East Dubzz Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sounds like this is doing pretty good back home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Grahpic has me almost borderline with 6-8 inches. It will be interesting how this evolves tonight. I am hoping ORD can squeeze at least 2-3 inches from sypnotic event and some lake enhancement but band might be to east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Your right Dominick, I think the main band will develop about 5 or so miles to the east of ORD. Your sitting pretty good IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Grahpic has me almost borderline with 6-8 inches. It will be interesting how this evolves tonight. I am hoping ORD can squeeze at least 2-3 inches from sypnotic event and some lake enhancement but band might be to east.22Z RAP slams ORD with a heavy band of LES snow for 3-4 hours. If that ends up occurring ORD will do just fine. Dominic, you shouldn't be worried you're in one of the best spots for this event. At this time you're definitely looking good for 6 plus especially if you can get the band to park over you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 WGN's RPM has the lake plume sitting ORD also for a few hours and then shifts towards the city and keeps pounding central/southern Cook county till 1:00pm tomorrow. It never ends up going into IN. If that's a trend, I think LOT may pull some Lake Snow Watches in NW IN. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Feeling I sure hope so. Remember what happened with MKE not to long ago! Snowing lightly but nice and fluffy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Friend's dad has over 2 inches in Kenosha, WI so far and snowing pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 WGN's RPM has the lake plume shitting ORD also for a few hours and then shifts towards the city and keeps pounding central/southern Cook county till 1:00pm tomorrow. It never ends up going into IN. If that's a trend, I think LOT may pull some Lake Snow Watches in NW IN.Is that a new form of precip lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 HRRR showing that band right over you Dominick around Midnight... LOL Scott, can we say typo!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 terrible driving over here....snow and blowing snow with icy raods. maybe an inch. i didnt measure. its blowing too much. there should be an advisory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Friend's dad has over 2 inches in Kenosha, WI so far and snowing pretty good. That's a little high. I'd say about an inch there as I drove through at 5pm. He must be measuring where it is drifting. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 LOT update. If you're by Midway, you're sitting pretty. If you're by O'Hare, enjoy a little new layer. FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...ORD AND MDW ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ONEHALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 03Z. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUEAT ORD AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. FORMDW...AN ADDITIONAL AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES IS FAVORED...WITH THEINCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 6...AND POSSIBLY EVEN 12 INCHES. GYY ISSIMILAR TO MDW FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATION. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 0.7" so far here. Flake size isn't all that big. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 There is the Lake Plume taking on a NE/SW trajectory...beeline for NE IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Multiple lake snow band visible on nexrad radar. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 You can see the lake enhancement developing over Cook County right now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Geo's, you may even get in on some lake enhancement and it looks like one of those bands is about to hit your area. Flake size over here has increased in size over the last 10-15 minutes. I just took a trip to the store and its snowing so nicely outside right now and the roads are snow covered with the wind whipping up small ground blizzards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Everything is covered here definitely. Somewhat easy to spot the linear patterns over the lake and one right on the shoreline east of here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's snowing pretty good outside. Looks like some LES has developed now 20dbz band just north of Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 I was looking at the earth wind map and you can see the contour lines just funneling the wind right down the lake into NE IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's snowing pretty good outside. Looks like some LES has developed now 20dbz band just north of Chicago.You look good for a while with good returns pushing west towards you with still heavy snow over lake Michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lake band getting going nicely. Seeing some nice lake enhancement in central Cook. Ground and streets are covering up and light mod snow falling right now. 4k NAM looks better for Cook than 18z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Comparing the latest HRRR precip output to where the band sits right now, it looks a little farther west. I think parts of SE Lake County may even get it on the action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just measured about 1.1" IMBY...-SN ATM...very powdery snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Snow intensity has increased here. LES seems to have made its move inland. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 SREF's for ORD are on the rise slightly...mean is about .15qpf...fluff that up easily to about 3" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 1-2" here. snowing hard. very windy. near blizzard conditions. 9 degrees. winter wonderland! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 The LES band has a really good chance to swing into N Cook county for a little while. Looks like it is swinging to the west farther than forecasted earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 1.4" here through 9pm. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Downtown about to get rocked with that LES band... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Drove home from Madison from 6-8 pm and toward the end the roads were getting really bad, and the wind made visibility low. Haven't been able to track the models a ton today for the LES potential but have been hearing about it. Any chance Buffalo Grove can get under this band and squeeze out a couple inches? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Good snow here in Elmwood Park. I'm wondering just how long I'll have it since I'm 13 miles NW of the Sears Tower; so I'll enjoy it as long as it's falling. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Bill Bellis just showed his future cast and it had the band sitting in N Cook county through about 1:00am! Band definitely farther west than earlier forecasted. I wouldn't be surprised if ORD picked up 4" or more from this. It's snowing gang busters downtown right now, less than 1/4 mile visibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Officially above average for the season now. 44.3" to date. New disco from LOT. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL910 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014.DISCUSSION...905 PM CSTWILL BE ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR LAKE COUNTY ANDREORIENTING THE FORECAST SNOW MAXIMA SLIGHTLY MORENORTHWEST...INCLUDING MORE OF EASTERN COOK COUNTY.LAKE EFFECT SETUP ALREADY HAS TAKEN SHAPE WITH -22C AIR AT 850MB ASSEEN ON THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING PROGRESSING QUICKLY DOWN THE LAKE. SNOWSHOWERS...MAINLY UNFOCUSED...ARE MOVING INTO THE NE IL AND THE LAKECOUNTY IN SHORE AT THIS HOUR...WHILE A WELL-DEFINED BAND IS SEEN ONTHE MKE TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR OVER MID-LAKE...WITH UP TO 30 DBZINDICATIVE OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW. THE TREND ON THIS BAND HAS BEENTO EVOLVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST AND TRAJECTORIES WOULD INDICATEINTO THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY SHORE/NORTHEAST COOK COUNTY SHORE BY10-11 PM.OBSERVATIONS ON LAND HAVE BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD BETTERCONVERGENCE...LIKE THERE PRESUMABLY IS OVER THE LAKE...BUT IS STILLSOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED ON SHORE. SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT ONHOW LONG THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL PERSIST INTOEASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES ATREND TO GRADUALLY SHIFT THIS MORE SO INTO COOK COUNTY BY THE MIDDLEOF OVERNIGHT. BUT EVEN SO WITH THE RADAR TRENDS AND THE FORECASTINSTABILITY MENTIONED IN PREV AFD STILL SEEN ON LATEST SHORT TERMGUIDANCE...FEEL THAT A QUICK BURST OF THREE PLUS INCHES CERTAINLYCOULD BE SEEN IN SOUTHEAST LAKE.AS FOR EASTERN COOK COUNTY...TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THEPRIMARY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DIRECTED INTO CHICAGO FOR SEVERALHOURS IF NOT THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE FACT OFONGOING SNOW SHOWERS HAS LED TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOWFALLAMOUNTS...BUT NOT BY MUCH SIMPLY DUE TO THE WIDTH OF THE BAND BEINGVERY NARROW AND UNDULATIONS REMAINING LIKELY.NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE WATCH FOR PORTER COUNTY ASUNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR EAST THE LAKE EFFECTSNOW WILL MOVE TUESDAY.AS FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH...LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE ANDSYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE INTOOVERNIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND AN INCH. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Mike Caplans post just now on Facebook: "Latest high resolution models have shifted the "blast zone" for heaviest lake-effect snow to the west. City of Chicago right in the crosshairs for a possible white nightmare. Consequently a Lake Effect snow advisory has been hoisted for Lake county IL. Main risk area THERE would be southeast 1/3 or so of the county. i.e. Deerfield would get much more than Fox Lake. But if trends are correct, eastern Cook county and parts of the city will get buried. Stay with ABC for the latest. LES is notoriously tricky and even slight shifts in trajectory can mean the difference between one community getting next to nothing and a nearby one getting a foot." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Thinking 10-12" within 5-6 miles of the lake from Highwood southwards to the Skyway tonight. Epic winter locally. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Mike Caplans post just now on Facebook: "Latest high resolution models have shifted the "blast zone" for heaviest lake-effect snow to the west. City of Chicago right in the crosshairs for a possible white nightmare. Consequently a Lake Effect snow advisory has been hoisted for Lake county IL. Main risk area THERE would be southeast 1/3 or so of the county. i.e. Deerfield would get much more than Fox Lake. But if trends are correct, eastern Cook county and parts of the city will get buried. Stay with ABC for the latest. LES is notoriously tricky and even slight shifts in trajectory can mean the difference between one community getting next to nothing and a nearby one getting a foot."Hmm...as much as I love snow, I'm digging the term "White Nightmare." Almost sounds like a name for a pro wrestler. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Digging this. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 That's a great Disco from LOT! I had a feeling they would mention SE Lake County would get in on the action. Eastern Du Page is getting in on the action now as well. ChiTownWx, I think BG will pick up some decent snow out of this band. Maybe a few inches if this band sets up just right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 21, 2014 Report Share Posted January 21, 2014 Digging this. http://models.weatherbell.com/hrrr/2014012101/chicago/hrrr_ref_chicago_6.png Right in the middle of it. BTW, snowing impressively now. One of heaviest all year or close to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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