Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Nothing great at Day 8. We'll see if the block pivots favorably after this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 8.5 block pivoting. Flow bending around favorably in northern BC/AB. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 9 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Real close to dropping the arctic hammer on us. C'MON!!!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Mountain snow 4 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 CANCEL IT. We get shafted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: CANCEL IT. We get shafted The Northern Rockies slide into the mid west.....how typical Enjoy Texas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Canadian goes nuts with cold air! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 The gem is walking me back from the edge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall Totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: The gem is walking me back from the edge. Yeah, just a tad. A lot of model noise, confusion, giveth and taketh away and we'll see that for the next 4-5 days to be sure. I think once the Aleutian ridge is initialized and shows up around Day 1-2 we'll see good stuff. Colder runs ahead! C'moN!!! 00z ECMWF in 44 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 That looks cold but that looks like it will slide right into Montana @DJ Droppin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Yeah, just a tad. A lot of model noise, confusion, giveth and taketh away and we'll see that for the next 4-5 days to be sure. I think once the Aleutian ridge is initialized and shows up around Day 1-2 we'll see good stuff. Colder runs ahead! C'moN!!! 00z ECMWF in 44 minutes O yea i am just messing around. I don't put stock into things 8+ days out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: That looks cold but that looks like it will slide right into Montana @DJ Droppin As it always does, yup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: O yea i am just messing around. I don't put stock into things 8+ days out Yeah we can only speculate. Only December 2008 did the models somehow miraculously come to agreement 8 days out. That was truly remarkable and we've never seen anything like it since. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Maybe the King will show us some goodies. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Maybe the King will show us some goodies. Yeahhhhh! I do think in the coming days we're going to see some really cold runs, but will we see model continuity and ensemble support for that. No idea. The fun of model riding! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Yeah we can only speculate. Only December 2008 did the models somehow miraculously come to agreement 8 days out. That was truly remarkable and we've never seen anything like it since. Even then the models, especially the GFS, occasionally showed a different solution. And of course the board had a melt down. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Once in a blue moon there is a full moon on Halloween. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 50 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: CANCEL IT. We get shafted Oh oh! Could bring more Santa Ana winds to California. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 I call it another good GFS run tonight. Big GOA block and it gets cold. The GEM looks insanely cold again....maybe it will be right this time. One interesting theme with the recent GFS runs and the 12z ECMWF is the fact they show an impressively cold maritime polar air mass giving way to a cold / dry continental air mass. Certainly snow potential for WA at least in that. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8.5 block pivoting. Flow bending around favorably in northern BC/AB. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Another interesting note is the La Nina has already achieved strong status. One of the strongest La Ninas ever and they don't normally peak until early winter. The last measurement I saw for Nino 3.4 was slightly below -1.5. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 00z ECMWF Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 6 GFS Day 6 GEM Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 EURO much healthier at Day 6 with ridge merger 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 The GFS/GEM were significantly weaker with the ridge at Day 7. Not even close! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 55 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Yes. This. NOW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 (edited) Day 8 Ohhh so close! C'MON!!!! Edited October 30, 2020 by DJ Droppin I'm sleepy and made a boo-boo. Whoops! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 That's 1 helluva block King EURO is portraying.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Day 7 Ohhh so close! C'MON!!!! Looks like it may drop... Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Day 10 Meh, but close to the goods. Fun model riding ahead! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 This isn't warm to be sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 Meh, but close to the goods. Fun model riding ahead! WTF? You don't think that's good? 850s drop to -8 over SEA and the Arctic front comes through. Not sure how it could be much better. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 That ECMWF run is pretty much as cold as it gets before Nov 10 or so. As I've mentioned before the record lows in the Nov 5 to 10 period are pretty low hanging fruit for a lot of stations. I'd gladly take that run. Right now we are just wanting to see the strong GOA blocking propensity. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2020 Report Share Posted October 30, 2020 Another thing I like is the advertised pattern will continue to drop the West Coast SST anoms. A process started by the last cold snap. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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