October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Nothing great at Day 8. We'll see if the block pivots favorably after this point.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8.5 block pivoting. Flow bending around favorably in northern BC/AB.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

[Gradient Keeper]

Real close to dropping the arctic hammer on us. C'MON!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Mountain snow

[SouthHillFrosty]

CANCEL IT. We get shafted

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

CANCEL IT. We get shafted

The Northern Rockies slide into the mid west.....how typical

Enjoy Texas 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Canadian goes nuts with cold air!

[SouthHillFrosty]

The gem is walking me back from the edge. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall Totals

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The gem is walking me back from the edge. 

Yeah, just a tad. A lot of model noise, confusion, giveth and taketh away and we'll see that for the next 4-5 days to be sure. I think once the Aleutian ridge is initialized and shows up around Day 1-2 we'll see good stuff. Colder runs ahead! C'moN!!!

00z ECMWF in 44 minutes

[SouthHillFrosty]

That looks cold but that looks like it will slide right into Montana @DJ Droppin

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah, just a tad. A lot of model noise, confusion, giveth and taketh away and we'll see that for the next 4-5 days to be sure. I think once the Aleutian ridge is initialized and shows up around Day 1-2 we'll see good stuff. Colder runs ahead! C'moN!!!

00z ECMWF in 44 minutes

O yea i am just messing around. I don't put stock into things 8+ days out

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That looks cold but that looks like it will slide right into Montana @DJ Droppin

 

As it always does, yup.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

O yea i am just messing around. I don't put stock into things 8+ days out

Yeah we can only speculate. Only December 2008 did the models somehow miraculously come to agreement 8 days out. That was truly remarkable and we've never seen anything like it since.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Maybe the King will show us some goodies.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Maybe the King will show us some goodies.

Yeahhhhh! I do think in the coming days we're going to see some really cold runs, but will we see model continuity and ensemble support for that. No idea. The fun of model riding!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah we can only speculate. Only December 2008 did the models somehow miraculously come to agreement 8 days out. That was truly remarkable and we've never seen anything like it since.

Even then the models, especially the GFS, occasionally showed a different solution.  And of course the board had a melt down.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Once in a blue moon there is a full moon on Halloween.

[Anti Marine Layer]

50 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

CANCEL IT. We get shafted

Oh oh! Could bring more Santa Ana winds to California.

[snow_wizard]

I call it another good GFS run tonight.  Big GOA block and it gets cold.  The GEM looks insanely cold again....maybe it will be right this time.

One interesting theme with the recent GFS runs and the 12z ECMWF is the fact they show an impressively cold maritime polar air mass giving way to a cold / dry continental air mass.  Certainly snow potential for WA at least in that.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8.5 block pivoting. Flow bending around favorably in northern BC/AB.

 

[snow_wizard]

Another interesting note is the La Nina has already achieved strong status.  One of the strongest La Ninas ever and they don't normally peak until early winter.  The last measurement I saw for Nino 3.4 was slightly below -1.5.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6

GFS Day 6

GEM Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

EURO much healthier at Day 6 with ridge merger

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

The GFS/GEM were significantly weaker with the ridge at Day 7. Not even close!

[Gradient Keeper]

55 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

 

Yes. This. NOW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Ohhh so close! C'MON!!!!

Edited October 30, 2020 by DJ Droppin
I'm sleepy and made a boo-boo. Whoops!

[Gradient Keeper]

That's 1 helluva block King EURO is portraying....

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 7 Ohhh so close! C'MON!!!!

Looks like it may drop...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Meh, but close to the goods. Fun model riding ahead!

[Gradient Keeper]

This isn't warm to be sure.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10 Meh, but close to the goods. Fun model riding ahead!

WTF?  You don't think that's good?  850s drop to -8 over SEA and the Arctic front comes through.  Not sure how it could be much better.

[snow_wizard]

That ECMWF run is pretty much as cold as it gets before Nov 10 or so.  As I've mentioned before the record lows in the Nov 5 to 10 period are pretty low hanging fruit for a lot of stations.  I'd gladly take that run.  Right now we are just wanting to see the strong GOA blocking propensity.

[snow_wizard]

Another thing I like is the advertised pattern will continue to drop the West Coast SST anoms.  A process started by the last cold snap.