Stormgeek Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 Well, if we (just north of MSP core) are not going to get crushed, might as well take the precip and proceed to spring. Not like we had any winter anyway... Nonetheless, looks like this is going to be a mess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 23 Author Report Share Posted March 23 NAM is getting even more juiced, I end up with 16" at the end. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 Some models moved the rain/snow line slightly north, others moved it enough south where I am within a stones throw of being on the snowy side. Nothing like living on the edge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 23 Author Report Share Posted March 23 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Some models moved the rain/snow line slightly north, others moved it enough south where I am within a stones throw of being on the snowy side. Nothing like living on the edge. It seems like that's the position I've been in for nearly every storm since 2016, and most of the time it didn't end up working out. Whether it be on the wrong side of a sharp cutoff or on the rainy side of a rain/snow line. I'm selfishly glad that I've been sitting pretty for most of the model runs on this storm. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 Looks like I'll get atleast 12 hours of moderate-heavy snow before the changeover. I just went out and fired up the snowblower. First time since last winter lol. But I got it going just in case, although the snow might be too wet and heavy for it. We'll see! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 Euro looks like the ICON here. Ok then. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 19 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said: It seems like that's the position I've been in for nearly every storm since 2016, and most of the time it didn't end up working out. Whether it be on the wrong side of a sharp cutoff or on the rainy side of a rain/snow line. I'm selfishly glad that I've been sitting pretty for most of the model runs on this storm. I hear ya. Reminds me of the PNW days where for the majority of winter storms you are on either side of freezing. So many busts where we were just a degree or two too warm. But the occasional time where the stars aligned and we ended up being on the right side of things it was pretty dang fun. Hopefully this time around it will be the latter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 Nice little improvement on the 12z Euro. It keeps us so freaking close to staying as all snow. Look at that run-to-run change on the surface temps! Thing of beauty. One more shift like this one down the homestretch and this storm might just still have a shot at pulling it off here. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 Really nice jump on the 12z EPS mean and Control too. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 I absolutely do not envy the forecasters in Minneapolis... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 ^Bit of a jump here too. NWS just upgraded me to a warning but have lowered totals to 5-8" and now only runs through 4am Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 Eric Snodgrass recently gave some praise to the ECMWF AI model with how it seemingly nailed the evolution of this system pretty well. The 12z run of that model shows us only getting above freezing around 7PM before we drop back down below around 1AM Monday. Overall it's running about 2-3 degrees colder for tomorrow than it's previous runs. As alluded to earlier, in a setup like this, that small amount can make all the difference. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Eric Snodgrass recently gave some praise to the ECMWF AI model with how it seemingly nailed the evolution of this system pretty well. The 12z run of that model shows us only getting above freezing around 7PM before we drop back down below around 1AM Monday. Overall it's running about 2-3 degrees colder for tomorrow than it's previous runs. As alluded to earlier, in a setup like this, that small amount can make all the difference. I watch Eric daily. The AI EURO certainly saw the overall pattern development. But all the long range models stunk it up for my area into Missouri. Huge dryslot now clear on all models. Snodgrass explained that the east coast system cutting off the gulf flow because of nw flow behind the east coast sys. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 NOAA/NWS upping the sleet/rain numbers while lowering the totals for my area a bit based on some of the model runs... 18Z GFS data is coming in right now I see. 18Z GFS looking good for Brookings... not much change from past runs. Unfortunately Sioux Falls is still solidly in the mixed precip area. My mother lives in Lake county, which is in the bullseye on this model, on an acreage. She'll be stuck at home a day or two if this one pans out. RDPS looks better for Sioux Falls with south shift on 18Z, ICON has us in the bullseye but has reduced totals for everywhere compared to a day or two ago, and NAM has the storm taking a more north track with the bullseye over Watertown but still much better than it's 12Z run which quite frankly sucked and likely contributed to NWS's recent estimate lowering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 A Spring day on deck. High of 68* Wind 20-30 Chance of rain 20% Fire conditions and warnings in effect for NW Texas. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 2 hours ago, sholomar said: NOAA/NWS upping the sleet/rain numbers while lowering the totals for my area a bit based on some of the model runs... 18Z GFS data is coming in right now I see. 18Z GFS looking good for Brookings... not much change from past runs. Unfortunately Sioux Falls is still solidly in the mixed precip area. My mother lives in Lake county, which is in the bullseye on this model, on an acreage. She'll be stuck at home a day or two if this one pans out. RDPS looks better for Sioux Falls with south shift on 18Z, ICON has us in the bullseye but has reduced totals for everywhere compared to a day or two ago, and NAM has the storm taking a more north track with the bullseye over Watertown but still much better than it's 12Z run which quite frankly sucked and likely contributed to NWS's recent estimate lowering. Every one of these models has me at 12+ but this also includes a couple inches on backside wraparound. NWS forecast is calling for 5-8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 18z Euro continues to look better for here. Temps are again about 2-5 degrees colder than the 06z run. In fact, near Sioux City has had an almost -10 degree swing in temperatures when comparing to the 00z run. We now stay mostly as snow and only have rain very early in the morning on Monday. I've been comparing totals by 10AM Monday since that is when I'd have to leave for the airport and the Euro has moved from 2.6 inches to 9.6 inches over the past four runs for that timeframe. Total ends up at a little over 12 inches while the NWS is still only calling for 2-6 here. It'll be interesting to see if they bite after the 00z runs tonight. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 I’m on the edge of a Winter Storm Watch. NWS Hastings says they are monitoring the NAM and Euro that are showing the higher amounts through Central Nebraska. They said amounts may be increased in upcoming forecasts, and possible addition of more counties in watches or warnings are possible. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 Man, what a nice shift from last night's 00z to the 18z EPS. Talk about a last minute miracle. Hope it's right. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 Good start for Brookings early on. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnesotaSnow Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 @hawkstwelvethanks for posting these model run comparisons to get a good handle on the trends. I really have no idea what to expect here riding the northern edge of the changeover 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: Man, what a nice shift from last night's 00z to the 18z EPS. Talk about a last minute miracle. Hope it's right. Nice increases around here also. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 18z ECMWF AI model now keeps Sioux Falls at or below freezing through the entire event. The last 00z run had us going above freezing at 1PM tomorrow and not getting back below until 7PM Monday. Big improvement. I'll be interested to see how this model performs on temps. I haven't really paid close attention to it on that parameter just yet to know how it does. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 @hawkstwelve thanks for the updates. Looks a bit better for the TC as well. Curious what the 00z runs will like and if the NWS adjusts their forecast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 To be fair, there are also models out there like the 00z FV3 that send the rain/snow line way north. Yuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 24 Author Report Share Posted March 24 I'm driving home from a hockey game in Fargo right now, and the snow has started way earlier than expected. I'm currently just passed Fergus Falls and it's actually pretty moderate. 24°F. 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 00z GFS made just enough of a shift south that almost my entire county now remains on the snow side of the line. Still shows some of it falling as freezing rain but NWS FSD doesn't seem to think that will be too much of an issue. Man oh man, this is going to be cutting it so close. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z GFS made just enough of a shift south that almost my entire county now remains on the snow side of the line. Still shows some of it falling as freezing rain but NWS FSD doesn't seem to think that will be too much of an issue. Man oh man, this is going to be cutting it so close. Yep. I’m either on the edge or will get drilled. It may be a difference of 15-20 miles. Still talking gusts to 55 mph. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 00z CMC continuing with a fairly clear southward trend over the past few runs. Not as good for our MN folks but better for me and CentralNeb's areas. Pivotal weather maps actually show a spot with 22 inches within my county, just a smidge off to my NW. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 24 Author Report Share Posted March 24 6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z CMC continuing with a fairly clear southward trend over the past few runs. Not as good for our MN folks but better for me and CentralNeb's areas. Pivotal weather maps actually show a spot with 22 inches within my county, just a smidge off to my NW. That's... Actually terrible for me. I'd like to not have to settle for 8" in late March. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 24 Author Report Share Posted March 24 I'm just gonna ride the NAM since that's the one model that still absolutely drills me. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 Looking to be a garbage sleet/freezing rain storm... Usually what happens. . Weather models disappointing as usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 Winter Storm Watch. Next county west is Blizzard Warning. Might get put in this later today, depending on models. Would be the 3rd blizzard this season. We can go several years without even one 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 06 NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 06 Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 24 Author Report Share Posted March 24 12 hours into the 12Z HRRR run so far and I'm not a fan of it. Not one bit. Keeps the moisture all down towards the rain/snow line and keeps the snow up here light. Unfortunately, current radar made me worried that that would happen before this run even began. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnesotaSnow Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 2 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said: 12 hours into the 12Z HRRR run so far and I'm not a fan of it. Not one bit. Keeps the moisture all down towards the rain/snow line and keeps the snow up here light. Unfortunately, current radar made me worried that that would happen before this run even began. The hi-res short term guidance has been brutal for central and western Minnesota, those areas looked locked in for 12-18”. NW Wisconsin might reel this one in. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 9 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said: 12 hours into the 12Z HRRR run so far and I'm not a fan of it. Not one bit. Keeps the moisture all down towards the rain/snow line and keeps the snow up here light. Unfortunately, current radar made me worried that that would happen before this run even began. I'm not a fan either. There is some decently heavy precip that falls here tonight but it's all as rain, with the rain/snow line a full county to my north. That would suck. I think for everyone's sake, let's just throw this model out. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 24 Author Report Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: I'm not a fan either. There is some decently heavy precip that falls here tonight but it's all as rain, with the rain/snow line a full county to my north. That would suck. I think for everyone's sake, let's just throw this model out. That dry slot too... Ick. Can we just keep the 3km NAM? 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 Hi-Res models remain mostly dry here except for the RAP while the globels have gotten slightly wetter. One thing that's a given is the wind. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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