Clinton Posted March 28 Report Share Posted March 28 It's looking more and more likely that a strong storm will bring a threat of severe weather along with heavy rain and potentially a Winter side depending on the amount of phasing that occurs. Currently the GFS has the upper level low closing off over NE Iowa and the Euro is more progressive both solutions bring beneficial rains to the center of the nation where moisture is needed badly. Lets discuss. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 28 Report Share Posted March 28 Easter Sunday is looking wet and cold around here which is NOT a common theme, in fact, the last time it rain and the temp held in the 60's was wayy back in 1999 (4/4/99). Ever since I've been coming out here, I remember enjoying Easter SUN with sunny skies and warm temps. Not gonna happen this year. I'm ok with, bc I'll be baking a Turkey and some Lamb. 0z Euro has some training storms across the I-80 corridor....this will be a common theme heading into APR/MAY, eventually lifting farther north later in Spring then Summer months. Troughs are going to be plentiful and this will be a signature storm every 45 days or so. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 28 Report Share Posted March 28 More severe wx around April Fool's! Just like last year. I feel like this Spring is bringing more frequent chances of it. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 28 Author Report Share Posted March 28 GFS and Euro still along ways apart. GFS showing a very wet and phased storm on it's most recent run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 28 Report Share Posted March 28 Looks like I'm sitting out of this one. Have fun, people down south. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 28 Report Share Posted March 28 I saw this from CSU 1 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted March 29 Report Share Posted March 29 12 hours ago, Iceresistance said: I saw this from CSU Here is the CIPS analogs, which are similar to the SPC. At least for my area, it looks like mostly long straight hodographs, which will favor splitting storms. Lapse rates are excellent and the temperatures aloft are cool so large hail is probably the biggest hazard. It looks like an initial discrete supercell phase near or just east of here, following by a transition to QLCS stuff. Should be a potentially fun event at least. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 29 Report Share Posted March 29 GFS and Euro are way apart still. Since the Euro is much worse here, I'm assuming it will be more correct than the GFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 29 Report Share Posted March 29 5 hours ago, bud2380 said: GFS and Euro are way apart still. Since the Euro is much worse here, I'm assuming it will be more correct than the GFS. The GFS is on its own. The Euro, GDPS, and ICON are all south and weaker. Once again, I'm hoping we can squeeze a half inch out of this system. It looks dry for a while after this. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 30 Author Report Share Posted March 30 The NAM isn't in reliable range yet but appears to be in line and phase like the GFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 30 Author Report Share Posted March 30 Most models are showing some phasing between the northern and southern streams but don't agree on the track of the low. The Euro remains the most progressive and the GFS is the furthest north and would produce some severe weather in my area. Regardless all models are showing some beneficial rainfall for mby. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 30 Report Share Posted March 30 2 hours ago, Clinton said: Most models are showing some phasing between the northern and southern streams but don't agree on the track of the low. The Euro remains the most progressive and the GFS is the furthest north and would produce some severe weather in my area. Regardless all models are showing some beneficial rainfall for mby. This setup looks to be golden for your area and most of the MW/OHV.... @OttumwaSnomow should do real good...this is the epitome of the IA/MO warm front scenario at play which he discusses on here. Good luck bud! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 30 Report Share Posted March 30 As expected, the GFS just completely caved to the south and less-amped models. Rats! 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 30 Report Share Posted March 30 West trend on the GEFS 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 31 Author Report Share Posted March 31 The SPC shifted the severe threat a little to the SE in my area tomorrow however Reed Timmer seems to think that eastern Kansas and western MO are right in the thick of things. The best news is that 1 to 3 inches of rain seems likely for my area Short-range models are showing a number of supercells capable of all hazards developing from the nose of the low-level jet and warm frontal zone near KC into northern MO and off the dry line in central/eastern Oklahoma. The models are trending a bit more significant with this severe weather event. The severe threat shifts east on Tuesday with another enhanced risk. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 31 Report Share Posted March 31 14 minutes ago, Clinton said: The SPC shifted the severe threat a little to the SE in my area tomorrow however Reed Timmer seems to think that eastern Kansas and western MO are right in the thick of things. The best news is that 1 to 3 inches of rain seems likely for my area Short-range models are showing a number of supercells capable of all hazards developing from the nose of the low-level jet and warm frontal zone near KC into northern MO and off the dry line in central/eastern Oklahoma. The models are trending a bit more significant with this severe weather event. The severe threat shifts east on Tuesday with another enhanced risk. 2024, year of the upgrades!! Even the outlooks today/tomorrow are somewhat expanded. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 31 Report Share Posted March 31 Currently up in Flagstaff... Big Bear in So Cal is doing real good...with more on the way today into tomorrow... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31 Report Share Posted March 31 The snow aspect of this is getting slightly interesting. Some energy will be diving in from Canada, which looks like it will cause it to slow down and perhaps even retrograde a bit in the Lakes. Obviously take the clown maps with a grain of salt at this point, but if you're in the Lakes and even back to Chicago and you thought that we were done with snow, think again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 31 Report Share Posted March 31 Models are all over with regard to rain totals for my area... anything from 0.2" to 1.2". Given the setup, with a lot of convection to the south, I'd lean toward the low end of the range. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31 Report Share Posted March 31 Granted this is 10:1 so have to cut it down by a decent amount, but still not the most welcome sight after all the warm spells we've had. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 31 Report Share Posted March 31 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Granted this is 10:1 so have to cut it down by a decent amount, but still not the most welcome sight after all the warm spells we've had. I kind of gave up on the snow yesterday and now looking at 18z all kuchera outputs showing up to a foot of snow lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 31 Report Share Posted March 31 Green Bay AFD The main timeframe of concern with this system however, is Tuesday night through Wednesday. A strong secondary shortwave will dig into the Upper Plains and western Great Lakes, which may phase with the current surface low and lead to some intensification of this system. The first and higher confidence concern with this system will be wind gusts. Soundings bring between 40 to 50 knot winds to 850, with fairly favorable conditions to mix to the surface by Wednesday afternoon. This would make for widespread gusts around 30 to 40 mph gusts over land and possibly higher over marine. The second concern would be a potential increase in precipitation, as the system possibly retrogrades and brings the higher qpf and dynamics back to the region. In the worst case, this would support significant snowfall along the Lake Michigan shoreline and downstream of the Bay of Green Bay. Delta-T values aren`t that impressive by themselves (6-10 C or so) but could certainly enhance any precipitation given the dynamics in this system. This would be the worst case and only the GFS has this solution for now, so the current forecast calls for lesser amounts of snow for the time being. It bears stressing however, that given the winds during this time period, any snow will cause travel impacts due to low visibility from blowing and drifting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 1 Author Report Share Posted April 1 18z Euro beefed up rainfall amounts for mby also looks like most of the sever weather will be just to my SE. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 NAM/3K NAM showing 12+ in many areas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 NAM snowfall (still snowing on 3K) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 What I would probably do at this point is take some kind of a blend between the Kuchera maps and the snow depth maps. Maybe like 70% Kuchera and 30% snow depth. The reason being that the depth maps will tend to be flawed in situations like this with decent rates and marginal temps (depth maps will tend to underestimate). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 No big changes on tomorrow evening. Dry line storms appear likely with large hail being the primary threat. My best guess on timing is 6 to 9 PM. We will see! 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: What I would probably do at this point is take some kind of a blend between the Kuchera maps and the snow depth maps. Maybe like 70% Kuchera and 30% snow depth. The reason being that the depth maps will tend to be flawed in situations like this with decent rates and marginal temps (depth maps will tend to underestimate). Agreed. It’s crazy looking at 10:1 maps and seeing almost 2 feet in some areas lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 On 3/30/2024 at 9:06 AM, Tom said: This setup looks to be golden for your area and most of the MW/OHV.... @OttumwaSnomow should do real good...this is the epitome of the IA/MO warm front scenario at play which he discusses on here. Good luck bud! Great call @Tom! Nothing like a wobbling warm front here!!! I just got raked best gully washer since June or longer! 1.32" and still not over! 2 rounds of pea size hail! FINALLY SOME RUN OFF FOR PONDS! KDMX - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 10_52 PM.mp4 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 I received about 0.32" this evening. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 The models are trending toward a more nw low track. A few models even get my area into the defo zone and drop 1+" of precip. I need Monday's convection to not push all of this farther southeast. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 1 Author Report Share Posted April 1 5 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said: Great call @Tom! Nothing like a wobbling warm front here!!! I just got raked best gully washer since June or longer! 1.32" and still not over! 2 rounds of pea size hail! FINALLY SOME RUN OFF FOR PONDS! KDMX - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 10_52 PM.mp4 That's what I'm hoping for here this evening. Most ponds are only half full or less and the streams are dry or stagnate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 1 Author Report Share Posted April 1 The SPC has shifted the enhanced risk NW back over my area today. 3km NAM and HRRR both showing supercells in my area around 5 pm. I wouldn't be surprised if there's not an upgrade to a moderate risk from mby back into central Oklahoma later today. The GFS did a pretty good job showing this system phasing with the northern stream as it lifts toward the Lakes this could turn into a nice spring snowstorm for Ill, Wisc, and Mich. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some strong) are possible. The severe threat will peak this afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period. ...Synopsis... A large, positively tilted upper-level trough will shift east from the Southwest to the central Plains today. A mid-level shortwave trough, currently rounding the base of the large scale trough, will advance quickly northeast through the day today within a strong mid-level jet. This strong flow will overspread a broad, very moist warm sector and lead to severe weather across a large portion of the Southern Plains into the Midwest. A surface low is present across eastern Colorado this morning with a stationary front extending eastward across Kansas and Missouri and into the Ohio Valley. This surface low will drift slowly east through the day and the front is expected to lift north across Missouri as a warm front during the afternoon. ...North Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and the Ozarks... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected across much of the warm sector east of the dryline by mid-day today with temperatures warming into the 70s to low 80s. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by the time ascent associated with the approaching trough overspreads the dryline. Once this occurs, expect rapid storm development along the dryline from southern Kansas to north Texas. Very strong shear, and mostly straight hodographs will support splitting supercells initially capable of large to potentially giant hail across a broad region from southwest Missouri to north Texas. Storm evolution off the dryline is still somewhat uncertain. Some guidance depicts more discrete development off the dryline and the potential for multiple rounds of supercells, while other CAM guidance waits until closer to 00Z to convect and leads to upscale growth and significant storm interaction within the first few hours. This evolution will have a significant impact on the longevity of the giant hail threat, but even with a messy storm mode, very large hail will remain a threat. Low-level shear is expected to be very weak for much of the day, which will limit the tornado threat. However, by the evening, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen with the ejecting wave and low-level shear will improve. The most favorable hodographs are expected across northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and southwest/central Missouri in a region where mature supercells will likely be ongoing. Therefore, a more favorable period for tornadoes and potentially strong tornadoes may exist from 23-03Z as the low-level shear improves. ...Eastern Missouri into southern Illinois... At least isolated supercells are expected to develop along the warm front from northern Missouri into central Illinois this afternoon and evening. Strong instability and very strong shear will support large to very large hail. In addition, storm motion is expected to be parallel to the surface front. Therefore, any supercells which can latch onto the warm front will have a higher tornado threat. However, more isolated storm coverage and uncertainty regarding storm evolution preclude higher tornado probabilities in this region. Later in the evening and into the overnight hours, storms from the west will move into the region with a threat for large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. ...Ohio River Vicinity... Supercells from Illinois may continue east along the warm front into the evening across southern Indiana and potentially southern Ohio. Additional storms may also develop along this frontal zone with a primary threat of large hail. Weaker instability/shear should limit the overall threat from these storms compared to farther west. However, moderate instability and strong shear will support a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, a cluster of storms is expected to approach from the west. The overnight environment will continue to support a severe threat with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear in excess of 50 knots. There is still considerable uncertainty how this cluster will evolve. A cluster of supercells would pose a threat for all severe weather hazards, while a more organized MCS may support a greater severe wind and QLCS tornado threat. ...Central Texas... Strong instability is expected to develop ahead of a dryline across central Texas this afternoon. Confluence along the dryline and weak height falls should provide ample support for isolated to scattered storm development. Any storms which develop will be capable of very large to giant hail, given very strong instability and shear an expected supercellular storm mode. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 GFS/Euro/NAM all further NW with the low and defo band. Very narrow band of heavy snow but cut these totals in half on Kuchera and that’s still 6-8 inch storm for April 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 06z Euro.... a bit more nw Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 1.56" My heaviest rain only day since September 2022. Was pea sized hail twice. My pond jumped up 2 feet! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 9 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said: Great call @Tom! Nothing like a wobbling warm front here!!! I just got raked best gully washer since June or longer! 1.32" and still not over! 2 rounds of pea size hail! FINALLY SOME RUN OFF FOR PONDS! KDMX - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 10_52 PM.mp4 Boom! Fantastic...I see those cells produce some very large hail that tracked just S of your area into C IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 It was a record snow day for the Flagstaff area yesterday...not only that, but this brings the season total up to 103.1" with more to come today and yet another trough this coming weekend! This is the 1st time in decades that the FLG area has received back to back 100"+ seasons. As you can see below, last year was a bountiful 150"+ season as most of it fell in FEB/MAR, iirc. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 Can't tell you how much this means to me to be able to track ULL's through the PHX Valley. This has to be the #3 or #4 ULL this season that tracked right overhead. Nature has been awesome for the SW region. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 GFS kuchera is insane. Even half of that is 10+ inches of snow here. 10:1 shows nearly 2 1/2 feet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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