November 2023 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

Cool and rainy this morning. Not a lot, but this much so far. Rain continues  

[CentralNebWeather]

 

 

Gray, rainy November Saturday 

[hawkstwelve]

Up to a downright balmy 62 degrees under mostly sunny skies. A lot of people in our neighborhood are putting up outdoor Christmas lights today. It's definitely different in the Midwest in that people want to hang lights before it gets too cold/snowy but I just can't bring myself to do it yet. We still need to celebrate Thanksgiving first!

The next week is looking quite pleasant with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs mostly in the 50s/60s. Guess we are returning to our regular fall programming after getting a quick taste of winter this past week. I'll take it! 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/39 there was no rain or snowfall. The sun was out a reported 28% of the time. For today the average H/L is 52/36 the record high of 75 was set in 1978 and the record low of 6 was set in 1951. The record rain fall of 2.66” was in 1902 and the record snowfall of 2.6” was in 1982 the most snow on the ground was 6” in 1966. Last year the H/L was 66/48 and there was 0.06” of rain fall.

[Tom]

PHX hit a high of 89F on both Fri & Sat...today we are adding a few degrees and heading up to 92F...TBH, it doesn't "feel" that hot as the sun angle is very low this time of year, however, it certainly is great pool time weather.  I'll prob be heading there this afternoon to catch some rays.

On a side note, one thing I've noticed is how dirty the air looks when I left Fountain Hills into the valley as I get a great vantage point up high above the valley.  My goodness, I don't think I've ever seen it that milky from all the dust that gets blown around.  We need moisture!  With that being, there is a good chance we see some of that "liquid gold"  and "white gold" up in the mountains come mid month.

[Madtown]

Hows it look for trends end on Nov early Dec. Getting ready to build the ice rink

[Hawkeye]

Models just keep going drier and drier.  We may not get any precip for the first three weeks of November.

[Bryan1117]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models just keep going drier and drier.  We may not get any precip for the first three weeks of November.

I am thinking it’s going to be difficult to break this stubborn pattern for the next month or so… really boring pattern upcoming, however I will enjoy the warm Fall weather (which is much better than dry, windy, and cold).

[mlgamer]

Same here as the dry weather pattern continues indefinitely. Not much else to say really. Hopefully something changes for the better.

[Black Hole]

Interesting looking at the EPS global view for now vs 2 weeks from now. Basically, everything reverses so continued changes in the weather pattern are on their way. Notice the ridging building along the west coast and across the higher latitudes in Canada. It should give some cooler weather east of the Rockies. Also, this change will help to raise the PDO with the waters cooling northwest of Hawaii and warming along the west coast. 

[westMJim]

This from this afternoon discussion 
PRETTY   
BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING   
WEEK, EVEN THE EURO WARMS US BACK UP INTO THE 50S, SO THERE ARE   
DEFINITELY NO HINTS OF WINTER WEATHER ON THE HORIZON FOR LOWER   
MICHIGAN.  
No more is needed to say.

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

Same here as the dry weather pattern continues indefinitely. Not much else to say really. Hopefully something changes for the better.

I’m not too optimistic for weather here in KC. This pattern for the last month has been dry and warm with a cold couple cold shots. Nothing that screams a great winter for us 

[gimmesnow]

If this ends up being a November when it's warm and dry until a little before Thanksgiving, then the switch flips, I'll be really happy.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

This from this afternoon discussion 
PRETTY   
BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING   
WEEK, EVEN THE EURO WARMS US BACK UP INTO THE 50S, SO THERE ARE   
DEFINITELY NO HINTS OF WINTER WEATHER ON THE HORIZON FOR LOWER   
MICHIGAN.  
No more is needed to say.

Reads just like an @Stacsh post. Maybe he's an observer at GRR now.

[mlgamer]

2 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Nothing that screams a great winter for us 

Yep, that's pretty much what I'm thinking so far...

[Andie]

Members in the Norther Midwest can observe auroras tonight and next few days.  Enjoy!  
Pictures!

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental

[Clinton]

Above average temperatures and dry as a bone weather will continue for at least the next 10 days. Near record highs possible Tuesday and Wednesday. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 52/30 (I had a low of 27) there was a trace of rain fall and 0 snow fall. There were 22 HDD’s the highest wind gust of 17 MPH was out of the sw. For today the average H/L is 51/36 the record high of 77 was set in 1975 and the record low of 9 was set in 1951. The record rain fall of 1.29” was in 1941. The record snow fall of 4.0” fell in 1988 the most snow on the ground was 6" in 1951. Last year the H/L was 64/43.

At the current time it is rather windy with a temperature of 51 there are also a few sprinkles at this time.

Edited November 6 by westMJim

[chescowxman]

This week should be a roller coaster ride regarding temperatures. Both Tuesday and Thursday should see temps well above normal in the mid 60's. The other days this week and into the weekend will see below normal temps with well below normal readings by Friday. Highs toward and through the weekend will likely stay in the 40's for high temps. Next chance of rain is not until Friday.

Records for today: High 78 (1948) / Low 18 (1991) / Rain 2.90" (1963) / Snow 8.6" (1953)

[tStacsh]

14 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Reads just like an @Stacsh post. Maybe he's an observer at GRR now.

Ha not quite.  Just looking at trends.  And it's El Nino.  Odds are a torchy winter.  November looks pretty warm down the road so far.  But that's more typical than not.      Doesn't mean we can't get a big snow storm or 2  early in the season!  And that's all I really care about.    I want a snowy December.  Doesn't seem to happen much anymore.  

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 52/30 (I had a low of 27) there was a trace of rain fall and 0 snow fall. There were 22 HDD’s the highest wind gust of 17 MPH was out of the sw. For today the average H/L is 51/36 the record high of 77 was set in 1975 and the record low of 9 was set in 1951. The record rain fall of 1.29” was in 1941. The record snow fall of 4.0” fell in 1988 the most snow on the ground was 6’ in 1951. Last year the H/L was 64/43.

At the current time it is rather windy with a temperature of 51 there are also a few sprinkles at this time.

6 feet is a lot of snow.....haha jk

[westMJim]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

6 feet is a lot of snow

Thanks I changed it

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS doesn't show our next chance of precipitation until the 19th. 12z CMC has zero precipitation for most of the central and northern Plains through the next 10 days.

As others have mentioned, it's time to hit the snooze button with this pattern. Wake me up when we have something to track again.

[Niko]

Tbh, I am liking this mild weather we are having now. I'd say save the best for later in winter. Now, December is looking very balmy for my area, so I am hoping S MI can score a couple of nice storms in January and February. Near average snowfall will make me satisfied for a nino winter.

[Clinton]

CPC day 8-14 likes a western trough

[hawkstwelve]

I will say, the end of the 12z EPS didn't look half bad.

Once the western trough gets kicked out some blocking overtakes the GOA and Canada. Always better to see blocking in the high latitudes vs the troughs we are seeing now. Pair that with a more active STJ and we could go from a boring month to a fun one pretty quickly! 

[Tom]

Just like the other couple days this past weekend, PHX hit 93F on both SUN and MON, with today likely being the last 90F day of the season...let's hope so!  Today, it will be very windy up north in the mountains as a dry cold front approaches the state of Arizona.  By tomorrow, temps drop into the upper 70's with nothing but sunshine and more sunshine......what about rumors of change?  Indeed, as I'll be tracking a pretty good chance of a strong Pacific storm to track into the So Cal/4corners region around the 16th/17th.  This one will likely be my 1st Winter storm of the season...let's get it!

 

[chescowxman]

Typical up and down weather pattern as we move through November. Warmer today with temps well above normal in the upper 60's. Cooler again tomorrow - milder Thursday then below normal through the upcoming weekend. Unfortunately only minor chances of much needed rain through the week.

Records for today: High 75 (1938) / Low 19 (1960) / Rain 1.38" (1932)

[Tom]

8 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I will say, the end of the 12z EPS didn't look half bad.

Once the western trough gets kicked out some blocking overtakes the GOA and Canada. Always better to see blocking in the high latitudes vs the troughs we are seeing now. Pair that with a more active STJ and we could go from a boring month to a fun one pretty quickly! 

The 17th-21st has quite a similar look to the OCT 10th-14th storm...CO Low??  The amount of high lat blocking showing up at this range could be a tell tail sign of a Blocked Up, Slow moving storm across the Heartland.

[westMJim]

It was a very pleasant early November day yesterday the official H/L was 62/45 there was 0.03” of rain fall (I had 0.05”) it was a windy day with the highest wind speed of 47MPH. For today the average H/L is 51/35 the record high of 7 was set in 2020 and the record low of 14 was set in 1991. The record snowfall of 6.0” fell in 1951 and 1951 had the most snow on the ground with 11”. Last year the H/L was 52/36.

[Tom]

I'm seeing a LR signal of a SER that should develop over Thanksgiving week and the return of the "North American Vortex" as early season Sub Zero Arctic Air is going to start billowing up across Canada.  Winter is around the corner and Mother nature will begin to lay down the White gold across the U.S. during Thanksgiving Week.  The West appears to be in for a hellova ride and the mountains will be blessed with White Gold and a Fantastic start to the Ski/Snowboard season.  I'm actually getting pretty stoked about tracking winter storms around these parts and then will eventually track these systems across the SUB once they cut towards the GL's/MW.  If the blocking is strong enough, then I think the Lower Lakes region could be in the game late late month but I think more-so towards early DEC.  @CentralNebWeather @hawkstwelve @Beltrami Island should be seeing flakes fly by Thanksgiving week.  Festive Storm Tracking???  Yes please!

 

Here it comes....10mb STRAT warming right where you want it to deliver a punch into the Polar Vortex....lookout below come DEC!

 

[Black Hole]

EPS guidance in 5 day chunks below. Main theme is the western trough for the next 10 days, with some signal for undercutting of a +PNA ridge towards the end. That would spread some precip further inland towards my area potentially. Either way, major warm anomalies across the country for now, but probably waning by the end of the month.

[sumweatherdude]

KC came within three degrees of a record high today  (at the airport).  Downtown, we came within one degree. 

[Clinton]

47 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

KC came within three degrees of a record high today  (at the airport).  Downtown, we came within one degree. 

Way to warm for this time of year, it hit 80 at my place this afternoon. 

@NWSKansasCity

Follow

 

KC hit 75 degrees today which is 18 degrees above normal! We fell only a few degrees below the record high of 78 set in 1934

[Andie]

Front coming through Thursday. 63-49.  
80% chance rain some thunderstorms.  
‘Bout time!!

Saw and heard some geese fly over the house just before sunset.  They were beating the chill up north. 
That’s a good sign.  I love to watch them.  
when I lived west of Fort Worth they always circled over our property waiting for stragglers every Fall and Spring. 

Beautiful noisy squawkers.  Once the stragglers arrived they’d circle 4-5 times then the lead headed on his way.  
They would form their beautiful V and be on their way.  

Warm today. High was 85 here, repeat tomorrow, then rain and a chill on Thursday.   

[chescowxman]

A below normal November looks increasingly likely looking at the longer range models that take us through Thanksgiving week here in Chester County. Today will be a good 15 degrees chillier than yesterday and tomorrow will be 15 degrees warmer than today. Overall so far in November we have experience below normal temperatures. With the exception of tomorrow we should see most days over the next week continuing this chilly trend with below normal temps. Unfortunately, any rain chances look slight at best.

Records for today: High (76) 2020 / 17 (1976) / Rain 2.53 (1996) / Snow 0.8" (1927)

[Tom]

Happy Hump Day!  The Valley of PHX likely has seen the last of the 90's for the year as we put the Heat in the "Rearview Mirror" and LOOK forward to bountiful days of precip and Snow for the mountains.  Looking at the data this morning, I'm starting to feel more confident that a reversal in the wx pattern is heading for S CA/AZ region and eventually for those in the Plains/S MW states that are in dire need of Precip.  The weekend of the 18th/19th (Thanksgiving Week) shall be eventful for many of us on here...sharpen up those pencils and notepads!  How about a Good Ol' Colorado Low...Bowling Ball???  LFG!!

0z Euro...what a beautiful pattern heading for the Sierra Ski resorts and the Intermountain West...

 

Week 2...shall we start that Storm Train during Thanksgiving Week?  How about that Southern Stream JET??  

 

 

[Black Hole]

It was 85F here yesterday. A bit much for November lol

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 56/39 there was a trace of rain fall. It was another windy day with the highest wind speed of 34 MPH out of the W. There was 15% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 51/35 the record high of 74 was set in 2020 and the record low of 16 was set in 1976 and 1991 (note 1976 was a weak El Nino and 1991 was a strong one) The record rain fall of 0.76” fell in 1916 the record snow fall of 7.5” fell in 1921 and the most on the ground also was in 1921 with 8” Last year the H/L was 52/34.

This morning here in MBY there has been at times heavy cold rain. The current temperature is 36 with heavy rain falling at times.

[chescowxman]

For you snow fans out there....of note here in Chester County PA we have only averaged a first measurable snowfall prior to November 30th only 43% of the time or 55 times with 129 years of records.

The longest stretch without a first measurable snowfall was the 9 years between 1941 and 1949 followed closely by the 8 years between 1970 and 1978. The most consecutive years with snowfall prior to the end of November was the 10 years between 1903 and 1912.

[jaster220]

Interesting map today/this evening. Just had a couple nice rumbles of thunder. This late morning featured some pretty intense rainfall with temps in the 30's. Could certainly have been a quick hitting front-end thumper during winter. Some bitter cold air mass just to the NE of Michigan was feeding into the system with high temps having quite a spread today from lower 50's along OH state line to mid 30's a couple of counties north of here. Now I see a pretty large snow shield a bit north in ONT. Won't take long before the real deal is setting it's sights on The Mitt. 

[Clinton]

22 hours ago, Tom said:

Happy Hump Day!  The Valley of PHX likely has seen the last of the 90's for the year as we put the Heat in the "Rearview Mirror" and LOOK forward to bountiful days of precip and Snow for the mountains.  Looking at the data this morning, I'm starting to feel more confident that a reversal in the wx pattern is heading for S CA/AZ region and eventually for those in the Plains/S MW states that are in dire need of Precip.  The weekend of the 18th/19th (Thanksgiving Week) shall be eventful for many of us on here...sharpen up those pencils and notepads!  How about a Good Ol' Colorado Low...Bowling Ball???  LFG!!

0z Euro...what a beautiful pattern heading for the Sierra Ski resorts and the Intermountain West...

 

Week 2...shall we start that Storm Train during Thanksgiving Week?  How about that Southern Stream JET??  

 

 

The GFS hopefully is struggling with the pattern change and the storm on the 18th.  The Euro is showing a strong storm, CO/LO that may even fire up a severe weather outbreak in my neighborhood, the GFS had this scenario just yesterday. Split flow

  

The GFS wants to make Black Friday white Friday for some,  just bring on the moisture please!

 

 

[westMJim]

It sure was gloomy yesterday with lots of clouds there were periods of heavy rain 0.67”. It was cool 44/37 windy at times highest wind 32 out of the E. There was a report of a thunderstorm. For today the average H/L is 50/35 the record high of 77 was set in 2020 the record low of 16 was set in 2003. The record rain fall of 2.53” was in 1966 the most snow fall of 4.0” was in 1894 the most snow on the ground was 7” in 1921. Last year the H/L was 59/36 and there was a trace of rain fall.

At the current time it is partly cloudy and 42 here in MBY. While the official rain fall amount of 0.67” was reported at GRR here in MBY I only recorded 0.52”

 

[Clinton]

A nice phase 7 look towards Thanksgiving weekend on the GEFS.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/OND/combined_image.png

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS hopefully is struggling with the pattern change and the storm on the 18th.  The Euro is showing a strong storm, CO/LO that may even fire up a severe weather outbreak in my neighborhood, the GFS had this scenario just yesterday. Split flow

  

The GFS wants to make Black Friday white Friday for some,  just bring on the moisture please!

 

 

IMO, there are 2 systems Thanksgiving Week that should deliver moisture for your area and a wintry threat for those north of you sometime around Thanksgiving.  Isn't nice to track something during the Holidays?  I'll likely be seeing moisture late next week and into the holiday week as troughs begin to slam into So Cal/4 corners.  This is a bonafide pattern that'll deliver the goods!

Speaking of the GOODS, the JMA is showcasing what I've been yearning to see for our Sub and my place out in AZ....The Blocking up Top and a strong Trough signal into CA/4 Corners from Week 2-4 is a "Win-Win" scenario for both regions!  Winter is Coming out of the Gates just when you want it to...Love seeing this in the modeling as we close out NOV.

Lets see how this all plays out as I see several LR clues that we should be heading into a colder pattern heading into the start of MET Winter.  The one caviat is how strong of a SER will we see as the PNA could play a big role, however, the high lat blocking and pressure patterns along the coasts of North America may become a stronger player.

Week 2...

 

Week 3-4...

 

30 day precip anomalies...

 

 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

IMO, there are 2 systems Thanksgiving Week that should deliver moisture for your area and a wintry threat for those north of you sometime around Thanksgiving.  Isn't nice to track something during the Holidays?  I'll likely be seeing moisture late next week and into the holiday week as troughs begin to slam into So Cal/4 corners.  This is a bonafide pattern that'll deliver the goods!

Speaking of the GOODS, the JMA is showcasing what I've been yearning to see for our Sub and my place out in AZ....The Blocking up Top and a strong Trough signal into CA/4 Corners from Week 2-4 is a "Win-Win" scenario for both regions!  Winter is Coming out of the Gates just when you want it to...Love seeing this in the modeling as we close out NOV.

Lets see how this all plays out as I see several LR clues that we should be heading into a colder pattern heading into the start of MET Winter.  The one caviat is how strong of a SER will we see as the PNA could play a big role, however, the high lat blocking and pressure patterns along the coasts of North America may become a stronger player.

Week 2...

 

Week 3-4...

 

30 day precip anomalies...

 

 

If the MJO can spend much of Dec in phase 8 it will be a fun ride!

[chescowxman]

Today should be our last mild day for at least the next week or so. Many spots across Chesco will touch the mid-60's today before another cold front crosses the area later. Mainly dry and chillier than normal weather should continue till at least the middle of next week with many of the higher spots in the county failing to escape the 40's for high temps for much of the next week. Unfortunately also continued dry!

Records for today: High 78 (1975) / Low 19 (1976) / Rain 2.04" (1962)

[tStacsh]

Next week looks fantastic to finish winter preparations.  

[Niko]

What beautiful weather we are having today w temps in the mid to upper 50s and lots of sunshine. Last nite a couple of rare thunderstorms moved into S MI. Very heavy rains we also reported but no severe weather. It was great hearing thunder again and seeing lightning. Reminded me of this very active severe weather season we encountered all summer. After a brief cooldown this weekend, next week looks gorgeous w lots of sunshine and mild temps w/ readings approaching possibly near 60F, maybe better.

[Niko]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Next week looks fantastic to finish winter preparations.  

So looking forward to it.