2023 - 2024 Autumn & Winter Discussions

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

Here is the MEI table since 1979. Our AS value finally reached weak el nino status. This year is nothing like 15/16, 97/98 or 82/83 at this point (other "strong" ninos). Its actually a pretty good match to 09/10 or 02/03 by this metric. 

Yes. When I was writing earlier in the year in another post this was what I was referring to and I couldn't think to call it the right term. Lol. 

This is why I've been telling folks there was so much more to this than met the eye and a spot check of temperatures is not really how you measure things. You use the same standard that was always used. You don't change it to make news about nothing. It's a coupled system and you have to use and observe it all the same. 

It's also becoming known that major enso + episodes work against the mjo in 8/1 during the peak of winter. 8/1 are cold phases over N. America. 

It's growing apparent by that chart as well that we are actually entering a long-term cool phase if we look at the 80s-90s vs 2000s to today. 

The chart starts right after the PAC climate shift ended in 1979.

[Black Hole]

44 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Yes. When I was writing earlier in the year in another post this was what I was referring to and I couldn't think to call it the right term. Lol. 

This is why I've been telling folks there was so much more to this than met the eye and a spot check of temperatures is not really how you measure things. You use the same standard that was always used. You don't change it to make news about nothing. It's a coupled system and you have to use and observe it all the same. 

It's also becoming known that major enso + episodes work against the mjo in 8/1 during the peak of winter. 8/1 are cold phases over N. America. 

It's growing apparent by that chart as well that we are actually entering a long-term cool phase if we look at the 80s-90s vs 2000s to today. 

The chart starts right after the PAC climate shift ended in 1979.

This is good stuff. Couldn't have put it better myself. 

[Black Hole]

And I think its worth adding that the MEI is in most cases a stable metric, except sometimes in the ramp up or wind down phases. But look up the list for AS, and in most cases the atmosphere has "made up its mind" by this point. There are no cases where we had values as low as we have now and ended up more than 1.3 to 1.6 during the winter months. 

The biggest change I can find for the winter is 09/10 which went from 0.4 now to 1.3 during the winter. and 91/92 which went from 0.7 to 1.6 (eventually higher in the spring). Considering the other close parallels with 09/10 I think that is a good guide for the eventual MEI, probably toping out 1.3 to 1.5 (i.e. borderline moderate/strong) el nino but definitely not a super nino. 

[Hoosier]

There's an unusually large difference between the MEI and the ONI.  The JAS ONI came in at 1.3 and seems all but destined to approach 2.0 for the ultimate peak in the next couple months or so.  The significantly lower MEI warrants some caution when it comes to winter outlooks and would suggest not just doing a rip read of past strong Nino events when formulating winter outlooks.

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, Niko said:

2015-16 , 2018-2019.

I believe these were very strong Nino's and also perhaps so powerful that they were record Nino's.

Ironically, both of those were AN snow fall winters in Marshall. 15-16 was the Mega-Nino, but the effects were delayed until winter 16-17 which still managed to score avg snowfall, helped immensely by a huge December. If you took away Dec's near 28 inches, it would have been all-time BN.  I don't think 18-19 was a strong Nino.

The true "dud" Nino winters for SMI: 82-83, 97-98, 86-87 SEMI add 91-92 

@Black Hole This graphic illustrates your post above:

[Black Hole]

Scanning twitter and some other weather forums this morning, I found a few nuggets worth passing along. 

1.) Wind anomalies in the tropics coming up support continued -IOD and flat or slight easterly anomalies in nino 1+2 should help to get the Modoki mode going. 

 

2.) This chart compares the AMO to the PDO. You can really see how this Nino is like no other in a lot of ways. It's the exact opposite of what normally happens.

 

3.) This map shows the temperatures for a patch of water west of Nino 4 that some believe affects our weather. It's changed quite a bit from last year so the thought was that there might be less tendency for ridging in the SE this year. 

 

4.) The current forecast is apparently reflecting the anomalous combo of extreme negative PDO and moderate to strong el nino together. The next three charts show typical El Nino and La Nina ( for the negative PDO) forcing. Elements of both are shown together. This will also continue to result in unusual height anomaly patterns for the near future. 

 

Anyway, I hope some of this stuff I found was useful. 

 

 

[jaster220]

All the Modoki Nino's have been "meh" here in recent years. This gives me hope for a better outcome:

[Niko]

On 10/6/2023 at 8:30 PM, jaster220 said:

Ironically, both of those were AN snow fall winters in Marshall. 15-16 was the Mega-Nino, but the effects were delayed until winter 16-17 which still managed to score avg snowfall, helped immensely by a huge December. If you took away Dec's near 28 inches, it would have been all-time BN.  I don't think 18-19 was a strong Nino.

The true "dud" Nino winters for SMI: 82-83, 97-98, 86-87 SEMI add 91-92 

@Black Hole This graphic illustrates your post above:

I forget to add in winter 2011-12. That has had to be the worst ever. Least amount of snowfall and very mild temps. I remember it was my first autumn/winter season here in S MI coming from NYC and thinking to myself, "Am I in the right city or am I down south." It was so mild, I could not believe it. Of course, all hell broke loose later in 2013-14 when record snowfall and cold was recorded.

Not sure if that year was a Nino year...or was it not?? 

[jaster220]

On 10/8/2023 at 4:12 PM, Niko said:

I forget to add in winter 2011-12. That has had to be the worst ever. Least amount of snowfall and very mild temps. I remember it was my first autumn/winter season here in S MI coming from NYC and thinking to myself, "Am I in the right city or am I down south." It was so mild, I could not believe it. Of course, all hell broke loose later in 2013-14 when record snowfall and cold was recorded.

Not sure if that year was a Nino year...or was it not?? 

NOT.

Iirc, it was a La Nina and certainly by most/any/all standards was considered an abysmal snow season for almost the entire Midwest. (see image)

Normally a Nina is favorable for moisture with temps being the questionable item. That season also came at the end of an unprecedented four straight AN snowfall winters. So, the law of averages trumped the Nina and we got that forgettable season. 08/09/10/11 were all notable if not historic winters so your timing was "late to the party" so to speak. 07-08 was awesome for Detroit. 08-09 was the best of the 4 in Marshall with just shy of 100" hitting mby (99.5"). 

Ironically, 11-12 wasn't terrible to all of SWMI. I actually saw 41% LESS snow here in Canton last winter (3rd BN winter for me) than I got in 11-12. 

[Stormy]

On 10/4/2023 at 12:33 PM, Niko said:

So, if its not by skill, then why are they working there at NOAA. They should have been fired already, right? They must be doing something right. Anyway, I think they are going w a very strong El Nino, which, I can see why they posted those maps, but again, like you said, they could be incorrect. Time will tell. Overall, It looks like this winter will be a real complicated one, especially for the folks living up to the north.

Nobody knows what the weather will be like next winter including anyone on here, but it's still fun to guess and dream about and look at maps. I don't pay much attention to any forecast beyond a few weeks to a month! 

[gimmesnow]

The wive's tale about acorns, if it's true, this winter is going to be nuts. Worked with my landscape buddy, think we moved 6 yards of acorns yesterday, cleaning them up and hauling them away. He says it hasn't been like that in years.

[Tom]

Well, hello there Mr. UKIE...it's a beautiful Day when the good ol' UKMET continues to hold strong on the idea of High Lat blocking and a strong signal for an active STJ for literally the entire cold season of NOV-MAR!  Incredible.  Looking into the data more deeply, I'm seeing a Big signal for a strong Scandinavian High early in the season which is a complementary pattern to disrupt the Polar Vortex.  

Look at the pressure pattern below from NOV-JAN...

 

 

The 500mb pattern from NOV - FEB...Lock it in???  Yes....Please!

Precip pattern...

 

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

Well, hello there Mr. UKIE...it's a beautiful Day when the good ol' UKMET continues to hold strong on the idea of High Lat blocking and a strong signal for an active STJ for literally the entire cold season of NOV-MAR!  Incredible.  Looking into the data more deeply, I'm seeing a Big signal for a strong Scandinavian High early in the season which is a complementary pattern to disrupt the Polar Vortex.  

Look at the pressure pattern below from NOV-JAN...

 

 

The 500mb pattern from NOV - FEB...Lock it in???  Yes....Please!

Precip pattern...

 

@Tom

That's certainly stokeworthy, but is it extra-stokeworthy? Meaning, have you found the Ukmet to be better than other globals at "calling the winter" in the seasonal dept? Or is it just one more puzzle piece pointing in that direction?

[Tom]

19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom

That's certainly stokeworthy, but is it extra-stokeworthy? Meaning, have you found the Ukmet to be better than other globals at "calling the winter" in the seasonal dept? Or is it just one more puzzle piece pointing in that direction?

I do, in fact, the years where we had the La Nina patterns it was one of the only models that predicted accurately that the eastern CONUS was going to have a non winter.  Thinking back, it predicted 2 Nina winters in a row for the west & Upper MW to be colder and snowier than normal.  Overall, I like this model in the LR for seasonal forecasting.

Here is the link and you can go back all the way to SEP 2009...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

[jaster220]

23 minutes ago, Tom said:

I do, in fact, the years where we had the La Nina patterns it was one of the only models that predicted accurately that the eastern CONUS was going to have a non winter.  Thinking back, it predicted 2 Nina winters in a row for the west & Upper MW to be colder and snowier than normal.  Overall, I like this model in the LR for seasonal forecasting.

Here is the link and you can go back all the way to SEP 2009...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Thanks for the great news! Now, this little storm heading my way (if in winter) would be exactly the kind of W to E slider that would indeed share the wealth between ORD and DTW just like GHD-2. It even intensifies slightly over here just like that did. And yes, the Ninas were a let-down for the most part, doing the unusual NW trend. As to what @Clinton was showing, I would really welcome an early winter this year after the last 4 seasons have been BN and the last front-loaded was 2017-18 which delivered a huge DEC here in far SEMI. 

Edit - Should add that the last noteworthy Oct storm that bode well for the winter here was in 2007. I mean, we got the deformation band with the stiff NE winds. One in 2012 meant zilch for the following winter. 

[jaster220]

On 10/10/2023 at 7:49 AM, gimmesnow said:

The wive's tale about acorns, if it's true, this winter is going to be nuts. Worked with my landscape buddy, think we moved 6 yards of acorns yesterday, cleaning them up and hauling them away. He says it hasn't been like that in years.

"False Apple" trees are just over-flowing with fruit as well. 

[westMJim]

We are now deep enough into October when in the past there have been some years when Grand Rapids had its first measurable snow fall. Here are some of the years of those early snow falls that occurred during  October 12 thru the 20^th Note that since 1950 several of the years of early October snow falls were El Nino years.

October 12 2006: A record early season snowstorm brings up to eight inches of snow to southwest Lower Michigan. Tree damage and power outages were extensive around Hastings in Barry County as the wet, heavy snow clings to the tree branches, which still had leaves on them.  Some snow fall amounts were Hastings 6.5”, Lowell 4.0” Grand Rapids 2.1” Lansing 1.5” On the east side of the state Flint had 2.3” Saginaw had 0.3” and Detroit had 0.2”   That winter was a weak El Nino. The winter had a mean of 27.0° there was a season total of 83.3” of snow fall. February was the coldest and snowiest month with a mean of 18.3° and 33.6” of snow fall.

October 16, 1943: A snowstorm drops an inch or two of slushy snow across southwest Lower Michigan. The high temperature at Grand Rapids and Lansing is only 39 degrees.  While the history write up says 1 or 2 inches most locations is SW Michigan only had a trace of snow on that date. Lansing did have 1.7” There are reports that winter was a strong La Nina winter. The meteorological winter mean at Grand Rapids that winter was 27.2. the total snowfall was just 35.7” with March not only cold 29.8 but had the most snowfall at 16.3”.

October 17, 1952: After a frosty morning with lows in the 20s, snowflakes fly across western Lower Michigan. An inch of snow accumulates at Muskegon.  There is no reported snow at Grand Rapids, Lansing reported a trace. The winter was a weak El Nino  The meteorological winter  mean was 29.0° there was just 39.7” of snow fall.

2002: Cold weather arrives across western Lower Michigan with high temperatures only around 40 degrees and periods of wet snow mixing in with cold rain. There was only a trace of snow fall that day. The meteorological winter was a Moderate El Nino. It was a cold (25.9 mean) and snowy 88.0” winter.

October 18, 1972: It is an early taste of winter as a snowstorm hits Lower Michigan. The storm drops 4.6 inches of snow at Muskegon, the heaviest snow on record for so early in the season there. That day Grand Rapids has 0.9” of snow fall. There was just a trace at Lansing. The meteorological winter mean was 25.5 there was a total of 65.5” of snow fall it was a strong El Nino

October 19. 1989: Four to five inches of snow falls across Lower Michigan as a record early season snowfall causes power outages and travel delays.  Just 4 days after having back to back days with highs of 80. Grand Rapids had 4.5” of snow on the night of the 19^th and another 1.3” after midnight for a storm total of 5.8”. Lansing had 3.9” Muskegon had 4.1” Hastings had 4.7” I was working 3^rd shift at the time and there was also a lot of thunder and lightning with that snow even. The   meteorological winter had a mean temperature of 25.7° that winter with December being just 17.1° and that is the coldest December at Grand Rapids December also had 25.2” of snow and February had 23.8” Even May has 0.02” that fell on May 10^th 1990. The winter season had 89.8”and it was a weak El Nino winter.

October 20, 1992: One to three inches of snow blankets southwest Lower Michigan at the culmination of three days of wintry weather with lows around 30 degrees and highs in the lower 40s. After the cold summer of 1992 that October had a early snow fall when on the 20^th 2.2” fell at Grand Rapids, 1.2” at Lansing and 1.2” at Hastings. That winter the meteorological winter mean at Grand Rapids was 25.4°  March 1993 was also cold with a mean of 30.9 The winter season had 65.3” of snow fall. That winter was neutral.

Of the winters that had some of the earliest first snow falls in west Michigan, most of them were El Nino winters.

[jaster220]

12 hours ago, westMJim said:

Of the winters that had some of the earliest first snow falls in west Michigan, most of them were El Nino winters.

Great post!  I expected to see 1997 in your list, but that was on the 27th and it looks like your cut-off was the 20th. I was stuck traveling south through WMI (was moving to S. Bend) and it got real bad south of GR. Kalamazoo had at least 8" and a ton of downed tree branches due to the snow sticking on all the leaves.  Also a Mega-Nino winter!

[Stormy]

9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Great post!  I expected to see 1997 in your list, but that was on the 27th and it looks like your cut-off was the 20th. I was stuck traveling south through WMI (was moving to S. Bend) and it got real bad south of GR. Kalamazoo had at least 8" and a ton of downed tree branches due to the snow sticking on all the leaves. 

I think at least 6" of snow fell here on 10/27/'97.

[gimmesnow]

I am very ready to start snowboarding.

[Black Hole]

Here is the latest zonal wind anomalies and forecast for the equatorial regions. Lots of westerly wind anomalies should help to keep the nino strength up in the next little bit...especially nino 4. Interesting to see the raging strong +IOD signal as well. 

[Black Hole]

Here are the observed anomalies to start out October. This worked out pretty well for what the model forecast had been showing to kick the month off. 

Here is how models see the rest of the month going. It's similar enough that the monthly average won't change too much, but you can see the strongest blocking over north-central Canada breaks down with negative anomalies beginning to develop. Meanwhile, we can see stronger ridging near Alaska and stronger troughing south of there. That lines up well with the "analog" forecast for October, just a bit further west.  

If we look at the forecast snapshot for the end of the month the signal is more clear. A complete reversal of the pattern we've been seeing across Canada and Alaska. This probably shifts the mean trough signal to the western US for this period, but the pattern is still progressive so it wouldn't mean we totally get shut off. 

ECMWF weeklies show a diffuse signal in the mid Nov time frame as troughs and ridges cycle through the area with generally higher heights near the Pole and lower across the oceans. 

 

 

[Black Hole]

I should note too that the pattern for the end of the month should increase the PDO over time. 

[Niko]

Typical Nino Pattern. Looks reasonable for my neck of the woods, but with this map however, I disagree w/ areas to the south (especially from @Clinton place point southward and to all of the NE corridors up and down showing AN temps. It should show BN temps as all of these areas will be in for a harsh winter w lots of storminess, especially up the EC. Anyway you look at it, (even areas that stay AN all winter) will be in for some real wild swings from time to time and somewhere in between, will get a snowstorm or 2, maybe 3, if we are lucky that will be meaningful, but temps overall (especially here in mby) will stay be AN. We will see how all of this plays out, but one thing is for sure, this map definitely needs to be changed for a lot of the south to BN temps, if not, well BN.. TWC makes its usual typical forecast and then adjusts everything last second.

 

[Black Hole]

Here is the current SST anomalies and changes in the last week. Signs of the -PDO weakening, El nino moving west, and the strengthening -IO all continue. 

[Tom]

The latest and greatest JMA seasonal came out and it's not backing down on a legit chance that DEC will start off Met Winter into a bonafide season of giving?  When you compare the 500mb pattern the UKIE from my previous post, they look a hellova lot like Winter will be in full force over the U.S.A.  

Take a gander at the immense high lat blocking (esp Scandinavia), NW NAMER and Greenland.  One can only imagine what this type of pattern can deliver.

 

 

Temp/Precip...if that red paint bomb over eastern Canada is going to happen, you can bet that it'll be a colder pattern to the south.  Not much AN temps across the U.S. for the most part, except for the GL's region which I suspect the model is seeing so much ridging to the north that it is showing warm anomalies.  #STJ looks pretty darn impressive...not to mention, but what about that Aleutian Low???  So much to say, so little time this morning...if your asking what about JAN???  Well, let's just say it mirrors something of the late 70's!  BRRRR!!!  I'll post the 500mb map for your perusal...

 

 

 

 

The JMA welcomes the start of 2024 in a way that many on here would remember....

[Andie]

Sounds like Texas is going to have another deep winter.  Hope the power holds out! 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

The latest and greatest JMA seasonal came out and it's not backing down on a legit chance that DEC will start off Met Winter into a bonafide season of giving?  When you compare the 500mb pattern the UKIE from my previous post, they look a hellova lot like Winter will be in full force over the U.S.A.  

Take a gander at the immense high lat blocking (esp Scandinavia), NW NAMER and Greenland.  One can only imagine what this type of pattern can deliver.

 

 

Temp/Precip...if that red paint bomb over eastern Canada is going to happen, you can bet that it'll be a colder pattern to the south.  Not much AN temps across the U.S. for the most part, except for the GL's region which I suspect the model is seeing so much ridging to the north that it is showing warm anomalies.  #STJ looks pretty darn impressive...not to mention, but what about that Aleutian Low???  So much to say, so little time this morning...if your asking what about JAN???  Well, let's just say it mirrors something of the late 70's!  BRRRR!!!  I'll post the 500mb map for your perusal...

 

 

 

 

The JMA welcomes the start of 2024 in a way that many on here would remember....

Nino December scares me, especially the ones more recently.  Hoping for a good December in this area but am going to keep expectations in check.  Would at least be nice to go cold/snowy in time for the holidays.  

[Tom]

48 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nino December scares me, especially the ones more recently.  Hoping for a good December in this area but am going to keep expectations in check.  Would at least be nice to go cold/snowy in time for the holidays.  

As they say, timing is everything!  I hope you guys can somehow balance out the cold towards the 2nd half of the month...

[Clinton]

Lots of comparisons with this upcoming winter to the winter of 2014 from several respected meteorologist and members on here so I did a little digging.  Nov 2014 was very cold in Missouri and frustratingly dry.  KC finished the winter of 2014, 2015 with 14,2 inches of snow about 4 inches below average.  There was some bad luck that winter as the KC area was the victim of dry slots on multiple occasions.  Here's a couple links I found interesting.

 http://climate.missouri.edu/news/arc/dec2014.php

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–15_North_American_winter

 

[jaster220]

On 10/17/2023 at 12:55 PM, Hoosier said:

Nino December scares me, especially the ones more recently.  Hoping for a good December in this area but am going to keep expectations in check.  Would at least be nice to go cold/snowy in time for the holidays.  

DEC '05 was rockin' - but Jan 06 uggh! Dec '97 was boomin' - but then 98 hit - uggh! You got others??

[jaster220]

38 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Lots of comparisons with this upcoming winter to the winter of 2014 from several respected meteorologist and members on here so I did a little digging.  Nov 2014 was very cold in Missouri and frustratingly dry.  KC finished the winter of 2014, 2015 with 14,2 inches of snow about 4 inches below average.  There was some bad luck that winter as the KC area was the victim of dry slots on multiple occasions.  Here's a couple links I found interesting.

 http://climate.missouri.edu/news/arc/dec2014.php

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–15_North_American_winter

 

Why I could easily vote for another 14-15. Biggest storm in 40 yrs for this region.

And somehow I missed this back then:

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Why I could easily vote for another 14-15. Biggest storm in 40 yrs for this region.

And somehow I missed this back then:

Oh no!  Well if something like that happens this year be home lol.

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Oh no!  Well if something like that happens this year be home lol.

I just checked DTW records, and not only did they have that top-5 storm here, they had nearly 10 straight weeks of snowcover with peak depths in Feb of 18" and in Mar it was 13". That was actually a very good winter here by far SEMI standards. I wonder why @Stacsh isn't here complaining about the lack of LES already?

[Clinton]

14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I just checked DTW records, and not only did they have that top-5 storm here, they had nearly 10 straight weeks of snowcover with peak depths in Feb of 18" and in Mar it was 13". That was actually a very good winter here by far SEMI standards. I wonder why @Stacsh isn't here complaining about the lack of LES already?

It had a lot of potential here but this map says it all.  Was it bad luck or just KC being KC?

http://climate.missouri.edu/images/2014decf.gif

 

[Tom]

On 10/17/2023 at 7:48 AM, Andie said:

Sounds like Texas is going to have another deep winter.  Hope the power holds out! 

The past 4-5 winters have been largely Above Normal temp wise with the exception of a few months that were extremes.  For example, FEB '21 and '22...with that being said, can you imagine stacking up 2 months of extremes for Texas??  Say, JAN-FEB...and if it goes into MAR...lookout Andie!  Could be something memorable for you guys down south.

 

[Tom]

11 hours ago, Clinton said:

Oh no!  Well if something like that happens this year be home lol.

My best friend has an AirBnb in Osage Beach, MO from 12/3 - 2/3 and he has openly invited me to come down...I've got a feeling that I'll prob be going to visit him!  

[Andie]

Oh my heavens!!!  
Drag out the heavy coat and boots.  
With moisture we’ll be skating to work!

The moisture is welcomed, however…

[tStacsh]

13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I just checked DTW records, and not only did they have that top-5 storm here, they had nearly 10 straight weeks of snowcover with peak depths in Feb of 18" and in Mar it was 13". That was actually a very good winter here by far SEMI standards. I wonder why @Stacsh isn't here complaining about the lack of LES already?

Unless the pattern really does change from the last several months, I'm not keen on much LES this year.  NW N and NNE predominant winds will provide my area with nothing but cold to mild and dry.   I need those arctic clippers with a cold W to WSW wind.    It would be nice to see the sun in the winter months though!

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

My best friend has an AirBnb in Osage Beach, MO from 12/3 - 2/3 and he has openly invited me to come down...I've got a feeling that I'll prob be going to visit him!  

Let me know I'll meet up with ya.  That's only about 1 1/2 hours from my place.