ENSO 2023

[Stormy]

20 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

There's that westward shift in the Niño I've been looking for! Should be actually underway right now.

Add all these things together and trim off the extreme solutions on either end of the spectrum and I think it spells a nice winter on the way. 

It's August 1, I can talk about winter now. I think we're all over summer finally.

Not me! I mostly love summers, and this one was very pleasant for the most part so far. The main problem I don't like is there are lengthy dry spells in recent summers including right now. I like fall and spring, but wish I could skip winter. Lol But if there wouldn't be winter here we'd know something is screwed up and seriously wrong, which we don't want either. 

[Black Hole]

5 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

As a general guess, the strongest Modoki was 2009 and it peaked at moderate. Don't know of any really strong events that didn't really bleed over into the full-latitude category.

I used to know where the reconstruction sst maps were and could be generated, but I don't anymore.

It looks like NDJ peaked at +1.6C for that winter. We could be in that neighborhood this year. 

[westMJim]

14 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Do you know offhand our strongest Modoki event on record?

The information that I have found is that there were Modoki El Nino events in.

El Niño "Modoki" events occurred in 199192, 1994–95, 2002–03, 2004–05, and 200910. The El Nino Modoki was named to represent the phenomenon in 2004 that had a maximum SST anomaly in the central tropical Pacific, differing from the conventional El Nino.

Of the above events 1991/92 was strong. 1994/95 and 2002/03 were moderate and 2004/05 was weak. Not sure if there was a Mokoke event since 2004/05 or not. But 2006/07, 2014/15 and 2018/19 were weak. 2009/10 was moderate and 2015/16 was strong.

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

[Black Hole]

A friend of mine in the NWS who has published papers on climate stuff (i.e. Should know what he is talking about) gave me this as a best guess for the "next water year" average height anomaly pattern. This would be a good winter pattern as we wouldn't get completely flooded with Pacific air. 

[Black Hole]

He also said that the weather pattern this year so far might be giving some hints into the general pattern we will settle into for the next water year as well. It wouldn't be exactly this, but you might be able to see some similarities with the other map I just added. 

[Tom]

My mind was on the same tune this morning after I looked at the 0z GEFS 500mb height anomalies as I ponder on the idea "Is Nature showing signs?"  Aleutian Low, -NAO/-AO/-EPO...Hello!

[westMJim]

For what it is worth

Ryan Hall’s first winter prediction:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqFwo4g_X7g

[OKwx2k4]

8 hours ago, Black Hole said:

A friend of mine in the NWS who has published papers on climate stuff (i.e. Should know what he is talking about) gave me this as a best guess for the "next water year" average height anomaly pattern. This would be a good winter pattern as we wouldn't get completely flooded with Pacific air. 

Man, if you take 2019 and 2006 away, wow.

Tom wrote on the rest of it well. I don't really mind there being a ridge occasionally over the Aleutians in Autumn, (per this map) but the fears come if by October, that thing doesn't budge. 

Thankfully, the SST alignment doesn't truly, in my opinion, support massive ridging into DJF. 

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

My mind was on the same tune this morning after I looked at the 0z GEFS 500mb height anomalies as I ponder on the idea "Is Nature showing signs?"  Aleutian Low, -NAO/-AO/-EPO...Hello!

If the forum wants to watch the perfect pattern to cool our continent, there it is. I just am scared we'll see it too early. Need that 1.2 Niño region to collapse along with this silly ridge to retrograde.

[OKwx2k4]

15 hours ago, Stormy said:

Not me! I mostly love summers, and this one was very pleasant for the most part so far. The main problem I don't like is there are lengthy dry spells in recent summers including right now. I like fall and spring, but wish I could skip winter. Lol But if there wouldn't be winter here we'd know something is screwed up and seriously wrong, which we don't want. 

The lengthy dry spells are a byproduct of being in LA Niña for the last 3 years. Less heat to atmosphere in general means less water vapor transport to us. 

I believe if Colorado hadn't had its wettest period on record going into this warm season, northern/central parts of our region would be desperately struggling right now with very little help from the cold waters in the eastern Pacific (off Cali and the SW US) blocking the Niño input. Our Summer in a lot of places would be a lot different today.

[Stormy]

2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

The lengthy dry spells are a byproduct of being in LA Niña for the last 3 years. Less heat to atmosphere in general means less water vapor transport to us. 

I believe if Colorado hadn't had its wettest period on record going into this warm season, northern/central parts of our region would be desperately struggling right now with very little help from the cold waters in the eastern Pacific (off Cali and the SW US) blocking the Niño input. Our Summer in a lot of places would be a lot different today.

I totally agree with the first paragraph, and the second paragraph I don't know or understand enough about to share my thoughts. 

[OKwx2k4]

10 hours ago, Stormy said:

I totally agree with the first paragraph, and the second paragraph I don't know or understand enough about to share my thoughts. 

Basically, my belief is that the excess evaporation and snowmelt seeded storms over the central US. It was like having a reservoir of water inland.

[Tom]

6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Basically, my belief is that the excess evaporation and snowmelt seeded storms over the central US. It was like having a reservoir of water inland.

My cousin was in Winter Park, CO last week and the north facing trails still had snow on them.  That is one place on my bucket list that I want to visit in CO...what a beautiful place.

[gimmesnow]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

My cousin was in Winter Park, CO last week and the north facing trails still had snow on them.  That is one place on my bucket list that I want to visit in CO...what a beautiful place.

Snowboarded there, it really is gorgeous. Fun place to snowboard and ski too, lots of moguls and trees though.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

Snowboarded there, it really is gorgeous. Fun place to snowboard and ski too, lots of moguls and trees though.

I read that it is known to be a good place to ride moguls, in fact, the US olympians trained on these trails back in the day.  They prob still do.

[gimmesnow]

22 hours ago, Tom said:

I read that it is known to be a good place to ride moguls, in fact, the US olympians trained on these trails back in the day.  They prob still do.

It is a lot of fun for sure. I'm really hoping this winter rocks, have big plans to drive around the country snowboarding. And I finished Ski Patrol training so I'm not stuck at Alpine Valley two or three days a week.

[Black Hole]

It doesn't look like anybody added this yet, but the latest ECMWF for winter is out. Feb in particular looks interesting for the south and east. 

[OKwx2k4]

12 hours ago, Black Hole said:

It doesn't look like anybody added this yet, but the latest ECMWF for winter is out. Feb in particular looks interesting for the south and east. 

That's beautiful.

[Tom]

This is a great sign to see model agreement at this range as the UKMET model is seeing a similar 500mb pattern over North America for the Autumn/Winter.  Boy, that W NAMER Ridge and HIGH LAT Blocking is quite intriguing to say the least!  #STJ...very evident...you guys down south will likely see a completely opposite weather pattern compared to what your experiencing right now.  

SEP-NOV....

 

 

OCT-DEC...

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

On 8/7/2023 at 6:46 AM, Tom said:

This is a great sign to see model agreement at this range as the UKMET model is seeing a similar 500mb pattern over North America for the Autumn/Winter.  Boy, that W NAMER Ridge and HIGH LAT Blocking is quite intriguing to say the least!  #STJ...very evident...you guys down south will likely see a completely opposite weather pattern compared to what your experiencing right now.  

SEP-NOV....

 

 

OCT-DEC...

 

 

 

Buddy, that's cold weather. Extremely cold. Like you said, exactly the opposite. Imagining that on into full winter months of  DJF and you have a full-scale memorable winter for the whole eastern 2/3 of the US.

[Andie]

The big question for Okla/Tx is do we see the deep 0 to -5* we had a few yrs ago?  

[Black Hole]

On 8/6/2023 at 8:41 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

That's beautiful.

Couldn't draw it up much better for us. That would be a big time snow pattern with just the perfect blend of cold air and enough moisture. 

[OKwx2k4]

12 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Couldn't draw it up much better for us. That would be a big time snow pattern with just the perfect blend of cold air and enough moisture. 

Right. It's the absolutely most perfect pattern.

[OKwx2k4]

The change I've spoken about in the Niño has officially begun in earnest. It appears 1.2 has topped out and begun its gradual step-down process, while 3.4 is holding stable. (2009 Analog for the win.)

Also, seeing the cold strip from Hawaii to Baja warm is a huge indicator for cold over the CONUS and a positive pdo signal developing. 

This should shift forcing back off towards the dateline and open the door for colder futures anywhere east of the Rockies with exception to the New England states. 

 

[OKwx2k4]

My only disappointment with my forecasting so far since spring is underestimating the heat/drought cycle severity in TX coming off a Niña. A mistake I hope to not overlook in the future.

[OKwx2k4]

Showing signs of stability in 3.4 with declines in 1.2. 

Beautiful.

 

[jaster220]

59 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Showing signs of stability in 3.4 with declines in 1.2. 

Beautiful.

 

Couldn't this "double peak" tho? Pretty sure I remember one where that's exactly how the winter became a dumpster fire in the Midwest. Was it 15-16 perhaps? Was looking promising, then it just re-surged at the last minute. Idk, maybe I'm loosing my memory. 

[OKwx2k4]

I'd advise against any new articles that scream super Niño without even stating a forecast number. 

Like some released today. There's no evidence anywhere to support a "super-Nino." None.

[OKwx2k4]

On 9/17/2023 at 7:21 PM, jaster220 said:

Couldn't this "double peak" tho? Pretty sure I remember one where that's exactly how the winter became a dumpster fire in the Midwest. Was it 15-16 perhaps? Was looking promising, then it just re-surged at the last minute. Idk, maybe I'm loosing my memory. 

I believe 15-16 was a super-Nino suckfest all the way from October up, but I was deceived by the water temp alignments off Mexico and the US west coast. They overrode some of Niño effects, but not all.

[OKwx2k4]

I saw recently from something that was posted last weekend by Joe Bastardi that we are, even in grip of Niño, at only +0.23C globally in terms of temperature anomalies. Nowhere close to a record. 

#FailNiño

 

[OKwx2k4]

Here's the numerical spread on Niño predictions for each model. There are some that are way stupidly too high. This would explain the forecast avg that I believe is too high. A lot of the models start at too high of a number to begin with. 

I removed some of the models so the averages could be better seen. (2nd Image)

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

If ENSO is poised for a surge, it is doing a poor job of displaying it.

If anything, looks to stabilize or decline. 

Not really a fan of the cooling in the GOA/NW coast of US. Would like to see that sudden reverse to warming. Would give hope for these ridging episodes to finally go away for a good while. 

[sumweatherdude]

On 10/1/2023 at 7:40 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

If ENSO is poised for a surge, it is doing a poor job of displaying it.

If anything, looks to stabilize or decline. 

Not really a fan of the cooling in the GOA/NW coast of US. Would like to see that sudden reverse to warming. Would give hope for these ridging episodes to finally go away for a good while. 

 

Region 3.4 has been stable overall for about a month with the warmth spreading west, and waning in the east.  1.2 and 3 are on the decline with 4 still rising.  The trends definitely don't support much more warming.  But this is far outside my sphere of knowledge.  We'll just have to wait and see.  Would love it if it's already peaked.

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Region 3.4 has been stable overall for about a month with the warmth spreading west, and waning in the east.  1.2 and 3 are on the decline with 4 still rising.  The trends definitely don't support much more warming.  But this is far outside my sphere of knowledge.  We'll just have to wait and see.  Would love it if it's already peaked.

The experts say peaking mid-winter as per usual. But I wouldn't mind if we were peeking at a peaking now either

[OKwx2k4]

On 10/3/2023 at 6:27 PM, jaster220 said:

The experts say peaking mid-winter as per usual. But I wouldn't mind if we were peeking at a peaking now either

I still hold that we will or are already seeing peak in 3.4. 1 is still higher, but at this time, the shift west has begun. Any additional gains in 3.4 are from this as it appears the subsurface is nearly depleted.

[OKwx2k4]

Really glad to see the warm spot forming out by the dateline. Would hope to see forcing follow it as we go through November. Beautiful.

 

 

[Hoosier]

fwiw, the prelim ONI reading for Aug/Sep/Oct came in at 1.5

[jaster220]

On 11/3/2023 at 5:15 PM, Hoosier said:

fwiw, the prelim ONI reading for Aug/Sep/Oct came in at 1.5

I don't really track ENSO. Was that higher or lower than expected/forecasted?

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I don't really track ENSO. Was that higher or lower than expected/forecasted?

That's a little tough to answer because there are various forecasting tools when it comes to ENSO.  So it depends on what you're looking at. 

But based on ONI, this Nino is heading into strong territory at this time.  As others have pointed out, there are other measures like the MEI or RONI that show it as a more subdued Nino.  I'm not sure that we will reach the unofficial "super" Nino status that is generally regarded as ONI reaching 2.0 (I'd lean against an ONI of 2.0 at this point), but even if we do, the peak will be lower than years like 1997-98 and 2015-16 and the forcing farther west.  Obviously it would be wise to not expect the world from this Nino in our region, but that doesn't mean it has to be terrible wall-to-wall.  Those big Ninos in 1998 and 2016 did produce some good storms in our region, namely 3/9/98 and 2/24/16, so hopefully we can pull off a big storm even if the winter overall isn't good.

[Black Hole]

What is the RONI anyway? Not sure I've seen that one defined. 
 

[Black Hole]

There is a decent Kelvin Wave and some westerly wind anomaly over the western Nino regions now. This may produce one last bump but I think that is it. 

[Hoosier]

43 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

What is the RONI anyway? Not sure I've seen that one defined. 
 

Relative ONI.  Basically, you subtract the average SST from the ONI.  The ASO RONI value came in at 1.05.  You can get the RONI values here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

More about the RONI:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe9ed

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That's a little tough to answer because there are various forecasting tools when it comes to ENSO.  So it depends on what you're looking at. 

But based on ONI, this Nino is heading into strong territory at this time.  As others have pointed out, there are other measures like the MEI or RONI that show it as a more subdued Nino.  I'm not sure that we will reach the unofficial "super" Nino status that is generally regarded as ONI reaching 2.0 (I'd lean against an ONI of 2.0 at this point), but even if we do, the peak will be lower than years like 1997-98 and 2015-16 and the forcing farther west.  Obviously it would be wise to not expect the world from this Nino in our region, but that doesn't mean it has to be terrible wall-to-wall.  Those big Ninos in 1998 and 2016 did produce some good storms in our region, namely 3/9/98 and 2/24/16, so hopefully we can pull off a big storm even if the winter overall isn't good.

I enjoyed both of those!  Thanks for the breakdown and reminder that even in the stronger category, we CAN get something exciting. Throw in 09-10 as a wildcard analog strong Nino and it's certainly worth staying tuned. 

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I enjoyed both of those!  Thanks for the breakdown and reminder that even in the stronger category, we CAN get something exciting. Throw in 09-10 as a wildcard analog strong Nino and it's certainly worth staying tuned. 

Not saying this Nino is like 2015-16, but I'm approaching this winter with the same type of mindset as I did then.  Assume that it won't be a great winter for prolonged snowcover retention (and be pleasantly surprised if it is), but enjoy any good stretches while they occur and hope for a good storm or two.  2015-16 had 3 significant storms imby... 11/22/15, the epic sleet fest of 12/28/15, and 2/24/16.  Since my expectations were low in 2015-16, I came out of that feeling fairly satisfied even though the final total on paper was pretty unremarkable.

[Black Hole]

16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Relative ONI.  Basically, you subtract the average SST from the ONI.  The ASO RONI value came in at 1.05.  You can get the RONI values here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

More about the RONI:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe9ed

Good stuff. Yes, this makes perfect sense that CC is creating an artificial +ENSO signal and something like what they do in that paper is necessary to deal with it. 

[sumweatherdude]

Cool animation of the 2009-2010 El Nino.  To me, it doesn't really look like this year's.  But I don't know much about this stuff. 

El Nino Animation

[sumweatherdude]

 

[jaster220]

From APX's winter forecast (ofc they're just running with the "strong Nino incoming" mantra). I found this interesting:

Figuring those AN temps just HAD to be bad news for your winter outcome, right??

Wrong. Gaylord with "only" 162 inches on the season:

The gradient between Grayling and Gaylord is a mere 6 FEET of snow on the season. Krazy

 

 

[jaster220]

Another interesting map from that forecast. This shows how the stronger Ninos really increase the odds for AN snowfall in the S Plains region. There is also a small signal across the northern portion of mid-Michigan area that is slightly AN odds for good snowfall.

 

I will give them kudos for a nice list of "CYA" caveats:

 

[Clinton]

From Terry Swails blog last night.

Another factor that I feel will play a significant factor in our "winter overall" is the cooling of the El Niño waters near the coast of South America. While sea surface temperatures have dropped off there, they have warmed in the enso region 3.4 to the west. That implies to me that we are headed for a Modoki El Niño, which is not the typical run-of-the-mild blow torch version. It does give me hope that this winter will have its moments of cold and snow. So far, that is a positive trend that we seem to be moving towards. Time will tell. That's all for now. Roll weather...TS