james1976 Posted June 5, 2014 Report Share Posted June 5, 2014 What are long range models looking like? GFS has somewhat of a warmup late next week and then looks a bit cooler after that. Nothing above avg anyway. I wonder when we will get that first heat wave of 90s+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 5, 2014 Report Share Posted June 5, 2014 Euro bringing in some real warmth region wide by next Wed/Thu and beyond...mini warm spell/heat wave in the cards 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 5, 2014 Report Share Posted June 5, 2014 im down for some summer weather and storms......and then time to start tracking snowstorms! lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted June 5, 2014 Report Share Posted June 5, 2014 Euro bringing in some real warmth region wide by next Wed/Thu and beyond...mini warm spell/heat wave in the cards Given the recent moisture south and west of the Great Lakes, hard to see much of a heatwave in the near term, meaning next couple of weeks. If it happens, I hope it's more of a dirty heatwave (ie. showers and storm chances galore). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 5, 2014 Report Share Posted June 5, 2014 12z Euro for next Saturday...could be area wide upper 80's/low 90's and into Sunday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 5, 2014 Report Share Posted June 5, 2014 12z Euro Control/Ensemble want to create a very massive ridge over the region by next Friday/Saturday even up into the Upper Midwest through the extended (20th)...first heat wave of the season may be in the works. GFS not really buying into it yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2014 Weather was perfect today. 70/49 here. Had some picturesque cirrus clouds drift by late this afternoon, complete with sun dogs. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 6, 2014 Report Share Posted June 6, 2014 GFS now starting to sing a different tune in the 1-2 week range. Parts of KS/NE may be in the 100F heat dome come mid June. We may see a ring of fire pattern develop over the region or if the dome of heat is strong enough, it may push it farther north into the Upper Midwest. Will be interesting to see how strong the models develop this ridge over the coming week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted June 6, 2014 Report Share Posted June 6, 2014 GFS now starting to sing a different tune in the 1-2 week range. Parts of KS/NE may be in the 100F heat dome come mid June. We may see a ring of fire pattern develop over the region or if the dome of heat is strong enough, it may push it farther north into the Upper Midwest. Will be interesting to see how strong the models develop this ridge over the coming week.it looks like that the severe storms could go north of the dakotas and the upper midwest towards canada to the northeastren conus like you just said tom that a ring of fire pattren is in the works so that means towards the upper midwest towards the ohio valley will have temps in the 100s and this is a heat advisory to excessive heat warning criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 6, 2014 Report Share Posted June 6, 2014 I don't think 100's will stretch out into the Midwest/Ohio Valley. That is pretty far fetched this early in the season. The Plains have a better chance of hitting the century mark. It's also too early to tell where this "Ring of Fire" pattern establishes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted June 6, 2014 Report Share Posted June 6, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 6, 2014 Report Share Posted June 6, 2014 12z Euro Ensembles bringing a blow torch June 16-21st! Impressive heat wave showing up and def starting to show some consistency. Official start of Summer would begin on a very hot note. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 6, 2014 Report Share Posted June 6, 2014 Wow! That's impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 7, 2014 Report Share Posted June 7, 2014 Des Moines:THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH THE PATTERN REMAINING UNSETTLED WITH MORE OR A RING OF FIRE TYPE SETUP DEVELOPING TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 7, 2014 Report Share Posted June 7, 2014 The last two Euro runs have dropped the heat wave in the 8-10 day period in favor of a more progressive flow. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 8, 2014 Report Share Posted June 8, 2014 Picked up a better-than-expected 0.97" of rain this afternoon. Some spotters in the local area got 1.5+". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 8, 2014 Report Share Posted June 8, 2014 looking like 70s all the way til next saturday with storms tomorrow and late week. yup, looks like the heat wave may not happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 8, 2014 Report Share Posted June 8, 2014 Instead of bringing the heat this week, models are bringing it back next weekend into the following week and it could last a while. CFSv2 has it building the week of the 16th and keeps the above normal regime through the end of June into beginning of July. CFSv2 usually trends stronger on these signals as we get closer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 8, 2014 Report Share Posted June 8, 2014 12z Euro ensembles bringing back the "torch" around the 16/17th....18z GFS showing the same result. First time I am seeing global model consensus. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 9, 2014 Report Share Posted June 9, 2014 its bound to happen at some point! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 9, 2014 Report Share Posted June 9, 2014 hope its ok to post this here. looking like a moderate to srong el nino heading into fall/winter.http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/images/photos/Screen_Shot_2014-04-03_at_11.53.18_PM.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted June 10, 2014 Report Share Posted June 10, 2014 was just looking for next weeks forecast that we are looking at a multiday severe weather and tornado outbreak and the instabilty shows that the cap by that time will weaken for thunderstorms to develop and so that means next week needs to be monitored for moderate to high risks by the spc and pds severe thunderstorm or tornado watches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 10, 2014 Report Share Posted June 10, 2014 Here are the latest CFSv2 temperature forecast departures Day 5-20. Euro Ensembles agree with CFSv2, but Euro Control is a totally opposite and brings a deep trough into Midwest/Lakes. Interesting to see which models win this battle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 10, 2014 Report Share Posted June 10, 2014 Here are the latest CFSv2 temperature forecast departures Day 5-20. Euro Ensembles agree with CFSv2, but Euro Control is a totally opposite and brings a deep trough into Midwest/Lakes. Interesting to see which models win this battle.Do you have the Euro control? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 10, 2014 Report Share Posted June 10, 2014 00z Euro Control 5 day mean... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 10, 2014 Report Share Posted June 10, 2014 Euro pumps up the warmth this weekend into early next week, then the bottom falls out....big severe wx threat potential nxt Wednesday somewhere in the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 10, 2014 Report Share Posted June 10, 2014 thats some cool air! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 11, 2014 Report Share Posted June 11, 2014 Over the last week or so we have seen the models advertise a heat wave in the Plains/Midwest regions around the 16/17th thru the 21st or so but that has all disappeared. Personally, this has been a case study I will use for future potential "heat waves" that show up on model runs this summer. In all honesty, I had suspected that we wouldn't see prolong heat waves of 5-7+ days this summer just because the transient pattern we have been seeing over the past 2 months and the amount of rain and moisture that is in the soil. On the other hand, it does not mean we wont see days in the 90's, however, they wont stick around as long. 70's/80's are perfect in my book and severe weather! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted June 11, 2014 Report Share Posted June 11, 2014 Over the last week or so we have seen the models advertise a heat wave in the Plains/Midwest regions around the 16/17th thru the 21st or so but that has all disappeared. Personally, this has been a case study I will use for future potential "heat waves" that show up on model runs this summer. In all honesty, I had suspected that we wouldn't see prolong heat waves of 5-7+ days this summer just because the transient pattern we have been seeing over the past 2 months and the amount of rain and moisture that is in the soil. On the other hand, it does not mean we wont see days in the 90's, however, they wont stick around as long. 70's/80's are perfect in my book and severe weather! I second that, I don't prefer to see the scorching heat that much of the southern half of the country sees, I prefer just enough heat to fuel thunderstorms, and plenty of comfortable days and sleeping nights in between. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted June 11, 2014 Report Share Posted June 11, 2014 was just hearing from the chicago weather center blog that next week through midweek that warm and humid air mass will contributed to severe thunderstorms to a few tornadoes is in the cards because the instability and with dewpoints surging into the 70s next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 12, 2014 Report Share Posted June 12, 2014 Model Mayhem continues...00z Euro Ensembles pushed the warmth back farther west into the Plains next week and showing much more ridging and warmth in the region. Similar to 06z GFS run which is rather warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 12, 2014 Report Share Posted June 12, 2014 Model Mayhem continues...00z Euro Ensembles pushed the warmth back farther west into the Plains next week and showing much more ridging and warmth in the region. Similar to 06z GFS run which is rather warm. Yes, the Euro has really been flopping around badly. Now, instead of bringing the western trough east across the midwest, it keeps it out west and even tries to bring a backdoor front into the region late in the week. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 12, 2014 Report Share Posted June 12, 2014 CFSv2...not buying into warm up...can't believe there is soo much model discrepancy less than a week away...reminds me of the winter season when models were this bad. CFSv2 has a cooler rest of the month... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 12, 2014 Report Share Posted June 12, 2014 Bullseye of warmth coming mid next week over the region....Euro ensembles complete opposite of CFSv2 for the rest of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted June 13, 2014 Report Share Posted June 13, 2014 Come on EURO!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted June 14, 2014 Report Share Posted June 14, 2014 I want cooler weather, what we had this week was basically perfect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 14, 2014 Report Share Posted June 14, 2014 Models indicating a warm and humid air mass is in the works next week...summer time buoyancy and T-Storms are likely! Not an ideal set up for making bon fires when its so humid out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted June 15, 2014 Report Share Posted June 15, 2014 Models indicating a warm and humid air mass is in the works next week...summer time buoyancy and T-Storms are likely! Not an ideal set up for making bon fires when its so humid out. This is pretty much my ideal summer pattern. We just came off a week of near ideal weather (except for Wednesday being cool and rainy) and now we get into a warm and stormy pattern while those south of us bake. Makes me really appreciate our summer climo (particularly June before the heat and humidity tend to set in in earnest). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 16, 2014 Report Share Posted June 16, 2014 sounds like things could get interesting around here tomorrow/tomorrow night. all modes of severe with heavy rain possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 16, 2014 Report Share Posted June 16, 2014 things are coming together.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2014/day1otlk_20140616_1630.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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