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November 2023 Observations and Discussion


westMJim

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Happy Friday and what a wonderful day of weather that Mother Nature is "teeing" up...I'm sure there will be many golfers on the courses today!  Not much change out here in the wx dept until we get into next week but I'll have no complaints as temps will run about 5-10F AN for the year.  Might touch 90F a couple times through early next week.

Screen Shot 2023-11-03 at 5.18.28 AM.png

 

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16 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Boring start to November.  See ya'll in a week or so for some preseason hype.  

Might as well add December to the list also because (at least in my neck of the woods) its looking boring as well and mild. The whole month looks snowless w/ AN temps. January is looking by far much better though. Fingers crossed on that one. Also, SMI in November, snows are useless, (average highs still mild and average snow is relatively low), so I am not really looking for anything this month.

Welcome to a Nino winter.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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24 minutes ago, Niko said:

Might as well add December to the list also because (at least in my neck of the woods) its looking boring as well and mild. The whole month looks snowless w/ AN temps. January is looking by far much better though. Fingers crossed on that one. Also, SMI in November, snows are useless, (average highs still mild and average snow is relatively low), so I am not really looking for anything this month.

Welcome to a Nino winter.

While the trend with El NIno is AN and less snowy, storms could still pop in December.  I don't expect much of anything in November to be honest.  And last year I got 28" in November so I'd rather have that come in December.   We had 20+ days in a row last Dec/Jan with no snow and still made it a top 3 snowiest winter on record.  (Though they record snow differently than they did way back in the day so who knows).  

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Another frosty start across most of the County this morning. Temperatures look to remain slightly below normal over the weekend and into the start of the new work week. However we should stay above freezing for night time lows for the upcoming week. Colder air looks likely to return again by the middle of the month.
Records for today: High 80 (2003) / Low 17 (1951) / Rain 1.24" (1910) and Snow 1.0" (1910) part of the 2nd largest early season snowstorm in Chester County history with another 5.6" falling on the 4th for a 6.6" total. The greatest early season snowfall in the county occurred just 12 years ago with the 9.0" of snow that fell on October 29, 2011.
image.png.2ed1c250806bac0b7a435de16d61b004.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/42 there was 0.01” of rain fall there was no snowfall. It was a windy day with the highest gust of 36 MPH out of the W. There was 53% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 52/36 the record high of 75 was set in 2015. In 2015 we were in the middle of 4 days in a row of highs in the 70’s and then there was one day with a high of 67. 201516 was a very strong El Nino winter. The record low of 15 was set in 1951. 1951 also had the record snowfall for this date of 5.8” The most snow on the ground was 7”in 1991 and 1966. The record rain fall of 1.50” fell in 1959. Last year the H/L was 68/57 and there was 0.11” of rain fall.

I know a lot of people do not like the time change but none the less tonight is the night we change the time to what I like to call “Winter Time” so don’t forget to change clocks that do not change by themselves one hour back to Winter Time.

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Up to a downright balmy 62 degrees under mostly sunny skies. A lot of people in our neighborhood are putting up outdoor Christmas lights today. It's definitely different in the Midwest in that people want to hang lights before it gets too cold/snowy but I just can't bring myself to do it yet. We still need to celebrate Thanksgiving first!

The next week is looking quite pleasant with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs mostly in the 50s/60s. Guess we are returning to our regular fall programming after getting a quick taste of winter this past week. I'll take it! 

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/39 there was no rain or snowfall. The sun was out a reported 28% of the time. For today the average H/L is 52/36 the record high of 75 was set in 1978 and the record low of 6 was set in 1951. The record rain fall of 2.66” was in 1902 and the record snowfall of 2.6” was in 1982 the most snow on the ground was 6” in 1966. Last year the H/L was 66/48 and there was 0.06” of rain fall.

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PHX hit a high of 89F on both Fri & Sat...today we are adding a few degrees and heading up to 92F...TBH, it doesn't "feel" that hot as the sun angle is very low this time of year, however, it certainly is great pool time weather.  I'll prob be heading there this afternoon to catch some rays.

On a side note, one thing I've noticed is how dirty the air looks when I left Fountain Hills into the valley as I get a great vantage point up high above the valley.  My goodness, I don't think I've ever seen it that milky from all the dust that gets blown around.  We need moisture!  With that being, there is a good chance we see some of that "liquid gold"  and "white gold" up in the mountains come mid month.

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Models just keep going drier and drier.  We may not get any precip for the first three weeks of November.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models just keep going drier and drier.  We may not get any precip for the first three weeks of November.

I am thinking it’s going to be difficult to break this stubborn pattern for the next month or so… really boring pattern upcoming, however I will enjoy the warm Fall weather (which is much better than dry, windy, and cold).

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Interesting looking at the EPS global view for now vs 2 weeks from now. Basically, everything reverses so continued changes in the weather pattern are on their way. Notice the ridging building along the west coast and across the higher latitudes in Canada. It should give some cooler weather east of the Rockies. Also, this change will help to raise the PDO with the waters cooling northwest of Hawaii and warming along the west coast. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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This from this afternoon discussion 
PRETTY   
BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING   
WEEK, EVEN THE EURO WARMS US BACK UP INTO THE 50S, SO THERE ARE   
DEFINITELY NO HINTS OF WINTER WEATHER ON THE HORIZON FOR LOWER   
MICHIGAN.  
No more is needed to say.

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1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

Same here as the dry weather pattern continues indefinitely. Not much else to say really. Hopefully something changes for the better. 😐

I’m not too optimistic for weather here in KC. This pattern for the last month has been dry and warm with a cold couple cold shots. Nothing that screams a great winter for us 

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

This from this afternoon discussion 
PRETTY   
BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING   
WEEK, EVEN THE EURO WARMS US BACK UP INTO THE 50S, SO THERE ARE   
DEFINITELY NO HINTS OF WINTER WEATHER ON THE HORIZON FOR LOWER   
MICHIGAN.  
No more is needed to say.

Reads just like an @Stacsh post. Maybe he's an observer at GRR now.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Members in the Norther Midwest can observe auroras tonight and next few days.  Enjoy!  
Pictures!

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 52/30 (I had a low of 27) there was a trace of rain fall and 0 snow fall. There were 22 HDD’s the highest wind gust of 17 MPH was out of the sw. For today the average H/L is 51/36 the record high of 77 was set in 1975 and the record low of 9 was set in 1951. The record rain fall of 1.29” was in 1941. The record snow fall of 4.0” fell in 1988 the most snow on the ground was 6" in 1951. Last year the H/L was 64/43.

At the current time it is rather windy with a temperature of 51 there are also a few sprinkles at this time.

Edited by westMJim
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This week should be a roller coaster ride regarding temperatures. Both Tuesday and Thursday should see temps well above normal in the mid 60's. The other days this week and into the weekend will see below normal temps with well below normal readings by Friday. Highs toward and through the weekend will likely stay in the 40's for high temps. Next chance of rain is not until Friday.
Records for today: High 78 (1948) / Low 18 (1991) / Rain 2.90" (1963) / Snow 8.6" (1953)
image.png.c194adf92efbb570f1747a76860effdb.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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14 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Reads just like an @Stacsh post. Maybe he's an observer at GRR now.

Ha not quite.  Just looking at trends.  And it's El Nino.  Odds are a torchy winter.  November looks pretty warm down the road so far.  But that's more typical than not.      Doesn't mean we can't get a big snow storm or 2  early in the season!  And that's all I really care about.    I want a snowy December.  Doesn't seem to happen much anymore.  

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 52/30 (I had a low of 27) there was a trace of rain fall and 0 snow fall. There were 22 HDD’s the highest wind gust of 17 MPH was out of the sw. For today the average H/L is 51/36 the record high of 77 was set in 1975 and the record low of 9 was set in 1951. The record rain fall of 1.29” was in 1941. The record snow fall of 4.0” fell in 1988 the most snow on the ground was 6’ in 1951. Last year the H/L was 64/43.

At the current time it is rather windy with a temperature of 51 there are also a few sprinkles at this time.

6 feet is a lot of snow.....haha jk

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12z GFS doesn't show our next chance of precipitation until the 19th. 12z CMC has zero precipitation for most of the central and northern Plains through the next 10 days.

As others have mentioned, it's time to hit the snooze button with this pattern. Wake me up when we have something to track again.

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Tbh, I am liking this mild weather we are having now. I'd say save the best for later in winter. Now, December is looking very balmy for my area, so I am hoping S MI can score a couple of nice storms in January and February. Near average snowfall will make me satisfied for a nino winter.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I will say, the end of the 12z EPS didn't look half bad.

Once the western trough gets kicked out some blocking overtakes the GOA and Canada. Always better to see blocking in the high latitudes vs the troughs we are seeing now. Pair that with a more active STJ and we could go from a boring month to a fun one pretty quickly! 

14-km EPS Global North America 500 hPa Height Anom.gif

14-km EPS Global North America 850 hPa Temp Anom.gif

index (50).png

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Just like the other couple days this past weekend, PHX hit 93F on both SUN and MON, with today likely being the last 90F day of the season...let's hope so!  Today, it will be very windy up north in the mountains as a dry cold front approaches the state of Arizona.  By tomorrow, temps drop into the upper 70's with nothing but sunshine and more sunshine...😎...what about rumors of change?  Indeed, as I'll be tracking a pretty good chance of a strong Pacific storm to track into the So Cal/4corners region around the 16th/17th.  This one will likely be my 1st Winter storm of the season...let's get it!

 

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Typical up and down weather pattern as we move through November. Warmer today with temps well above normal in the upper 60's. Cooler again tomorrow - milder Thursday then below normal through the upcoming weekend. Unfortunately only minor chances of much needed rain through the week.
Records for today: High 75 (1938) / Low 19 (1960) / Rain 1.38" (1932)
image.png.22af2b2ebaa956004044c10cc9debdf4.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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8 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I will say, the end of the 12z EPS didn't look half bad.

Once the western trough gets kicked out some blocking overtakes the GOA and Canada. Always better to see blocking in the high latitudes vs the troughs we are seeing now. Pair that with a more active STJ and we could go from a boring month to a fun one pretty quickly! 

14-km EPS Global North America 500 hPa Height Anom.gif

14-km EPS Global North America 850 hPa Temp Anom.gif

index (50).png

The 17th-21st has quite a similar look to the OCT 10th-14th storm...CO Low??  The amount of high lat blocking showing up at this range could be a tell tail sign of a Blocked Up, Slow moving storm across the Heartland.

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It was a very pleasant early November day yesterday the official H/L was 62/45 there was 0.03” of rain fall (I had 0.05”) it was a windy day with the highest wind speed of 47MPH. For today the average H/L is 51/35 the record high of 7 was set in 2020 and the record low of 14 was set in 1991. The record snowfall of 6.0” fell in 1951 and 1951 had the most snow on the ground with 11”. Last year the H/L was 52/36.

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I'm seeing a LR signal of a SER that should develop over Thanksgiving week and the return of the "North American Vortex" as early season Sub Zero Arctic Air is going to start billowing up across Canada.  Winter is around the corner and Mother nature will begin to lay down the White gold across the U.S. during Thanksgiving Week.  The West appears to be in for a hellova ride and the mountains will be blessed with White Gold and a Fantastic start to the Ski/Snowboard season.  I'm actually getting pretty stoked about tracking winter storms around these parts and then will eventually track these systems across the SUB once they cut towards the GL's/MW.  If the blocking is strong enough, then I think the Lower Lakes region could be in the game late late month but I think more-so towards early DEC.  @CentralNebWeather @hawkstwelve @Beltrami Island should be seeing flakes fly by Thanksgiving week.  Festive Storm Tracking???  Yes please!

 

Here it comes....10mb STRAT warming right where you want it to deliver a punch into the Polar Vortex....lookout below come DEC!

 

temp10anim.gif

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EPS guidance in 5 day chunks below. Main theme is the western trough for the next 10 days, with some signal for undercutting of a +PNA ridge towards the end. That would spread some precip further inland towards my area potentially. Either way, major warm anomalies across the country for now, but probably waning by the end of the month.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-9747200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-0179200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-0611200.png

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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