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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

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New thread. At this point it sounds like rain for everyone south of Hope and nothing good in the long range. At least we can get our Skidoos polish, our tomatoes prepped, and our flowers freshened as spring is only a few days away.

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The ECMWF was better than the 6z, but not quite as good as the 0z.  Last night's graph cast was the best run yet so we'll see how that looks today.

At any rate well below normal temps at least through Thursday still.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I want to remind everyone, February is also a month were we can get some incredible snowstorms. This isn't over yet 😉🤗❄️🌨

SSW's have treated us very well lately and there should be one.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF was better than the 6z, but not quite as good as the 0z.  Last night's graph cast was the best run yet so we'll see how that looks today.

At any rate well below normal temps at least through Thursday still.

Still a chance this thing tracks from ocean shores through Olympia. That would smash the Puget Sound with a foot of snow!

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I want to remind everyone, February is also a month were we can get some incredible snowstorms. This isn't over yet 😉🤗❄️🌨

I absolutely expect snow in February now. Very good chance again this year.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Still a chance this thing tracks from ocean shores through Olympia. That would smash the Puget Sound with a foot of snow!

Tim says nope. And as much as I have disliked his thousands of bad maps he has posted over the last week he has unfortunately been very correct. 
Though I would LOVE to see the TIM model fail for this week. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Tim says nope. And as much as I have disliked his thousands of bad maps he has posted over the last week he has unfortunately been very correct. 
Though I would LOVE to see the TIM model fail for this week. 

I would truly love to fail as well if it meant you get buried!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just to recap here is the SSW that probably caused all of this.  Very persistent.

temp10anim.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Tim says nope. And as much as I have disliked his thousands of bad maps he has posted over the last week he has unfortunately been very correct. 
Though I would LOVE to see the TIM model fail for this week. 

This ECMWF came pretty close to tracking it south of Seattle.  This one is way to complex to call it yet.

BTW ZR is pretty cool in small amounts.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, T-Town said:

I noticed the same. Mid twenties with no wind feels balmy compared to the last couple days. 

The last couple of days were brutal for here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I don’t have high hopes for the rest of winter,  but who knows. I do have hope we see a decent spring, bearable summer, and pleasant autumn. Then we blow the doors off this thing next winter. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This ECMWF came pretty close to tracking it south of Seattle.  This one is way to complex to call it yet.

BTW ZR is pretty cool in small amounts.

I’m hoping we can delay the warm up down here until past midnight Tuesday and preserve one more day with a cold high. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

This ECMWF came pretty close to tracking it south of Seattle.  This one is way to complex to call it yet.

BTW ZR is pretty cool in small amounts.

Agreed. Enough to glaze everything is fun. No interest in a full on ice storm. 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This ECMWF came pretty close to tracking it south of Seattle.  This one is way to complex to call it yet.

BTW ZR is pretty cool in small amounts.

MOSSMAN has a good shot at this one

 I,d say 60% chance for a couple inches easy.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

MOSSMAN has a good shot at this one

 I,d say 60% chance for a couple inches easy.

Agreed.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Up to 19 after a low of 14. Still socked in the clouds though the sky is brightening quite a bit. 

B757160F-3E35-41A1-B383-BB30EF008DBD.jpeg

F2E194C0-4706-4768-9D22-9AB69F9C8F36.jpeg

1BB7227A-484C-45DD-8C6C-813EEBE40727.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t have high hopes for the rest of winter,  but who knows. I do have hope we see a decent spring, bearable summer, and pleasant autumn. Then we blow the doors off this thing next winter. 

We all know you could never quit the models even for a day, Andrew.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Potent airmass with some throwback vibes for our area. Wish it was longer and snowier.

Also,  as expected incredibly cold east of The Rockies… there’s a video going around with a water bottle that froze instantly in KC at -7F and -30F windchills. 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The last couple of days were brutal for here.

Yep. Lived here for 61 years so quite familiar with what’s normal and what isn’t. As others have noted, the last five years or so have been quite prolific for memorable winter weather events. This one keeps it going. 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m hoping we can delay the warm up down here until past midnight Tuesday and preserve one more day with a cold high. 

Hopefully we clear out nicely by tonight. With solid snow/sleet cover maybe we could see some really cold lows

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Pretty significant inversion setting up now. Santiam pass up to freezing after a low of -8. Looks like places east of here around 3500’ are at about freezing too. This was modeled pretty well. The inversion deepens significantly tomorrow some of those places will stay below freezing tomorrow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Hopefully we clear out nicely by tonight. With solid snow/sleet cover maybe we could see some really cold lows

Yeah if it’s still socked in the lows won’t drop much tonight. It seems current forecasts have tomorrow night as the coldest night.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can you imagine 100 years ago with zero warning for this cold? Wow must of been crazy. 

This is actually the first time ever I recall the PSE sending out an email asking people to conserve energy due to the cold. 

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I guess we will have to wait and see…but my guess is a decent ZR event here…will probably last longer than modeled like always. Maybe north of Everett manages a decent snow event at best is my guess on what happens this week. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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Burned about 2 times the amount of fire wood the past 3 days compared to normal. Only source of heat but even with these temps the stove kept the house at 72 running about 50% of what it can do. Love wood heat when done right.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is actually the first time ever I recall the PSE sending out an email asking people to conserve energy due to the cold. 

PSE is having technical issues:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pacific-northwest-gas-supply_n_65a329a7e4b06444b2230d94

Located near Covington / Black Diamond, WA. Elevation ~550 ft.

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I guess we will have to wait and see…but my guess is a decent ZR event here…will probably last longer than modeled like always. Maybe north of Everett manages a decent snow event at best is my guess on what happens this week. 

Going to be close. Even that low coming in 50 miles south of where is is shown now would have major changes to forecast. Crazy when you think about it.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Our power FINALLY just went out! Was starting to feel left out. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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