September 2014 observation and discussions

[gabel23]

When do the black hills usually get their first snow? Isn't this a bit early?

Oh yeah this is early, we are talking valentine and Chadron nebraska possibly getting some mixed with rain. I know for a fact that is very early for that area.

[Geos]

Is the CFSv2 starting to sniff out the end of the month cold shot???

 

Those are some big departures for September.

 

Feeling that chill right now. Dropping towards the mid 50s already.

 

The trees will respond to the cooler air. Color change is likely to come a bit early this year.

[james1976]

Currently cloudy and windy and 50 degrees at 9pm. Seems like Halloween, minus the leaves blowing around.

[Geos]

When do the black hills usually get their first snow? Isn't this a bit early?

 

Usually closer to October 1st!

[Tom]

Those are some big departures for September.

 

Feeling that chill right now. Dropping towards the mid 50s already.

 

The trees will respond to the cooler air. Color change is likely to come a bit early this year.

At this rate, I think we will have an early "peak" for leaves this year.  I remember last year all my leaves were down by Thanksgiving which you could say is right on schedule.  This year it may be mid November!

 

Definitely feeling the cool air coming in and dewpoints crashing.  Its going to be a chilly morning tomorrow.  I'm going Muskey fishing with my friend on the Chain O'Lakes Friday morning.  Should be fun if the showers don't hit.  Hope the fish bite even though a cold front is not ideal.

[james1976]

So late fall-like outside right now. Temps dropped all afternoon and the stratus deck was low and the wind was gusty. Local met has 54/37 for Friday and showers. Upper 50s for tomorrow as well. Only has 70 one day in the next seven. Normal high here is 78.

[Tom]

Off the 12z Euro ensembles...showing the lower hieghts near Japan around the 18-20th.  Utilizing the East Asian Theory, extrapolate 6-10 days and it fits towards the end of the month.

[Tom]

Here is something I found regarding the early snows out west...

 

…FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON RECORDED AT GREAT FALLS…

LIGHT SNOW FELL IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA BETWEEN 845 PM AND 1030 PM MDT ON SEPTEMBER 9.

THIS WAS THE EARLIEST SNOW AT GREAT FALLS SINCE 1992, WHEN SNOW FELL IN AUGUST. ONLY SIX YEARS SINCE 1892 HAVE SEEN SNOW EARLIER THAN SEPTEMBER 9. YEARS WITH ANY SNOW BEFORE SEPTEMBER 9 ARE AS FOLLOWS: 1992 AUGUST 22…1.7 INCHES 1985 SEPTEMBER 6…TRACE 1962 SEPTEMBER 2…TRACE 1961 SEPTEMBER 2…TRACE 1956 SEPTEMBER 2…TRACE 1901 SEPTEMBER 6…TRACE

http://www.markvoganweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/BxLWbUoIAAAfoaN.png

[Tom]

Should be interesting to see how long this Lake Effect rain event will last....ONLY if it was Winter time!!!!!

[Geos]

47° for a low temp today. It is still under 50° at this hour! Record low max in jeopardy today.

[Tom]

47° for a low temp today. It is still under 50° at this hour! Record low max in jeopardy today.

I think it is 61F at ORD, right???  Ya, stratus deck looks thick enough to hold on and keep temps from rising much.  We could have 2 consecutive days in the 50's if that holds!

[Geos]

I think it is 61F at ORD, right???  Ya, stratus deck looks thick enough to hold on and keep temps from rising much.  We could have 2 consecutive days in the 50's if that holds!

 

The temperature in Racine here actually fell a degree! 47° at 10:30 am. Average high is about 72°.

 

Look further to the north...

 

 

If it stays cloudy all day and decides to clear out at all, I could see the area getting into the 30s at night.

[Geos]

Not this subforum, but worth sharing. Snowfall for WY.

 

 

You can see some snow on the web cams in the Black Hills also.

 

http://www.allblackhills.com/webcams/

[Tom]

whats the temperature now??? 

Dude, go away...you seem to have an opinion on everyone else's post but NEVER post anything noteworthy on your own.  I think I speak for many on here, but you are getting annoying with your negativity and condescending remarks.

[NEJeremy]

whats the temperature now??? 

 

 

Dude, go away...you seem to have an opinion on everyone else's post but NEVER post anything noteworthy on your own.  I think I speak for many on here, but you are getting annoying with your negativity and condescending remarks.

 

Seriously guys- Ignore the troll!! Don't comment, reply, or acknowledge any post or thread or anything this 10 year old kid does. He'll get bored and go back to doing whatever trolls do when they don't get attention.

[Tom]

Not this subforum, but worth sharing. Snowfall for WY.

 

 

You can see some snow on the web cams in the Black Hills also.

 

http://www.allblackhills.com/webcams/

Parts of SD had their earliest snowfalls on record this year!  Is this a sign of things to come???  I think so!

[Geos]

Parts of SD had their earliest snowfalls on record this year!  Is this a sign of things to come???  I think so!

 

 

These links load a little nicer/quicker. Deadwood cam is really good!

 

http://rapidcityjournal.com/blackhills2go/webcams/

 

Still has yet to crack 50° at UGN, ENW, or RAC!

[Tom]

Only 52F at ORD at 3:00pm, models may bust high with temps today.  Pretty remarkable since some were saying temps couldn't get this cold.  Some outlying areas still stuck in the upper 40's.  Crazy.  We will most likely set a new record low max at ORD today.  Old record is 61F.

[Dan the Weatherman]

It is only in the low 50's in Chicago right now (3 p.m)? That is really chilly for this time of year! Meanwhile, here in inland Orange County, CA, it is in the low 90's, which is not out of the ordinary for early-mid September.

 

Even though I don't post often in this subforum since I live in Socal, I read it on a regular basis. I believe the Midwest could be in for a really cold fall and winter this year, especially if this pattern continues.

[Geos]

Todays high will be 53*! That's it. Today would be more typical of a day around Halloween!

 

Article on the cold in MT. http://iceagenow.info/2014/09/record-cold-montana/

[Tom]

It is only in the low 50's in Chicago right now (3 p.m)? That is really chilly for this time of year! Meanwhile, here in inland Orange County, CA, it is in the low 90's, which is not out of the ordinary for early-mid September.

 

Even though I don't post often in this subforum since I live in Socal, I read it on a regular basis. I believe the Midwest could be in for a really cold fall and winter this year, especially if this pattern continues.

Yup!  Only hit 56F...set a new record low max for the day.

 

I have a few friends that live in Huntington Beach and San Marcos, CA and they are enjoying the weather out that way for sure.  I concur with your assessment on this Fall and Winter.  Although, I do believe Socal will get their fair share of storminess this winter especially with all that warm water off the Mexico coast line and the possible El Nino forming.

[Tom]

Might have some convective lake effect showers tomorrow in to Saturday morning.  Man, I hope we have lake effect events like this in the Winter.  That could pile up the snows!

[james1976]

Only 56?? congrats on the new record!

[james1976]

8-14 day
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Tom]

On Skilling's weather segment he said that there haven't been back to back 50's this early in the season in 97 Years!  Craziness, the tale of shattering cold weather records of 2014 continues. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Yup!  Only hit 56F...set a new record low max for the day.

 

I have a few friends that live in Huntington Beach and San Marcos, CA and they are enjoying the weather out that way for sure.  I concur with your assessment on this Fall and Winter.  Although, I do believe Socal will get their fair share of storminess this winter especially with all that warm water off the Mexico coast line and the possible El Nino forming.

I certainly hope that you are right that we get some good storms this winter.

 

I was watching Tom Skilling tonight, and he said that the high of 56 in Chicago was the coldest high for this early in the season in 97 years (since 1917) if I heard that right.

[Tom]

8-14 day

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

I'm thinking the period between the 20-24th temps may bounce back to at or above normal before the cold reloads again closing out the month and into October.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Apparently one of our local stations, WISN12, must have mentioned snow in their forecast somewhere because I heard mention of it on a social media site. Nothing points toward that possibility, maybe a flurry will be seen since 850s are so chilly.

[Tom]

Rise and Shine!  Welcome to mid-November Chicago!  LOT mentioning temps might only get to low/mid 50's before dropping into the 40's as the re-enforcing trough with rain showers come into the area by the afternoon/evening.  If this is the pattern we are going to see this Fall, get ready!

 

Nice bounce in temps this weekend.  It's going to feel real nice after these below normal temps.  Might be one of the last nice boating weekends of the year!

[james1976]

Temp was 47 at 6am....now its 43. Rain showers continue. Likely gonna be a record low max over here today!

[Geos]

About to go from low 50s and clouds to 40s, rain and clouds! lol

 

This is nuts for 9/12!

[East Dubzz]

Ah I love this weather!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

If Milwaukee's Max ends up staying at 50, we will have set two record low maximums in a row by a combined 11F.

[james1976]

Just turned the furnace on. I don't ever remember doing that this early.

[james1976]

I'm in a Frost Advisory for tonight!

[Tom]

Just turned the furnace on. I don't ever remember doing that this early.

I'm debating to turn mine on today!  Only 63F in my house right now and I just got back from Muskey fishing.  We struck out today...D**n fish weren't biting.  We tried casting and trolling using some bucktails, spinners and top water action.  I felt like Mother Nature hit the fast forward button today.  I saw a ton of Geese heading south in their characteristic "V" shape hibernation run.  You don't see that too often in mid September.

[Tom]

This current cold spell could be rather unprecedented for how long of a stretch we see these 50's and 60's.  The next 7 days may not get above 70F!  That would be roughly an 8 day stretch of 10-20F below normal temps.  Last year this time ORD just finished a 3 day stretch of 90F.  What's that old saying...What a difference a year makes???  Crazy.

 

I can't wait to see what the JAMSTEC model shows for its September outlook.  The latest JMA is going gun-hoe on the NW NAMER ridge which just screams Polar Vortex.  JAMSTEC and CPC both point to an above normal precip outlook in our region through the Fall which according to LRC would repeat through out the Winter.  Nice combo to have Cold Air and Moisture!

[Geos]

Just turned the furnace on. I don't ever remember doing that this early.

 

I just turned it on too! It was 61° in here.

 

52° for the official high. Currently 45°, WC of 39°.

 

I noticed a handful of trees now are showing the first bits of color.

[Kevin]

I'm back! 50F here for a high in Milwaukee... new record low max.

 

 

I just gave in and turned the D**n heat on tonight. Couldn't take it anymore.

[Kevin]

Also, I need to start over at 1 post?! I was in the top 10 over at Western... this blows!