2023 - 2024 Autumn & Winter Discussions

[Clinton]

There are more signs of below average temps showing up for weeks 2 and 3 of March and snow for the north and western members of the sub.  The JMA has been consistently taking the MJO into phase 3 but with no support from the other models until now the GEFS, CFSv2, and CMET have joined in and the Euro is slowly adjusting that way.

The EPS starting to take on a snowy look for some in the extended and this mornings GFS has quite the storm around the 9th which would line up with the LRC as a very wet storm should move across the sub in that time frame.

5th -9th

GEFS this morning.  Winter probably has 1 last gasp

 

[Clinton]

Here is where this winter ranks so far and it's depressing especially for the northern half of the country.

2023 warmest ever on record

[gimmesnow]

Starting to think maybe these resorts down here aren't so crazy to keep blowing snow when they can in this weather. Maybe they can make it past the first week of March and still get two more weeks. I know they usually have a goal of being open until St Patrick's Day weekend.

[Tom]

The Great Lakes region takes the cake for having the Warmest Winters on Record....except for Chicago, that placed at #3, the majority of the region topped out at #1.  Congrats!  You lived through it...now its time to turn the page and focus on Spring and the warm season.  I'm pretty sure all will agree on one thing, this El Nino Winter was a very odd season.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

At least this winter didn't end up in the top tier where I'm at. I even ended up with a cooler January than last year.

But none of these last few winters had more than a couple weeks worth of actual winter.

[gimmesnow]

This winter was unbelievable bad for winter sports. The last few winters we still managed to pull of regular length seasons. From a ski/snowboard season that normally goes from late november to the third week in march, we didn't really get started until after new year's, and places barely made it to the start of March. Cascade wasn't fully open until mid January, two to three weeks later than normal, and they are closing three weeks earlier than normal. I still managed to make the best of it, and have one last trip planned, maybe two. I made the most of it but still, pretty terrible. I sure hope next winter is better.

[Beltrami Island]

On 3/4/2024 at 4:04 PM, gimmesnow said:

This winter was unbelievable bad for winter sports. The last few winters we still managed to pull of regular length seasons. From a ski/snowboard season that normally goes from late november to the third week in march, we didn't really get started until after new year's, and places barely made it to the start of March. Cascade wasn't fully open until mid January, two to three weeks later than normal, and they are closing three weeks earlier than normal. I still managed to make the best of it, and have one last trip planned, maybe two. I made the most of it but still, pretty terrible. I sure hope next winter is better.

Had to laugh at this... Accurate for the whole of this winter

[Tom]

I think its time to put this Winter Thread to rest....time to wave good bye to this Winter Season...

[Up_north_MI]

Just curious if anyone remembers any of the “professional” long range forecasts from this past Fall that called for anything close to what we just had the past 3 months? If so could you please list them here so I know who’s forecast to actually pay attention to this coming Fall, thanks. 

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

Just curious if anyone remembers any of the “professional” long range forecasts from this past Fall that called for anything close to what we just had the past 3 months? If so could you please list them here so I know who’s forecast to actually pay attention to this coming Fall, thanks. 

 Iirc, The Weather Channel had a rather warm GL’s and Midwest region and BN precip.  NOAA also did a good job.  Many professional Mets thought FEB would be much colder but that didn’t happen.

[Clinton]

Not a winter to remember. 

@NWSKansasCity

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It didn't matter if you were in Kansas City or anywhere else in the lower 48 states...Winter was hard to find. This meteorological Winter (Dec-Feb) was the warmest on record for the contiguous U.S. of the 130-years on record and was 5.4 degrees above normal

[Tom]

Interesting article from AccuWx regarding how much of an economical tragedy this winter was for the Northern U.S...BUT....there are Signs of Hope for Next Winter...

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/wickedly-warm-winter-cost-businesses-8-billion-in-losses-in-the-northern-plains/1642115

[Hoosier]

On 11/16/2023 at 1:33 PM, Hoosier said:

Here's my final winter call for Chicago (ORD)...

Temps (only DJF):  0 to +1

Snowfall (total):  28-35"

Bonus prediction:  2 to 5 days below zero

Been waiting a while to grade this just in case more snow fell, but at this point it looks very unlikely that Chicago will receive any additional measurable snow.

Overall, this outlook was not good.  Actual temperature departure for DJF was +6.8 degrees, which is well above my range.  22.2" of snow occurred, which is below my range.  There were 3 days below zero, which is right in range and the best aspect of this forecast by far.

Overall, all things considered, I'd probably give this like a D+ at best.  As said, nailed the number of below zero days, but the things that people tend to care about most are the temperature departures and snowfall amounts, and it was a pretty bad bust in that regard.  In seasonal outlooks, there is an argument that being on the right side of a departure deserves some credit, even if the value is off.  I agree with that to some extent, but a temp departure of +6.8 is so far above my upper range of +1 that I really just can't give any credit for that.  There is a big difference between how a +1 winter feels compared to a +6.8 winter.  The snowfall forecast was not quite as bad imo.  Although snowfall came in under my values, the overall tenor of the season was reflected fairly well in that it was less snowy than average.  

As far as what went wrong, I definitely put too much stock into the strong Ninos of the past.  Those tended to not be all out torches (except the super Ninos).  Also, it seems like we actually may have had too much forcing too far west in the Nino regions.  

Little quirky thing... if the 22.2" of snow holds, it will only be the second time on record that Chicago's snowfall amount has all of the same numbers.  The only other time it happened was when 44.4" fell in 1893-94.