present system state, and there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where this year will end up both in terms of ENSO and ET circulation. Only thing that seems clear is this +ENSO emergence is more similar to those that occurred in the pre-1998 era, and possibly more similar to those of the previous cold phase/before the satellite era. Whether that continues to be the case, is still TBD.

There is a decent chance we see a dud this winter, but I don't think it is a given. 2002-03 and 57-58 were legendarily lame winters here, and I know you have brought them up a few times. I can't help but think about 1972-73 or 09-10. Also 82-83'. 

Any thoughts on 1952-53? 

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Even though we had the mega heatwave in late July, many aspects of that summer would be pretty tolerable by recent standards.

The July soaker with a 65 degree high at PDX  on 7/12/09 is unlike anything we have seen recently. Then a nice snap back to some highs in the 60s the first week of August after the big heatwave, and another decent soaking the second week of August as well. August 2009 was actually BELOW AVERAGE looking at 1991-2020 norms.

That was the last bonafide cool summer here. Amazing thunderstorm year too, I remember TWC had a thunderstorm icon almost every day in July 2009. Nonstop fronts and shortwave troughs. Followed by the best winter in mid-Atlantic history.

Ugh I wish I had appreciated it more at the time.

[FroYoBro]

Up to 46 degrees with a few brief sun breaks. Could be some fun showers later this afternoon moving in. 

[TT-SEA]

Geography quiz for anyone who is bored... what is this river?   I have no idea.  Lots of curves.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

That was the last bonafide cool summer here. Amazing thunderstorm year too, I remember TWC had a thunderstorm icon almost every day in July 2009. Nonstop fronts and shortwave troughs. Followed by the best winter in mid-Atlantic history.

Ugh I wish I had appreciated it more at the time.

I remember that summer being very consistently cool east of the Rockies and being petty jealous about it. I don’t think we’ve seen a summer that anomalously cool around here since the 1990s.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Geography quiz for anyone who is bored... what is this river?   I have no idea.

Cumberland River?

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is a decent chance we see a dud this winter, but I don't think it is a given. 2002-03 and 57-58 were legendarily lame winters here, and I know you have brought them up a few times. I can't help but think about 1972-73 or 09-10. Also 82-83'. 

Any thoughts on 1952-53? 

I haven’t looked at 1952/53. Usually don’t go back that far, I only stumbled on 1957 coincidentally (2 separate occasions was looking back for completely unrelated reasons and just happened to notice the homogeneities, which surprised me).

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Cumberland River?

I think it's this river... east of Nashville.    Also didn't know TN has a McMinnville. 

[Deweydog]

That’s Cleveland off to your right, Timofey.

[Omegaraptor]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's why Ezra Klein thinks we should try to grow our population to one billion. I think he was the DORK who wrote a book about it recently. Could be thinking of some other liberal guy with bad ideas. 

80% of Nevada is federally owned land. They could use some Bitcoin cities!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56409924

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think it's this river... east of Nashville.    Also didn't know TN has a McMinnville. 

That whole thing is called Center Hill Lake from the looks of it.

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s been a hybrid of 2002 and 2012 here. Which is interesting because those are the two most recent years at the tail end of a heavy multiyear -ENSO regime (with lingering -NPMM).

On the large scale I concur there aren’t many good analogs for the present system state, and there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where this year will end up both in terms of ENSO and ET circulation. Only thing that seems clear is this +ENSO emergence is more similar to those that occurred in the pre-1998 era, and possibly more similar to those of the previous cold phase/before the satellite era. Whether that continues to be the case, is still TBD.

2002 and 2013 are probably closest here. Although this year has been easily colder than 2002.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Geography quiz for anyone who is bored... what is this river?   I have no idea.  Lots of curves.

That looks like an oxbow lake, but there are many of them all across the SE US. Wouldn’t know which one without doing an extensive google earth searcj.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was blessed enough to be living in Bartlesville, OK in the winter of 2009-10.

Minimum 3-Month Mean Avg Temperature 
for BARTLESVILLE MUNICIPAL AP, OK

Rank, Value, EndingDate, MissingDays
1, 30.6, 1979-02-28, 0
2, 31.1, 1978-02-28, 0
3, 32.6, 2014-02-28, 0
4, 32.8, 2010-02-28, 0
5, 33.0, 2001-02-28, 1
6, 34.6, 2011-02-28, 0
7, 34.8, 1949-02-28, 2
8, 35.0, 2021-02-28, 1
9, 35.4, 1973-02-28, 0
10, 35.4, 1985-02-28, 4

Period of record: 1920-01-01 to 2023-04-17

[Front Ranger]

Since there has been a lot of talk here recently about the recent spate of record warm months at PDX and SLE, figured it was time for an update on the regional station comparisons.*

Going back 10 years, number of record warm months...

BLI: 8 

SEA: 8

OLM: 4

PDX: 8

SLE: 7

EUG: 5

Not surprisingly, the two least UHI-afflicted stations (despite being nowhere near each other) have seen about half as many record warm months as most the others.

PDX was also the only station in the region that had three consecutive record warm months last year, making it a clear outlier.

*this post is not intended to disprove recent warmth that has been very real and widespread across the region (especially in the warm season), but instead provide a broader perspective on that warmth

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That’s Cleveland off to your right, Timofey.

Looking left... north.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Since there has been a lot of talk here recently about the recent spate of record warm months at PDX and SLE, figured it was time for an update on the regional station comparisons.*

Going back 10 years, number of record warm months...

BLI: 8 

SEA: 8

OLM: 4

PDX: 8

SLE: 7

EUG: 5

Not surprisingly, the two least UHI-afflicted stations (despite being nowhere near each other) have seen about half as many record warm months as most the others.

PDX was also the only station in the region that had three consecutive record warm months last year, making it a clear outlier.

*this post is not intended to disprove recent warmth that has been very real and widespread across the region (especially in the warm season), but instead provide a broader perspective on that warmth

Station of the Gods

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

2002 and 2013 are probably closest here. Although this year has been easily colder than 2002.

Interesting you have the 2002 similarities as well.

As for 2013, that was like the perfect reverse of this year imby. Persistently cool and wet/stormy through the entire spring. Ah, the good ‘ole days.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That’s Cleveland off to your right, Timofey.

Would be able to see the home of the Masters if we were on the side of the plane.  

[GHweatherChris]

37 degrees and rain/snow mix currently, decent flakes as well!!  

[TT-SEA]

Sneaky little thunderstorm set up at the very end of the 12Z ECMWF. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Would be able to see the home of the Masters if we were on the side of the plane.  

Given the history of that course and state they definitely need to rename that tournament. 

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil and I would kill for that summer. 80% of the country was pretty cool, despite the PNW generally roasting.

Best summer followed immediately by the best winter of my lifetime (to date, at least). Feel like it’s a sin to even mention that year as an analog.

Not sure what it was about the 2008 and 2009 summer patterns, but the thunderstorms that summer had the most incredible lightning barrages. Like, super-close CTG strike followed immediately by another, and another, and another, each within 1-2 seconds of the other. Haven’t seen anything like that since.

[DareDuck]

1 hour ago, ML Loather said:

Even if I post stuff related to PNW weather, @DareDuck still gives me troll and no spam reactions, just because I'm from California.

Looks like it's been a fun spring up there so far after a Seattle-style winter down in So Cal. Maybe there will be some snow in May. I wonder how much easier the cold PDO makes it to snow.

So sensitive. 

[Phil]

2023 doing its very best to annihilate my passion for weather.

12z ECMWF is a royal kick to the jewels.

[TT-SEA]

See a fire to the north... and sky is sort of smokey.     This pattern has been way too persistent for everyone.   Nature needs to switch it up more everywhere.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Very end of the Euro looks fun.  

Looks like the long range GEFS also supports the idea of a more crash pattern to end the ridge, compared to the op.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like it could be a wet afternoon. Up to 38 and partly sunny at the moment. 

[TT-SEA]

CHS.    Sorry for lens smudge. 

[MossMan]

Interesting…My light sensor just started working again after 2 years. 

[TT-SEA]

No complaints about the 12Z EPS for the last weekend of April.