October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Brrrr!

[Weather1011]

Prepare for the let down now 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wow. Good for early November

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles continue the slightly colder trend. Through November 9th Seattle mean temp -7c, PDX -6c

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow. Good for early November

I’m in the purple. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Clear and down to 43F.

[MossMan]

A little odd to be tracking a possible major blast less than 10 days out while watching Halloween 4: The Return of Michael Myers. 
 

Anyway, currently down to 38 degrees. 

[Weather1011]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

A little odd to be tracking a possible major blast less than 10 days out while watching Halloween 4: The Return of Michael Myers. 
 

Anyway, currently down to 38 degrees. 

I watched the 2018 Halloween last night 

[snow_wizard]

The period the models are showing the big cold is only a few days earlier than it happened in 1955 so who knows.

[Gradient Keeper]

Here we go. EURO time. Fabulous run tonight!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

27 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow. Good for early November

That is from the 12Z earlier this morning.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The period the models are showing the big cold is only a few days earlier than it happened in 1955 so who knows.

When did 55 commence? I was just going to ask if we have ever seen a major blast during the timeframe currently predicted? 

[MossMan]

It’s coming...

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MossMan said:

When did 55 commence? I was just going to ask if we have ever seen a major blast during the timeframe currently predicted? 

The 11th.  That cold wave was insane with lows dropping to around zero in some places and highs in the low 20s.  Ridiculously anomalous.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 3

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

November 2010 was ten years ago. Man time zips by! 

[Jesse]

Some morning rain and afternoon clearing today. 60/42.

Currently clear with a bright moon out, and 44.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Canadian ensembles colder more inline with GEFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Need the block to pivot and tilt hard right --->

[Dave]

I was bored and looking at old climate records for Eugene. Here's a tidbit that I found surprising: In Jan, 1949 it reached 32 degrees or colder in all 31 days of the month. That is pretty wild for a location west of the Cascades.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 nope

[Gradient Keeper]

Chilly onshore flow

[Gradient Keeper]

I thought the EURO was going to deliver..... Not yet. Patience

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

6z GFS in 2 hours 33 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[GHweatherChris]

11/20/2020

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF isn't quite as good as the other models, but it is within the window where it can get much better over the next couple of days.  The ECMWF has been far from flawless this year so it has no better chance of being right than the others at this point.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like it will probably frost tonight.  It cleared out a little bit ago and is now down to 44.  Rather impressively all of my min temps have been 41 or lower over the last 10 days.  Not too shabby.

[snow_wizard]

It appears the X factor in the coming pattern is going to be whether or not a ridge bridge develops across Northern Canada.  The good runs seem to have that feature.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not sure I can make it to 3-4AM. Gotta be up at 7:15. I'll take a peek at the overnight run when I inevitably have to take a whiz.

Up to 43F with some fog forming.

[Gradient Keeper]

We are 4-5 days before the Aleutian ridge takes shape. A lot is going to change over the next few days of model runs. Colder runs ahead!

6z GFS in 1 hour 20 minutes

 

[Gradient Keeper]

The high pressure cell that becomes our Aleutian ridge and Alaskan block is currently just west of Japan. It will take 4 to 5 days before it reaches the central Aleutians which means different model solutions are likely the next 2-3 days. That's why earlier I said I really wanted to see what 00z Monday evening runs look like.

[Meatyorologist]

06z running, initial conditions look more analogous to the 00z than the 18z. As you'd expect.

[Gradient Keeper]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z running, initial conditions look more analogous to the 00z than the 18z. As you'd expect.

Ideally Day 6-7 I'd like to see the block set up a bit further east, not much, but a few notches and better tilt of course.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 past 4 runs. Looking for any trends.