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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

My first car/truck! 1975! It had a catalytic converter and a finely tuned 4bbl Holley Carb, so not bad emissions wise, ran amazing and I got the best car in the high school yearbook my sophomore year! Had that car from 1992 to 2009! 

IMG_2479.jpeg

Yeah the "best car in high school" honor went to the "new kid" in my high school.  He moved to the school district from South Africa and the parents were mega loaded even by the standards of where I lived.  Well, I lived in the "Golden Ghetto" which was a bunch of low rent apartments and condos on the edge of a very wealthy neighborhood.  As for the rest of the school district....My very first day of high school, I come rolling up to the front of the school in the bus and look out the window to see some gal shrieking over the brand new Mercedes with a big red bow on it.  And the parents just had to give it to her in front of the school.  🤮  Also lots of BMW's in the parking lot.

 

Any way, this South African kid typically rolled up in a classic, fully restored MG-B which was actually kinda funny because the kid played rugby and was built like a brick sh*t house.  It was kinda humorous to watch him get into and out of that thing.  Every once in a while he would drive up in daddy's museum quality restored classic Jaguar E-Type.  So yeah, he got "best car." 

My white 1980 VW Scirocco S with 120k miles did not make the cut.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Tomorrow is February 1st, should I take down my very dry and dead Christmas tree?

Must stay up until after the next snow! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

The 18z GFS is also entertaining the idea of a brief cool trough w/ marginal snowfall before the big bad warm comes in. Hopefully the ridging we get will be of the dry variety, so any mountain snow that might fall over the next couple weeks won't melt immediately. And that way we can score some 55/29 type days to tack onto the freezing counter.

00z GFS says no dice.

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15 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Tomorrow is February 1st, should I take down my very dry and dead Christmas tree?

We haven’t taken ours down yet either. :lol: Planning to do it this weekend, but that’s exactly what we said that last week.

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Really hoping for some less-depressing weather soon.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Feb 13, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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I think we can all agree this temperature map for the US is pretty astounding for Feb 1.  Totally insane.

1706821200-RWUjvSfdnDE.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS shows basically no precip for the next 10 days after tomorrow.  Not sure where we go from there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we can all agree this temperature map for the US is pretty astounding for Feb 1.  Totally insane.

1706821200-RWUjvSfdnDE.png

At least we’re finally below freezing for the first time in a week.

29 here but still 37 at DCA. So glad I don’t live in that UHI hellhole.

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Thankfully the month is over so the bleeding on the monthly average is over.  Looks like SEA came up with 41.6 for a -1.1 or -1.2 departure.

I will say I would rather come up with a 41.6 like we did as opposed to having most days within 5 degrees of normal though.  Pretty crazy month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

At least we’re finally below freezing for the first time in a week.

29.6 here but still 37 at DCA. So glad I don’t live in that UHI hellhole.

That's the way I feel about MBY vs SEA as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Probly looking at a +1.7F temp departure for the month.

Still haven't had a below normal January since the winter of 2016-17.

Fuckk this shitt.

And this, after breaking the ridiculous streak without consecutive sub-freezing highs earlier in the month.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Feb 13, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 hours ago, Eugene-5SW said:

I gotta say, I don’t really get all this nostalgia for the 1970s. They were AWFUL. There’s a reason it was called the “Malaise Era.”

High unemployment, urban blight, interest rates that would give a nosebleed to the pearl-clutchers who complain about today’s 6% mortgages (try 18%!), Vietnam, international tensions.

Automotive low point in history — ugly, bloated, badly-built cars with huge, inefficient engines that ran terribly, got lousy MPG, and spewed obnoxious smog despite emission controls that sapped their power output to a fraction of what they were capable of.

And don’t even get me started on the fashions. Long, greasy hair with muttonchop sideburns and bushy porn-stashes — and that was just the women. Bell-bottoms, platform shoes, polyester leisure suits, lapels out to here — even as a teenager, I knew that sh*t was just wrong.

Plus, I had a rough time as a teenager in the ‘70s. I was a geeky kid who got picked on a lot. Everything changed with the ‘80s when I went to college.

So yeah, you can keep your ‘70s!

The early 70s were good, but after that everything fell apart.  The weather kind of mirrored that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

We need mountain snow. Im scared for this summer 

I'm definitely low confidence on having a cool / wet period to get the mountains back on track.  This Nino manifested in a bad way for mountain snow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like 38.0 and a -2.2 departure for BLI.  I guess a positive spin would be two of the past three Januarys averaged below normal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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A bunch of frosty nights on the ECMWF.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Anti Marine Layer said:

Southern California is stealing the storm track from the PNW again

Looks like the Nino is finally going to get you down there.  At least we will be running on the cool side.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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If the ECMWF verifies Feb will get off to a reasonably chilly start.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The interesting thing about the Graph Cast is it shows a pattern favorable for keeping things cool even at day 10.  By day 10  the ECMWF operational obviously wants to go somewhere warmer.  They are very different over the NW Pacific which has big implications for us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 10:40 p.m. PST Wednesday 31 January 2024.

Discussion.

The following areas set or tied a daily maximum temperature record 
on January 31, 2024: 

Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) 
New record of 7.7 
Old record of 7.5 set in 2005 
Records in this area have been kept since 1974 

Gibsons Area (Sechelt Aut) 
New record of 16.1 
Old record of 12.5 set in 1992 
Records in this area have been kept since 1949 

Gonzales Point Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
Tied record of 13.5 set in 2020 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Port Alberni Area (Port Alberni (AUT)) 
Tied record of 12.8 set in 1935 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Prince George Area (Prince George Airport Auto) 
New record of 13.2 
Old record of 11.7 set in 1935 
Records in this area have been kept since 1912 

Puntzi Mountain Area (Puntzi Mountain (AUT)) 
New record of 9.8 
Old record of 6.5 set in 2005 
Records in this area have been kept since 1959 

Quesnel Area (Quesnel Airport Auto) 
New record of 13.5 
Old record of 12.2 set in 1935 
Records in this area have been kept since 1893 

Sechelt Area (Sechelt Aut) 
New record of 16.1 
Old record of 15.0 set in 1960 
Records in this area have been kept since 1956 

Victoria Harbour Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
Tied record of 13.5 set in 2020 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

West Vancouver Area (West Vancouver Aut) 
New record of 17.9 
Old record of 15.0 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1976 

Williams Lake Area (Williams Lake A) 
New record of 10.3 
Old record of 10.0 set in 1962 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

 

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I’m pretty resolved to winter going out with a whimper. I think it just comes with the territory of living in NW lowlands that we’ll occasionally endure a strong el niño winter every decade or so. My glass half full take is that we appear to possibly be headed for the rare strong el niño to moderate la niña transition over a single year. Compared to previous periods where it wasn’t uncommon for the span between la nina’s stretched out to five years or more, this situation could be a lot worse. Take out the relatively short-lived Jan arctic influx and this has been a very archetypal el niño winter. It’s a nice reminder that these things do matter, and our pessimism going into a strong el niño should be reversed going into a la niña (especially back to back, though I’m still unclear if there is any real scientific relevance to the sudden reversal that amplifies the weather effects). I just hope we see a good Nor’easter before the season is out. I miss following those from afar. 

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Will lightning strike twice this winter?

1708149600-F1l9HFWI5UQ.png

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just noticed Maple Creek Saskatchewan hit 70F yesterday.  They put up a 115F temp spread in January.  

Not sure what happened there in 1935, but they could have done something similar.  Pretty crazy.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Andstorm said:

Is this split showing up elsewhere? 

The ECMWF is showing some signs of an SSW on the 10mb zonal wind forecast.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Ended up with a 54/44 day for the last day of January. The high was in the overnight hours when some mild east winds kicked in. Otherwise mostly cloudy with showers at times, and temps around 50 much of the afternoon yesterday.

I was surprised to see PDX dodge the bulk of the warmth yet again, and only put up a 51/45 day.

Looks like PDX and VUO both ended up with -1.6F departures for January. Both of those stations deftly avoided much in the way of late month torching. 

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Huge change on the ECMWF vs the 0z.  Central Pacific heights much higher and NW Pacific much lower.  Heading the right way.

1707566400-zOXggyrse24.png

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No doubt we're getting much less warning on this possible SSW compared to the last one.  There was no sign of this a few days ago.  Now a lot of members are on board.  

The GFS is fully on board for the warming, but still unsure about the PV splitting.  Things might get interesting later in the month.

Thu 01 Feb 2024

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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