January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Slushy Inch]

It’s been looking sort of like a windstorm pattern. That last one bring advisory level winds for PS.

[Phil]

8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure that is going anywhere since the EPS shows the exact same pattern at the end of the run as we have now.     

It’s not going anywhere yet. That’s all marine air (and not even marine polar verbatim).

When that Canadian ridge eventually retrogrades westward into AK then things could get interesting. Until then, in all likelihood, nothing noteworthy will happen.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

16 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Pity it’s gonna torch so hard there won’t be much snow in the mountains.

After this warm and wet period there’s still some time left in the cold season for cold onshore flow. Probably will hold off though until late February into March.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

00z EURO shows much needed rain is on the way through the next 10 days. ️ 

 

 

bye bye Mtn snowpack.  oof

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It’s not going anywhere. That’s all marine air (and not even marine polar verbatim).

When that Canadian ridge eventually retrogrades westward into AK then things could get interesting. Until then nothing noteworthy will happen.

Would you agree Gem looks a little more interesting for the northwest? 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

After this warm and wet period there’s still some time left in the cold season for cold onshore flow. Probably will hold off though until late February into March.

Cold onshore flow in Feb (-PNA/+NPO) is more of a Niña thing. Need a northern jet for that. Probably won’t see that pattern this winter save maybe a few days.

[iFred]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

I found 7-11pm for 2016 blizzard (1/22) but also found the period where you were in the deformation band the next day (1/23).

And the bombing March 2nd 2018 nor’easter that backbuilt precip into Philly but screwed me. Still remember how hellaciously windy it was that day, Dulles gusted to 71mph.

Oh I remember that deformation band. I really wanted to go out driving in it but was forced to stay home.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Would you agree Gem looks a little more interesting for the northwest? 

It looks good at 500mb but it’s trickery. Look at the source of advection..just not going to get cold that way.

Even with MP airmass, it’s all spilling out into the Pacific.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is the wettest period from Nov 1 through now i have ever had here in 18 years and it is el nino. 47.6 inches of rain since Nov 1

[Phil]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Oh I remember that deformation band. I really wanted to go out driving in it but was forced to stay home.

Happy wife happy life?

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

It looks good at 500mb but it’s trickery. Look at the source of advection..just not going to get cold that way.

Even with MP airmass, it’s all spilling out into the Pacific.

I know you and Cascadia said that pattern won’t deliver. I would think this at least looks better 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Gem close to dislodging that Alaska vortex. Looks chilly.

GEM throws us a bone. 

Just now, Phil said:

That’s f***** nuts bro. Difficult for us to pull that off even with training convection in July/August. And impossible in January.  

And when it does happen it’s usually isolated areas with much less elsewhere. I think tropical storm Lee in 2011 is the last time we achieved that kind of 24hr total on a more regional scale.

Yeah, the moisture just trained over a very narrow area, basically Marion/Linn/Benton/Polk counties. There was massive localized flooding, but it was essentially ignored by the Portland media because in Oregon nothing really exists outside the PDX metro bubble. 

 

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

00z EURO shows much needed rain is on the way through the next 10 days. ️ 

 

 

That would be an incredible blessing. 

[MossMan]

Current snow pile update! 
And I ever so slightly bumped the dog statue while plowing last week…But enough to tip over. Rip old girl. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I know you and Cascadia said that pattern won’t deliver. I would think this at least looks better 

That pattern could give me snow, but it won't for anyone below 1000'. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That pattern could give me snow, but it won't for anyone below 1000'. 

At this point i could care less if i get snow i just want the mountains to get into a better pattern. 1000ft snow levels would be great and usually deliver snow anyway to my area.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The gem is dangerous, Classic wind storm pattern for here and 2 of the lows take a perfect track.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Current snow pile update! 
And I ever so slightly bumped the dog statue while plowing last week…But enough to tip over. Rip old girl. 

Melt-a-thon has started here but somehow still have ~ 6-7” on the ground. 8+ days of snowcover! I think it can last another 3 days or so but probably won’t make it to 2 weeks.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is the wettest period from Nov 1 through now i have ever had here in 18 years and it is el nino. 47.6 inches of rain since Nov 1

Lol. I've had like 6" in that period. Only about 100 miles from you as the crow flies

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Lol. I've had like 6" in that period. Only about 100 miles from you as the crow flies

If that far. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Melt-a-thon has started here but somehow still have ~ 6-7” on the ground. 8+ days of snowcover! I think it can last another 3 days or so but probably won’t make it to 2 weeks.

Nice porch

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

This ridge showing up is a good first step, correct?

[the_convergence_zone]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

At this point i could care less if i get snow i just want the mountains to get into a better pattern. 1000ft snow levels would be great and usually deliver snow anyway to my area.

The Olympics in particular are in pretty brutal shape with the North Cascades not far behind. Paradise and Stampede Pass are actually doing okay at around 90% of normal. 

I think the Olympics are just kind of f***ed with climate change, they have been struggling to reach 100% of normal even in good years. The Cascades seem to do a little better with easier access to continental cold air, especially the microclimate in the passes. 

[T-Town]

Some welcome sunshine this morning. 49 degrees. 

[the_convergence_zone]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The gem is dangerous, Classic wind storm pattern for here and 2 of the lows take a perfect track.

We're long overdue for a good windstorm...the number of potential uprooted trees with the soaked soil could really be something. 

[Slushy Inch]

GEPS run to run

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Some welcome sunshine this morning. 49 degrees. 

Very jealous. Dark and heavy drizzle here. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Here is comes!!

[Phil]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Nice porch

Thanks! But you probably won’t say that once the snow melts. Lots of green algae on the boards.  

Planning to use a cleaner to remove that this spring, but tbh I need to replace ~ 1/4th of the boards that are rotting away, and re-stain/seal the entire deck, otherwise I’m just putting a bandaid on a bullet wound.

Have been contemplating building an entirely new deck with composite instead of wood, but that would take many months if I did it myself. Will need to enlist help.

[ShawniganLake]

24 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I know you and Cascadia said that pattern won’t deliver. I would think this at least looks better 

I think it depends what you mean by “deliver”.  Maybe some cool onshore flow?  It would be pretty unusual for an Alaskan vortex to be dislodged and drop down into the NW, if you’re looking for arctic air.  

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This ridge showing up is a good first step, correct?

That looks like the beginning stages of a discontinuous retrogression towards -EPO/AK ridge. So yes.

If it’s going to get cold again, it will happen that way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are really grasping at straws right now. But that's OK.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think it depends what you mean by “deliver”.  Maybe some cool onshore flow?  It would be pretty unusual for an Alaskan vortex to be dislodged and drop down into the NW, if you’re looking for arctic air.  

I know it is rare. Either one would be nice.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, Phil said:

That looks like the beginning stages of a discontinuous retrogression towards -EPO/AK ridge. So yes.

If it’s going to get cold again, it will happen that way.

It is a long way out, but would be nice if it keep showing up. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are really grasping at straws right now. But that's OK.

GEPS improved is much more interesting than super long range gfs op

[T-Town]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Very jealous. Dark and heavy drizzle here. 

Soon enough you’ll be posting snow pics as I watch 40 degree rain out my window so it all evens out. 

[Phishy Wx]

good time to take a break and start your SPRING fitness regimes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My wife is going on a road trip to Southern Oregon this weekend. She is happy about the upcoming torching.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

good time to take a break and start your SPRING fitness regimes

Funny I just started P90X today after getting clearance from my doctor re: my back. Those steroid shots worked like a miracle.

Been a decade since I last did it, but damn have I fallen out of shape since then. Yikes. I’m sure some of it is due to how sedentary I’ve been since my injury, but I used to breeze through it like nothing, now I’m huffing and puffing halfway through. On the 1st workout too.

Cringey. And unacceptable. Super motivated now.  

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My wife is going on a road trip to Southern Oregon this weekend. She is happy about the upcoming torching.

i'm over this dud too, one week of winter ain't going to make up for a whole season of above normal temps and mostly rain.  just pull off the bandaid and hope for a mega Nina next winter

[MossMan]

43 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think it depends what you mean by “deliver”.  Maybe some cool onshore flow?  It would be pretty unusual for an Alaskan vortex to be dislodged and drop down into the NW, if you’re looking for arctic air.  

Any examples of a dislodge that gave us anything noteworthy?