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November 2023 Observations and Discussion


westMJim

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It will be time to flip the calendar  over to November. 

November is the last of the “Fall” months and here in Grand Rapids, MI  it can at times be close to a winter month. Here in Grand Rapids the average H/L starts out at 53.6/37.8 and falls to 41.0/28.6 by the 30th. The warmest mean for November is 47.6 in 1931 and the coldest mean is 31.0 in 1951. The record high for the month is 81 on November 1st, 1950, and just 25 days later the low fell all the way down to -10° November 1950 for the record low. November 1950 had a spread of 90° that is the biggest temperature spread of any month at Grand Rapids. On average 7.4” of snow falls in November. The most snow fall is the 31.0” that fell in November 2014. There was no snow fall in 1906 and 1907 for the least amount of snow fall. The average rain/melted snow fall is 2.48” the most for the month is 7.90” fell the least was just 0.06” in 1904. Last year November was a wild month.  The mean for November was 40.9° that was a departure of +0.9. There was 2.33” of rain/melted snow. But the month had a record daily high set on the 10th of 75. The low for the month was 18 set on the 19th, 20th, and 22nd. For the month there was 28.0” of snow fall, that is the 2nd most for any November. Daily record snow falls were recorded on the 19th (8.7”) and the 17th (7.6”) and a 2nd place total of 7.0” on the 17th. Now we can sit back and see how November 2023 will plays out. ‘

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Winds are raging outside tonight. 2 hours ago it was nearly calm when the kids were candy hunting.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Hibbing,MN with back to back  low temp records on the OCT 31st and NOV 1st 2023

Oct 31st low 7F -- old record 10F in 1996

Nov 1st low (thus far as of 2:27am) = 4F - old record 8F in 1984

Dewpoint is currently -1F so lower temp is possible.

image.thumb.png.2e6ae3f6e511b490d86b75b701ea0231.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Lots of record lows are going to be set in eastern Kansas and western Missouri, these 5:30 temps will easily drop a few more degrees. Currently 18 at my place.

 

1698834623036.png.jpg

20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

That's impressive. 14 F in Clarinda,iA and 19 at  KMCI--- pretty sure KMCI is a record.image.thumb.png.68197b66f56f1c076543af4ce6f6066f.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Welcome to November.  For October the mean at Grand Rapids was 52.6° that is a departure of -1.1. The month started off on the warm side with 4 days in a row of highs in the 80’s reaching 86 on the 3rd. The low for the month was 28 on the 31st it was a wet month with 5.51” of rain/melted snow.  That is a departure of +1.49”  

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 39/28 there was 0.05” of melted snow fall and a reported 0.1” of snow fall. The highest wind was 25MPH out of the S. There was 8% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 54/37 the record high of 81 was set in 1950 that is the record high for November and is the latest 80 day in the year. The record low of 21 was set in 1976 The record rain fall of 1.24” fell in 1982 the record snow fall of 4.0” fell in 1912. Last year the H/L was 65/40..

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At Muskegon yesterday a new record snow fall amount of 8.8” it was also the most snow fall for any October at Muskegon. Here in Grand Rapids the reported amount of snow fall was 0.1” here in MBY I have just under a half inch of snow on the ground. I also have a temperature of 22 at the current time. The official reading at GRR is 25.

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1991 was (KMCI breaking record this AM) a ball buster cold spell. Helped with the Halloween Super Snow---Both DSM and MSP had their earliest ever below 0 F temps ever recorded. Impressive that records are being broke nowdays with no snow on the ground.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Officially got my first freeze this morning, though barely at 32 for the low.

We were supposed to be in the upper 20's. Tonight looks like another equally cold night. Maybe it'll be a degree or two cooler tonight if there is no wind activity.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The models were teasing a good storm around here after the first week of November, but now the trend is toward a pretty dry, progressive pattern through mid month.  Locations east of Iowa have a better chance of decent rain.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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398646422_713922064104541_6774077912455348291_n.jpg

The graphic says yesterday but their FB page just posted this right before I did on here.. 🫠

  • Shivering 2

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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My lows the last 3 mornings have been 31, 26, and 23. Tulsa airport was also 23 this morning which broke the record for the date. My garden is toast obviously, which is a shame since we have 70s returning in a few days. It was a fun first taste of winter though. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Today was our first widespread freeze for all locations across Chester County. This ends the growing season at 207 days which is 9 days longer than our average season. Here in East Nantmeal we have reached a low so far of 28.7 this morning - we did not see readings that cold last year until the 28.2 on November 18th. Below normal temps both today and tomorrow before a nice warming trend begins over the weekend that brings us to above normal temps by mid-week before colder weather again toward next weekend. Next rain chances not till Monday night.
Records for today: High 82 (1982) / Low 20 (1923) / Rain 1.72" (2018)
image.png.46453d4d65a061f112efa734e42fba9f.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Looks like the first 2 weeks of November will be on the warm side and dry for most, zonal flow looks to dominate for the time being.  The EPO and AO are going to spend a little time in the neutral to positive range.

0d40d5_8603aaf5d4dd4d8ab1c9950d0cb1233d~mv2.png

0d40d5_225bbd7e1559471784068cf391837e33~mv2.png

However one of the most encouraging signs this fall is where the MJO is looking to play ball.  Last year the MJO would travel from the warm phases into a cold phase and then back to neutral and kept making the same circle over and over again.  Look what's happening this year, the MJO is cycling through phases that will be cold throughout most of the winter and by 10th the MJO will head towards phase 7 and 8.  The LRC has shown us that the blocking will be there at times this winter and I look forward to more exciting weather for the 2nd half of the month.

0d40d5_40b76f868b244989ae44f25a8805b286~mv2.png

0d40d5_637fe496773344808d95c3b095310222~mv2.png

 

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The official H/L yesterday was 40/24 there was a trace of snow fall and a reported trace of snow on the ground at GRR. The highest wind speed was 20 MPH out of the S. There was 28% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 53/37 the record high of 77 was set in 1938 and the record low of 18 was set in 1951. The most rain fall on 2.69” fell in 2003. The most snow fall of 1.5” fell in 1991. Last year the H/L was a warm 67/38.

The low of 24 yesterday was of course a hard freeze and it was the earliest low below 25 since 1983. Last year it did not happen until November 18th the average date is November 11th

Yesterday in the October summery I made a typo mistake The October mean was  52.6° that is a departure of +1.1 I had the departure of -1.1.

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26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks like the first 2 weeks of November will be on the warm side and dry for most, zonal flow looks to dominate for the time being.  The EPO and AO are going to spend a little time in the neutral to positive range.

0d40d5_8603aaf5d4dd4d8ab1c9950d0cb1233d~mv2.png

0d40d5_225bbd7e1559471784068cf391837e33~mv2.png

However one of the most encouraging signs this fall is where the MJO is looking to play ball.  Last year the MJO would travel from the warm phases into a cold phase and then back to neutral and kept making the same circle over and over again.  Look what's happening this year, the MJO is cycling through phases that will be cold throughout most of the winter and by 10th the MJO will head towards phase 7 and 8.  The LRC has shown us that the blocking will be there at times this winter and I look forward to more exciting weather for the 2nd half of the month.

0d40d5_40b76f868b244989ae44f25a8805b286~mv2.png

0d40d5_637fe496773344808d95c3b095310222~mv2.png

 

Great stuff Clinton, I haven't been paying much attn to the MJO this year as I'm more focused on the anchor troughs/ridges setting up this Autumn.  I'm concerned out here for the dominant SW ridge but that bodes well for the cold out East of here.  I hopeful the EPO/WPO play ball that'll allow storms to cut underneath the NW NAMER ridge into my area and "bowl" their way east into TX/OK come late NOV into DEC.

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It's a sad day in the valley as the D Backs fell apart at the World Series....hats off to the Texans, they showed the world "Don't mess with Texas!"  Hahah...in all seriousness, it was a nice ride and as the Arizona has alot to look forward to.  @Andie, you still up from last nights festivities?  J/K!  I'm sure Dallas is gonna a blast this weekend.

As for the weather,  these cool nights have been delightful sleeping with the windows open and NO A/C running., however, it's expected to warm back up again into the Upper 80's as the SW ridge comes a live yet again through the middle part of next week.  Bonus summer weather!

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10 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's a sad day in the valley as the D Backs fell apart at the World Series....hats off to the Texans,

I know how you fell. I work for a Detroit Tigers farm team and while it has been too long since the Tigers have been in the post season it is still fun to see so many of the player's who played on our team make the post season. 

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Quick note, last nights JMA Week 3-4 are flashing a similar 500mb pattern that evolved during the 1st half of OCT and looks like @Black Hole maps in the Winter thread.  Could be a sign of LRC cycle #2...here we go...

 

2.png

Temp/Precip...encouraging sings of the what @Clinton showed in terms of the MJO signaling a wetter pattern for SoCal/4 corners region and most of the Sub Forum.

Screen Shot 2023-11-02 at 6.02.22 AM.png

Screen Shot 2023-11-02 at 6.02.30 AM.png

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Hey whats this!? We got to 24 this morning. Not sure what the daily record is, I'll look it up.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like the first 2 weeks of November will be on the warm side and dry for most, zonal flow looks to dominate for the time being.  The EPO and AO are going to spend a little time in the neutral to positive range.

0d40d5_8603aaf5d4dd4d8ab1c9950d0cb1233d~mv2.png

0d40d5_225bbd7e1559471784068cf391837e33~mv2.png

However one of the most encouraging signs this fall is where the MJO is looking to play ball.  Last year the MJO would travel from the warm phases into a cold phase and then back to neutral and kept making the same circle over and over again.  Look what's happening this year, the MJO is cycling through phases that will be cold throughout most of the winter and by 10th the MJO will head towards phase 7 and 8.  The LRC has shown us that the blocking will be there at times this winter and I look forward to more exciting weather for the 2nd half of the month.

0d40d5_40b76f868b244989ae44f25a8805b286~mv2.png

0d40d5_637fe496773344808d95c3b095310222~mv2.png

 

The EPS day 5-15 composite I posted in the winter thread looks a lot like the phase 7 map for Nov you posted. Good sign I'd say. 

  • bongocat-test 1

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Quick note, last nights JMA Week 3-4 are flashing a similar 500mb pattern that evolved during the 1st half of OCT and looks like @Black Hole maps in the Winter thread.  Could be a sign of LRC cycle #2...here we go...

 

2.png

Temp/Precip...encouraging sings of the what @Clinton showed in terms of the MJO signaling a wetter pattern for SoCal/4 corners region and most of the Sub Forum.

Screen Shot 2023-11-02 at 6.02.22 AM.png

Screen Shot 2023-11-02 at 6.02.30 AM.png

Certainly could be signs of cycle 2.  El Ninos on average have ahorter cycle lengths than La ninas.

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Just bad luck for my area in terms of the drought conditions. This is one of the longest stretches with being in the worst category from what I can remember. Obviously you don't bust a drought in the winter; just hoping we can stay at average or just above for the winter months otherwise next spring will be in a bad bad situation around here. 

F97pft2XkAAkGHP.jpg

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5 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Just bad luck for my area in terms of the drought conditions. This is one of the longest stretches with being in the worst category from what I can remember. Obviously you don't bust a drought in the winter; just hoping we can stay at average or just above for the winter months otherwise next spring will be in a bad bad situation around here. 

F97pft2XkAAkGHP.jpg

That’s too bad. Fairly small area that has hung on for a long time. My county is officially out of any drought conditions. That is a massive change from the last couple of years. 

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 52/36. There was no rain or snow. The highest wind gust was 29 MPH out of the S. The sun was out 47% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 53/37 the record high of 76 was set in 1938/ and 2015 the record low of 17 was set in 1951. The record rain fall of 2.17” was in 1935. The record snow fall of 10.4” was in 1991 the record snow on the ground was 6” in 1996. Last year it was a warm 71-48.

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