2023 - 2024 Autumn & Winter Discussions

[Tom]

I love what I'm seeing off the latest JMA weeklies as they are mirroring the CFSv2 weeklies pointing towards a trough into the Baja/4 corners/So Cal to close out SEP and open OCT.  As @hawkstwelvepointed out in our SEP thread, it has been bone dry over much of the ag belt region and we certainly need to start seeing the moisture.  Well, it appears there is more optimistic data suggesting a reversal in the precip pattern during the 2nd half of SEP and into the early stages of the LRC.  I'm pretty confident that the southern jet will start to come alive and early Snows will target the 4 corners region.  We are already seeing evidence from nature that Winter has come a bit early this season for the mountains in the west.  

Week 2...look at that beauty of a 500mb pattern...wet signal is a solid look for the central CONUS...

 

Courtesy of @hawkstwelve...

 

Week 2 AN precip pattern is literally right on top of the dry areas....

 

Week 3-4....

 

The AN precip signal continues over the same areas.  It's like nature "flipped the script"...

 

 

 

The CFSv2 is lock step similar to JMA...Block over the Top of an active #STJ...Ya'll ready???

 

[Madtown]

Obviously long range is not an exact science and many times doesn't do what it supposed to. All I've been hearing is El nino....If we take off our snow loving glasses, is it possible this winter is a massive bust, or are there enough other factors that may make it ok. Just hard to get excited for winter with El Nino in the cards.

[mlgamer]

I'd settle for rain all winter with no snow if that's what it would take to get some moisture here. The cracks in the ground around the area are among the biggest I've ever seen. Soil has been pulling away from foundations, sidewalks, and driveways all summer so it's been lots of watering. Most yards are pretty much brown except for those being watered. Hope a change comes soon.

[Niko]

Not sure of what to think of about this upcoming winter. I do know that in an El Nino pattern, the EC does very good w heavy snows (w potential blizzards). We will see what happens, but I fear it might be a frigid, dry winter for the lower lakes. Time will tell.

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, Niko said:

Not sure of what to think of about this upcoming winter. I do know that in an El Nino pattern, the EC does very good w heavy snows (w potential blizzards). We will see what happens, but I fear it might be a frigid, dry winter for the lower lakes. Time will tell.

Hey Niko! 

Hope your summer has been good. Not too hot was it? With the Nino, you should have a horse in the race whether it's on the EC, here (who knows?), or both like 09-10. 

[jaster220]

On 9/8/2023 at 1:12 PM, mlgamer said:

I'd settle for rain all winter with no snow if that's what it would take to get some moisture here. The cracks in the ground around the area are among the biggest I've ever seen. Soil has been pulling away from foundations, sidewalks, and driveways all summer so it's been lots of watering. Most yards are pretty much brown except for those being watered. Hope a change comes soon.

Opposite here. You could not find a patch of brown anything, even if it was worth a $1M to your bank account. It's the greenest summer (since the spring dry period) that I can remember. And I get around my state a lot. Not a single region have I seen a noticeable dry look. There may be some that I've just missed ofc but overall this has been a "green summer". 

[Niko]

15 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hey Niko! 

Hope your summer has been good. Not too hot was it? With the Nino, you should have a horse in the race whether it's on the EC, here (who knows?), or both like 09-10. 

Hey Jaster.....it was great, hope yrs was as well.

Here are some pics for ya, enjoy:

Description of pics 1-7

1.) Name of Beach called "Batsi"

2.) Delicious brunch right after a swim (temps hovering in the low 100s at the time)

3.) My Greek coffee (relaxing part of the day)

4.) Taking the ferry to go from Athens (also known as "Rafina Port"  where all boats dock) to Andros Island. Trip is 1.5hrs.

5.) View from my house.

6.) More phenomenal food in the shade after being on the beach most of the day.

7.) Greek church named after my name..Saint Nicholas.

 

I also went to Los Angeles in June prior to leaving for Greece to celebrate my nieces graduation from UCLA. Now she is in Berkley's Law School in San Fransisco. We have a big dog lawyer on the way in 3 years. Oh yeah, she will be my lawyer for sure  

I also made a stop in NYC on the way to Greece and stayed there for 3 days and then left from JFK.

 

 

 

 

 

[Andie]

On 9/8/2023 at 12:12 PM, mlgamer said:

I'd settle for rain all winter with no snow if that's what it would take to get some moisture here. The cracks in the ground around the area are among the biggest I've ever seen. Soil has been pulling away from foundations, sidewalks, and driveways all summer so it's been lots of watering. Most yards are pretty much brown except for those being watered. Hope a change comes soon.

I’m feeling bad for our Kansas and Midwest brothers.  This has been brutal on residents and farmers have endured a tragic season. 
I’m hoping the Niño will bring the moisture we need this Fall so that when it freezes it doesn’t dry kill half the country.  

[Clinton]

Gotta take it with a grain of salt but the 12z GFS is darn chilly toward the end of the run.  Flakes for @Madtown maybe and mid 40s for lows all the way down to KC. Strong taste of fall possibly for much of the forum. 

[jaster220]

Why not?

[OKwx2k4]

On 9/8/2023 at 9:47 AM, Madtown said:

Obviously long range is not an exact science and many times doesn't do what it supposed to. All I've been hearing is El nino....If we take off our snow loving glasses, is it possible this winter is a massive bust, or are there enough other factors that may make it ok. Just hard to get excited for winter with El Nino in the cards.

This is a non-canonical, non- major Niño. It's evolution to west based is underway and its decline has begun. 

Most typical standard El Niño forecasts are based on 2 events. 1997-98 and 2015-16. This is none of that.

Typical Major Niño events peak in January, we get flooded with Pacific air til March and suffer through a cold spring. 

This event peaking 1.3c in Sept/Oct is going to radically shift that progression forward.

I love snow, but wrong is wrong and right is still right. I've pretty well held my forecast since spring and called out my own flaws, so I'd believe that my biases are all in check.

You won't hear me forecast a "record winter", just the same as it was impossible to call the extremes we have witnessed this summer. I will say that in the southern and Eastern 2/3 of the country, we should see above average snow.

[Black Hole]

Thinking some more about our seasonal progression tonight. What else are you supposed to do when there is no weather and its 4am?

At any rate, here is what we saw for the first 10 days of the month:

Here is the pattern right now, lets call it the middle third of the month:

And here is the mid range pattern to close out September:  The final monthly map based on this forecast will probably keep the same general anomaly pattern as the first 10 days, with the exception that a lot of the Great Basin and southern Plains will either end up near neutral or slightly negative. I think this progression is still mostly in line with the analog forecast I dropped previously...at least enough to be useful anyway. 

Since we've previously talked about 09/10 as a top analog. Let's review what happened that year. Here is the Sep/Oct progression:

While some obvious differences are still noted, especially for the Great Basin, I still think this is a pretty good match. Getting back to our forecasted outlook and the tendency for troughing to emerge in the home stretch, I think we are seeing early el nino signs and perhaps a preview of the storm track this winter through the southern plains. It's still early, but things are changing! 

 

[OKwx2k4]

@Black Holedid a great job there. 

A blended and delayed 2009 is still my top analog and i'll be honest, I'm nervous at what that entails seeing as I absolutely know this progression to close September is a new pattern. It looks like an '09 and 2013 mashup if I had to do it from memory.

If 2013 would have had any at all imput from an energised southern branch or any real "phasers" at all, it would have made a very great winter into a legendary one. 

I want to add another factor that leads me to cold conclusions over warm and that is our retrogression coupled with the setup rolling through the Bering Sea along with the tri-pole of warm piols in perfect places up there. This tells me that the endless dumps of cool dry air into the Central Pacific are shutting down (responsible for Hawaii's drought). In fact, checking models right now, shows it. 

When that's closed off and you see low after low after low literally slamming the Aleutians, you can bet something impressive is on its way. 

[Tom]

I just saw the new JMA seasonal and its rather interesting....I'll try to post on it tomorrow morning...#STJ all the way!  The West Coast/SW trough is locked and loaded...high lat blocking is magnificent in OCT/NOV....then in DEC the NE PAC ridge fires up.  Not to mention, the warm pool shifts west each month and by DEC its near or west of ENSO 3.4.

[gimmesnow]

Wow another winter of all the snow going south to Chicago. Please don't verify. I was in a snow drought belt in between Chicago and Madison last year and it SUCKED HARD. Never rode my snowmobile ONCE.

[Tom]

Just thought I'd share with you the DEC maps...Split Flow all day!  In a perfect world, you'd like to see more blocking near Greenland but that ain't a bad first "look" into DEC.  I'll tell ya, its a hellova lot different than the past 3 or 4 years with massive SER's???  You can sorta see the model hinting at a NW Flow aloft funneling in cold air out of Canada.

 

 

 

 

Precip...

 

Lastly, the SST's...

[OKwx2k4]

A good look at today's enso probabilities. I like how it reflects the thoughts of an earlier peak (per ideas of Tom, Black Hole and myself) as well with what could be a target of November as max. 

Whether we cross and stay at the +1.5°C in 3.4 will just have to play out and see. 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Wow another winter of all the snow going south to Chicago. Please don't verify. I was in a snow drought belt in between Chicago and Madison last year and it SUCKED HARD. Never rode my snowmobile ONCE.

His vid, and especially that map mean NOTHING. Just have to wait it out IMO. What struck me in his vid the most was the set of Temp Anomaly maps for the various Nino's. All over the place really, but to be more correct he should have limited them to type/intensity similar to what is expected this coming winter. A few Nino's (even on the stronger side) have surprised Michigan with decent snow/storms. I'm very hesitant to sign onto any one solution at this point. 

[Niko]

On 9/13/2023 at 9:36 PM, jaster220 said:

Why not?

Good lord..look at what they think might happen on the EC. Storm explosions!!! Someone there in the big cities this winter will get walloped. This might be their winter. Time will tell.

[jaster220]

On 9/16/2023 at 9:16 AM, Niko said:

Good lord..look at what they think might happen on the EC. Storm explosions!!! Someone there in the big cities this winter will get walloped. This might be their winter. Time will tell.

Yep, I think you are golden this winter whether your old back yard in NYC gets slammed or we somehow end up with an atypical Nino winter and get in on the action as well. 

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Yep, I think you are golden this winter whether your old back yard in NYC gets slammed or we somehow end up with an atypical Nino winter and get in on the action as well. 

I can see SMI get in on the action as well. A big Dog or 2+ is definitely not outta the question. Jet stream this winter will be just south of us, which its the best solution for SMI peeps to get into hvy snows and will also be further south at times, which will benefit the EC. Not too many NW flows are looking likely. It gets very cold here and perhaps very snowy (typical Nino year) by February and into March.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Niko said:

I can see SMI get in on the action as well. A big Dog or 2+ is definitely not outta the question. Jet stream this winter will be just south of us, which its the best solution for SMI peeps to get into hvy snows and will also be further south at times, which will benefit the EC. Not too many NW flows are looking likely. It gets very cold here and perhaps very snowy (typical Nino year) by February and into March.

As long as it's not a strong Nino, which keeps the Arctic air bottled-up north and east, where storms riding the STJ can turn up the EC and pull it down east of the App's. Moderate Nino plus some favorable tele's could work for SEMI, as well as a weak Nino tho I don't think that's in the cards attm tbh.

[Anti Marine Layer]

On 9/14/2023 at 2:09 AM, Black Hole said:

Thinking some more about our seasonal progression tonight. What else are you supposed to do when there is no weather and its 4am?

At any rate, here is what we saw for the first 10 days of the month:

Here is the pattern right now, lets call it the middle third of the month:

And here is the mid range pattern to close out September:  The final monthly map based on this forecast will probably keep the same general anomaly pattern as the first 10 days, with the exception that a lot of the Great Basin and southern Plains will either end up near neutral or slightly negative. I think this progression is still mostly in line with the analog forecast I dropped previously...at least enough to be useful anyway. 

Since we've previously talked about 09/10 as a top analog. Let's review what happened that year. Here is the Sep/Oct progression:

While some obvious differences are still noted, especially for the Great Basin, I still think this is a pretty good match. Getting back to our forecasted outlook and the tendency for troughing to emerge in the home stretch, I think we are seeing early el nino signs and perhaps a preview of the storm track this winter through the southern plains. It's still early, but things are changing! 

 

More torching for Canada. 

[OKwx2k4]

With the AO going flat neutral for a time, will be a great 2 weeks to see the other factors influence our atmosphere and also observe the seasonal pattern progression. 

Really, as some said already, watching the west coast, enso and Bering Sea weather progressions. 

Would love to see a southern branch develop as we go forward.

[Andie]

Tonight a geomagnetic storm could provide auroras for our far north members   

https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/solar-activity-moon-auroras-geomagnetic-storm

[Madtown]

From earlier...still dancing getting a bit better actually

[Clinton]

Euro showing a modoki Nino.  January through March looks promising. 

Cold to close out October. 

[Tom]

9 hours ago, Clinton said:

Euro showing a modoki Nino.  January through March looks promising. 

Cold to close out October. 

Not to hype anything up but my goodness, if the new LRC comes out of the gates as the CFSv2 weeklies are suggesting it will be one of the most interesting seasons to analyze and follow.  

[chescowxman]

Our recent stretch of below normal temps looks to continue through much of the week. Nice weather through Friday but then needed rain is looking likely for the weekend. In addition to the rain...Saturday could be a mighty raw for September day with some of the highest spots in the county possibly not escaping the upper 50's. On a historical weather note today back in 1895 began the greatest late season heatwave across Chester County with the following locations all recording their first of 4 consecutive days over 90 degrees. Temperatures topped out at 100 at Coatesville; and 97 at West Chester, Phoenixville and Devault.

On the opposite side of the weather spectrum, today was also the earliest recorded freezing temperature, with a 32 degree low observed at both Coatesville and in West Chester back in 1956

Records for today: High 93 (1895) / Low 32 (1956) / Rain 2.48" (1938)

[Andie]

Far North Midwest members-

A Geomagnetic Storm Watch was issued Monday for fears of potential issues with communications and power grids on the ground, it was a different story in the sky, with people across the U.S. reporting dazzling displays of the Northern Lights – even farther south than usual.

[Black Hole]

Here is the latest Sep height anomaly composite:

Compare that to the forecast for the last 10 days of the month. The monthly average will probably end up pretty similar to what we have other than that we will have mean troughing over the far PNW and areas in the northeast will end up closer to average.

Looking into early October:Perhaps early signs of the GOA trough beginning to come alive. This helps to push everything downstream a bit further east as well. Difficult to say on if this actually develops of course, but the signs are there. For fun, here are the weeklies for the end of October to early November:

By this point we definitely have the BC ridge with cooler air east of the Rockies. Also a bit of a split flow look with a stronger STJ trying to get going. Not that week 6 weeklies are very accurate, but I just love watching things evolve this time of year.  

 

[Black Hole]

Oops, just realized I linked the wrong image earlier. Let's try this one for the first 2/3 of September. The main points are still the same. 

[OKwx2k4]

@Black Hole I'm really still OK with a trough in the west at this point in the game, as the westward shift in Niño hasn't really had its effects yet along with the Bering Sea still shuffling into place. 

That last map is the perfect mid-autumn map. It's all coming together perfectly for cold, in my opinion. 

Can almost just feel it in the air this year it seems like. 

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

@Black Hole I'm really still OK with a trough in the west at this point in the game, as the westward shift in Niño hasn't really had its effects yet along with the Bering Sea still shuffling into place. 

That last map is the perfect mid-autumn map. It's all coming together perfectly for cold, in my opinion. 

Can almost just feel it in the air this year it seems like. 

Agreed. Everything seems to be going according to plan at this point. It's fun to track and see how it evolves! 

[jaster220]

Just an early "seasonal reminder" that a HEAVY SNOW WARNING can in some cases call for more snow in a given time period than a WSWarning!

[OKwx2k4]

Lot of folks out west looking to kick off their snow seasons right in the next 10 days. Especially the PNW, but in fantasy ranges (240-384), every western state receives snow. 

[Andie]

73* at 5am. On our way to 89/90*
Low 90’s all week.  Rain still out of the picture.  

[mlgamer]

With a new LRC setting up soon, I once joked with Gary Lezak on the old KSHB weather blog about this and he laughed and pretty much agreed. All in fun.

 

[OKwx2k4]

22 hours ago, mlgamer said:

With a new LRC setting up soon, I once joked with Gary Lezak on the old KSHB weather blog about this and he laughed and pretty much agreed. All in fun.

 

Lezak's theory holds more provable merit than many of the other weather/climate-related theories have over the same span. Its still not perfect, but I have to give dues where they are due. 

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Lezak's theory holds more provable merit than many of the other weather/climate-related theories have over the same span. Its still not perfect, but I have to give dues where they are due. 

You do not often respond to my posts so to be clear I believe the LRC is pretty much what Lezak claims it to be. At the time I was noting that though a "unique" whether pattern sets up each year we had had very similar winters over recent years. Overall I think there are other longer term patterns that the LRC works within that explains why we have below normal snowfall for years on end for example. Like I said, Gary understood my point and laughed about it.

[Up_north_MI]

At our place at Higgins Lake in northern lower Michigan in the past 23 years we’ve averaged 66.5” of snow during the 7 ElNino winters, 80” during the 11 LaNina winters and 73.5 during the 5 Neutral winters. So unless something out of the ordinary happens we’ll be looking at a below average snow amount in our area more then likely. 

[Niko]

45 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

At our place at Higgins Lake in northern lower Michigan in the past 23 years we’ve averaged 66.5” of snow during the 7 ElNino winters, 80” during the 11 LaNina winters and 73.5 during the 5 Neutral winters. So unless something out of the ordinary happens we’ll be looking at a below average snow amount in our area more then likely. 

I am hoping for a Christmas Blizzard!!!! 

[OKwx2k4]

14 hours ago, mlgamer said:

You do not often respond to my posts so to be clear I believe the LRC is pretty much what Lezak claims it to be. At the time I was noting that though a "unique" whether pattern sets up each year we had had very similar winters over recent years. Overall I think there are other longer term patterns that the LRC works within that explains why we have below normal snowfall for years on end for example. Like I said, Gary understood my point and laughed about it.

I was saying the same thing, basically. I know a lot of folks who don't believe in it or discredit it but believe in unfounded things. 

[OKwx2k4]

Ahead on GFS, if the 3 frontal passages in 10 days works out, that'll pretty much be as real as autumn can get for a lot of us.

If that's our new pattern, wait til December and January. 

[OKwx2k4]

Of note, we have hit some of the highest -PDO values ever this year....in an El Niño. How wild is that?

[jaster220]

On 9/28/2023 at 3:26 PM, Up_north_MI said:

At our place at Higgins Lake in northern lower Michigan in the past 23 years we’ve averaged 66.5” of snow during the 7 ElNino winters, 80” during the 11 LaNina winters and 73.5 during the 5 Neutral winters. So unless something out of the ordinary happens we’ll be looking at a below average snow amount in our area more then likely. 

By far, Nino is the least favorable for us here in the Water Winter Wonderland state. Weak Nino's however (and even a couple not so weak) have delivered some good situations. Heck, January of '98 hit my former place outside TC with an 18 incher before the airport went the entire month of February with zero measurable snow. I appreciate your break-down listing btw.