November 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Welcome back to The Mitt amigo. Cool, thx for posting this. Too bad I missed the chance to see the headline myself. I swear that DTW has some kind of LES magnet going. They're always getting hit at least since my move here. 

You have certainly brought w/ you from Marshall that magnet here amigo.

[Hawkeye]

We have not been above freezing since last Thursday.

[Timmy Supercell]

Looks like we're 12 degrees right now. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 29/18 there was 0.02” of melted snow fall and a reported trace of snowfall. There was a trace of snow on the ground. The sun was out 49% of the time. For today the average H/L is 41/29. The record high of 65 was set in 1998 and the record low of 6 was set in 1929. The wettest was 1.13” in 1919 and the most snow fall was 4.5” in 1960. The most on the ground was 7” in 1940. Last year the H/L was 54/35 and there was 0.28” of rain fall.

[westMJim]

This morning it is cloudy and I have a temperature of 23 there is just a trace of snow on the ground. I was on the far SW side of town yesterday and there is more snow on the ground there than I have here. Also there were some moderate snow showers there as well.

Some weather history for November 29th 

SW lower Michigan. 

1929: A month after the great stock market crash, it is the temperature that crashes in Lower Michigan. Record morning cold in the single digits is followed by afternoon highs only in the 10 to 15-degree range.

1960: A strong cold front moves through dropping temperatures dramatically and setting off lake-effect snow showers. The temperature stays in the 20s during the day at Muskegon, after a high of 61 degrees the day before. The freighter Francisco Morazan runs aground off South Manitou Island in northern Lake Michigan during a heavy lake-effect snow squall. All aboard are rescued by the Coast Guard in near white-out conditions.

1998: Balmy weather prevails during the final days of November, with lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s. Record highs today include 65 degrees at Muskegon, Lansing, and Grand Rapids.

SE lower Michigan

2011, heavy rain fell across much of Southeast Michigan. The rain changed to snow during the evening and early morning hours of November 30. Between 1 and 3.5 inches of precipitation fell which helped make November 2011 and Autumn 2011 the wettest on record in Detroit. This was just another round of heavy rain in 2011 which was the wettest in Detroit history and the 4th wettest in Flint history.

 

1998, Flint and Saginaw had a two-day period of record highs of the same temperature with the 29th and 30th both having a temperature of 64 degrees.

The U.S.A.

1991 A tornado struck southeast Springfield, Missouri, causing F4 damage. Shortly after touchdown, the tornado reached F3 intensity, approximately 3 miles north of the town of Nixa. While crossing Highway 65, the tornado picked up a truck and dropped it onto a frontage road, killing one passenger and injuring ten others. The tornado intensified to F4 strength as it moved through the Woodbridge and Natural Bridge Estates subdivisions where 15 homes were destroyed. Altogether, two people were killed and 64 others were injured

 

[Timmy Supercell]

These are numbers you'd see around New Year's Day in these parts. 

[chescowxman]

Following our 1st measurable snow "event" of the season this morning's low of 20.8 was our coldest reading since way back on February 4th when the low was 9.8 degrees above zero. A couple more colder than normal days will close out the Month of November and we will finish this November as the coldest one so far this decade with our chilliest since 2019. We should start a nice warming trend by the weekend with temps getting back to a little above normal but expect rain to move in on Friday afternoon but clear out by Saturday. There is a chance at more rain by Sunday night.

Records for today: High 68 (1991) / Low 10 (1930) / Rain 2.84" (1987) / Snow 3.7" (1995)

[Tom]

As @Timmy Supercell said above, these type of temps from this airmass are legit cold for late NOV standards.  Courtesy WGN graphic, low's dipped into the single digits outside of Chicago yesterday morning.

[Clinton]

Nice weather for me today with highs in the upper 50s. Rain is on the way though!

[Tom]

@Clinton, if Gary thinks the LRC cycle length is shorter this season, it would make be around 42-44 days?  That is what I was originally thinking when I saw the storm race up the New England coast towards NovaScotia from the maps I posted.  After looking at some maps, I'm also seeing a possible 30 day "mini Harmonic cycle" within the main LRC. 

Check out this animation below...back on Oct 21st thru Nov 1st we saw a massive Alaska Ridge form (-EPO) and then a cut-off trough N of Hawaii...look what happened back on 11/22 and what is forecast to happen thru 12/3...interesting pattern  setting up and the SW Flow pattern from 10/22- 10/29 started already during the Thanksgiving holiday and into this week. I'm really curious to see what Gary's final forecast for the LRC will be on December 5th.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

This morning it is cloudy and I have a temperature of 23 there is just a trace of snow on the ground. I was on the far SW side of town yesterday and there is more snow on the ground there than I have here. Also there were some moderate snow showers there as well.

Some weather history for November 29th 

SW lower Michigan. 

1929: A month after the great stock market crash, it is the temperature that crashes in Lower Michigan. Record morning cold in the single digits is followed by afternoon highs only in the 10 to 15-degree range.

1960: A strong cold front moves through dropping temperatures dramatically and setting off lake-effect snow showers. The temperature stays in the 20s during the day at Muskegon, after a high of 61 degrees the day before. The freighter Francisco Morazan runs aground off South Manitou Island in northern Lake Michigan during a heavy lake-effect snow squall. All aboard are rescued by the Coast Guard in near white-out conditions.

1998: Balmy weather prevails during the final days of November, with lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s. Record highs today include 65 degrees at Muskegon, Lansing, and Grand Rapids.

SE lower Michigan

2011, heavy rain fell across much of Southeast Michigan. The rain changed to snow during the evening and early morning hours of November 30. Between 1 and 3.5 inches of precipitation fell which helped make November 2011 and Autumn 2011 the wettest on record in Detroit. This was just another round of heavy rain in 2011 which was the wettest in Detroit history and the 4th wettest in Flint history.

 

1998, Flint and Saginaw had a two-day period of record highs of the same temperature with the 29th and 30th both having a temperature of 64 degrees.

The U.S.A.

1991 A tornado struck southeast Springfield, Missouri, causing F4 damage. Shortly after touchdown, the tornado reached F3 intensity, approximately 3 miles north of the town of Nixa. While crossing Highway 65, the tornado picked up a truck and dropped it onto a frontage road, killing one passenger and injuring ten others. The tornado intensified to F4 strength as it moved through the Woodbridge and Natural Bridge Estates subdivisions where 15 homes were destroyed. Altogether, two people were killed and 64 others were injured

 

That 2011 rainstorm listed as historic for SEMI had an historic snowy side as well (imho). The SE region of GRR's CWA received 8-10" of heavy wet "concrete snow" that fell at 2"/hr with the classic massive flakes. The 8.1" recorded at the official Lansing site is the 7th largest November snowfall on the books (records back to 1863 btw).

This snow zone extended SSW down to Battle Creek/Marshall area as well. BC data is all "missing" for that date, but I recorded 8.5" that fell in about 4 hrs. I was having fun stuck in traffic on I-94 during my evening commute and ended up exiting and taking some back roads home into Marshall. This was my 4th largest personal Nov snowstorm total.

#1) 11-05-90=16.0"   #2) 11-21-15=12.5"   #3) 11-16-89=10.0"   #4) 11-29-11=8.5"   #5) 11-25/6-75=6.1"

 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, if Gary thinks the LRC cycle length is shorter this season, it would make be around 42-44 days?  That is what I was originally thinking when I saw the storm race up the New England coast towards NovaScotia from the maps I posted.  After looking at some maps, I'm also seeing a possible 30 day "mini cycle" within the main LRC. 

Check out this animation below...back on Oct 21st thru Nov 1st we saw a massive Alaska Ridge form (-EPO) and then a cut-off trough N of Hawaii...look what happened back on 11/22 and what is forecast to happen thru 12/3...interesting pattern  setting up and the SW Flow pattern from 10/22- 10/29 started already during the Thanksgiving holiday and into this week. I'm really curious to see what Gary's final forecast for the LRC will be on December 5th.

Nice find! I like the shorter cycle with this pattern. Maybe the week before Christmas we can marry up this sw flow with some artic air.  I know he's expecting an artic outbreak around then.

[jaster220]

29 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Nice find! I like the shorter cycle with this pattern. Maybe the week before Christmas we can marry up this sw flow with some artic air.  I know he's expecting an artic outbreak around then.

Day 4 of winter here with DTW at 28F. I think this LRC has some legs for sure, and will be remembered as the anti-Nino of 23-24

[mlgamer]

Looking strictly at the daily 500mb charts (and not forecast models) I am seeing around a 51-52 day LRC the best but nothing shorter really. Not saying that's right, just would like to see 500mb chart examples that support a shorter cycle. I don't know if Lezak has posted anything like that yet since I have no access to him.

 

[Clinton]

52 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Looking strictly at the daily 500mb charts (and not forecast models) I am seeing around a 51-52 day LRC the best but nothing shorter really. Not saying that's right, just would like to see 500mb chart examples that support a shorter cycle. I don't know if Lezak has posted anything like that yet since I have no access to him.

 

He hasn't yet but I expect that next week.

[chescowxman]

Some valley spots in the county made it down into the teens this morning. Today should be a great late fall day with temperatures just a little below normal for the last day of November. Saturday and Sunday look to be the only above normal temps over at least the next week. However, with the exception of Saturday (looks dry) during the day there could be showers almost anytime from Friday night through Sunday evening. Cold and dry weather returns by Monday.

Records for today: High 72 (1933) / Low 9 (1976) / Rain 2.51" (2020) / Snow 6.0" (1967)

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 37/20 there was no rain/snow fall. The day started with a trace of snow on the ground. The average H/L for today is 41/29 the record high of 64 was set in 1998 and the record low of 6 was set in 1958. The record precipitation of 0.65” that fell as 6.8” of snowfall was in 1940. November 1940 ended with 5 days in a row of snow fall for a 5 day total of 16.7” The most snow on the ground for this date was also in 1940 with 14”. Last year the H/L was 54/26 there was 0.06” of rain/snow.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for November 30

SW lower Michigan

1958: November ends on a frigid note with lows in the single numbers and highs only in the lower 20s. From 6 to 10 inches of lake effect, snow piles up near Lake Michigan.

1976: One of the coldest November on record ends with a blast of arctic air that drops low temperatures near zero and keeps highs only in the teens. Big Rapids falls to one degree below zero and Grand Haven measures three inches of lake-effect snow.

SE lower Michigan

2011, a low-pressure system tracked northeast into the Eastern Great Lakes allowing rain to change to snow, with total accumulations of 4 to 8 inches occurring over the Tri-Cities region, Shiawassee, and Livingston Counties. Elsewhere, generally, 1 to 4 inches of wet snow fell. Some of the higher snowfall accumulations that were reported included Auburn and Perry with 8 inches, Midland with 6.6 inches, Howell with 6.2 inches, and Bridgeport with 6.1 inches.

2008, a snowstorm hit Southeast Michigan and continued into December 1. The storm mainly affected the Flint, Saginaw, and Thumb regions. The heavy, wet snow piled to 5 to 8 inches, downed trees and power lines, and left about 25,000 customers without power. Some of the higher snowfall totals included 8.6 inches in Marlette, 7.0 inches near Chesaning, and 6.0 inches in Perry.

1999, cold air poured into the Great Lakes, as high pressure moved southeast from central Canada, producing several bands of lake effect snow over Lake Huron. One of the bands to move onto the eastern shore of Michigan Thumb. Measurable snow fell from Huron City, south to Marine City. Heavy snow fell from Port Sanilac to Port Huron, 7 inches accumulated during the morning.

1940, a snowstorm left Saginaw with 11.9 inches of snow, Flint with 7.8 inches of snow, and Detroit with 3.8 inches of snow.

The USA

An extremely rare late November hurricane began to affect the west coast of Florida as it strengthened during the day. The storm made landfall very early on December 1st south of Tampa Bay, weakened to a tropical storm as it crossed central Florida, and exited around St. Augustine. The storm regained Hurricane strength off Jacksonville late on the 1st. Heavy rain continued over northeast Florida on the 2nd. Gale force winds were reported from the Keys to Jacksonville and over 50 people lost their lives, mostly on ships at sea. Damage along the coast south of Jacksonville was heavy and excessive rain and wind seriously damaged citrus and truck crops.

[Clinton]

November stats.