October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Early November is when the seasonal snowpack typically starts building, at least in the WA Cascades. Breaks between storms and prolonged 850mb warmups quickly become much fewer and further between.

Pretty much. The bigger PNW ski resorts like Stevens Pass, Crystal, and Meadows try to open by Thanksgiving.

Chance of getting into the 60s also seems to drop sharply around November 10-15.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS through November 14th. Both Portland and Seattle mean temp only warms to 0c with many members colder. Nice.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GEFS through November 14th. Both Portland and Seattle mean temp only warms to 0c with many members colder. Nice.

Cowlder runz ahed

[Meatyorologist]

53 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GEFS Portland, Seattle. A bit colder. A notch. Yeah.

If what the OP is advertising is the MEAN then that's awesome. Really want to build that snowpack.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble is getting impressively cold.  The mean on the 18z bottoms out at -6.5 for SEA.  The big question right now IMO is whether we get continental cold air or will it remain maritime polar.  Most runs seem to get continental air at least down to Seattle or so, and some much further south.  The models are struggling with the balance on the surface high pressure complex that is expected to develop over the NE Pacific and Western Canada, which is going to have much to say about that.

[MossMan]

Power just came back on! Only 7hrs this time...Shortest outage yet in the 2.5yrs of living here. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Power just came back on! Only 7hrs this time...Shortest outage yet in the 2.5yrs of living here. 

I did not even know there was a storm.   There was a little breeze this morning... but its been dry and partly to mostly cloudy all day.  

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I did not even know there was a storm.   There was a little breeze this morning... but its been dry and partly to mostly cloudy all day.  

Cleared out up here and got very windy here starting around 11am and stayed that way though most of the afternoon. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Mostly cloudy but slowly clearing here now down to 54F.

[High Desert Mat?]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I did not even know there was a storm.   There was a little breeze this morning... but its been dry and partly to mostly cloudy all day.  

Windy all day down here. Not power outage worthy but a gusty day. Looks like a nice weekend coming up, could be the last for awhile, enjoy it all!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

41 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Power just came back on! Only 7hrs this time...Shortest outage yet in the 2.5yrs of living here. 

Yikes! I can see why you own a generator.

I am now living in a neighborhood with the most reliable electric service of anyplace I have lived. All underground lines, lights don’t so much as blink during windstorms. So it’s all downhill (in terms of reliability) from here.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Down to 50°F after a high of 57 here.

[Weather1011]

I just saw komos weather write up 

 

Komo:

American Forums like when weather prediction models agree on cold historic outcomes. This gives higher deluisional mindsets in the forecast outcome. Looking ahead, models are in good agreement of much colder and deadlier conditions will come around by the first weekend in November. After a warm start to the month, brutally cold historic arctic air looks to plunge southward into the Lower 20. The Climate Prediction Center highlights the SEA-PDX area as having a significent risk of hazardous temperatures November 7-12, meaning well numerous fatalities (highs in the 40s Kelvin) are anticipated through that time

[Gradient Keeper]

Here we go!

Popcorn

[Weather1011]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Here we go!

Popcorn

We need some snow and I don't mean the party snow either.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Pivotal running slowly again of course.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (While Pivotal catches up)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

Past 4 runs

[Gradient Keeper]

Now Pivot and TILT and we're in business! C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

SO D**n close to a blast! Tilt!!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7.5, block slowly pivoting, heights rising over southern Alaska. C'MON!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

As close as it gets to a major early November blast.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8.5

[Gradient Keeper]

[FroYoBro]

Arctic front makes it to Seattle at hour 210. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Oh and Major Hurricane near the Florida Keys. NOPE!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[El_Nina]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Oh and Major Hurricane near the Florida Keys. NOPE!

That seems to coincide with cold in the NW. 

[Gradient Keeper]

What did I say? Numerous times.

1) Colder runs ahead

2) Ya gotta believe!

00z ECMWF in 58 minutes

[MossMan]

Plow mounting plans back on! 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 7.5

[TigerWoodsLibido]

There you go, Western Washington Special.

Really wish I could get up to Bachelor for this. Going to be amazing up there.

[Meatyorologist]

Sexy.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 8 Alert!

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

There you go, Western Washington Special.

Really wish I could get up to Bachelor for this. Going to be amazing up there.

LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 8.5