January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[iFred]

New thread. At this point it sounds like rain for everyone south of Hope and nothing good in the long range. At least we can get our Skidoos polish, our tomatoes prepped, and our flowers freshened as spring is only a few days away.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's cumming?

[Ken in Wood Village]

I want to remind everyone, February is also a month were we can get some incredible snowstorms. This isn't over yet 🌨

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF was better than the 6z, but not quite as good as the 0z.  Last night's graph cast was the best run yet so we'll see how that looks today.

At any rate well below normal temps at least through Thursday still.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I want to remind everyone, February is also a month were we can get some incredible snowstorms. This isn't over yet 🌨

SSW's have treated us very well lately and there should be one.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF was better than the 6z, but not quite as good as the 0z.  Last night's graph cast was the best run yet so we'll see how that looks today.

At any rate well below normal temps at least through Thursday still.

Still a chance this thing tracks from ocean shores through Olympia. That would smash the Puget Sound with a foot of snow!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I want to remind everyone, February is also a month were we can get some incredible snowstorms. This isn't over yet 🌨

I absolutely expect snow in February now. Very good chance again this year.

[MossMan]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Still a chance this thing tracks from ocean shores through Olympia. That would smash the Puget Sound with a foot of snow!

Tim says nope. And as much as I have disliked his thousands of bad maps he has posted over the last week he has unfortunately been very correct. 
Though I would LOVE to see the TIM model fail for this week. 

[TT-SEA]

Spectacular day.   Feels so much warmer without the wind of yesterday. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Tim says nope. And as much as I have disliked his thousands of bad maps he has posted over the last week he has unfortunately been very correct. 
Though I would LOVE to see the TIM model fail for this week. 

I would truly love to fail as well if it meant you get buried!

[snow_wizard]

Just to recap here is the SSW that probably caused all of this.  Very persistent.

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Spectacular day.   Feels so much warmer without the wind of yesterday. 

I noticed the same. Mid twenties with no wind feels balmy compared to the last couple days. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Tim says nope. And as much as I have disliked his thousands of bad maps he has posted over the last week he has unfortunately been very correct. 
Though I would LOVE to see the TIM model fail for this week. 

This ECMWF came pretty close to tracking it south of Seattle.  This one is way to complex to call it yet.

BTW ZR is pretty cool in small amounts.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, T-Town said:

I noticed the same. Mid twenties with no wind feels balmy compared to the last couple days. 

The last couple of days were brutal for here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don’t have high hopes for the rest of winter,  but who knows. I do have hope we see a decent spring, bearable summer, and pleasant autumn. Then we blow the doors off this thing next winter. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My cabin has been below zero for 72 hrs and below -10 for 50 hrs. Max low wa -29. Coldest reading I have had there. Person I know up there got down to -37!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This ECMWF came pretty close to tracking it south of Seattle.  This one is way to complex to call it yet.

BTW ZR is pretty cool in small amounts.

I’m hoping we can delay the warm up down here until past midnight Tuesday and preserve one more day with a cold high. 

[T-Town]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This ECMWF came pretty close to tracking it south of Seattle.  This one is way to complex to call it yet.

BTW ZR is pretty cool in small amounts.

Agreed. Enough to glaze everything is fun. No interest in a full on ice storm. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This ECMWF came pretty close to tracking it south of Seattle.  This one is way to complex to call it yet.

BTW ZR is pretty cool in small amounts.

MOSSMAN has a good shot at this one

 I,d say 60% chance for a couple inches easy.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

MOSSMAN has a good shot at this one

 I,d say 60% chance for a couple inches easy.

Agreed.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 19 after a low of 14. Still socked in the clouds though the sky is brightening quite a bit. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t have high hopes for the rest of winter,  but who knows. I do have hope we see a decent spring, bearable summer, and pleasant autumn. Then we blow the doors off this thing next winter. 

We all know you could never quit the models even for a day, Andrew.

[Cloud]

Potent airmass with some throwback vibes for our area. Wish it was longer and snowier.

Also,  as expected incredibly cold east of The Rockies… there’s a video going around with a water bottle that froze instantly in KC at -7F and -30F windchills. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can you imagine 100 years ago with zero warning for this cold? Wow must of been crazy. 

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The last couple of days were brutal for here.

Yep. Lived here for 61 years so quite familiar with what’s normal and what isn’t. As others have noted, the last five years or so have been quite prolific for memorable winter weather events. This one keeps it going. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Agreed.  

You had better warn mom. This might be a big event up there.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m hoping we can delay the warm up down here until past midnight Tuesday and preserve one more day with a cold high. 

Hopefully we clear out nicely by tonight. With solid snow/sleet cover maybe we could see some really cold lows

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty significant inversion setting up now. Santiam pass up to freezing after a low of -8. Looks like places east of here around 3500’ are at about freezing too. This was modeled pretty well. The inversion deepens significantly tomorrow some of those places will stay below freezing tomorrow. 

[Phishy Wx]

bring on the mid week storm

 

even looking like big snow > ice storm is possible now.  oof

[Doinko]

Back to 20 degrees, after about 33 hours below it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Hopefully we clear out nicely by tonight. With solid snow/sleet cover maybe we could see some really cold lows

Yeah if it’s still socked in the lows won’t drop much tonight. It seems current forecasts have tomorrow night as the coldest night.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can you imagine 100 years ago with zero warning for this cold? Wow must of been crazy. 

This is actually the first time ever I recall the PSE sending out an email asking people to conserve energy due to the cold. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

I guess we will have to wait and see…but my guess is a decent ZR event here…will probably last longer than modeled like always. Maybe north of Everett manages a decent snow event at best is my guess on what happens this week. 

[Weiner Warrior]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Burned about 2 times the amount of fire wood the past 3 days compared to normal. Only source of heat but even with these temps the stove kept the house at 72 running about 50% of what it can do. Love wood heat when done right.

[The Winter Warlock]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is actually the first time ever I recall the PSE sending out an email asking people to conserve energy due to the cold. 

PSE is having technical issues:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pacific-northwest-gas-supply_n_65a329a7e4b06444b2230d94

[SnowWillarrive]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can you imagine 100 years ago with zero warning for this cold? Wow must of been crazy. 

It’s going to be nuts when we get 5 feet of snow in DT Seattle. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I guess we will have to wait and see…but my guess is a decent ZR event here…will probably last longer than modeled like always. Maybe north of Everett manages a decent snow event at best is my guess on what happens this week. 

Going to be close. Even that low coming in 50 miles south of where is is shown now would have major changes to forecast. Crazy when you think about it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

It’s going to be nuts when we get 5 feet of snow in DT Seattle. 

It will happen again one day

 A 1880 event would be a national disaster. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our power FINALLY just went out! Was starting to feel left out.