tim the weatherman Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 since august 2014 is running out so feel free to talk about september 2014. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Looks like a warm open to September but the Euro is indicating a strong cold front dropping down into the Plains but may loose steam as it heads into the GL region. I think this month will turn out near normal to slightly below. The month I think will start out on the warmer end and then turn colder towards the end. We will start to see signs of the new LRC pattern towards late September and it will be interesting to see how that starts to evolve. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiNsTa Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Repeat of last September could be a possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 I can't really remember what last year was like, but a repeat of that happening is sure possible given the SST's and a neutral ENSO like we had last year. The analogs for this month indicate near normal temps in our region, with above normal to the east. This month is when the jet stream starts to strengthen up north and can sometimes create a ridge and pump up temps out ahead of storm systems that track into Canada. I think if systems take a track from the Rockies/Plains/Upper Midwest, it can pump some big time warmth during this month as storms get stronger. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 CFSv2 has been pumping a huge ridge into the 1st week of September run after run. Euro ensembles also on board. Could be a very warm open to September. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 September looks to start troughy out here in the west. We are coming off one of our warmest July/Augusts on record in some spots in Oregon and Washington so a cool down will be much appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 GFS isnt looking overly warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiNsTa Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 GFS isnt looking overly warm.All other models are showing a ridge developing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 yeah there will prolly be a ridge. GFS is a bit on its own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 CPC agreeing with a ridge....has above normal temps for next 2 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Euro pumping near 90F temps next Thu/Fri/Sat....if that ridge can hold strong, I can see that happening. The last attempt to mother nature had to bring us heat fell apart bc the frontal boundary was to close nearby. Both CFSv2/Euro and now GFS trying to push it farther north into N Wisco. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 -10 850s showing up in northern Canada long range GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 -10 850s showing up in northern Canada long range GFSAutumn is knocking on the doorsteps up north...CFSv2 keeps it very cool throughout September up there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 CFSv2.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiNsTa Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 October's probably going to be chilly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 Warm/hot starts to Septembers are pretty typical. I've yet to see a 90° high here though this year! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 This is probably one of the coldest runs on the GFS this season! Cross Polar flow is evident and it resembles the part of the LRC which saw strong cold fronts. I just checked the Euro ensembles and they also concur in this time period. Major cold pool will develop over Canada next 2 weeks. I think it may even snow up there already this early in the season! Wouldn't that be a shocker given the very warm summer they have had up there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 12z GFS run shows the first snows of the season up in the Archipelago regions of Canada and even in N Alaska! It's a bit early to see snows this time of year. I remember last year parts of Alaska had their first snowfalls in late Sept or early October, I don't remember exactly but nonetheless it was very early. To see snow during the 1st week of September is remarkable. Having said that, the below normal arctic regions this summer definitely has some credence to the reason why its going to get chilly up there. Its only speculation, but imagine if the snow cover up there begins to fill up in early October??? That would be one heck of a way to drive a fast start to winter this season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 As we head into the first part of September, the Euro ensembles for the past couple days are honing in on a much different pattern up in the northern latitudes in Canada/Alaska. Reinforcing shots of cold air are the beginning of Autumn up that way. Some of them even make their way into the northern Rockies/Plains. Massive riding near the Bearing Sea is the culprit here dislodging any cold air starting to build up in the arctic. It's fascinating to see this evolving so early. Btw, check out the blocking near Greenland. This has developed over the past couple weeks and looks to continue. IMO, Mother Nature is trying to tell us something of what to expect this winter season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Wouldn't that be something... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiNsTa Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 As with every warm-up and cool-down, it will be moderated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 I really don't get that excited for cooldowns in September, honestly I'd rather it stay average or warmish and stormy for most of the month, then once October hits it can get cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 A very chilly weekend on tap next week. Euro showing highs near 70F for 3 straight days. This is the time of year cool shots start to have a different "feel". I don't think this month will be as warm as some mets are forecasting. I can see another up and down month along with active storminess. Same pattern, same result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiNsTa Posted August 31, 2014 Report Share Posted August 31, 2014 This month was mostly an "up" month in terms of temperatures, definitely a change from July which was characterized by deep troughs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meichel Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 What the hell happened to all the rain tomorrow? Everyone has backed off their totals dramatically! 1 Quote On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiNsTa Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 What the hell happened to all the rain tomorrow? Everyone has backed off their totals dramatically!This is a non-event for north of I-80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 The storms last night held together long enough to drop 0.80" here. I'm pretty satisfied with that total. In the last week we've had rains of 0.37", 0.46", and 0.80". The grass has really greened up in a hurry. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 That's gonna leave a mark! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 would be crazy if that verified, Tom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiNsTa Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 would be crazy if that verified, Tom. most likely won't, just like the heatwave last week never verified (for the great lakes region). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 that was a chilly GFS run.....especially long range. some 0 850s nudging into the area! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 The heat waves were over done this season, but the cool shots were not IMO. Heading deeper into September, these cool shots will have more vigor. The LRC is still repeating the same ol' pattern and I can see a consistent NW flow of cold fronts to hit the region. I think JB is going to bust on having a warm Fall using his analog theory. Now that looks like a fast start to Autumn! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiNsTa Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Models keep showing warmth rebuilding by next week after this short lived cool spell coming up this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 I'm liking what the CFSv2 is showing for this month. It resembles the same cold pool of air up in Canada last year that unleashed the cold into the U.S. As the seasonal change in the jet stream begins to strengthen in time, we will see this pool of cold begin to dig deeper into the U.S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Models keep showing warmth rebuilding by next week after this short lived cool spell coming up this weekend.Not sure what models your looking at. Maybe the GFS, but the warmth will be a brief 2 day event before another major cold shot hits the region. 00z Euro and CFSv2 both seeing this. Euro brings in below normal temps for a good 5 day stretch after this coming weekend. Looks like it will warm again, with more cold building and brewing in NW Canada. If you believe in the LRC, this is the same NW Flow we have seen since last Fall. Except for maybe June and August, this has been the same pattern. Now as we begin to turn the corner and head into Autumn, the cool will come more frequently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 For those who are interested: Fairbanks, AK issued their first Winter Storm Warning this past Friday. Up to 14 inches of snow fell up that way in the mountain ranges. Last year Fairbanks received their first measurable snowfall Sept 18. This year they may break that date. October 1st is the average date. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 JB seeing what I'm seeing, I see he just posted a tweet on Twitter and noticing a huge rise in water temps in N Pacific. Major implications on Winter temps this year! Sign me up... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 I think the northern Plains (ND, SD) may have their first snow flakes come mid month. It would be very early for the season if that happens. I'm seeing some intense shots of cold coming down from Canada sometime mid/late month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 JB seeing what I'm seeing, I see he just posted a tweet on Twitter and noticing a huge rise in water temps in N Pacific. Major implications on Winter temps this year! Sign me up...Thats a warm gulf of alaska. Could that mean another ridge out there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 2, 2014 Report Share Posted September 2, 2014 Thats a warm gulf of alaska. Could that mean another ridge out there?If you take into account what happened last year, you betcha... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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