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January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard


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18 minutes ago, Pros3lyte said:

Anyway to include MI in this map?

More times then not Michigan and points east are left out of the maps posted and conversations which I completely understand because how big of area this forum covers and the amount of members from areas west of here. No offense to any of our members from areas south and west of IL but I do feel it would be nice to have a forum for just the Great Lakes area sometimes especially during the busy weather periods like what’s going on now. Me personally I usually only read posts from members from WI, IL, IN, OH and MI just because what’s happening weather wise out in other states really doesn’t effect MI often it seems.

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For Chicago on that 18z Euro, subtracting out the precip through Thursday still leaves about 2" precip for the big storm.  Ratios would be 10:1 at best for most of the time, and quite possibly less than that.  That much wet snow with strong winds would be a higher risk to the power grid than many of Chicago's past big dumps of snow.

In a March 1998 storm, I picked up about a foot of wet snow with gusts of 40+ mph.  Many people in the area lost power and some of the more rural areas didn't have it restored for 1-2 weeks.  

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

For Chicago on that 18z Euro, subtracting out the precip through Thursday still leaves about 2" precip for the big storm.  Ratios would be 10:1 at best for most of the time, and quite possibly less than that.  That much wet snow with strong winds would be a higher risk to the power grid than many of Chicago's past big dumps of snow.

In a March 1998 storm, I picked up about a foot of wet snow with gusts of 40+ mph.  Many people in the area lost power and some of the more rural areas didn't have it restored for 1-2 weeks.  

 

Man I remember that storm. what a mess 80/94 was shut down for days and everyone was without power. 

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8 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

Man I remember that storm. what a mess 80/94 was shut down for days and everyone was without power. 

Yeah it was something.  

Assuming no funny business on the 00z runs, think it's possible that LOT already hoists a winter storm watch with the overnight forecast.  If that doesn't happen then I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen with a special late morning update tomorrow.

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11 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Nam nailed this last storm at hour 84, pretty incredible for that model. Rule the winter nam!

Probably depends on what is being talked about, but it was awful with surface low track.  Many runs had it going toward Green Bay.

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36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Probably depends on what is being talked about, but it was awful with surface low track.  Many runs had it going toward Green Bay.

Should say totals; it picked that up early and was within 3” for my area. 

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The NAM gets warm air pretty far north.  The ICON does to a lesser extent, but then the big difference is that the ICON dynamically cools more quickly than the NAM and it just barfs snow in northern IL/IN after 18z Friday.

Never want to totally ignore the possibility of warm air surging farther north than progged, but nothing else is as drastic with that as the NAM right now.

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8 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

ICON goes crazy for southeast Michigan but then changes to SUPRISE!  (RAIN! )

Honestly I’m not getting my hopes up in the least. I fully expect this to turn into a rainstorm for us- or at least enough mixing to keep us at advisory criteria. The central part of the state is going to jackpot though for sure

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2 minutes ago, Pros3lyte said:

Honestly I’m not getting my hopes up in the least. I fully expect this to turn into a rainstorm for us- or at least enough mixing to keep us at advisory criteria. The central part of the state is going to jackpot though for sure

I hear ya!.  Same old story down here.  I guess we have the lakes to our east to thank for screwing us over everytime.

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