3/24-3/27 Midwest/Plains Colorado Low(s)

[Stormgeek]

Well, if we (just north of MSP core) are not going to get crushed, might as well take the precip and proceed to spring. Not like we had any winter anyway...  Nonetheless, looks like this is going to be a mess.

[Minny_Weather]

NAM is getting even more juiced, I end up with 16" at the end.

[hawkstwelve]

Some models moved the rain/snow line slightly north, others moved it enough south where I am within a stones throw of being on the snowy side. Nothing like living on the edge. 

[Minny_Weather]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some models moved the rain/snow line slightly north, others moved it enough south where I am within a stones throw of being on the snowy side. Nothing like living on the edge. 

It seems like that's the position I've been in for nearly every storm since 2016, and most of the time it didn't end up working out. Whether it be on the wrong side of a sharp cutoff or on the rainy side of a rain/snow line.

I'm selfishly glad that I've been sitting pretty for most of the model runs on this storm. 

[james1976]

Looks like I'll get atleast 12 hours of moderate-heavy snow before the changeover. I just went out and fired up the snowblower. First time since last winter lol. But I got it going just in case, although the snow might be too wet and heavy for it. We'll see!

[CentralNebWeather]

Euro looks like the ICON here. Ok then. 

[hawkstwelve]

19 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

It seems like that's the position I've been in for nearly every storm since 2016, and most of the time it didn't end up working out. Whether it be on the wrong side of a sharp cutoff or on the rainy side of a rain/snow line.

I'm selfishly glad that I've been sitting pretty for most of the model runs on this storm. 

I hear ya. Reminds me of the PNW days where for the majority of winter storms you are on either side of freezing. So many busts where we were just a degree or two too warm. But the occasional time where the stars aligned and we ended up being on the right side of things it was pretty dang fun. Hopefully this time around it will be the latter. 

[hawkstwelve]

Nice little improvement on the 12z Euro. It keeps us so freaking close to staying as all snow. Look at that run-to-run change on the surface temps! Thing of beauty.

One more shift like this one down the homestretch and this storm might just still have a shot at pulling it off here.

[hawkstwelve]

Really nice jump on the 12z EPS mean and Control too.

[Stormgeek]

I absolutely do not envy the forecasters in Minneapolis...

[james1976]

^Bit of a jump here too. NWS just upgraded me to a warning but have lowered totals to 5-8" and now only runs through 4am Monday.

[hawkstwelve]

Eric Snodgrass recently gave some praise to the ECMWF AI model with how it seemingly nailed the evolution of this system pretty well. The 12z run of that model shows us only getting above freezing around 7PM before we drop back down below around 1AM Monday. Overall it's running about 2-3 degrees colder for tomorrow than it's previous runs. As alluded to earlier, in a setup like this, that small amount can make all the difference.

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Eric Snodgrass recently gave some praise to the ECMWF AI model with how it seemingly nailed the evolution of this system pretty well. The 12z run of that model shows us only getting above freezing around 7PM before we drop back down below around 1AM Monday. Overall it's running about 2-3 degrees colder for tomorrow than it's previous runs. As alluded to earlier, in a setup like this, that small amount can make all the difference.

I watch Eric daily. The AI EURO certainly  saw the overall  pattern development.  But all the long  range models stunk it up for my area into Missouri.  Huge dryslot now clear on all models.   Snodgrass explained  that the east coast system  cutting off the gulf flow because  of nw flow  behind the east coast sys.

[sholomar]

NOAA/NWS upping the sleet/rain numbers while lowering the totals for my area a bit based on some of the model runs... 18Z GFS data is coming in right now I see.  18Z GFS looking good for Brookings... not much change from past runs.  Unfortunately Sioux Falls is still solidly in the mixed precip area.   My mother lives in Lake county, which is in the bullseye on this model, on an acreage. She'll be stuck at home a day or two if this one pans out.

RDPS looks better for Sioux Falls with south shift on 18Z, ICON has us in the bullseye but has reduced totals for everywhere compared to a day or two ago, and NAM has the storm taking a more north track with the bullseye over Watertown but still much better than it's 12Z run which quite frankly sucked and likely contributed to NWS's recent estimate lowering.

 

 

 

 

 

[Andie]

A Spring day on deck. 
High of 68*
Wind 20-30
Chance of rain 20%

Fire conditions and warnings in effect for NW Texas.  

[james1976]

2 hours ago, sholomar said:

NOAA/NWS upping the sleet/rain numbers while lowering the totals for my area a bit based on some of the model runs... 18Z GFS data is coming in right now I see.  18Z GFS looking good for Brookings... not much change from past runs.  Unfortunately Sioux Falls is still solidly in the mixed precip area.   My mother lives in Lake county, which is in the bullseye on this model, on an acreage. She'll be stuck at home a day or two if this one pans out.

RDPS looks better for Sioux Falls with south shift on 18Z, ICON has us in the bullseye but has reduced totals for everywhere compared to a day or two ago, and NAM has the storm taking a more north track with the bullseye over Watertown but still much better than it's 12Z run which quite frankly sucked and likely contributed to NWS's recent estimate lowering.

 

 

 

 

 

Every one of these models has me at 12+ but this also includes a couple inches on backside wraparound. NWS forecast is calling for 5-8.

[hawkstwelve]

18z Euro continues to look better for here. Temps are again about 2-5 degrees colder than the 06z run. In fact, near Sioux City has had an almost -10 degree swing in temperatures when comparing to the 00z run. We now stay mostly as snow and only have rain very early in the morning on Monday. I've been comparing totals by 10AM Monday since that is when I'd have to leave for the airport and the Euro has moved from 2.6 inches to 9.6 inches over the past four runs for that timeframe. Total ends up at a little over 12 inches while the NWS is still only calling for 2-6 here. It'll be interesting to see if they bite after the 00z runs tonight.

[CentralNebWeather]

I’m on the edge of a Winter Storm Watch. NWS Hastings says they are monitoring the NAM and Euro that are showing the higher amounts through Central Nebraska. They said amounts may be increased in upcoming forecasts, and possible addition of more counties in watches or warnings are possible. 

[hawkstwelve]

Man, what a nice shift from last night's 00z to the 18z EPS. Talk about a last minute miracle. Hope it's right.

[sholomar]

Good start for Brookings early on.

[MinnesotaSnow]

@hawkstwelvethanks for posting these model run comparisons to get a good handle on the trends. I really have no idea what to expect here riding the northern edge of the changeover

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Man, what a nice shift from last night's 00z to the 18z EPS. Talk about a last minute miracle. Hope it's right.

Nice increases around here also. 

[hawkstwelve]

18z ECMWF AI model now keeps Sioux Falls at or below freezing through the entire event. The last 00z run had us going above freezing at 1PM tomorrow and not getting back below until 7PM Monday. Big improvement.

I'll be interested to see how this model performs on temps. I haven't really paid close attention to it on that parameter just yet to know how it does.

[james1976]

@hawkstwelve thanks for the updates. Looks a bit better for the TC as well. Curious what the 00z runs will like and if the NWS adjusts their forecast. 

[hawkstwelve]

To be fair, there are also models out there like the 00z FV3 that send the rain/snow line way north. Yuck.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm driving home from a hockey game in Fargo right now, and the snow has started way earlier than expected. I'm currently just passed Fergus Falls and it's actually pretty moderate. 24°F.

[hawkstwelve]

00z GFS made just enough of a shift south that almost my entire county now remains on the snow side of the line. Still shows some of it falling as freezing rain but NWS FSD doesn't seem to think that will be too much of an issue. 

Man oh man, this is going to be cutting it so close.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GFS made just enough of a shift south that almost my entire county now remains on the snow side of the line. Still shows some of it falling as freezing rain but NWS FSD doesn't seem to think that will be too much of an issue. 

Man oh man, this is going to be cutting it so close.

Yep. I’m either on the edge or will get drilled. It may be a difference of 15-20 miles. Still talking gusts to 55 mph. 

[hawkstwelve]

00z CMC continuing with a fairly clear southward trend over the past few runs. Not as good for our MN folks but better for me and CentralNeb's areas. Pivotal weather maps actually show a spot with 22 inches within my county, just a smidge off to my NW.

[Minny_Weather]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z CMC continuing with a fairly clear southward trend over the past few runs. Not as good for our MN folks but better for me and CentralNeb's areas. Pivotal weather maps actually show a spot with 22 inches within my county, just a smidge off to my NW.

That's... Actually terrible for me. I'd like to not have to settle for 8" in late March.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm just gonna ride the NAM since that's the one model that still absolutely drills me.

[sholomar]

Looking to be a garbage sleet/freezing rain storm... Usually what happens. . Weather models disappointing as usual.

[CentralNebWeather]

Winter Storm Watch. Next county west is Blizzard Warning. Might get put in this later today, depending on models. Would be the 3rd blizzard this season.  We can go several years without even one  

[CentralNebWeather]

06 NAM 

[CentralNebWeather]

06 Euro 

[Minny_Weather]

12 hours into the 12Z HRRR run so far and I'm not a fan of it. Not one bit. Keeps the moisture all down towards the rain/snow line and keeps the snow up here light.

Unfortunately, current radar made me worried that that would happen before this run even began.

[MinnesotaSnow]

2 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

12 hours into the 12Z HRRR run so far and I'm not a fan of it. Not one bit. Keeps the moisture all down towards the rain/snow line and keeps the snow up here light.

Unfortunately, current radar made me worried that that would happen before this run even began.

The hi-res short term guidance has been brutal for central and western Minnesota, those areas looked locked in for 12-18”. NW Wisconsin might reel this one in. 

[hawkstwelve]

9 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

12 hours into the 12Z HRRR run so far and I'm not a fan of it. Not one bit. Keeps the moisture all down towards the rain/snow line and keeps the snow up here light.

Unfortunately, current radar made me worried that that would happen before this run even began.

I'm not a fan either. There is some decently heavy precip that falls here tonight but it's all as rain, with the rain/snow line a full county to my north. That would suck.

I think for everyone's sake, let's just throw this model out.

[Minny_Weather]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm not a fan either. There is some decently heavy precip that falls here tonight but it's all as rain, with the rain/snow line a full county to my north. That would suck.

I think for everyone's sake, let's just throw this model out.

That dry slot too... Ick. Can we just keep the 3km NAM?

[Clinton]

Hi-Res models remain mostly dry here except for the RAP while the globels have gotten slightly wetter.  One thing that's a given is the wind.