2023 - 2024 Autumn & Winter Discussions

[Tom]

It's that time of year again when our group of weather enthusiasts begin to start thinking about the cooler months ahead as we are fast approaching the beginning of met Autumn.  I have been waiting on the JMA seasonal to come in and it did so last night.  Let me just say, this would be the 3rd or 4th global model that continues to suggest a lot of high lat blocking up in the Arctic regions and over N.A. next month thru NOV.  Let's dive in...

 

SEP...

 

Temp/Precip...starting to look very similar to the CFSv2...I see you!

 

 

 

 

OCT...This is a pretty map in so many different ways...where do you begin?  -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO....great start to the LRC!

 

 

The STJ appears to be priming up this month...the wet signal in So Cal/AZ is a very nice signal along with practically the entire eastern CONUS.

 

 

NOV...as the -NAO grows and expands, so does the NE PAC Ridge (-EPO) signal...what a beauty of a trough slamming into the 4 corners/CALI region.  If this evolves as suggested, this is going to be a hellova southern stream jet!

 

 

Temp/Precip...the entire Nation is literally covered with AN precip chances and practically no big signal for AN Temps except for some parts of the southern Tier of the U.S. hugging the warm ocean waters of the GOM and near Baja/So Cal.

 

 

 

 

So, there you are, some brief insight to what the JMA seasonal has in store over the next 3 months.  What will mother nature decide to do?    While these maps are fun to look as I ponder on the ideas of what the coming colder months could deliver, let's enjoy the warm days of summer as they will be numbered once we step into SEP.  I think many of our members on here are waiting for that flip!  @Andie 

 

[Black Hole]

We are going back into hot and humid weather for the next week as a west coast trough pins the ridge across the central CONUS. I hope we can transition to that fall pattern sooner than later. Perhaps within a month or so. 

[OKwx2k4]

9 hours ago, Black Hole said:

We are going back into hot and humid weather for the next week as a west coast trough pins the ridge across the central CONUS. I hope we can transition to that fall pattern sooner than later. Perhaps within a month or so. 

While I do want to shift as fast as possible for personal reasons, the delay will be worth it if we love winter.

@TomGreat write-up. It does show a perfect, albeit slow change into what looks like an amazing autumn. Seeing a hurricane run the Baja peninsula in model-land is a huge tell as well. I love how by November it now has Niño moving west. That's critical as well.

[Andie]

9 hours ago, Black Hole said:

We are going back into hot and humid weather for the next week as a west coast trough pins the ridge across the central CONUS. I hope we can transition to that fall pattern sooner than later. Perhaps within a month or so. 

I’ll second that!

[Black Hole]

14 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

While I do want to shift as fast as possible for personal reasons, the delay will be worth it if we love winter.

@TomGreat write-up. It does show a perfect, albeit slow change into what looks like an amazing autumn. Seeing a hurricane run the Baja peninsula in model-land is a huge tell as well. I love how by November it now has Niño moving west. That's critical as well.

Can you elaborate on why we would want the delay? Presumably the better years are slower to cool off?

[OKwx2k4]

2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Can you elaborate on why we would want the delay?  better years are slower to cool off?

Yeah. A lot of times, evidence supports that early starts don't necessarily translate to more snow or winter events overall in El Niño. Exceptions being 2009 and 1976. In 1998s Niño, the Pacific raged and flooded the US with heat (same in 2016), but after Niño faded in spring, it was colder than average. In other words, when Niño faded in 1.2 and shifted forcing west, we cooled down. 

The reason I'm fine with the delay is that it appears to be well-timed. Let the Arctic and northern landmasses fill with cold first before we go dislodging too much of it and we'll see really good winter. 

[gimmesnow]

On 8/15/2023 at 7:36 AM, Black Hole said:

Can you elaborate on why we would want the delay? Presumably the better years are slower to cool off?

I don't have anything scientific for you, but the last 15 years of my winter loving the best winters have been when we've had a sudden, late shift from summer to fall/winter, and vice versa. Last year was an early start, I was so excited I rushed back and grabbed my snowmobile in November. Then I proceeded to have a winter so bad the lake never froze enough for me to ride around on it, let alone the trails being open.

[Tom]

JB's 1st take on the cold season ahead...

[OKwx2k4]

Pretty classic Niño look there.

[OKwx2k4]

19 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

I don't have anything scientific for you, but the last 15 years of my winter loving the best winters have been when we've had a sudden, late shift from summer to fall/winter, and vice versa. Last year was an early start, I was so excited I rushed back and grabbed my snowmobile in November. Then I proceeded to have a winter so bad the lake never froze enough for me to ride around on it, let alone the trails being open.

This right here. Perfectly said.

[Black Hole]

15 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Very detailed early write-up.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-2023-2024-season-early-look-polar-vortex-el-nino-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

 

Since it shows what I want to see I'm going with it lol

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Since it shows what I want to see I'm going with it lol

Lol. I like your style. Haha.

Thanks for sharing.

So I had a question for you. What are your thoughts, if any on hunga tonga volcano and its effects on our current weather, or winter. 

It's my opinion that these events this summer can be ascribed to long-term Niña drought compounded by persistence or already favorable conditions. In other words, there was already a well known drought in place, it grew. It was pretty predictable by looking at a precip map. 

I guess I would just like an opinion outside of mine and all the vague writing on it that just gives no reason or science just says, "it's going to be warm, trust us." 

 

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Lol. I like your style. Haha.

Thanks for sharing.

So I had a question for you. What are your thoughts, if any on hunga tonga volcano and its effects on our current weather, or winter. 

It's my opinion that these events this summer can be ascribed to long-term Niña drought compounded by persistence or already favorable conditions. In other words, there was already a well known drought in place, it grew. It was pretty predictable by looking at a precip map. 

I guess I would just like an opinion outside of mine and all the vague writing on it that just gives no reason or science just says, "it's going to be warm, trust us." 

 

We know it released a ton of water vapor into the stratosphere and that has a known cooling effect on the stratosphere and a warming effect on the surface. I think it's one piece of several that led to this hot summer, including the strong el nino that is coming on, -PDO switching to positive PDO, and natural variability. I think you are correct in that sense that the drought from the la nina helped this heat dome to come into being. 

What is interesting to me is how humid its been this summer. I think the very warm gulf is part of that, aided by a few active periods of rain, and perhaps the deep snowpack in the Rockies too. Together, its been a formidable summer for heat and humidity. 

[OKwx2k4]

39 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

We know it released a ton of water vapor into the stratosphere and that has a known cooling effect on the stratosphere and a warming effect on the surface. I think it's one piece of several that led to this hot summer, including the strong el nino that is coming on, -PDO switching to positive PDO, and natural variability. I think you are correct in that sense that the drought from the la nina helped this heat dome to come into being. 

What is interesting to me is how humid its been this summer. I think the very warm gulf is part of that, aided by a few active periods of rain, and perhaps the deep snowpack in the Rockies too. Together, its been a formidable summer for heat and humidity. 

Then emee are actually in very much perfect agreement on all the other contributing factors. 

I was unsure about the expected effect on the stratosphere or other layers and how it would relate to the surface. I'm still learning a lot about how vertical mixing all the way throughout and how it affects longer-term cycles. Not necessarily overall climate.

You're right in that the ultra warm Gulf early in the season was a big part and absent tropical storms to aid in mass  heat transport from equator to pole, massive death ridge was the only out. Same with the high lat ridge over western Canada, I'd assume. When the tropics are suppressed that long, it has to go somewhere. 

If the Pacific can finish shuffling all its major weather features around quickly enough, it'll be the polar opposite around here in short-order.

I find it unusual that all the records we are contending with every day from now to September 7th or so are mostly 2000 (Mod/Strong Niña), 2010 (HUGE La Niña) or 2011 (super Niña lag year). It's why La Niña years keep coming up in my ideas. Even one of the big late-70s years that keeps showing up was a weak La Niña. Odd, but it's been on point for me so far. 

[Andie]

Southern Hemisphere’s No Winter Winter. 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-04/south-america-extreme-heat-mid-winter-climate-change-scientists/102678662

[gabel23]

Jim flowers part 1 winter forecast! Interesting hearing him talk about cyclical patterns with the SOI. 
 

https://fb.watch/mEVLERepVH/?mibextid=R5ymit
 

[Black Hole]

I spent some time this morning matching the forecasted pattern for the 1st half of September (with some nod to towards the EPS weeklies for the 2nd half) to try to get our current top El Nino analogues. Here is what I came up with and the analog forecast going through fall and winter. 

September:

 

October:

 

November:

 

December:

 

Jan-Feb:

 

So if this progression is right, September will be the last warm month for all of us, with October being a transition month, and then cold for the rest of the winter. This would no doubt be a very wet winter towards Florida, and near to below normal for the rest of us. However, its good for snow in the south. Probably a cool and dryish winter in the north. 

The analog matching didn't have any great matches, but the composite of the ok matches actually turned out pretty well. I guess we will see what happens. 

[CentralNebWeather]

42 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

I spent some time this morning matching the forecasted pattern for the 1st half of September (with some nod to towards the EPS weeklies for the 2nd half) to try to get our current top El Nino analogues. Here is what I came up with and the analog forecast going through fall and winter. 

September:

 

October:

 

November:

 

December:

 

Jan-Feb:

 

So if this progression is right, September will be the last warm month for all of us, with October being a transition month, and then cold for the rest of the winter. This would no doubt be a very wet winter towards Florida, and near to below normal for the rest of us. However, its good for snow in the south. Probably a cool and dryish winter in the north. 

The analog matching didn't have any great matches, but the composite of the ok matches actually turned out pretty well. I guess we will see what happens. 

Jim Flowers on Facebook has the best matching year for Nebraska as 1972-1973. Don’t know how that looks for other places. 
 

https://fb.watch/mHaLWKkLa2/?mibextid=v7YzmG

[OKwx2k4]

6 hours ago, Black Hole said:

I spent some time this morning matching the forecasted pattern for the 1st half of September (with some nod to towards the EPS weeklies for the 2nd half) to try to get our current top El Nino analogues. Here is what I came up with and the analog forecast going through fall and winter. 

September:

 

October:

 

November:

 

December:

 

Jan-Feb:

 

So if this progression is right, September will be the last warm month for all of us, with October being a transition month, and then cold for the rest of the winter. This would no doubt be a very wet winter towards Florida, and near to below normal for the rest of us. However, its good for snow in the south. Probably a cool and dryish winter in the north. 

The analog matching didn't have any great matches, but the composite of the ok matches actually turned out pretty well. I guess we will see what happens. 

That's a really cold winter and the perfect progression. 

Sometimes analogs don't exactly match month-to-month I have found, but the patterns and progressions work correctly. You just slide a month forward or backward. 

I've had the "opposite years" thing as well and believe that's due to coming from an overwhelmingly long Niña. When I'm seeing 2000, 2008, 2010 show up, it's weird. Lol. 

[Black Hole]

Pretty interesting seeing how closely the CFS run last night matched the analog progression I posted. 

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Pretty interesting seeing how closely the CFS run last night matched the analog progression I posted. 

Spot on. Absolutely spot on. Nothing to add to that. 

[OKwx2k4]

The funny question is why theirs doesn't match Tidbits CFS monthlies. Is there something I'm missing?

[Andie]

DFW Airport was one of the many locations that did not see rain on Sunday. The last measurable rainfall at DFW Airport was 0.32" on July 16. So far this month, only a trace of rain has been recorded and we're running over 9 inches below normal for annual rainfall. 

[Black Hole]

2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

The funny question is why theirs doesn't match Tidbits CFS monthlies. Is there something I'm missing?

I will have to look into that and see if I can figure anything out. 

[Andie]

On 8/27/2023 at 10:09 AM, Black Hole said:

I spent some time this morning matching the forecasted pattern for the 1st half of September (with some nod to towards the EPS weeklies for the 2nd half) to try to get our current top El Nino analogues. Here is what I came up with and the analog forecast going through fall and winter. 

September:

 

October:

 

November:

 

December:

 

Jan-Feb:

 

So if this progression is right, September will be the last warm month for all of us, with October being a transition month, and then cold for the rest of the winter. This would no doubt be a very wet winter towards Florida, and near to below normal for the rest of us. However, its good for snow in the south. Probably a cool and dryish winter in the north. 

The analog matching didn't have any great matches, but the composite of the ok matches actually turned out pretty well. I guess we will see what happens. 

This reminds me of the winter that Texas lost its power for a week.  While they say they’ve addressed this, it’s cold comfort considering our population boom from the west coast.
Demand will be high.   

[OKwx2k4]

If our Niño can flatline, it appears to have a shot at being classed as moderate, which is a great thing. 

For those who may not know, even if 1.2 is over +3°C, if 3.4 is +1.12°c it's that number we measure by.

Still giving me cause to toss the extreme Niño analogs. 

[gimmesnow]

On 8/27/2023 at 10:09 AM, Black Hole said:

I spent some time this morning matching the forecasted pattern for the 1st half of September (with some nod to towards the EPS weeklies for the 2nd half) to try to get our current top El Nino analogues. Here is what I came up with and the analog forecast going through fall and winter. 

September:

 

October:

 

November:

 

December:

 

Jan-Feb:

 

So if this progression is right, September will be the last warm month for all of us, with October being a transition month, and then cold for the rest of the winter. This would no doubt be a very wet winter towards Florida, and near to below normal for the rest of us. However, its good for snow in the south. Probably a cool and dryish winter in the north. 

The analog matching didn't have any great matches, but the composite of the ok matches actually turned out pretty well. I guess we will see what happens. 

Ill be very happy if it just stays cold and we get solid man made snow with some natural snow that hangs around. So much freeze thaw lately, lake didn't even freeze enough for me to snowmobile on last year.

[Hoosier]

12 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

If our Niño can flatline, it appears to have a shot at being classed as moderate, which is a great thing. 

For those who may not know, even if 1.2 is over +3°C, if 3.4 is +1.12°c it's that number we measure by.

Still giving me cause to toss the extreme Niño analogs. 

I don't think there's a prayer that this Nino ends up as only moderate based on ONI.  Now the bigger questions, assuming a strong Nino, are does it act more like a moderate Nino, how is the forcing distributed, how quickly does it start to fade, etc. 

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I don't think there's a prayer that this Nino ends up as only moderate based on ONI.  Now the bigger questions, assuming a strong Nino, are does it act more like a moderate Nino, how is the forcing distributed, how quickly does it start to fade, etc. 

I still use the original standard as measured in 3.4. Keeps things consistent. To each their own I guess.

If ONI has a strong Niño, I wouldn't know it. 

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I still use the original standard as measured in 3.4. Keeps things consistent. To each their own I guess.

If ONI has a strong Niño, I wouldn't know it. 

That chart you posted is the ONI chart, which does use region 3.4 for the measurements.  So looks like we're all good.  

Most people would classify anything above 1.5C a strong Nino.  Based on the trends and modeling, I don't think we're going to be able to keep that number below 1.5

 

[OKwx2k4]

13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That chart you posted is the ONI chart, which does use region 3.4 for the measurements.  So looks like we're all good.  

Most people would classify anything above 1.5C a strong Nino.  Based on the trends and modeling, I don't think we're going to be able to keep that number below 1.5

 

We'll see. I don't think it has a lot of strengthening to do as an east-based. I think we'll see 1.2 start collapsing any day now. I think it'll yield a moderate Modoki by time all is said and done. Some folks use SOI or another way of measuring 3.4, which is why I stated that. 

Like 2009, some call it moderate, others call it strong. Technically, it was strong by number for only one month. 

[Clinton]

Some thoughts and analogs from T-Swails on El Nino and the good ole Farmers Almanac once again predicting a return to the ice age for about 80 percent of the country lol.

Well, as much as I would love to see a big snowy winter around here, I am far from convinced that will be the case. The primary reason is that El Nino is coming on hard and that typically means a split flow with the polar jet to the north keeping much of the cold bottled up to the north. The sub tropical jet with all the storminess is active but often produces the wettest weather to the south and east of the Midwest. We can get some heavy precipitation events from time to time but the trick is getting enough cold air in place to see snow instead of rain. That involves some phasing of the two storm tracks and as I mentioned that's not easy to do with the split flow that commonly results.

 

 

I did check the latest trends from NCEP and they indicate a 95% chance of El Nino conditions through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2023-24.

 

 

Not only that, during its peak November-January, the El Nino is expected to be strong with Nino 3.4 anomalies at or greater than 1.5 degrees C.

 

 

The only way I see this winter coming remotely close to what the Farmer's Almanac shows is if we get the strongest sea surface anomalies to position themselves in 3.4, (over the central Pacific away from the coast of South America).

 

 

That sort of set-up (known as a Modoki El Nino), would allow some cold air intrusions and the phasing mentioned above for snow systems. How that evolves is anybody's guess At least for now, the warmest SST departures are closer to the coast of South America which portends a relatively mild winter.

 

 

As I mentioned, the prognosis is for the El Nino to be strong during the winter months. The NWS in La Crosse, Wisconsin has done extensive research on temperature, precipitation, and snowfall patterns around the Midwest during strong enso events such as this since 1900. The verdict was that winter temperatures averaged near to above normal. 4 of Iowa's warmest winters occurred during strong El Ninos.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While there is a strong signal for warmth during strong El Ninos, precipitation can be highly variable across the region. Iowa saw their 2nd driest winter (1.28" in 1930-31), along with their 10th wettest winter (4.79" in 1972-73).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While seasonal snowfall tends to average below normal in the Midwest during strong El Niños, at least a third of them have produced above normal snowfall.

 

 

Something else I've noticed is that late October and November can be cold and usually have above normal snowfall. However, by Christmas the El Nino has kicked in resulting in warmer than average temperatures thereafter. I look for some version of that this year.

It's still early and there are other factors to consider so I'm still a bit on the fence regarding the final outcome, but my hunch is that this winter ends up warmer than normal with precipitation being the wild card. Traditionally, the sub-tropical jet and its storm track is displaced far enough south to keep the heavier precipitation from reaching the Midwest. That would lead to below normal amounts and most likely below normal snowfall.

There is a caveat though and that is climate change and warm sea surface temperatures throughout the globe that have increased water vapor. The analogs of 10-30 years ago aren't as reliable as they used to be. There are more extremes and the puzzle is more complex. For example, last winter the strong La Nina would argue for dry winter over the southwest. Instead, it was one of the wettest with flooding rains and record snow in the mountains of California. The overall winter defied long standing expectations there. Who's to say that couldn't happen this year over the Midwest. I'm not expecting it but I've seen some crazy unlikely weather events the past 5 years. As the saying goes, time will tell.

Meanwhile, here's what the Farmer's Almanac had for last winter. It was about as far off the mark as could be expected except in the NW and NC U.S. where North Dakota, Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin took it on the chin with both cold and snow.

 

 

[Tom]

The Farmers Almanac is dated last years Winter...

[Clinton]

36 minutes ago, Tom said:

The Farmers Almanac is dated last years Winter...

Thanks i fixed it.

[Black Hole]

We still need to wait 2 days to see the new seasonal ECMWF, but the CANSIPS still really shifts the big warm anomalies west over the next couple of months with a textbook modoki setup for much of winter. While nobody knows for sure, I still think this favors a cooler winter for many of us, especially JFM. 

[gimmesnow]

The Old Almanac and Almanac have been doing long range forecasts for over 200 years. They don't have models and all this other stuff, they do it with completely different tools they keep secret. Both almanacs are saying cold and stormy for most of us.  Old Almanac is going all in. I guess we'll see, meteorologists seem to think winter won't be that good but the Farmers are all over cold and snow.

[OKwx2k4]

7 hours ago, Black Hole said:

We still need to wait 2 days to see the new seasonal ECMWF, but the CANSIPS still really shifts the big warm anomalies west over the next couple of months with a textbook modoki setup for much of winter. While nobody knows for sure, I still think this favors a cooler winter for many of us, especially JFM. 

This right here. Beautiful. Been waiting on this. I'm good with being warm for a bit. I'm still betting on cold. 

This is not a classic, canonical strong Niño. I just don't see it going the 1983 or 1997 route.

[Andie]

As usual, I’m on the line.  
No one ever commits to No Tx.

[mlgamer]

7 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

The Old Almanac and Almanac have been doing long range forecasts for over 200 years. They don't have models and all this other stuff, they do it with completely different tools they keep secret. Both almanacs are saying cold and stormy for most of us.  Old Almanac is going all in. I guess we'll see, meteorologists seem to think winter won't be that good but the Farmers are all over cold and snow.

I thought this image was a meme when I first saw it. Is this for real? 

 

[OKwx2k4]

If the Euro depicted in this article verifies, going to be winter here in November. 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-seasonal-models-snowfall-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

It's showing above avg snowfall for every month Nov-Jan.